Continuation Part Six: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

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Annotation of heater control settings from DSC_0219 (Date Time Original: Nov 2, 2007 6:39:54 PM) based on the installation manual for a similar model.

Here is what I see off the top...

temp is 50 degrees f. This could be the temp of the actual water in the tank read by an aqua-stat. This indicates that the low temp setting is in control and that nothing is calling for heat. Otherwise this temp reading would be higher. The temp control is what determines the heat of the water that will be circulated when the thermostat calls for heat. The way this is set is actually inefficient but may be fine for cool and not cold weather. Normally in winter this temp for circulation should be 160-190 degrees F.

The pressure looks high and not low to me. 30 lbs would be the safety valve pop off setting. Most average water intake pressure is around 12 lbs...unheated and is usually maintained somewhere in the area of 18 lbs which this looks like which tells me the heat was on but is now turned down at the thermostat. A important missing data is the wall thermostat setting. I have to click back and have another look to see how many zones there are in this system.

ETA looks like at least 3 separate zones. (three rooms have temp adjustable thermostats) This is normal for a cottage this size. Additionally I think the two knobs for setting water temp are split into one which sets domestic hot water temp...probably around 120 degrees F (showers and sinks hot water) and the other sets the temp for the water the circulates into the room radiators.

ETA 2 so yes it looks like the domestic hot water is set properly ...the one called low ? In the middle is average safe of 120 degrees.
The other knob controls the water circulation (heat) temp which looks to be recorded in another gauge which remains UN-viewable on the front panel.
Finally the pressure is reading at the top of the blue (safe) arc. I'm saying the room thermostats are set to lowest setting (good educated guess)...usually 50 degrees is the lowest they will go.

Are there any shots of the thermostats?
 
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Welcome back Mach. Here is my question from 10 pages back that you have skipped in your absense:

Anyway, it seems you still believe The Daily Mirror and anglophone sources suggesting the prosecution proposed a satanic scenario, you believe your own idea tha Mignini must have leaked a "bloody bathroom" picture to a British tabloid. While you don't believe the trial transcripts that prove the opposite, nor the obvious fact that theorieas about the prosecution "using British tabloids are wild and foolish conspiracy theories by any rational mind.


So Machiavelli, who did release the "bloody bathroom" picture? It wasn't the one taken by the Nikon that was in the case file. Here is the picture of him taking that photo with his little camera:

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ETA: And where are the rest of the photos taken by that little camera durring an official visit to the crime scene?
 
I suppose Ms Vogt's comments are quite encouraging.

http://thefreelancedesk.com/front_featured/amanda-knox-appeal-2/

If the DNA being tested matches the profile of either the victim Meredith Kercher or the other man already in jail for the murder, Rudy Guede, it is a very ominous sign for the defense. If more of Meredith’s DNA is found on the blade, it further confirms the prosecution’s assertion that the kitchen knife found in Sollecito’s flat was indeed the murder weapon. If Rudy Guede’s DNA is found on the blade, it confirms his story that he was stabbed in the palm by a knife-wielding attacker as he came out of the bathroom to see what all the fracas was about. Guede testified that the attacker said in Italian “Black man found, black man guilty,” before running out the door. He claims he found Meredith dying in her room and tried to save her, but, unable to stop the bleeding, eventually panicked and fled. Since Guede had never visited Sollecito’s flat, the prosecution would like argue that his DNA on the blade meant that either Knox or Sollecito brought the weapon back there after the murder and confrontation with Guede.

If, on the other hand, the DNA results are inconclusive, the forensic evidence could be interpreted as weakened and there is more likelihood of acquittal, partial acquittal or conviction on lesser charges, such as omicidio colposo (manslaughter), options that remain open to the court.

Machiavelli - could you comment on Andrea Vogt's predictions here?

It seems that the DNA evidence to be presented on Nov 6 is pretty conclusive. There's nothing more on that knife except trace touch-DNA, of Amanda Knox, fully compatible with the use of the knife for cooking.

Do you think Ms. Vogt has made a fool out of herself?
 
But I think you can see the oddity, the non-correspondence of this last example. In fact, the doctor / infection example points out exactly the difference between the example, and the proposing of a contamination scenario.
In fact, if the doctor commences an infection treatment, it means he has clinical evidence of infection. That is, it means precisely he has a proof that infection exists.
The detalis about the exact time and event, could be investigated or remain unknown, but the details are secondary insofar as the infection has been already proven, independently from this information.

A quite different thing it would be if the doctor had no evidence at all that any infection is ongoing or ever occurred.
In a case whete you may have have no clinical indicators, except, maybe, only the possible information about how the person got infected... Well, in that case, when you don't have anything but that information... with no information, you have no event.

In the Kercher DNA case (and in Sollecito's DNA on the clasp), the factual element is the finding of the DNA; if you don't have any contamination scenario that is credible, meaning you can explain this by offering a probable explanation based on a factual element (that is: information about a certain event that would itself cause that specific contamination event to be a very probable consequence of it), well if you don't have this you don't have anything to argue contamination. Even a child understands this. There is no need to ask a scientist about something that is elementary logic. "Everything is possible" cannot be an answer. There should be no need to argue this.



1. If you prove the contamination occurred, then proving the exact way in which it occurred, becomes irrelevant.
If you did not prove the contamination, then you need to at least prove the mechanism.

2. The logical procedure, following the above statement, now is: a) make a list of the possible number of ways; b) assess whether among this ways there is one which is probable (and calculate the probability).
Machiavelli, the problem is you clearly have limited experience of scientific method. I would make two observations.

1) PCR techniques are so sensitive that the default is that precautions have to be taken to prevent contamination, otherwise it will happen - that is a certainty. If you fail to take those precautions you do not know if the result is a true positive, or a false positive. Normally you go back to the source material; re-extract and run the test again, but this time doing it properly; but that option does not exist because of poor preservation, or the sample was used in its entirety (given the way PCR works, splitting the sample from the knife was always possible, running the whole sample was just bad technique).

2) The results from any instrument are the electronic outputs of the whole run. This includes the positive and negative controls, blanks, calibration etc. Documentation of reagents used including lot numbers etc. The graphical presentation is an interpretation, the raw output has been post processed with filtering and smoothing algorithms. Depending on the settings you can make things look different. It is like using any common digital photo software where you can keep the original output from the camera, but adjust contrast, colour balance etc. to emphasise features. Any reputable scientist would expect to be able to show the pure data output for the whole run, just claiming a result without showing the matching control runs is just not how a good lab / scientist would work. Selecting out one part of the run is like cropping a photo and presenting the cropped photo in evidence and refusing to show the whole photo.

Finally if you think physicians only treat when they have proof of infection you are likely to end up dead. Physicians deal with uncertainty, they will give antibiotics long before any results from a laboratory confirm infection. Fever and stiff neck - you will be on an antibiotic drip immediately, the antibiotics stop when the spinal tap shows no signs of meningitis.
 
Here is what I see off the top...

temp is 50 degrees f. This could be the temp of the actual water in the tank read by an aqua-stat. This indicates that the low temp setting is in control and that nothing is calling for heat. Otherwise this temp reading would be higher. The temp control is what determines the heat of the water that will be circulated when the thermostat calls for heat. The way this is set is actually inefficient but may be fine for cool and not cold weather. Normally in winter this temp for circulation should be 160-190 degrees F.


If there is a tank, it might be hidden behind the shower adjacent to this unit. It's also possible for the system to operate tankless.


The pressure looks high and not low to me. 30 lbs would be the safety valve pop off setting. Most average water intake pressure is around 12 lbs...unheated and is usually maintained somewhere in the area of 18 lbs which this looks like which tells me the heat was on but is now turned down at the thermostat. A important missing data is the wall thermostat setting. I have to click back and have another look to see how many zones there are in this system.

ETA looks like at least 3 separate zones. (three rooms have temp adjustable thermostats) This is normal for a cottage this size. Additionally I think the two knobs for setting water temp are split into one which sets domestic hot water temp...probably around 120 degrees F (showers and sinks hot water) and the other sets the temp for the water the circulates into the room radiators.

ETA 2 so yes it looks like the domestic hot water is set properly ...the one called low ? In the middle is average safe of 120 degrees.
The other knob controls the water circulation (heat) temp which looks to be recorded in another gauge which remains UN-viewable on the front panel.
Finally the pressure is reading at the top of the blue (safe) arc. I'm saying the room thermostats are set to lowest setting (good educated guess)...usually 50 degrees is the lowest they will go.


If you are counting pipes to count the zones you got it wrong. There is one cold water inlet. One domestic hot water outlet and two pipes for the single closed loop heating circuit. According to the instalation guide, zones can be controled by electric valves, or separate zone pumps. But each of those options would require a wall thermostat per zone. But there are no wall thermostats. There appear to be regulator valves on each radiator. I can't tell if these provide the thermostat function but I see no other alternative.

As for turning the heat off when leaving the cottage, the girls could go around to each radiator and shut the valves. Or, they could just turn the one knob to summer mode and be done. The problem I see is that the unit is currently set for winter, it has been this way for at least an hour as evidenced by multiple photos yet there has been no call for heat.
 
If we accept your claim that Hellmann, Zanetti, Conti, Vecchiotti, et. al. are such frauds (and known frauds at that), what does this say about Italy's judicial and academic systems, and, furthermore, why should we take Mignini & Co. (who have their own storied histories) at their word? The only way to fix a system as corrupt as you make it out to be here is to establish strict investigative protocols and a policy of full disclosure such that the public can verify that these protocols are being followed. Instead you advocate for tribalism, blind allegiance to authority, and systemic chaos buried beneath layers of legalese and ineffective bureaucracy. Italy suffocates under the weight of an overbearing judiciary and all anyone seems to care about is whether his faction has secured temporary advantage.
First time I have seen this point explicitly made, indeed a judge is a judge irrespective of the normal application of his expertise. It is also important to note that there is no need for an academic or legal career to determine a lay person's ability to interpret the essential facts of this case, which are inordinately non complex.
 
First time I have seen this point explicitly made, indeed a judge is a judge irrespective of the normal application of his expertise. It is also important to note that there is no need for an academic or legal career to determine a lay person's ability to interpret the essential facts of this case, which are inordinately non complex.

Indeed. But the essential facts only became clear after the police and media put out a lot of bad information, and the narrative of Foxy Knoxy the sex killer acquired a cult following.
 
I I think I agree with your point. I think that taking the knife to con Raf into spilling the beans on Amanda goes beyond people with common goals. I'm not sure about the group that cross the line.



I'm sure he is relating the past accurately. I don't see keeping their mouths shut about some rough play as in the same arena as faking DNA on a "murder" weapon.



This I don't buy. Why not grab a knife that was a match to something? Volturno didn't play the party line with his testimony about Quintavalle and Curatolo. Too many people involved for me.
Of course they would lie to them while questioning but faking evidence is on another plane.

I get the feeling that Italian cops are just that much more casual about fitting people up than in, say, the US or UK, and that they do it all the time.

"This will do ......"

The very fact that so many convictions are overturned bespeaks this.

They just didn't expect such a fuss to be made about two nobodies - an ordinary American girl and an Italian milquetoaste.

Look at the "evidence" they originally had - it made Amanda and Raff accessories to murder, not murderers.

I've said it before, I'll say it again;

The original intention was get to a guilty plea to the above charge in one of those quaint "fast track", "no questions asked" trials, which would have meant the two of them serving maybe 3 or 4 years but with the huge damages award to the Kerchers and Maresca assured.

Once they committed to this, there was no turning back for them (la faccia, and all that primitive crap), and after it was clear that they were never going to get a guilty plea to anything, they decided that 'doubling down' with a murder charged was the way to go - pure bluff.
 
He is NOT requesting to be questioned! :jaw-dropp
Isn't that curious? :D

(Do you think he really wanted to be questioned?;) )

What I find curious is what Amanda and Raffaele said on 2, 3, and 4 October during their first three days of questioning. I would like to see the notes on that, and the tapes.
 
Indeed. But the essential facts only became clear after the police and media put out a lot of bad information, and the narrative of Foxy Knoxy the sex killer acquired a cult following.
This is true, I noted a day or so ago your history concerning the evolution of the saga, I had an awareness in 2007, but a burgeoning interest this year. I read Massei then Ron Hendry.
 
Amanda Knox was interrogated on Dec. 18. At first, she answered questions for a while, offering her "version" (similar to the previous stories: mop, shower etc.). But when the questions came close to the topic of why she accused Patrick, the interrogation was interrupted by her lawyers and she invoked her right to remain silent.
(The last answer she managed to give before her lawyers interrupted her was "I accused him because it could be true").

Talk about making the point and missing it at the same time. Massei built a motivation based on could be true. Perhaps he did it.
 
Incredibly, there are places in the world in which the police and the prosecutors are more mature than the suspects. Many suspects will confess to crimes they did not commit. If the police or the prosecutors have misgivings about whether the evidence shows the suspect committed the crime, they won't accept the confession. That's their responsibility.

From all the evidence that actually exists (not the non-existent evidence), it is obvious to outside observers that Amanda was coerced into making the accusation. What a suspect says does not matter until the police or the prosecutors act on it. In this case, they did not make a responsible choice.

Sure. I was just responding to the contention that nothing remains from the beginning. I didn't believe the "accusation" as soon as I read the words of the chief, but even some PIP here thought Hellmann was correct in that ruling.

Btw, if Hellmann and Zanetti are totally discredited then how can the calunnia stand?
 
What I find curious is what Amanda and Raffaele said on 2, 3, and 4 October during their first three days of questioning. I would like to see the notes on that, and the tapes.

Maybe you mean November.

You are not supposed to see the notes (albeit they have been leaked be now), the judge is not supposed to see the minutes neither.

Certainly nobody is supposed to see any tapes. Tapes are not even supposed to exist. Information from police informants be collected in 'forma sommaria', that is they must be redacted by the police. Not just in Italy.

Anyway, besides putting questions about things which are in fact normal, you should add to your questions: why Sollecito declares that he wants to be questioned, and at the same time he obviously avoids being availabe to be questioned. Do you acknowledge this means his claim about being ready to be questioned is a lie?
 
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I get the feeling that Italian cops are just that much more casual about fitting people up than in, say, the US or UK, and that they do it all the time.

"This will do ......"

The very fact that so many convictions are overturned bespeaks this.

They just didn't expect such a fuss to be made about two nobodies - an ordinary American girl and an Italian milquetoaste.
Look at the "evidence" they originally had - it made Amanda and Raff accessories to murder, not murderers.

I've said it before, I'll say it again;

The original intention was get to a guilty plea to the above charge in one of those quaint "fast track", "no questions asked" trials, which would have meant the two of them serving maybe 3 or 4 years but with the huge damages award to the Kerchers and Maresca assured.

Once they committed to this, there was no turning back for them (la faccia, and all that primitive crap), and after it was clear that they were never going to get a guilty plea to anything, they decided that 'doubling down' with a murder charged was the way to go - pure bluff.

That was Mignini's and the police and Stefanoni's biggest mistake,they thought Amanda Knox was nobody,according to channel five,she has put the entire Italian judicial system in the dock,name the other murder defendant in history,about whose on going case a presentation is about to be made to the US congress by a retired judge a retired FBI man a sitting Senator and a campaigner against miscarriage of justice,not so bad for a nobody

What this case really needs is for this presentation to say in unequivocal terms,this is not a just case brought against defendants with a case to answer,this is a deliberate framing of two innocents that so far has only being tried in kangaroo courts,preferably by senator Cantwell
 
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Machiavelli, the problem is you clearly have limited experience of scientific method. I would make two observations.

Sorry, we are going to disagree forever on this.
As for your information, my experience about 'scientific method' is not that 'limited' as you guess. I instead make the educated guess that your idea of scientific method is rigid and wrong.

1) PCR techniques are so sensitive that the default is that precautions have to be taken to prevent contamination, otherwise it will happen - that is a certainty.

A stetement like this - under the POV of scientific method - is riddled with arbitrary and vague concepts. The term 'precautions' is totally vague, it doesn't mean anything itself. It might have to do with a concept of technical procedure, that is within a very limited scope, but itself is totally vague and doesn't mean anything on a scientific point of view.
The term 'contamination' without any specification is also totally vague and, itself, irrelevant to the point. The fact that 'contamination happens' is itself irrelevant, because we are not interested in the generic phenomenon of contamination (as I said, moreover, any DNA finding is itself contamination by definition).

If you fail to take those precautions you do not know if the result is a true positive, or a false positive. Normally you go back to the source material; re-extract and run the test again, but this time doing it properly;

Again, the term 'properly' has no precise meaning.
But the whole point is beyond these aspects (which are epistemology and not law).

The legal question is not whether the DNA findings (we are talking about at least two DNA findings now, but in fact there are more on the scene) are certain under a 'scientific' viewpoint or not. This is not the question. The question is whether they are pieces of circumstantial evidence. And evidence is not about scientifc realities, but about historical events, themselves defined as unrepeatable and often unverifiable events. So pieces of evidence must be, by definition, not subjected to technical/scientific cautionary paradigms.
So, sorry, the point is absolutely not in the terms how you put it.

The evidence assessment does not obey to cautionary standards put by other disciplines, but instead makes its own assessment, and assessment is based not on others' standards but on probability assessment about historical events. If your alternatice 'innocent' explanation is that you have a theory about contamination, which is a theory about one specific issue of contamination from Meredith's DNA on one unique and specific item, then you need to provide an explanation about a mechanism that describes the event and document the probability of its occurrence.

The rest, is just making up how law works.

2) The results from any instrument are the electronic outputs of the whole run. This includes the positive and negative controls, blanks, calibration etc. Documentation of reagents used including lot numbers etc. The graphical presentation is an interpretation, the raw output has been post processed with filtering and smoothing algorithms. Depending on the settings you can make things look different. It is like using any common digital photo software where you can keep the original output from the camera, but adjust contrast, colour balance etc. to emphasise features. Any reputable scientist would expect to be able to show the pure data output for the whole run, just claiming a result without showing the matching control runs is just not how a good lab / scientist would work. Selecting out one part of the run is like cropping a photo and presenting the cropped photo in evidence and refusing to show the whole photo.

Yes but this is just your arbitrary assessment about others' 'reputation' (and based on a falsification of facts).
Facts are that the laboratory never prevented the defence to access data of any kind.
Facts are that the defence chose to not attend the test, to not access the laboratory. Except Prof. Vinci who requested to access the fingerprint analysis laboratory and to analyze the pillowcase, no defence expert ever requested raw data nor access to laboratory documentation over the nine month investigation.

Moreover, the defence did not even request the raw data at the prelimiary hearing (as the transcripts and the defence themselves documented). The defence requested the rawa data the first time by the end of the first instance trial (yes it was the end of the trial, after all witnesses had been heared and evidence had been already discussed: after what we call the discussion phase).
And finally, Stefanoni never refused to offer any data: it was the judge who decided the late defence request was inadmissible.

Finally if you think physicians only treat when they have proof of infection you are likely to end up dead. Physicians deal with uncertainty, they will give antibiotics long before any results from a laboratory confirm infection. Fever and stiff neck - you will be on an antibiotic drip immediately, the antibiotics stop when the spinal tap shows no signs of meningitis.

This is what others here would call a 'pedantic' argument. Physicians don't wait for matemathical proof, they do work with uncertainity and incomplete information, but uncertainity is not equivalent to absence of clinical evidence. They obviously decide tretment only on evidence, or on factual grounds that this is necessary.
Btw, just like physicians, judges work with imperfect and incomplete pieces of information too.
 
Thanks for all the great posts on the DNA, they've been really informative. I'm amazed at the anti-science posting - are the independent experts aware of how much they are being criticised by sources close to the prosecution? If not, someone should let them know

But I think you can see the oddity, the non-correspondence of this last example. In fact, the doctor / infection example points out exactly the difference between the example, and the proposing of a contamination scenario.
In fact, if the doctor commences an infection treatment, it means he has clinical evidence of infection. That is, it means precisely he has a proof that infection exists.
The detalis about the exact time and event, could be investigated or remain unknown, but the details are secondary insofar as the infection has been already proven, independently from this information.

A quite different thing it would be if the doctor had no evidence at all that any infection is ongoing or ever occurred.
In a case whete you may have have no clinical indicators, except, maybe, only the possible information about how the person got infected... Well, in that case, when you don't have anything but that information... with no information, you have no event.

In the Kercher DNA case (and in Sollecito's DNA on the clasp), the factual element is the finding of the DNA; if you don't have any contamination scenario that is credible, meaning you can explain this by offering a probable explanation based on a factual element (that is: information about a certain event that would itself cause that specific contamination event to be a very probable consequence of it), well if you don't have this you don't have anything to argue contamination. Even a child understands this. There is no need to ask a scientist about something that is elementary logic. "Everything is possible" cannot be an answer. There should be no need to argue this.



1. If you prove the contamination occurred, then proving the exact way in which it occurred, becomes irrelevant.
If you did not prove the contamination, then you need to at least prove the mechanism.

2. The logical procedure, following the above statement, now is: a) make a list of the possible number of ways; b) assess whether among this ways there is one which is probable (and calculate the probability).

That is quite an odd infection analogy that you're using - and wouldn't be considered by any doctor or scientist. If you want a medical analogy, I would probably use infection control. Hospitals now have very strict infection control policies because we know that when it comes to transmitting infections 'anything is possible' - and if you're working with vulnerable patients (analogy with LCN DNA), the policies in place are far more extensive and have to be much more closely followed. If none of the basic standards of infection control are followed, you'll never be able to find out the exact source of an infection outbreak as anything can happen - and if it is possible for it happen, at some time it probably will.

If a vulnerable patient was subject to the infection control standards that were as shoddy as the standards used to collect the DNA, I might consider starting them on some broad spectrum antibiotics, regardless of whether they were showing acute signs of an infection
 
I find this reversal of the burden of proof and reasoning quite amusing. So "any DNA finding is itself contamination by definition", so from this point of view the finding of Meredith's DNA comes from contamination. The interesting part then is how the prosecution doesn't have to "provide an explanation about a mechanism that describes the event and document the probability of its occurrence". In other words, the prosecution doesn't have to show that this contamination event is related with the crime. We just have to assume that for some strange reason, when there are many other possible routes of contamination. It is the defense who must do the providing of the mechanism.

If the reasoning by Machiaveli is not a blatant reversal of the burden of proof I don't know what is.
 
Sure. I was just responding to the contention that nothing remains from the beginning. I didn't believe the "accusation" as soon as I read the words of the chief, but even some PIP here thought Hellmann was correct in that ruling.

Btw, if Hellmann and Zanetti are totally discredited then how can the calunnia stand?

LOL! Grinder, for this alone I apologize to you personally for any grief I've sent your way. Zinger!!!!
 
Maybe you mean November.

You are not supposed to see the notes (albeit they have been leaked be now), the judge is not supposed to see the minutes neither.

Certainly nobody is supposed to see any tapes. Tapes are not even supposed to exist. Information from police informants be collected in 'forma sommaria', that is they must be redacted by the police. Not just in Italy.

Anyway, besides putting questions about things which are in fact normal, you should add to your questions: why Sollecito declares that he wants to be questioned, and at the same time he obviously avoids being availabe to be questioned. Do you acknowledge this means his claim about being ready to be questioned is a lie?

What it perhaps means is that Mignini was so focussed in Knox that he forgot to ask Sollecito any questions.
 
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