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Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

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A project to “green” desert areas with an innovative mix of technologies—producing food, biofuel, clean water, energy, and salt—reached a milestone this week in the Gulf state of Qatar. A pilot plant built by the Sahara Forest Project (SFP) produced 75 kilograms of vegetables per square meter in three crops annually, comparable to commercial farms in Europe, while consuming only sunlight and seawater. The heart of the SFP concept is a specially designed greenhouse. At one end, salt water is trickled over a gridlike curtain so that the prevailing wind blows the resulting cool, moist air over the plants inside. This cooling effect allowed the Qatar facility to grow three crops per year, even in the scorching summer. At the other end of the greenhouse is a network of pipes with cold seawater running through them. Some of the moisture in the air condenses on the pipes and is collected, providing a source of fresh water.

One of the surprising side effects of such a seawater greenhouse, seen during early experiments, is that cool moist air leaking out of it encourages other plants to grow spontaneously outside.
http://news.sciencemag.org/asiapacific/2013/11/desert-farming-experiment-yields-first-results?rss=1

What I love about ideas like that, (and experimenting with them), is that even if there was no danger from rising pollution rates, it's just such a fine idea. One thing there is no shortage of, and that is deserts, and salt water.
 
@aleCcowan,
Great post. You did a fantastic job of showing how even the most modern conventional no-till soybean production is not nor could ever be the solution, not even as good as "adding 4 or 5 mm of dried mulching" that any simple gardener could do. Most people really don't understand the reason nor the magnitude of how bad the current CAFO system of growing soy and corn for those animals really is, nor how relatively easy a more modern scientific management system that emphasizes carbon sequestration in the soil could potentially be in comparison. Your post does a seriously good job of explaining that in terms people can get their head around. Bravo!

There is one part of your post that puzzled me though. You realise why the soy can never even come close to being a solution, you realise how easy even the simpliest of techniques for adding carbon to soil, scaled up, will easily fix the problem, but then you back down because you think any solution must be perfect 100%? There is no middle ground between a chicken that only eats 100% outside grain inputs, to a chicken that eats 0% outside grain inputs? I can assure you that chickens and hogs do quite well with a mixture of foraged foods and a small % of grains as supplement. And this alone is a great improvement over the CAFO houses they are currently stuck in their entire lives. Cows on the other hand actually do far better on 100% pasture. So you can hold your standard of perfection as to absolutely no outside grain or soy inputs there. The sequestration potential of rotational grazing is significantly greater than your "adding 4 or 5 mm of dried mulching" example too. So that should easily absorb the imperfections you seem to find in raising a chicken with less inputs instead of zero inputs.

For your second part I thought I just did earlier. Maybe if I change it slightly, it will be easier for you to understand. Every soil is slightly different. But a reasonable factor for the weight of carbon in soil is : 0.58 tC/ha/cm/SOC%

In other words, for every % of SOC in every cm of depth in the soil you can expect .58 tons C per hectare. So get a soil test done. Take the % soil organic carbon, multiply by the depth of the soil in cm, multiply by .58 and the result is the tons SOC in your soil as a baseline. When you test again take the new % SOC and run it through the same formula and it will give you a rough idea of the total tons new sequestered carbon. So scaling it to the scale you want to understand it...... to get that 2 tons per hectare, you would have to increase the % SOC in the soil 1% to a depth of 4cm. (roughly) Not nearly as "impossible" as so many posters here seem to think, because they were mislead by irrelevant figures.

Please any of you math guys out there, correct me if I made a math error.
 
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@aleCcowan,
Great post. You did a fantastic job of showing how even the most modern conventional no-till soybean production is not nor could ever be the solution, not even as good as "adding 4 or 5 mm of dried mulching" that any simple gardener could do. Most people really don't understand the reason nor the magnitude of how bad the current CAFO system of growing soy for those animals really is, nor how relatively easy a more modern scientific management system that emphasizes carbon sequestration in the soil could potentially be in comparison. Your post does a seriously good job of explaining that in terms people can get their head around. Bravo!

No, my post doesn't because it doesn't relate with that. The photo linked there showed the carbon in plain sight. Hint, it's the green and brown parts in the figure. You are replying to that with just words, including these ones looking more like a promise: «how relatively easy a more modern scientific management system that emphasizes carbon sequestration in the soil could potentially be in comparison». That sounds like propaganda. And surely that is not information.

There is one part of your post that puzzled me though. You realise why the soy can never even come close to being a solution, you realise how easy even the simpliest of techniques for adding carbon to soil, scaled up, will easily fix the problem, but then you back down because you think any solution must be perfect 100%?

No, because any solution must go in the right direction, not in the wrong one, and that is enough, so no absolute was never in the plate. Months have gone and you continue to dissociate feeding mankind and ditching carbon in soils. You focus in one goal and suppose the other one fulfilled by means of a verbose prose and never by means of a careful analysis done simultaneously on both elements, containing mainly figures and not discourse. It's like you are talking all the time about what the powerpoint shows, but you forgot the powepoint at home, so it urges that you amend your ways while discussing here and show hard data while you are discussing it.

Cows on the other hand actually do far better on 100% pasture.

What do you think we eat here?

So you can hold your standard of perfection as to absolutely no grain or soy inputs there.

I don't hold that standard nor anything that I've said suggests in any way that I may do that. So stop adding imaginary elements to the conversation only to fuel rhetorical devices.

The sequestration potential of rotational grazing is significantly greater than your "adding 4 or 5 mm of dried mulching" example too.

No, it isn't at all. You want that to be true but figures tell the opposite. That's why your argumentations are as a general rule almost completely devoid of figures. Show us you're serious about the notions you promote, by using figures within your posts and not by linking anything and telling it says this and that -and not what it says-, the way you are doing with what I wrote.

So that should easily absorb the imperfections you seem to find in raising a chicken with less inputs instead of zero inputs.

You continue to imagine things that I'm supposed to have said. Besides, I'm well aware about the law of conservation of energy. Are you?

So far, I have to tell you, if you didn't understand what I wrote and why I wrote it, you could've asked about it instead of repeatedly asserting what's not there explicitly or implied.

For your second part I thought I just did earlier. Maybe if I change it slightly, it will be easier for you to understand. Every soil is slightly different. But a reasonable factor for the weight of carbon in soil is : 0.58 tC/ha/cm/SOC%

In other words, for every % of SOC in every cm of depth in the soil you can expect .58 tons per hectare. So get a soil test done. Take the % soil organic carbon, multiply by the depth of the soil in cm, multiply by .58 and the result is the tons SOC in your soil as a baseline. When you test again take the new % SOC and run it through the same formula and it will give you a rough idea of the total tons new sequestered carbon. So scaling it to the scale you want to understand it...... to get that 2 tons per hectare, you would have to increase the % SOC in the soil 1% to a depth of 4cm. (roughly) Not nearly as "impossible" as so many posters here seem to think, because they were mislead by irrelevant figures.

Please any of you math guys out there, correct me if I made a math error.

Your problems with math are the least of them. A 1% of carbon in 1cm of soil is 0.18 to 0.21 kg. Your 0.57 is by inch and not centimetre, and that is considering amorphous carbon to be almost as dense as graphite.

But, letting the math wad appart, the problem is that you are not addressing my question at all but it would seem like you were looking for some loophole instead, I hope not. To put it in the simplest of terms, it is like I said: "I have 8 million dollars and I want to have 20 million dollars in one year from now, explain me how can I get that money?" and you're just replying "you have to get one million a month; look at your bank account at the end of the period and subtract what you had at the beginning of the period; the difference is what you have earned."

Again, show how 2 tons of carbon are gained in the soil in a 365-day period while doing, for instance, 100% grass fed bovines. Don't forget to set a value both for carbon content in the soil and yearly degradation of humus content. Justify your figures. Of course, forgot about buying bales of hay elsewhere. You have just your soil, rain and sunlight ... and mooing legged racks of ribs in the making, of course.
 
In other words Savory is being very conservative in his figures.
Actually Savory is being very ignorant in his figures because they are based on the act of taking a one time change in grazing methods that sequesters an extra 1 ton per acre once and then repeating this change which has already happened for 40 years :eek:.
 
Please any of you math guys out there, correct me if I made a math error.

The guys from RealClimate that say you are wrong include some of the top math wonks /climate modelers in the world AND are exceptionally well informed on carbon
 
No that is an annual figure.
That is a mention of tons dry matter per acre in Pastures for profit: A guide to rotational grazing
Rotational grazing also can increase the amount of forage harvested per acre over continuous grazing by as much as 2 tons dry matter per acre.
to do with the change from continuous grazing to rotational grazing.
In hindsight is it probably annual.

This has nothing to do with the sequestration of CO2 except in the sense that CO2 is stored in that dry matter. However you and Savory seemed to forgotten about the other half of the CO2 cycle - CO2 in vegetation gets converted into other greenhouse gases, e.g. it is eaten and converted into methane then excreted, decomposes and more gases emitted.

Thus that CO2 sequestration in dry matter is "one" time only because it eventually gets out again (as methane if I am right). It does not sit in the dry matter forever. Of course we could always just store this dry matter in suitable conditions, e.g. maybe fill up the Carlsbad Caverns with it :D.

ETA2: A good explanation of the CO2/soil cycle is at Soil Carbon Storage.

If you want a scientific opinion about what soil sequestration can do (and its costs) look at this new article Peak Water, Peak Oil…Now, Peak Soil?
The world’s 3.4 billion ha of rangeland and pastures has the potential to sequester or absorb up to 10 percent of the annual carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels and cement production, estimates Ólafur Arnalds, a soil scientist at the Agricultural University of Iceland.

ETA: Another bit of the equation: What is happening to inorganic carbon in soils?
They look to be decreasing in China
Widespread decreases in topsoil inorganic carbon stocks across China's grasslands during 1980s-2000s - Yang et al. (2012)
but not always lost to the atmosphere: "redistributed to the deeper soil layer, and transferred to the nearby regions".
 
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http://news.sciencemag.org/asiapacific/2013/11/desert-farming-experiment-yields-first-results?rss=1

What I love about ideas like that, (and experimenting with them), is that even if there was no danger from rising pollution rates, it's just such a fine idea. One thing there is no shortage of, and that is deserts, and salt water.
I remember reading about this idea some years ago; thanks for the update. The potential is indeed remarkable and there are no downsides that occur to me (a long-practicing cynic).
 
That is a mention of tons dry matter per acre in Pastures for profit: A guide to rotational grazing

to do with the change from continuous grazing to rotational grazing.
In hindsight is it probably annual.

This has nothing to do with the sequestration of CO2 except in the sense that CO2 is stored in that dry matter. However you and Savory seemed to forgotten about the other half of the CO2 cycle - CO2 in vegetation gets converted into other greenhouse gases, e.g. it is eaten and converted into methane then excreted, decomposes and more gases emitted.

Thus that CO2 sequestration in dry matter is "one" time only because it eventually gets out again (as methane if I am right). It does not sit in the dry matter forever.
Actually no one has forgotten about the carbon cycle and the carbon in harvested dry matter is is only an indicator of what is happening under the ground. In fact it is the unseen effect of the grassland shedding root material each time the above ground vegetative material is harvested that is the primary part of the plant that ends up being sequestered as humus underground. Yes, you are correct, the harvested material above ground is not sequestered, but instead enters the short term carbon cycle.

I just wish once, one of you professional skeptics out there would at least try and put your skeptical analysis to the absurd claims in those ridiculous blogs made by people dead set against carbon sequestration in the soil. (due to their Luddite like clinging to the antiquated CAFO system) Savory is unbelievably conservative in his claims, proved it in his Project Hope which won the Buckminster Fuller award, taught others how to do it on over 5 million acres, and the skeptics are riding all over him instead of the ridiculous claims it can't work, that even a child can easily see through. Sometimes I wonder whats going on.

I'll give it one more try. Dan Dagget has taken the concept to such an extreme that I can't even imagine a tougher test. Mine tailings that are completely devoid of all plant growth in dry conditions but subject to deep erosion during the few rains in season. It is a much tougher test than simply improving a pasture that was already pretty good, like what Undersander proved.

Convincing Evidence
 
I don't know how anyone can take information seriously when it comes from a website with such poor design, haha.

http://www.maninnature.com/Climate/index.html

Like, wow. I'd see something like that linked on a page and I'd go and get my information from elsewhere. But that's just me.

Actually I agree. The web design and some of the other links are pretty lame. But keep in mind these guys all rejected this:

link

And the advantage of the lame webpage is that while the page is weak, anyone who doesn't believe the content can easily check it, because it has become a standard practice. While I haven't driven by to see that particular mine, I have seen several others. Even some mining companies have started advertising they use holistic management for their PR campaigns. It may be some new secret thing that some people never heard of till Savory did his Ted Talk, but it is pretty commonly known in the right circles around here. Doesn't mean everyone uses it, but it is far more common than many people think. I don't know a single rancher here in Oklahoma who hasn't heard of it and most have at least thought about experimenting with it. Not because of a Ted Talk or a web site or a skeptic forum, because they talked to a neighbor. There is a learning curve though. Not everyone gets it right first try. That's part of the reason for links like the University of Wisconsin-Extension page and the The United States Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service (USDA-NRCS) and NCAT-ATTRA seminars that have been popping up all over. Education is the key. It one thing to say it could be done, quite another to actually train people to successfully accomplish it.
 
More research in lieu of action has been disastrous, but that doesn't devalue the research itself.

I did not intend to suggest it devalued the research.

I did intend to suggest that the "we need more research" ploy used as a "delaying any action at the moment" tactic was alive and well; disingenuous and potentially dangerous.
 
...snipped a bit of wall of text that ignored what I wrote!...
The point you are still ignoring is this 2 tons dry matter per acre that is harvested in Pastures for profit: A guide to rotational grazing is not sequestration by itself because that dry matter will be eventually decompose and release that CO2. What you get is a "one time" storage of CO2 consisting of the difference between the harvesting and the decomposition. This is not 2 tons dry matter per acre per year. It is X tons dry matter per acre where X is bigger than 2 but not infinite.
Another point is that this 2 tons dry matter per acre harvested is unlikely to be the sequestration of CO2 in soil organic matter that Savory is going on about in Restoring the climate ("If we were to capture 1 ton of carbon per acre per year")
Convincing Evidence is a fairly irrelevant anecdote. No sequestration of CO2 is mentioned or measured. Of course the increase in vegetation on the mine tailings means there will be a bit of sequestration in that vegetation.
It is actually commonsense:
Put cattle on contaminated land, especially steep terrain such as mine tailings. Their hooves will churn up the soil. Rain will leach out the contaminants faster than if the cattle were not there. Vegetation will reestablish itself faster.
​
So now all we have to do is put cattle on the millions of hectares of mine tailings and global warming is fixed :rolleyes:!
P.S. this is not a thread on farming techniques, Red Baron Farms, so perhaps we should try to keep closer to the subject of global warming.
 
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Ihttp://www.maninnature.com/Climate/index.html

Like, wow. I'd see something like that linked on a page and I'd go and get my information from elsewhere. But that's just me.
The "like wow" moment for me was that citation to Senator James Inhofe and his speech to Congress in 2006. That was basically a tirade about media coverage of the issue along with repetitions of typical warming denier themes like the global cooling myth.

Like, wow. You can get rid of the science about global warming by concentrating on the media coverage, politics, and plush toys :rolleyes:!
 
But keep in mind these guys all rejected this:

link
Rejecting science would be a big problem for those "guys" (the web page authors?).
Grazing management impacts on vegetation, soil biota and soil chemical, physical and hydrological properties in tall grass prairie
This study documents the positive results for long-term maintenance of resources and economic viability by ranchers who use adaptive management and MP grazing relative to those who practice continuous season-long stocking.
 
I'm sorry, but I have to say that I eagerly started to read about "rotational grazing" ... just to find that it is what we're doing here since the last third of the nineteenth century. Everyone knows here what a potrero is (paddock that is within a rotation) and what is a campo de invernada (winter paddocks). Do they do it in a different way in other countries? Is it even possible? I'm amazed.

Please, tell me that I jumped to a conclusion and they're not trying to invent the wheel.

What I also know that such rotational grazing is made to maximize the output -here is called "kilos de novillo por hectárea al año" (kg of bullock per hectare and year)- and that can keep the carbon content in the soil but not as a goal by itself. In fact, the major risk for local soil to deteriorate is taking grazing lands and forests to start cultivating crops to produce biofuels to export to guilty-conscious countries. That crappy activity is already adding lots of CO2 to the atmosphere and its environmental benefits are seen only many years before when soil deterioration is advanced and the soil carbon content is asymptotically converging to a sad shame.
 
I remember reading about this idea some years ago; thanks for the update. The potential is indeed remarkable and there are no downsides that occur to me (a long-practicing cynic).

We critically discussed that here a year or two ago. Again, that project is just for show. For instance, the volume of fresh water obtained by desalinization is expected to rise from 60 million cubic metres a day in 2010 to 130 million cubic metres a day in 2016 (more than a half of the average discharge of River Nile when it enters Egypt) . The average cost is dropping from some .55 to .60 usd to .45-.50 per cubic metre. Saudi Arabia is at the top of this trend, and Algeria contributes some 5 or 6% of it. That means Gtons of fresh water consumed by big coastal cities freed for agricultural activities and lots of new irrigation projects in the deserts.

Compared to that, those 600 square metres pale.
 
I'm sorry, but I have to say that I eagerly started to read about "rotational grazing" ... just to find that it is what we're doing here since the last third of the nineteenth century.....
Ditto for here in New Zealand.
My guess is the continuous grazing practice in the US is a historical accident, i.e. the ranches were so big that they just did not bother subdividing into paddocks and let cattle wander.
 
We critically discussed that here a year or two ago. Again, that project is just for show. For instance, the volume of fresh water obtained by desalinization is expected to rise from 60 million cubic metres a day in 2010 to 130 million cubic metres a day in 2016 (more than a half of the average discharge of River Nile when it enters Egypt) . The average cost is dropping from some .55 to .60 usd to .45-.50 per cubic metre. Saudi Arabia is at the top of this trend, and Algeria contributes some 5 or 6% of it. That means Gtons of fresh water consumed by big coastal cities freed for agricultural activities and lots of new irrigation projects in the deserts.
Irrigation by river-water causes salination in arid regions (look what happened to Mesopotamia, and more recently around Aswan in Egypt). This project doesn't have that problem, and is itself desalination anyway. The fact that it's an integrated unit makes it attractive to investors, especially if used to grow high-value crops such as vegetables. I don't have the numbers (or patience :)) to do a cost-benefit analysis, and this is just one pilot, but it has potential. Worth watching, I think.

An aspect which interests me is that it creates an artifical environment - a market-garden in a box, essentially. I think we're going to need more of that as the natural environment goes to pot around us. Thinking of which, a lot of good pot is already grown in artificial environments ... :cool:
 
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