Let's recall what is at stake in this discussion of false confessions. The question is whether confessions prove, for instance, that some 800,000 Jews were gassed and then cremated at Treblinka. Examining the phenomenon of false confession allows us to understand why that question has to be answered in the negative. It does not prove that extermination by gassing did not take place, but merely raises doubt over whether the confession evidence can be regarded as conclusive.
Eyewitness testimony from perpetrators is only one type of evidence which is under consideration with the Holocaust. We have:
- demographic evidence before/after WWII
- Nazi documentary evidence regarding wartime population movements and population figures per region/camp/time frame
- Nazi documentary evidence regarding intent
- Nazi documentary evidence regarding the circumstances in regions affected by the actions
- Nazi documentary evidence regarding the organisation and staffing of various paramilitary units, including personnel files
- Nazi documentary evidence regarding the use of gas at a variety of installations and camps
- contemporary Polish and Jewish reports, which are still documents no matter what might be pretended
- contemporary German, Polish and Jewish diaries
- contemporary German, Polish and Jewish letters
- eyewitness accounts from Jewish survivors
- eyewitness accounts from non-Jewish bystanders/fellow inmates
- eyewitness accounts from German personnel who came into contact with the extermination sites
- eyewitness accounts from SS officers and men belonging to paramilitary units
- eyewitness accounts from collaborator personnel (above all the Trawnikis)
- contemporary photographs from some sites
- eyewitness evidence breaks down into free-form statements, interrogation transcripts, interrogation statements/affidavits, interviews, oral history interviews, and published/unpublished memoirs, as well as various forms of art/drawing and sketches.
- aerial photographs from the Luftwaffe, RAF and USAAF of a number of sites
- post-liberation site inspections and forensic reports
- post-liberation photographs
- subsequent forensic work at some sites
- recent archaeological research
This is a comparative study. Of course in comparative study not all things are identical, but they don't need to be for the exercise to be intellectually useful
.
Comparisons only work if you
You are referring to the Icelandic study that Jason Myers tried to make hay out of in your white paper, I suppose. It gives you nothing. Not only are the circumstances wildly different, making the figures inapplicable, but the key number - only 7% of false confessions are to violent crimes - doesn't really support your case, because most crimes are non-violent crimes, so this is no surprise. You have committed the statistical fallacy of ignoring the base rate.
Indeed, the circumstances are wildly different.
You were the one invoking comparisons with contemporary examples of false confessions when you mentioned the Norfolk Four. My remark was a mere aside, and was not critical to the main point. It was simply a reminder that contemporary false confessions occur frequently with non-violent crimes. This belies the stereotype.
It's also worth reminding you that the study cited by Gudjonsson which identified only 7% of false confessions were confessions to crimes of violence studied a group of convicted prisoners in Iceland, and found that less than 1% claimed to have made a false confession relevant to their conviction. The phenomenon of false confession is not exactly common to begin with. Another crucial variable is age; the Icelandic study found that nearly two-thirds (64%) made their false confessions while under the age of 21.
Take your pick as to which variable shows how irrelevant contemporary false confessions to ordinary crimes are to interrogations of SS officers and men.
Except that we know that in some cases torture was employed,
e.g. on Rudolf Hoess. Other measures, such as deprivation of sleep, or simply prolonged imprisonment, sometimes in isolation. These are precisely the measures that break people down and promote false confessions.
We also know of threats - e.g. in the following exchange in the interrogation of Otto Moll:
It's hilarious to see you lecture me on statistics yet so blatantly resort to cherry-picking. I already stated very clearly that
many hundreds of Auschwitz SS gave eyewitness evidence over a period of at least
sixty years.
In neither of the two cherrypicked cases does your argument stand up. Your quote from Moll dates from
after he was already under sentence of death for crimes committed at Dachau. The interrogator knew this, which is why he could visibly berate Moll for being so intransigent. But what was he being intransigent about? Moll was being uncooperative about his
personal responsibility and was not denying the phenomenon of gassing at Auschwitz. Moll requested that he be confronted by Hoess, in order to clarify his exact responsibilities regarding extermination at Auschwitz. (This would do nothing to save him from the hangman's rope for his crimes at Dachau, at best it might help him if additional charges were brought and the sentence for his crimes at Dachau was commuted.) Hoess then filled in the details and identified Moll as a key subordinate charged with supervising the extermination process at the Bunker, and not as Moll claimed 'only' in charge of cremating bodies. Moll lowballed the number of bodies that were cremated in that phase, Hoess corrected him.
Hoess-was-tortured is a denier meme so hoary that the beard reaches the ground. It still doesn't get deniers any bananas, because by the time that Hoess was captured, at least 30 other Auschwitz SS officers and men had given statements or been interrogated about the camp. Several of those men gave their statements without even being interrogated - the chief camp doctor Wirths wrote down an apologia which he gave to his defense lawyer and the reestablished Hamburg police. When Wirths was actually interrogated, he disputed the claims of the interrogator that 4 million might have died.
Hoess was maltreated upon capture, but the arresting officer explicitly said that he was not questioned about Auschwitz that night. By Hoess's own account, his being beaten was when he was first captured, not when he was transferred. The only indication of suggestibility was the high death toll he gave in his first statements,
which he then retracted. He retracted this while at Nuremberg (but after appearing on the witness stand), and reconfirmed the retraction to the Poles.
Which simply highlights the absurdity of Hoess-was-tortured as a claim, because Hoess was questioned over a prolonged period by three separate states,
and he produced manuscripts without being questioned, with plenty of time in between to reflect on things.
For Hoess-was-tortured to be a relevant argument, you'd need evidence that
all the other Auschwitz SS men were similarly coerced, not just in the 1940s but through into the era of West German, East German, Austrian and reunified German investigations, and to account for the statements and confirmations made outside of a legal context.
Which cannot be done.
Given that threats of this nature sufficed to allow a modest sized police department to obtain in short order
four false confessions to rape and murder from US Navy sailors, it's no surprise that they could elicit far more false confessions in the postwar environment, when there was far more institutional support for vilifying the defeated Germans than there ever was for convicting members of the navy of rape and murder.
This is utter nonsense. For starters, the Allies interrogated 10s of 1000s of Nazis in the 1940s. That is the appropriate baseline for gauging the possibility of coercion. The number of cases where interrogators unprofessionally resorted to threats is minimal.
More importantly the number of units/agencies whose members were interrogated was considerable. And that is the crucial point here. The US interrogator who interviewed the Mauthausen staff in the pretrial investigation (i.e. knowing that they would likely be put on trial) relied on his charm and simply being nice, which worked very well to elicit information from the SS men, simply by asking them to clarify their roles for the record. (More on this in Tomasz Jardim's book The Mauthausen Trial.) Quite the opposite of coercing false confessions.
I really don't think you've twigged that we're discussing corporate entities here. Your Moll example illustrates the point rather well. Moll was a known member of the staffs of Dachau and before that, Auschwitz. He could scarcely deny being on the staff of Auschwitz. He did not deny that the camp was an extermination camp. He did try to deny personal responsibility.
There's a considerable difference between acknowledging that an agency or unit one served with committed crimes, and admitting that you yourself participated. If you want Norfolk Four comparisons, then you need to find examples where subordinates admitted that they participated in the crimes. Then and only then do you have true confessions, rather than denials of responsibility and obfuscations of guilt.
Because that was the norm in Nazi interrogations.
Never took a statistics class, did you Nick? You are falsely assuming that these events are independent. Even in ordinary criminal cases, we know that a false confession corrupts other evidence. Once someone has confessed, the authorities are able to leverage that confession to obtain more confessions, as well as other forms of evidence. In this connection,
Saul Kassin has observed that in cases with even one false confession, what looks like a mountain of evidence often develops, but it's a mountain of evidence that's dependent on the confession itself. In short, it's not a mountain of evidence, but a house of cards.
Coming from someone who so blatantly resorted to cherrypicking, it really is hilarious to be lectured about statistics.
Firstly, you need to remember the baseline. Most confessions by ordinary criminals are true. A variable minority are false, either because of psychological disturbance or police coercion. False confessions are only confirmable if they are retracted.
There is a chance that any one single confession of guilt may be false. This would normally be reduced if two confessions emerge, corroborating each other. However, it is known that interrogators have been able to elicit mutually incriminating false confessions, in rare cases. So the probability of false confessions decreases and never entirely diminishes. In simple terms, if there is a hypothetical 50/50 chance of a false confession with a single suspect, then we would decrease this to 75/25 with two statements, and so on.
The number of cases where more than six individuals confessed falsely to the same crime is what exactly?
So when we find that we have hundreds of individuals admitting knowledge of an event, this would by analogy with the confession process (since admitting knowledge is not necessarily confessing to personal responsibility), the chance that all have confessed falsely is slim to none.
This observation would hold true whether or not the interrogations were done by one agency in one place in one time-frame. (The simple gathering of witness statements is done en masse on a routine basis by police, and is known to produce outliers come what may. The classic example would be the interviewing and recording of statements from the many hundreds of people in Dealy Plaza on 22.11.1963, a minority of whom heard more than three shots.)
In terms of raw probability, it does not matter if we found that only one agency did all the interviews in one timeframe. Because the raw probability still allows for the possibility that something weird happened; it's just very unlikely.
Secondly, the interrogations were not actually conducted by one agency in one place in one time-frame. Men who served in Auschwitz were interrogated by among other organisations:
British WCIU in Norway
British WCIU attached to 30 Corps (Belsen trial)
Separate WCIU for prison-based interrogations later in 1945/46
US 3rd Army
US 7th Army
US 1st Army
US interrogation division at IMT
prosecutors at IMT
Interrogation division at NMT (different personnel)
prosecutors at several NMT trials
Polish Main Commission in Krakow
Polish NTN tribunal in Krakow
Polish regional tribunals in Krakow, Katowice and other courts
Soviet NKGB investigators in East Germany in the 1940s
West German state attorney's offices times half a dozen or more
West German Landgerichte including Frankfurt-am-Main
East German Stasi
East German supreme court
Austrian war crimes office
Austrian court in Vienna
etc
So we not only have serial statements within investigations, but parallel statements developed from separate investigations, conducted under a variety of conditions, culminating in very defendant-friendly investigations under West German and Austrian law.
And we have literally zero known cases of a retraction of a statement confirming that a particular site was an extermination camp.
For false confession to be a relevant issue here, you need to overcome:
1) not only scale
2) but also independence
3) while explaining away the absence of any retractions
4) and accounting for all the other forms of evidence.
Incidentally, your "exponential curve" argument also "proves" that witchcraft was real. After all, it's impossible for so many witnesses to falsely confess! Besides, there were witchcraft confessions under many different investigating authorities - truly, the probability that these could all be false is vanishingly small!
No, it doesn't, because witchcraft as a natural phenomenon doesn't exist. You are comparing belief in the supernatural from the medieval and early modern period, with the known fact that 20th Century societies have used poison gas on the battlefield and in executions, to decide on the probability of whether the Nazis used HCN and CO, both known scientifically to be quite lethal to human beings, to murder people.
Well, if we are to consider testimony in non-legal situations, consider the example of
Vietnam veterans who invent atrocity stories for themselves.
This results at least in part from the cultural construction of Vietnam as a bad war. Considering how much more intense a demonization of world war 2 and in particular of the camps took place in Germany, the pressure for false confessions there was accordingly stronger. Imagine that after the Vietnam war the US government had been overthrown by communist powers, and a communist government installed. Imagine that that communist government proceeded to engage in the predictable vilification of their capitalist predecessors, that they promulgated a number of atrocity stories about the Vietnam war, and that decades later they brought many Vietnam veterans to trial for these alleged atrocities. Under those circumstances, it would be no surprise if they obtained a number of confessions, even if the atrocity stories were false. It would also be no surprise if these alleged atrocities were admitted in non-legal environments.
Once again you now invoke a phenomenon which requires a much bigger baseline to compare against. There were well over 2.5 million Vietnam veterans, some of whom succumbed to the temptation to falsely claim that they had participated in atrocities while in country; other veterans kept quiet about events which might be regarded as real atrocities.
The proper comparison would be with the 17 million Wehrmacht veterans, or the 1 million Waffen-SS members, who were collectively incredibly reluctant to admit to participating in atrocities and who formed veterans' associations which
especially in the case of the Waffen-SS went to extraordinary lengths to downplay and deny the participation of Waffen-SS units in atrocities. Not until the 1990s, when surviving veterans were in their twilight years, did German culture genuinely shift to the point where veterans of WWII could admit publicly that they might in fact have committed atrocities. This came about from 1995 onwards due to the 'War of Annihilation: Crimes of the Wehrmacht' exhibition.
Thus, a proper comparison of like to like (veterans discussing war crime level atrocities committed by military units) finds that German culture of the 1940s to 1980s did not resemble US culture in the 1970s.
Statements confirming extermination were made by a much smaller group of significantly less than 200,000 members of the SS and Police who had served with the RSHA, WVHA, Order Police or smaller forces like the Aktion Reinhard staffs.
The pattern with such men was to assume new identities or flee to Latin America, and otherwise to carry on with their normal lives without admitting anything, until they received a knock on the door, at which point they were interrogated in private by German/Austrian police, then in rare cases put on public trial and found themselves subjected to media attention.
Before and after indictment, these men benefited from considerable assistance, eg by Stille Hilfe and various 'rat line' networks, which aided in smuggling, for example, Adolf Eichmann out to Argentina. While in Argentina, Eichmann decided to set the story straight and was interviewed by a Waffen-SS veteran who badly wanted Eichmann to deny gassing and deny the Holocaust. But he didn't.
If on trial in Germany, a network of senior SS generals and officers routinely testified about background issues like obedience to orders. Their defense lawyers were usually veterans of other war crimes cases, and many of them like Rudolf Aschenauer were certainly right-wing conservatives. In West German and Austrian societies as a whole, there were of course also not insubstantial far-right parties that would have dearly loved the Auschwitz SS to have denied the Holocaust in a credible way.
But that didn't happen. Just a few non-credible handwaving denials from the likes of Christophersen, which were contradicted by genuine SS veterans of Birkenau.
What amazes me is if you want to hold onto your scenario of false confessions caused by the Zeitgeist, then you're essentially arguing that the defendants in NS-trials in 1960s West Germany were lying to their defense lawyers, or that men like Rudolf Aschenauer were in on the conspiracy.
More amazing still is how 50 years after the Frankfurt Auschwitz Trial, not one hint of false confession has emerged about any of the 24 defendants or the 91 SS witnesses who gave evidence at the trial. Not one of them retracted any acknowledgement about Auschwitz as an extermination camp.
The point is that it is not very difficult to get a false confession if you have sufficient means of applying pressure - which need not mean torture. Whether the crime took place has no role in the interrogation room. All that matters is that the interrogators believe it took place.
But interrogators cannot ensure compliance with a false belief for the rest of the suspect's life. This is hugely problematic for West German interrogations in particular since there was no death penalty, and since witnesses and defendants frequently lived for many decades after being interrogated.
The absolute lack of any evidence of recantation or retraction makes your claims about false confession into an amazing example of magical thinking. The sheer volume of special pleading you would have to use to explain away
why there are no retractions is truly unbelievable.
And that's basically where the gambit dies. Because false confessions are rare enough as it is, and generally confirmed through retractions.
To say that a comparison is "intellectually useless" simply because the two situations compared are not identical in all respects is to condemn comparisons altogether.
Say wut? No, comparison is a tool designed to establish similarities and differences. Argument by analogy is used in extremely controlled circumstances where alternatives are lacking. You were arguing by analogy.
Equating witchcraft trials with Nazi war crimes investigations, which is what you started off by doing, is sloppy reasoning. Your syllogism went
women falsely confessed under interrogation to being witches
Nazi war crimes suspects were interrogated
Suspects under interrogation
may falsely confess
Therefore, Nazi war crimes suspects
did falsely confess
Therefore, Nazi war crimes suspects were like women in witchcraft trials
The fallaciousness of the reasoning emerges precisely because we can compare and establish which variables were different. Other than witchcraft suspects and Nazi war crimes suspects both being interrogated, there are simply zero points of similarity.
Your desired conclusion is that Nazi war crimes such as gassing are as false as tales of witchcraft. But the only way to get this into the picture is to assume the consequent and resort to circular reasoning.
That makes witchcraft comparisons totally useless to help prove the falsity of Nazi war crimes.
The same goes for comparisons with modern-day false confessions, with the extra special irony that in high-profile cases like the Birmingham Six, there was a real bombing, but falsely identified suspects, ditto with the Norfolk Four, a real murder, but falsely identified suspects.
In the one Holocaust case where mistaken identity has played a role, the suspect (Demjanjuk) never once falsely confessed to being someone he wasn't.