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Thought Experiment: world without fossil fuels

There's at least one additional cost you didn't include in your analysis. Aside from competition for wood (no small thing), there's also the missing fact that the cost to harvest and transport the wood will also go up drastically without fossil fuels. You can't have a steam-powered chain saw.

Coppices are not harvested with chainsaws, they're harvested with things like combine-harvesters that drive along a row of trees with a blade. Here's a modern example:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SB4l-DklLEI

(And of course if you reduce that to just the cut-down-the-coppice part, minus the big chipper/blower, it's simpler.) That runs on whatever power source you have---mobile woodgas engines, stationary steam engines pulling winches, stationary steam engines supplying pneumatic or hydraulic hoses, hydroelectricity, whatever.
 
There's at least one additional cost you didn't include in your analysis. Aside from competition for wood (no small thing), there's also the missing fact that the cost to harvest and transport the wood will also go up drastically without fossil fuels. You can't have a steam-powered chain saw. People will have to cut down (and chop up) the wood with axes, and probably transport it with horses, and all of that is going to add a LOT to labor costs which are currently pretty low. I don't know what number to put on all that, but I suspect it's not negligible for your purposes.

Not to be argumentative, I just find this topic interesting, but I could see a way to have a reasonably effective steam chainsaw. Drop a portable (horse drawn) steam engine in a copse of trees with a plate from the drive that moves 90 degrees and back parallel to the ground. Attach several cutting chains to the circumference of the plate so that they pull several feet. Attach springs on the outside ends of the cutting chains, pulleys and weights could also be used.

Now you just run the cutting chains partially around the base of the trees, anchor the spring ends and run the engine, with proper safety lines cut several trees at one time. Anchors could be repositioned to cut felled trees. WAG :)
 
Without fossil fuels, I find it hard tro see how large scale industrial chemistry would be practicable.
Things like the Haber Process for making ammonia and synthetic fertilisers.
No fertilisers, no population explosion.
With no coal, oil or gas, I'd guess global population would be below 1800 levels- under 1 billion.
No bad thing, maybe- but life expectancy would probably be 1800's levels too.
 
Without fossil fuels, I find it hard tro see how large scale industrial chemistry would be practicable.
Things like the Haber Process for making ammonia and synthetic fertilisers.
No fertilisers, no population explosion.
With no coal, oil or gas, I'd guess global population would be below 1800 levels- under 1 billion.
No bad thing, maybe- but life expectancy would probably be 1800's levels too.
That's a fallacy. While it is true that Haber Process did make nitrogen fertilizers cheap, it is far from required to increase production. In fact it isn't even the best way to increase production, and that's been well known now for well over 70 years.

The real reason Haber process was used was to support the military industrial complex. Haber process Nitrogen is also a key component to explosives. Having a product your industrial military complex can manufacture during peacetime means that same industry is available for full war time production at a moments notice without having to build as many new manufacturing facilities. Less lag time is important to military planners.
 
Maybe the Industrial Revolution in England began the very moment someone carried a bucket of coal into London and said, "what can we do with this stuff?", but the early Industrial Revolution in the U.S. was well underway before coal was a major factor, powered by water and wood. Equating the Industrial Revolution with coal is like equating the Internet with digital video.

Some more quotes from Wiki:
The Industrial Revolution was the transition to new manufacturing processes in the period from about 1760 to some time between 1820 and 1840.
That's your "first two decades of the 1800s" out of the way to begin with. That's the end of the industrial revolution. There are laws regarding the treatment of coal miners dating back to the early 1600s.

As for what industry was revolutionised:
Wiki said:
Iron making – The substitution of coke for charcoal greatly lowered the fuel cost of pig iron and wrought iron production.[19] Using coke also allowed larger blast furnaces

A major change in the metal industries during the era of the Industrial Revolution was the replacement of wood and other bio-fuels with coal. For a given amount of heat, coal required much less labor to mine than cutting wood
Note in particular that it's not just energy density that matters, one of the important points is that coal requires much less labour than wood. Charcoal, having an extra step, would of course require even more.

Wiki said:
Mining
Steam power
Both already mentioned.

Wiki said:
Machine tools
The Industrial Revolution created a demand for metal parts used in machinery. This led to the development of several machine tools for cutting metal parts...
The first large machine tool was the cylinder boring machine used for boring the large-diameter cylinders on early steam engines.
Again, we see the importance of metal, which would not be anywhere near as prevalent without coal, and the fact that coal-based technology was the initial driving force in the development of new technology.

Wiki said:
Gas lighting
the large scale introduction of this was the work of William Murdoch, an employee of Boulton and Watt, the Birmingham steam engine pioneers. The process consisted of the large scale gasification of coal in furnaces[/quote]
Coal again.

Wiki said:
Agriculture

The invention of machinery played a big part in driving forward the British Agricultural Revolution. Agricultural improvement began in the centuries before the Industrial revolution got going and it may have played a part in freeing up labour from the land to work in the new industrial mills of the 18th century. As the revolution in industry progressed a succession of machines became available which increased food production with ever fewer labourers.

Machinery -> metal -> coal once again.

Equating the Industrial Revolution with coal is like equating the Internet with the availability of wires.

Anyhow, kind of tired of answering the "The canals were used to transport coal so they wouldn't have existed without coal" argument over and over.

Yes, not having everyone instantly agree with every word you say can be so tiresome. I mean, you've already made a whole two posts on the subject, why can't everyone just shut up about it? What is this, some kind of discussion forum?
 
No coal means no (pig) iron production of any scale or quality. No iron production means no steel production of any scale or quality. No steel production of any scale means no....

....well just about everything that you can think of in the modern world.

Without coke (from coal) fired blast furnaces you'd be reliant on charcoal which simply doesn't allow the same efficiency and is far more expensive and labour intensive to produce than coal too.

Lots of other smelting processes for other metals require large amounts of energy that could only be supplied by coal, eg copper

Without sufficient technology to develop electricity and hydroelectric power then you'd live in a world without aluminium and it's alloys too.

Basically coal drives everything and still does today.
 
No coal means no (pig) iron production of any scale or quality. No iron production means no steel production of any scale or quality. No steel production of any scale means no....

....well just about everything that you can think of in the modern world.

Without coke (from coal) fired blast furnaces you'd be reliant on charcoal which simply doesn't allow the same efficiency and is far more expensive and labour intensive to produce than coal too.

Lots of other smelting processes for other metals require large amounts of energy that could only be supplied by coal, eg copper

Without sufficient technology to develop electricity and hydroelectric power then you'd live in a world without aluminium and it's alloys too.

Basically coal drives everything and still does today.

But one notes that the Romans managed to produce fair quality steel without coal. Certainly coal allows for industrial quantities of steel.
So all we require is an energy source that can provide enough heat.

It is probable that electricity and the nuclear model of the atom could be discovered even without the coal driven industrial revolution we saw. It would take longer, granted. However once discovered and developed, electrical production from wind and hydro could then drive an industrial revolution similar to ours. Soon after(say 200 years) would come nuclear power, and a second much stronger international revolution in trade as ships would no longer rely on sail.

In short, copper, bronze and iron age similar to ours . tech advancing to about the level we saw in 1700.
Sail tech advances and allows international trade to increase.
Organic fueled steam power is developed perhaps with specialty fuel crops high in volatile oils grown in large plots of marginally arable land.
Scientific advances discover the electric field which leads to the creation of wind and hydroelectric generation.
Electrification drives an industrial revolution using electric heat to smelt copper and aluminum and perhaps even iron.
Nuclear power comes into being and allows faster and more reliable international trade and travel.
Chemistry advances allow new materials to be developed, including rocket fuels, which in turn allows space flight.

The slower growth after 1700 allows diplomacy to overcome political and religious warfare prior to the time of fast, reliable, international transport which lessens the probability of a world war and thus lessens the impetus to develop nuke weaponry.

Warfare becomes a thing of the past and all countries live in diplomatically mediated peace and harmony. Birds sing and butterflies flutter.:D
 
The slower growth after 1700 allows diplomacy to overcome political and religious warfare prior to the time of fast, reliable, international transport which lessens the probability of a world war and thus lessens the impetus to develop nuke weaponry.

Warfare becomes a thing of the past and all countries live in diplomatically mediated peace and harmony. Birds sing and butterflies flutter.:D

If it's anything like the covers on those Jehovah's Witnesses magazines then it gets my vote. "War is too energy intensive. Let's just learn to get along" :)
 
But one notes that the Romans managed to produce fair quality steel without coal. Certainly coal allows for industrial quantities of steel.
So all we require is an energy source that can provide enough heat.
Many societies did produce good quality* steel, but it's very expensive and only available in very limited quantities. Limited quantities means it just isn't available to be used for anything other than very specific, niche uses. And that really is the problem - so many other technologies rely on a number of other technologies to come to fruition (Sid Meier's Civilization) that removing or really hindering a single but very important technology stops the tech tree from continuing.

The thing about affordable iron and steel is that all of a sudden you've got a material that can be used in numerous applications - that availability and affordability drives innovation and hence technology.

*quality is relative - steel produced 100 years ago using cutting edge tech is considered very poor and dirty (impurities/inclusions/slag) even by standards 40 years ago let alone today.

Coal is not only cheaper and more energy dense than charcoal, but also allows for far greater temperatures in the" stack" which improves reaction rates and overall efficiency (converts more iron oxide to iron for a given weight of ore). Higher temperatures also mean that more impurities are removed due to slag fluidity and higher reaction rates. Coke (sintered coal) is also far stronger physically than charcoal so you can stack a greater amount of charge (iron ore/limestone/coke) which again improves efficiency.

It also provides the carbon for reduction of the iron oxide.

Now of course we could use a carbon substitute to reduce the ore but getting that heat is the problem. Approximately 45% of all electricity generation in the UK is based on burning coal as I type. There really isn't any other fuel that I can think of that can produce the heat required in such quantity so easily without advanced technology to a) mine/extract it b) use it.

Don't forget that extraction and processing is only half the story. You also need power to manipulate (forging, cutting, stamping, grinding etc) the material you are producing. It's fine to cast iron into shapes ready for use in a design, but how do you join the stuff? Rivets still require heat to increase their malleability and ductility. We'll leave arc welding for the time being!

It all comes down to that all important heat.

It is probable that electricity and the nuclear model of the atom could be discovered even without the coal driven industrial revolution we saw. It would take longer, granted.
Electricity took something like 300 hundred years (from roughly 1600 to 1900) to go from a scientific novelty to a daily reality and start to impact people's lives. Even then you could add another 50 years tio that figure for the impact to be universal in the western world. I don't really see how the lack of coal could be too much of a hindrance to discovery. Lead, copper and acids (battery) can all be produced without coal and scale isn't a problem so I agree that scientific discovery isn't a problem.

However, once again we come up against the difference between discovery and use; science and engineering. It's fine to discover something, but it requires a whole load of other factors to be present for a new discovery to produce any benefit and hence; the modern world.

Lets say you have enough iron/steel/brass/copper/bronze to produce a steam engine (running no fossil fuel) and motor which in turn produces electricity. Now imagine if there was absolutely no way to transmit that power because there was no way of producing enough copper to make the cables because there's no fossil fuels to smelt the copper in the first place. So what do you do? Well you use your new steam engine to produce electricity to smelt the copper! What does your steam engine run on again?

The electric light bulb may well have been invented and demonstrated but there is just no way that anyone can afford the link between the generator and bulb.

However once discovered and developed, electrical production from wind and hydro could then drive an industrial revolution similar to ours. Soon after(say 200 years) would come nuclear power, and a second much stronger international revolution in trade as ships would no longer rely on sail.
Not a hope in hell. Nowhere near enough power. Not even today would that be possible.

You simply cannot extract enough energy from wind to get anywhere near enough power to start powering electric arc furnaces for steel making without first going through the industrial revolution and 20th century advances that provide the infrastructure for wind power to be distributed to such facilities in the first place.

How are you going to produce the steel towers, the steel bolts without first having a steel industry in place? What is powering that industry?

How are you going to build the concrete bases (yes I know the Romans had concrete) without a concrete industry? How do you even transport the concrete to the site when the internal combustion engine isn't mass produced and the vehicle to haul the concrete to site is made of iron/steel that cannot be produced in any quantity?

How are you going to manufacture the gearbox? The gearbox is going to transmit power from the blades but this requires advanced technology, mechanical engineering, manufacturing engineering, electrical engineering, materials engineering, control engineering. mass production, process control, quality control, etc, etc.

Then you've got the blades which aren't made from metals or alloys. Where does the advance in non-metallic materials come from? How is it possible to develop composite material technology with such a limited understanding of materials in general because the sciences of metallurgy and chemistry haven't advanced? How can you go from cotton and hemp cloth to glass and carbon fibre reinforced composites without some form of academic/technological/engineering structure and the society that provides it?

Hydro-elecric power in Canada is one of the reasons why Aluminium and it's many alloys is so prevalent today. Cheap electricity close to the source of ore is a massive bonus. However, you need sufficient technological advancement to be able to take advantage of a natural resource.

How would it be possible to produce the dams without enough mass transport or concrete (which is an energy intensive product to make) anyway? How do you produce all of the machinery in the turbine halls to produce the power and then distribute it when you are limited by your fuel source for producing precision engineered components?

How do you use hydro when there aren't any sufficiently good sites?

A world limited to wind and water power without a resource that provides cheap energy would stagnate. There is just no way that such a world can make the leap to advanced technology using wind and water power alone. It's energy starved.

I'd love it all to be milk and honey, but the truth is, without fossil fuels we'd never be typing our posts.
 
Yes, not having everyone instantly agree with every word you say can be so tiresome. I mean, you've already made a whole two posts on the subject, why can't everyone just shut up about it? What is this, some kind of discussion forum?


But you're not actually disagreeing with me; you're just listing how coal historically was used over the course of the industrial revolution. Of course a lot of developments of the industrial revolution depended on coal. That doesn't mean that nothing would have happened without coal. Asking what would have happened without coal is the thread topic. For example, in the late 1770's, King George III would have had to send wooden ships full of grenadiers and Hessians to try to quell the American rebellion, instead of all those coal-fueled giant robots.

I'm looking at what was actually going on in the northeastern US around 1800 (because that's a portion of history I'm more acquainted with; I can walk ten miles from my house along a small local creek and pass the sites, and in some cases, the standing ruins, of a dozen water-powered mills originally built from 1750 to 1800). I'm looking at what did and did not depend on coal, and how those that did not might have developed from there. Likely those mills would still be there. (Of course Britain was more industrialized by that time, which in no way invalidates my reasoning.)

My thinking acknowledges, and in fact depends on, iron remaining much more expensive, which is why I think the railroads would never (or only very much later) have taken over from water passages for commercial transport. A railroad needs miles of steel rail and thousands of tons of rolling stock; a canal needs a few thousand shovel blades, and some hardware for the locks. That is to achieve, mind you, the same or better energy efficiency of freight per mile (although of course not the same speed) as a modern railroad.

So... to go on to more interesting things. Without coal gas or kerosene, would any developments in chemical lighting have been possible? Beeswax, tallow candles, and whale oil were well-known but limited in supply. (And of course, modern candle wax is petroleum based.) With animal- and vegetable-derived fuels like turpentine, ethanol, fat, and linseed oil known since antiquity, there would have been a lot of research on liquid fuels, not for machines or vehicles but for lamps. Making "artificial whale oil" would have been a philosopher's stone for chemists, nearly as alluring as turning lead into gold. The results of that research would have been available, had anyone later wanted to experiment with internal combustion engines.

Experiments in electricity would have eventually yielded alternatives such as "Ruhmkorff" lamps and arc lamps, but those would likely have been yet another curiosity for the rich or for public spectacles for quite a long time. What else might have been achievable?

By the way, it's been mentioned above that it makes no sense to attempt to generate scenarios for how things might have turned out basically the same without fossil fuels. I completely agree. Obviously, in wood-world, no one would be psychically viewing fossil-fuel-world and saying, "they have a space program so how could we achieve that too?" But even in wood-world, the things people want are basically the same. People want light in the dark and anyone familiar with fire knows it's achievable in principle, so experiments would be done. People want to be able to move goods around, so every attempt to improve ocean and inland shipping would be made that had a good chance of paying for itself. If no one decided to build any canals, it would be because the economics or some technical barrier made building canals infeasible, not because no one wanted any canals. People who manage money or aim artillery need to do a lot of arithmetic, and people who do a lot of arithmetic notice that it's repetitive and mindless, and yet error-prone because of the number of steps. Calculating machines would come about not because someone is trying to re-create steampunk (maybe without the actual steam), but because a bank manager wants to save money by reducing costly errors.

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
That's your "first two decades of the 1800s" out of the way to begin with. That's the end of the industrial revolution. There are laws regarding the treatment of coal miners dating back to the early 1600s.
Elizabeth I (ruled 1558-1603, as I recall) instructed that coal not be used in any of her palaces, which actually puts it back further. Too smelly for royalty. (Queen Victoria insisted on anthracite from a particular Welsh mine, in Pembroke I think.) London stank of it : it was known as sea-coal because it was gathered from beaches and dug out of cliffs around the Humber and shipped to London from Newcastle. Much cheaper than wood.

Without that coal, London could perhaps have imported peat from Scotland.

Again, we see the importance of metal, which would not be anywhere near as prevalent without coal, and the fact that coal-based technology was the initial driving force in the development of new technology.
I agree that smelting is the most important issue, but mechanisation began with water-power and canals were built to move other raw materials than coal (such as cotton) and product (such as cloth) between the ports and the rivers.

Water-power was constrained by geography, of course, which is where steam-power came in for those who couldn't get a place. Without coal the constraint would have remained.

(The Netherlanders developed pumping technology using wind-power, which is too intermittent for running factories full of looms and such.)


Machinery -> metal -> coal once again.
Metals and motive power were constraints which coal was used to get over, but the constraints were already evident and a solution was being sought. Coal provided it.

Equating the Industrial Revolution with coal is like equating the Internet with the availability of wires.
Coal accelerated it mightily, but it was already under way. Industrialists recognised the bottlenecks, and people knew there was a stack of money coming to whoever solved the problems. The question then becomes "What other solutions would have been arrived at eventually?".
 
I'm looking at what was actually going on in the northeastern US around 1800 (because that's a portion of history I'm more acquainted with; I can walk ten miles from my house along a small local creek and pass the sites, and in some cases, the standing ruins, of a dozen water-powered mills originally built from 1750 to 1800). I'm looking at what did and did not depend on coal, and how those that did not might have developed from there. Likely those mills would still be there. (Of course Britain was more industrialized by that time, which in no way invalidates my reasoning.)
One of the attractions of New England was those rivers; the useful ones in Britain were pretty much all taken by 1800. (The other attraction, of course, was the wood, particularly the tall, straight trees for masts and yards. The Royal Navy had dibs on those by law, but the bloody Colonials cut them down anyway. Built there own ships. Bastards. After everything we did for them ... :mad:)
 
The slower growth after 1700 allows diplomacy to overcome political and religious warfare prior to the time of fast, reliable, international transport which lessens the probability of a world war and thus lessens the impetus to develop nuke weaponry.

Warfare becomes a thing of the past and all countries live in diplomatically mediated peace and harmony. Birds sing and butterflies flutter.:D
How very boring. No Seven Years War, no Colonial Revolt, no Austerlitz, Jena or Waterloo? No place in history for Napoleon, Wellington or Jenkins's Ear? Perish the thought.

Easy for me to say, of course; the closest I've come to actual warfare is hearing two IRA bombs go off at a safe distance. :boxedin:
 
Aside from competition for wood (no small thing) ...
Indeed not, and their are dependencies. Machinery requires metal and wood, which requires wood for smelting. Mass-production implies export of raw materials and export of finished goods, requiring shipping, requiring horrendous amounts of wood. Bricks for the mills require kilns and more wood. Brewing and baking, the mainstays of urban life, require wood. Buildings, tools, Washington's false teeth - there's no end of demands. :)
 
However, once again we come up against the difference between discovery and use; science and engineering. It's fine to discover something, but it requires a whole load of other factors to be present for a new discovery to produce any benefit and hence; the modern world.

Yes, and it reminds me, curiously, of the debate we had about a self-sufficient Mars colony. While it might be true that every item we see here on Earth could be produced on Mars, that doesn't equate to a functioning Martian society. Sometimes it takes an enormous volume of basic industry and infrastructure to generate the high-tech fringe benefits.
 
I'm not saying that 87% of the people have mobile phones.
I personally own 4 cell phones, so your statistic is certainly skewed. :)

Also, is there a country without any cars?
I doubt there is any country which has no cars, but most '3rd world' countries have very low ownership rates. For example, India's rate is only 18 motor vehicles per 1000 inhabitants. That's bound to drag the average down...

Wikipedia: Motor vehicle
"Global vehicle ownership per capita in 2010 was 148 vehicles in operation per 1000 people".

You do the math.
 
But one notes that the Romans managed to produce fair quality steel without coal. Certainly coal allows for industrial quantities of steel.
So all we require is an energy source that can provide enough heat.

It is probable that electricity and the nuclear model of the atom could be discovered even without the coal driven industrial revolution we saw. It would take longer, granted. However once discovered and developed, electrical production from wind and hydro could then drive an industrial revolution similar to ours.

How do you figure ? Remember, we need a technological, economic and social pathway that requires and provides a huge increase in production.
 
Could solar furnaces be used on a larger scale or in ways we don't?

This gets at where I thought the thread was headed. It's been very good about showing what wouldn't happen (or could only happen in a limited way and at great expense), but not so good at exploring what other technologies would fill the vacuum.

My guess would be biology coming to the fore quicker and as a provider of practical solutions instead of being rather more arcane. Biological organisms have some real possibilities when it comes to self-repair and operating at very low energies.

So making steel with coal is off the table. How about growing steel from iron ore and custom bacteria? Electricity is dear? I use it very efficiently to run me.
 
Need more wood!

Indeed not, and their are dependencies. Machinery requires metal and wood, which requires wood for smelting. Mass-production implies export of raw materials and export of finished goods, requiring shipping, requiring horrendous amounts of wood. Bricks for the mills require kilns and more wood. Brewing and baking, the mainstays of urban life, require wood. Buildings, tools, Washington's false teeth - there's no end of demands. :)
I don't know if you ever played Black & White, but it was (in)famous for this song and the constant moaning of villagers for more wood.

 

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