• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Continuation Part Six: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

Status
Not open for further replies.
I could just as easily ask you the same question: why is this so important to you?

I have done a quick perusal of the literature on the kinetics of alcohol elimination, and it is much more complicated than I first appreciated. See this paper for a place to start.

That paper is not readable and you know it. I have told you why it is important above.

It's not as simple and as linear as people believe and it takes longer than you would think to clear alcohol from your system. I found this chart helpful in a post a year or so back.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=26847&d=1350899835

I have posted more than one link just now. It seems clear that a big segment of experts in the field disagree with you and Chris.

If you wish to believe that she had 9 drinks in her as she made her way home, fine. That is not 9 for the night but rather what is in her system when the clock starts. Frankly I think you hunted down a source that would hold up your agenda which remains a mystery. I used the search "how long to process alcohol" and linked the top two - one of which is written by an admitted expert in the field.

Your chart goes to zero do you have one that goes to one drink? I might have underestimated the number of drinks especially if the processed alcohol diminishes over time as you and Chris contend.

I am baffled that a group of skeptics would ignore this piece of evidence.
 
You need to clarify whether you are talking about .2 or .02. You have used both figures in different posts. .02 makes more sense, given that .08 is the standard for driving drunk.

Speaking from personal Halloween Party experience in my 20's, it takes more than one day to recover, so I agree that .02 is more than possible.

I'm talking about .2 when she fell asleep or passed out. The Lalli test was about .03 at TOD.

Please read the links they are clear unlike Chris' :o

One more source:

How Long Does Alcohol Stay In Your System

We’ve all heard people claim that they “Sober up” very quickly, just as we’ve seen people who appear to stay drunk well into the night despite having only a few drinks.

But both of these are actually provably false. Alcohol is one of the most predictable chemical reactions for your body. It burns off at an almost perfectly precise rate of .016 BAC per hour, about equal to 1 standard drink each hour (depending on your weight). This rate is true regardless of the size of your body. A 5’2 female burns off alcohol at the same rate as a 6’1 obese male.

That last one is from a UK site LJ :p. Here

I may have understated my argument - it would appear that she would have needed 18- 19 drinks in her system to have one left over.

It would seem that I might as well be linking to the Rosemary, Thyme, Parsley and Sage chicken recipe I'm baking right now.
 
Last edited:
Is it known that the letter wasn't published before Machiavelli translated it? Is it known that Machiavelli translated it? Even if Machiavelli did translate an unpublished letter from Mignini, the possibility exists that Machiavelli just was one of many people that had access to a Mignini press release. Machiavelli is clearly the best source of information about how he got the letter that he translated. Maybe he could just tell us how he received the Italian version of the letter?<snip>

Apparently Frank Sfarzo has confirmed that the letter was published in the paper.
 
.....
If you are old enough to remember the 1980s, and ever had the misfortune to engage in conversation with someone who supported the Sandanistas in Nicaragua, I think the dynamic is roughly similar. However one felt about Reagan's policy, Daniel Ortega made for a piss-poor hero. His admirers could not see that at the time.

Oof! So cruel!

You mean Joe Strummer and the Clash were .... misguided??

Say it ain't so, Joe.
 
Do you bother to read the link first?

I didn't write a Ph D. in the field wrote it.

Btw, the coroners report said that the amount found in her blood was equivalent to one drink - I didn't confuse anything.

I think I have provided the proof from Massei and online articles that aren't suspect and it is time to explain why people are so resistant to this concept. I didn't write Massei. I'm not Vogt or Barbie.

Read the forensics yourselves. There was a bad reading that had her much drunker and that';s why they did the confirming test by a second expert. Why would anyone doubt this when it isn't part of the case like the DNA on the knife or the break-in.

While I'm sure there are some discrepancy and maybe a case for some argument Grinder, I can't imagine saying that Chris doesn't know what he is talking about when it comes to biology and organic chemistry. He is an expert in this field.

What is shocking to me is you making this kind of blanket even derogatory statement like this. I have never known Chris to be deliberately deceptive or overreach with his expertise. Granted, this is not my field so I might never be able to tell.

Still, what is surprising was the tone of your disagreement with him in regards to his expertise.
 
It wouldn't even need to be a 'date' as such; theoretically, Rudy might just have had a conversation with Meredith the previous evening, mentioned to her that he'd see her at her house some time and stopped by the next evening in the hope she'd be there. He stages the burglary because he's worried she might've mentioned their conversation to someone else or that someone might have seen them talking. Or as you say, he could've read more into the conversation than was there, with the language barrier and the loud nightclub music getting in the way of the conversation...

I think it's much, much less likely than the burglary gone wrong scenario (especially with the new evidence as to how easy it would've been to break in), but it's not impossible. The strangest and most revealing thing is the prosecution's insistence that Meredith couldn't possibly have ever opened the door to Rudy herself, which I think is just part of the good/bad girl dichotomy they were going for with regard to Meredith and Amanda. She certainly could have opened the door to Rudy and either invited him in out of politeness or he could have forced his way in. This seems to be exactly what happened when Vincent Tabak murdered Jo Yeates, for example (he strangled her in her flat, so he must have got in somehow, whether because she invited him in or he forced his way in). Seems bizarre that they completely ruled out this possibility, at least after the initial stages of the investigation.

I agree that other scenarios are less likely than the interrupted burglary-gone-wrong Charlie has described a number of times. However, I continue to hold to a theory that allows for a "kinder, gentler" Rudy, regardless of how unlikely it is.

I still don't see enough evidence showing Rudy was in Filomena's room. I also don't see why, if he were in the middle of a burglary, he would feel like he had to take out Meredith for catching him. He could just jump out the window or wait until she went to her room and closed the door. He had little to fear from getting caught -- he had gotten away with several burglaries already. The exception might be if she walked in when he was sitting at the kitchen table drinking orange juice and she justifiably freaked out.

I don't see any reason why Rudy and Meredith couldn't have just crossed paths as Meredith came home. Maybe Rudy was near the cottage or maybe he was out wandering around. He asked Meredith if he could use the bathroom and she said okay. She did know him. I think it is more likely that he drank orange juice before going to the bathroom, but that would have to mean that Meredith offered him some juice, which doesn't seem that likely. He could have poured the juice for himself after using the bathroom.

On (2), what was the evidence Meredith's jeans were removed after she had been stabbed? I think one of the most convincing things which might indicate she wasn't wearing them at that point is that there was virtually no blood on them, aside from a small amount on the back of the waistband (which fits well with Rudy going through her pockets looking for the keys) and that they were found on the opposite side of the room.

This adds a significant twist to the possibilities for what happened. If Rudy saw Meredith in the process of undressing, that might have given him ideas. This is not helpful to my theory, though, as I doubt Meredith would start to undress if she knew Rudy was in the house.

Anyway, my "kinder, gentler" Rudy theory is that after his unsuccessful attempt at seducing her ended in a brutal attack, he took her phones and locked her door because she was still alive when he left; he assumed she was not mortally wounded and she would try to seek help, and he wanted to delay that. Due to a sudden twinge of regret, he threw the rock through the window as he left, hoping the noise would alert someone to the possibility of trouble. That's the same reason he left the phones in a place where people would find them easily, rather than disposing of them more effectively.
 
Anyway, my "kinder, gentler" Rudy theory is that after his unsuccessful attempt at seducing her ended in a brutal attack, he took her phones and locked her door because she was still alive when he left; he assumed she was not mortally wounded and she would try to seek help, and he wanted to delay that. Due to a sudden twinge of regret, he threw the rock through the window as he left, hoping the noise would alert someone to the possibility of trouble. That's the same reason he left the phones in a place where people would find them easily, rather than disposing of them more effectively.

It is highly unlikely things happened like this.... I cannot fathom why someone would leave another laying bloody in a room, and then try to call attention to it by throwing a rock through a window for the stated purpose, especially after taking the phones.
 
It is highly unlikely things happened like this.... I cannot fathom why someone would leave another laying bloody in a room, and then try to call attention to it by throwing a rock through a window for the stated purpose, especially after taking the phones.

You're right, it is highly unlikely. But maybe it's best not to evaluate irrational acts with a rational mind. Not that I would know anything about being irrational. At any time. :hypnotize

ETA: Don't you think the towels show remorse?
 
Last edited:
wade through the jargon

That paper is not readable and you know it. I have told you why it is important above.
I agree in essence: It is not worth your time or mine to go through the details of this paper. It would take me quite some time to get most of the information out of it. Many branches of learning have a jargon all their own, and I do not intend to mean "jargon" in a perjorative sense. My point was that neither a purely linear-in-time model (your model), nor a model that is based on a single enzyme consuming its substrate (which is close to what I was suggesting) is actually correct, which is interesting in its own right.

As to why it is important, I am still not certain. I had thought that your argument was that Meredith had a drink with Rudy. However, if she had a drink at dinner, then maybe the significance is that it might explain the slowness of her digestion. Well, now you have my attention, because that is worth wading through the jargon to understand it better.
 
Last edited:
Just tryin' to find out something...

Did Patrick Lumumba get hit by the police in Perugia or not?

If so, it helps to somewhat corraborate Amanda Knox's story that she too was hit by police during her own interrogation as she screamed loudly.

Hmmm. I've always wondered.
So today I sent a short email to Antonia Hoyle,
who wrote an interview of Patrick Lumumba back in Nov. 2007.

Did she audio record this interview?
Simple question, right?

Reading on The Old Perugia Shock:
And so, it’s official; Patrick’s interview was sold to the Mail on Sunday for 70.000 €.

This is the article from Antonia Hoyle:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-Lumumba-reveals-framed-Merediths-murder.html

In the article Patrick Lumumba states:
"They hit me over the head and yelled 'dirty black'. Then they put handcuffs on me and shoved me out of the door, as Aleksandra pulled Davide away, screaming."

Hmmm, called dirty black +hit over the head.

Antonia Hoyle's webpage states:
Antonia Hoyle is a national newspaper and magazine freelance journalist and freelance writer based in London, UK. If you want to sell your story or talk to the press, she will secure you the best financial deal, while making sure you are proud of the way you come across in print.

I wonder if Patrick Lumumba was proud of the way he came across in print?

Reading more on The Old Perugia Shock,
I found a post where Frank Sfarzo interviewed Patrick Lumumba and Lumumba says this:
"Sunday Mirror ... Mail on Sunday, I don't know... What you read in the newspapers is always fake. If they reported my own words they reported them wrongly. Unless you play me a tape. With Gente it happened the same about what a journalist wrote. We had to tell Gente to change what the journalist had reported that I had said and they didn't have a record. They had to apologize.

"The police did not treat me badly. They just did their job. And the police are the police. They're not supposed to be kind or sweet--otherwise, what kind of police are they?

"Amanda accused me because it's normal in the States accusing a "negro". If you take all the "negros" who are in jail in the States... out of 20, 19 are inside unjustly. They just put the blame on them. And Amanda did the same... The way she learned.


I find it a bit interesting that Mr. Lumumba is stating that his story was fake, the words were reported wrongly, and he asks to play a tape...

I've never read of anyone ever asking this simple question of Antonia Hoyle:
Do you have a tape?
Her contact email and phone are here,
maybe 1 of you English forum posters can even call her and leave a message:
http://antoniahoyle.com/



PS-Hey Kaosium,
click on edit, then Go Advanced,
you can add or delete them lil' smiley faces or even re-do your post headline.
:cool:
 
Last edited:
AC you are so full of it! It's at least 6 percent possible.

British student "made date with her killer" Nov. 4, 2007 Officers think Meredith Kercher, 21, left three flatmates to go home alone after watching a film on the night she was murdered because she had arranged to see a man she had met the previous night at a Hallowe'en party.

Police said last night there were indications that she had sex before she was stabbed in the neck. Her attacker locked the bedroom door before fleeing the house and dumping her two mobile phones in a nearby garden.

Commissioner Marco Chiacchiera, who is leading the investigation, said: "The most plausible hypothesis we have is that she met someone at the Hallowe'en party. She expressed a desire to meet him again. She had been to a friend's house on the night she was murdered but decided to make her own way home to meet him."
A forensic team from Rome is now searching the student house, which was left in disarray by the killer. Police sources have not ruled out the possibility that the murder weapon may still be at the scene.
More than 100 Italian police officers are now working on the inquiry, which they say will be "long and exhaustive".
They are checking Miss Kercher's telephone records and have begun examining hours of footage from a CCTV camera in an underground carpark very close to the house. They are also searching a nearby hillside park for the murder weapon.


I'd like to add that the PGP have long made the crazy accusation that Marriott was able to stop all friends of Amanda from telling the truth about her character. Not withstanding that, there were a few that said she had become different while in college.

In the case of Meredith I believe without a doubt that she became purer and better after death, as I hope I will because I'll need it. Quote]





Extremely interesting that already on Nov 4 the police have seemed to understand or at least make up the exact story that Guede eventually uses...almost verbatim. Met at a party, left 3 mates to go home to date, had sex before she was killed (? why is this clue always ignored...she was fully clothed when attacked?) This should be enough to fairly accurately conclude that she did not have a date and she was not raped before she was killed! In fact as unlikely and hard for us to imagine another sequence, the evidence seems to prove that MK was sexually attacked certainly after she was mortally wounded and though not a good time stamp on any sort of penetration it seems pretty clear that this happened after or quite soon to her death. In any case well after she is unconscious, although involuntary coughing reflex may have been occurring for a very short time.

The truth about Guede seems to be that he raped a dead or almost dead body. This bloody clothing evidence tells us that story even though no one including police or prosecutor seems to have bothered looking into that at all. Or perhaps they did in Guedes trial but since we have nothing on that we can only guess about that.

This level of depravity is something "special" and odd. Something rare like a Dahmer or Bundy or Rader. TO find this level of sick and sadistic in 3 relative strangers such as AK, RS and RG would certainly be something for the record books. Instead we have a circus of clowns trying to sell the world that this is normal in Italy I guess. All the time 3 people get together and kill someone and basically bleed them out and then in this bloody mess they rape, or play with the genitals of the deceased. And as strange as that may seem and even though the evidence backing this theory is completely missing...it is still within the realm of what in Italy? It almost has to be satanic worshipers no? It could never be a lone killer...she had only 40 or so defensive wounds. Someone must have held her...except there is zero evidence of that, meanwhile it is a simple matter to see this quick attack and stabbing incapacitate someone so quickly as to render a defense by a tiny girl impossible...but not in Italy apparently.

In Italy the Arias gal would have had 10 or more helpers to throttle her BF and cause as much damage to him and to move him around so much after his death...how is it possible? Oh maybe she shot him first in the face with a small caliber handgun and that incapacitated him enough while not killing him but so as to make the finishing off necessary. We can give her the benefit of doubt...the gun jammed, the man was suffering terribly from a wound to the face and neck...also likely a gagging noisy death...so she runs and get a knife and finishes him off. Why almost take off his head? For me that makes her special like Guede. A special sick kind of mind reserved for the gruesome story books...not common...the Dalmer, the Bundy, the Arias, the Guede.

She was breathing or trying to shortly before and right after her bra was removed. This would be an remarkable and terrible sound of gasping and wheezing and coughing...not something that leads to sexual ideas for the average mind. Guede will kill again...I have little doubt of that.
 
Last edited:
I agree in essence: It is not worth your time or mine to go through the details of this paper. It would take me quite some time to get most of the information out of it. Many branches of learning have a jargon all their own, and I do not intend to mean "jargon" in a perjorative sense. My point was that neither a purely linear-in-time model (your model), nor a model that is based on a single enzyme consuming its substrate (which is close to what I was suggesting) is actually correct.

As to why it is important, I am still not certain. I had thought that your argument was that Meredith had a drink with Rudy. However, if she had a drink at dinner, then maybe the significance is that it might explain the slowness of her digestion. Well, now you have my attention, because that is worth wading through the jargon to understand it better.

From the bottom of my heart, thank you.

I would like to suggest to you that this is not a theoretical area. I will wager several yachts that tests have been conducted by having people drink different amounts of alcohol and testing their BAC over time. I'm pretty sure this is a mature science. I don't doubt that some slowdown of the process occurs but that it must be very slight.

I believe that something slowed her digestive system and that she consumed more than one drink after waking that day.
 
PS-Hey Kaosium,
click on edit, then Go Advanced,
you can add or delete them lil' smiley faces or even re-do your post headline.
:cool:


Thanks Randy! I never knew that. :o

I will be looking forward to reading the reply from Hoyle, if you get one. Incidentally she's not the only one who was told by Patrick he was hit, even after he'd told Frank (and the courts) it wasn't true.

Katie Crouch Slate 9/15/11 said:
And what a story it was. Because of Knox's accusations, he was ripped away from his young son in the middle of the night, interrogated, beaten, and held in solitary confinement for 14 days.
 
I agree that other scenarios are less likely than the interrupted burglary-gone-wrong Charlie has described a number of times. However, I continue to hold to a theory that allows for a "kinder, gentler" Rudy, regardless of how unlikely it is.

I still don't see enough evidence showing Rudy was in Filomena's room. I also don't see why, if he were in the middle of a burglary, he would feel like he had to take out Meredith for catching him. He could just jump out the window or wait until she went to her room and closed the door. He had little to fear from getting caught -- he had gotten away with several burglaries already. The exception might be if she walked in when he was sitting at the kitchen table drinking orange juice and she justifiably freaked out.

I don't see any reason why Rudy and Meredith couldn't have just crossed paths as Meredith came home. Maybe Rudy was near the cottage or maybe he was out wandering around. He asked Meredith if he could use the bathroom and she said okay. She did know him. I think it is more likely that he drank orange juice before going to the bathroom, but that would have to mean that Meredith offered him some juice, which doesn't seem that likely. He could have poured the juice for himself after using the bathroom.



This adds a significant twist to the possibilities for what happened. If Rudy saw Meredith in the process of undressing, that might have given him ideas. This is not helpful to my theory, though, as I doubt Meredith would start to undress if she knew Rudy was in the house.

Anyway, my "kinder, gentler" Rudy theory is that after his unsuccessful attempt at seducing her ended in a brutal attack, he took her phones and locked her door because she was still alive when he left; he assumed she was not mortally wounded and she would try to seek help, and he wanted to delay that. Due to a sudden twinge of regret, he threw the rock through the window as he left, hoping the noise would alert someone to the possibility of trouble. That's the same reason he left the phones in a place where people would find them easily, rather than disposing of them more effectively.

And maybe calling a toilet bomb threat with his pals phone to alert the police to go save her too....lalalalalaalalalla right.

I see nothing that would lead one to believe in a kinder gentler Guede. I dont think the jeans tell us anything much. The blood from the neck wounds would be mostly soaked up in the upper clothing. The jeans (which were her English BF jeans btw) were likely larger and easily removed and they were found at her feet IIRC.

No, he is in there already. He was discovered when he tried to escape by the front door and made too much noise or on MK random return to the main area, or by his smell maybe. Something must explain his pants down story and not flushing although he seems to be someone raised without manners so that explains the non flush. I think he chased her down into her room where she tried to run up the wall or thru the wall at the head of her bed....she was quickly trapped and a scream led to her being silenced. Nothing kind about Guede at all. It would be nice to understand the nature of that purported semen stain. That holds some relevance certainly.
 
You're right, it is highly unlikely. But maybe it's best not to evaluate irrational acts with a rational mind. Not that I would know anything about being irrational. At any time. :hypnotize

ETA: Don't you think the towels show remorse?

It would have been remorseful:

1) not to do it.
2) call an ambulance.​

Evaluating irrational acts with rational minds is all we have. Evaluating irrational acts with irrational minds leads to motives of Satanic rituals, sex-games gone wrong, jealousy between two 20-somethings who've never demonstrated jealousy or strain between them... and saying that climbs in through Filomena's window is impossible but never once testing the hypothesis.

You have a long long way to go before YOU are irrational.
 
....
As you say, it's very common (and well-documented) for people to become passive and compliant when threatened with violence by an assailant holding a weapon, especially where the assailant is clearly more physically dominant.
....
.
And, in fact, is often the whole point of threatening someone with a knife.
.
 
With all due respect and I mean that sincerely you don't seem to know what you are talking about.

Have it out with Dr David J Hansen or the other experts.
.
Grinder, I am just a curious spectator on this issue, but the link you gave also states:

It’s important to remember that BAC can continue to rise for a period of time after the last drink is consumed.


This sounds significant, since the BAC cannot decline, until it has stopped increasing, obviously.
.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom