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Continuation Part Six: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

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davefoc said:
When you say Guede had Nike Outbreak 2 shoes, how is that known? Is it an assumption based on the idea that Guede was the perpetrator or was it proved that Guede had this kind of shoe?
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A box for this shoes (or better the box they came in ;)) was found at his place...
 
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acbytesla said:
I'm not sure you can expect the Carabinieri forensic scientists to be overly critical of Stefanoni regardless of their personal opinions of her work. They very well may see Stefanoni as "one of them" and the defense lawyers as the enemy. My bet is that they will be inclined to "defend" someone in the same line of work. While I think the lawyers may be able to delve into the need for extreme safeguards when work with LCN DNA. But the one thing I do know for sure, is that you don't want to ask a question unless you know what the answer is going to be. Trying to attack Stefanoni this way is potentially very dangerous.
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The Carabinieri are not fond of the municipal police. I'd bet that they will boast of their superior knowledge and better equipped labs.

While there is some danger I would take the chance and agree with LJ on this. I don't think they would answer well crafted questions about proper protocols in a way that would embarrass them. Asking about collection protocol and testing that is clearly violated by the local cops doesn't seem risky.

acbytesla said:
OK, you're right. It doesn't prove that it wasn't blood, but then again, the Luminol doesn't prove that it is. Both tests are "presumptive". One test suggest it might be, the other test suggests that it isn't.

STILL SEEMS LIKE A TIE and the score is ZERO.
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The second test suggests that it probably isn't or very diluted.

If they had done the conformation tests we would know.

The defense doesn't and shouldn't have to prove it's not blood while the prosecution must prove it is her footprints and left that night or morning.

This isn't football.
 
Grinder said:
Raf hardly spend more time with Meredith than Rudy spent with Amanda. In one case they are friends but in the other they only met once. :p
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Actually, this is not true. Meredith met Raffaele the day Amanda met him. They also were together the afternoon of November 1. Raffaele and Amanda had lunch or late breakfast with Meredith. Still, I get your point. But that doesn't mean that Raf didn't felt a connection with Meredith and a wish to say good bye when he was in England.


Grinder said:
I object to the anti-gay people showing up at funerals of military dead and I think that the wishes of the family concerning the grave of a loved one trumps the wishes of others. At least they didn't need to make it public.
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I do too Grinder, but this is hardly the same. The anti gay people want to "disrupt" the memorials. They are protesting. The same cannot be said about Raffaele. While I do agree that it was probably a mistake for Raf's father from mentioning it, I don't think it was wrong in any way for Raf to visit and pay his respects.
 
RoseMontague said:
He also admitted he was wearing them at the cottage in his 4th statement as listed in his final motivation report by the ISC.
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This one?
Page 8 of the translation:
On May 15th a fourth interrogation took place, solicited by Guede, following the order issued by the Court of Cassation in the formally opened de libertate proceeding: there, he said that he was wearing Nike shoes, corresponding to the empty shoe box found during the search of his flat in via del Canerino, compatible with some of the shoeprints found in the house in via della Pergola, above all with one found near Meredith Kercher's body.
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Thanks, that was my understanding from Raffaele's book. Same brand of shoe. He describes vividly the excitement of the police during his interrogation when they saw that the shoes he happened to wear that night had concentric circles on the bottom.

Until they went to get that lost bra clasp, those concentric circles were the only physical evidence tying him to the murder scene -- which is why his dad went on television to show the world the difference between his shoes and the ones Guede was wearing.

Thx for the picture -- hadn't seen that before.
 
Grinder said:
The Carabinieri are not fond of the municipal police. I'd bet that they will boast of their superior knowledge and better equipped labs.

While there is some danger I would take the chance and agree with LJ on this. I don't think they would answer well crafted questions about proper protocols in a way that would embarrass them. Asking about collection protocol and testing that is clearly violated by the local cops doesn't seem risky.



The second test suggests that it probably isn't or very diluted.

If they had done the conformation tests we would know.

The defense doesn't and shouldn't have to prove it's not blood while the prosecution must prove it is her footprints and left that night or morning.

This isn't football.
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You're right Grinder, this isn't football. If it was my quarterback would have been running for his life. (But we would still somehow win the game)

With all due respect Grinder, the argument that the TMB test produced a false negative just doesn't hold up to scrutiny. There is a reason that this test is performed and it has little to do with sensitivity. It has to do with specificity. It is a highly sensitive test itself and given how brightly the Luminol reacted showing the shoe prints suggests that it wasn't highly diluted blood but another substance entirely.

The "gap" between a highly diluted blood sample reacting positively to Luminol and reacting negatively is extremely small and VERY UNLIKELY. While still possible dismissing the NEGATIVE TMB test without a positive confirmatory test is NEVER called for.

So really it's more like
Luminol 7
TMB 67
 
RoseMontague said:
Yes. Let me ask you. Do you think the shoes shown in this CCTV screen capture are Nike Outbreak 2's?
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Is this person wearing shoes?? :boggled:
Is he wearing pants?? :boggled:

It looks to me like his rear pant leg is cut off just below the knee.
 
kwill said:
I've been thinking of a related set of questions.

- what exactly are Amanda and Raffaele allowed to do while the Italian courts send the case for a decade or more through the necessary paces?

- can they marry, have children, travel, get jobs? Must they refuse to engage with public life, or is there a set of constraints that would be recognized as reasonable in these circumstances?

- would the rules be different if the case weren't so long and they weren't so young?
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Raffaele has said he can not sustain a relationship, or get a job that comes remotely close to paying legal fees because of this process. When he travels he is scrutinised and ridiculed especially by the PMF people.
 
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acbytesla said:
You're right Grinder, this isn't football. If it was my quarterback would have been running for his life. (But we would still somehow win the game)

With all due respect Grinder, the argument that the TMB test produced a false negative just doesn't hold up to scrutiny. There is a reason that this test is performed and it has little to do with sensitivity. It has to do with specificity. It is a highly sensitive test itself and given how brightly the Luminol reacted showing the shoe prints suggests that it wasn't highly diluted blood but another substance entirely.

The "gap" between a highly diluted blood sample reacting positively to Luminol and reacting negatively is extremely small and VERY UNLIKELY. While still possible dismissing the NEGATIVE TMB test without a positive confirmatory test is NEVER called for.

So really it's more like
Luminol 7
TMB 67
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There's a reason why they followed up the luminol with the TMB. They get a lot more false positives than false negatives, and if they're not sure, they can use morphology, which they didn't bother to do in this case because they realized it was crap. But they used it in court anyway, because they needed something and they didn't have anything that wasn't crap.

Machiavelli can take advantage of the fact that none of us are experts to post luminol drivel that experts would ridicule. Leila did the same thing with her cargo cult DNA analysis on IIP, until DNA experts joined the discussion.

I've got a stack of crime books that mention luminol and Kastle-Meyer red herrings. The few cases where these tests are useful involve crime scenes where a body was removed, or where someone mopped an entire kitchen/bathroom to remove all the visible blood evidence. And the police damn well have lab work that proves it is blood.
 
RoseMontague said:
No I think that is just the lighting. Do we know what color Rudy's shoes were?
Did they look like this??

http://i1.hoopchina.com.cn/user/580/623580/12809306619e7e8.jpg
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I think we don't, there are quite a few "Outbreak 2" models out there, I haven't found a picture of the box, yet (could be helpful with the colour question)
For the link, I get a 403 :((forbidden)

ETA: The picture is from this "video" http://www.oggi.it/video/notizie/2012/03/05/caso-di-perugia-il-video-mai-visto-di-rudy-guede/
 
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Methos said:
Same brand (Nike), different model, Rudy Guede had Nike "Outbreak 2" (6 circles) identified by the box they came in found at his place, while Raffaele Sollecito had "Air Force One Low" shoes (11 circles).
The picture is from Prof. Vinci's presentation.

[qimg]http://www.injusticeanywhereforum.com/gallery/image.php?mode=medium&album_id=33&image_id=385[/qimg]
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Worth re-iterating, thanks.

You'd think this is rocket surgery, the way it's sometimes discussed, when it couldn't be more facile.

Facile it may be, but still beyond Rinaldi and the suckers who bought his crap.

(Or was Rinaldi just a lying liar?)
 
CoulsdonUK said:
Mary_H

Don’t quiet see the parallel between visiting a city of half a million people vs visiting the grave of someone who was brutally murdered.

As ever I am happy for folks to read our posts and make up their own minds up. I think we should just leave the Kercher family and friends to deal with their loss as they wish to; privately.
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Such noble sentiments.

ETA >> Nah - bollocks. Totally bogus.
 
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