rather than comparing countries (which is almost totally worthless) did you compare circumcised v. uncircumcised in the same nation/geographic area?
No, it's not worthless. Let's compare the data of, say, Finland, with the USA, we find:
Finland: circumcision incidence 0.02% (none neonatal); AIDS incidence 0.1%
USA: circumcision incidence 79%; AIDS incidence 0.6%
Now suppose the claim that uncircumcised men are 8.2 times more likely to have HIV than circumcised men were true (Cameron et.al., 1989). Because you want to compare on national scale, we can then calculate the AIDS incidence among uncircumcised American men. Let's call that incidence
a, then we have the equation:
Code:
0.79 / 8.2 * [I]a[/I] + 0.21 * [I]a[/I] = 0.6
which solves to
a = 2.0 .
So, then the comparison becomes that, all other factors being equal, the AIDS incidence rate in the USA is 20 times as high as in Finland among uncircumcised men, while circumcision can only cut back by a factor of 8.2.
Or let's go with Newell and Bärnighausen, who argue for a factor of 2. Then we get for the AIDS incidence rate among uncircumcised Americans:
Code:
0.79 / 2 * [I]a[/I] + 0.21 * [I]a[/I] = 0.6
which solves to
a = 1.0 ; in other words, American uncircumcised men are 10 times as likely as their Finnish counterparts to get HIV, while the protective effect of circumcision is only a factor of 2.
Now it's high time to quote the conclusion of luchog's post:
So it looks like, if circumcision is a factor in AIDS infection, it's a statistically insignificant one in comparison to high-risk vs. low-risk sexual activity; and sex education.
(highlighting mine).
It's painfully obvious that the USA is doing something wrong with respect to AIDS, compared to Finland. If there is no positive effect of circumcision on HIV infection rates, it's only doing it wrong by a factor of 6. If the positive effect is the highest touted, the USA even does it wrong by a factor of 20. That may be a lack of proper sex-ed as luchog suggested, or any other reason(s). In any case, the above numbers clearly show that circumcision is not the solution, because the problem(s) have a much higher contributing factor.
Feel free to repeat the comparison of the USA with any other European country and get essentially the same results.