Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

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What is this "noise of natural variability"? Sounds a rather linear concept for such a nonlinear system...???
Not at all. Nonlinear systems can generate noise with particular qualities, best left to a statistician to explain, and it can be on a scale which drowns out any signal over a short period. In this case it's actually a second-order signal - the difference in rate of warming - which will tend to be even weaker and take longer to pick out.

The fact that the amplification has emerged so clearly is significant but hardly surprising given the loss of summer Arctic sea-ice and snow-cover over the last 15 years. As feedbacks go, this one was a no-brainer.
 
"Still trying to BS your way around the questions? Let me repeat them for you.

1. Provide collected real world data showing current anomalous sea levels beyond normal fluctuations?

2. Some data supporting oceans acidification beyond normal fluctuations?

3. Show me the data supporting the ice caps are melting?

4. If the ice caps are not melting what is the source of the sea level rise?
Perhaps you can provide some data that will answer this question?

Documentation using actual data, not scaremongering articles, quips and accusations.

Like I said, I won't hold my breath."
First you need to pin this guy down about what he means by "normal fluctuations". Over what time period (millions of years?)? Caused by what?
The phrase suggests annual fluctuations.
Otherwise any observed rise in sea levels, acidification, etc. will be a "normal fluctuation".

If he is making the assertion that these changes are normal fluctuations then you should point out that it is up to him to provide the supporting evidence, i.e. "documentation using actual data, not scaremongering articles, quips and accusations".

Skeptical Science is one source of the scientific answers about sea level rises, acidification and ice cap melting, e.g.
How much is sea level rising?
Sea levels are measured by a variety of methods that show close agreement - sediment cores, tidal gauges, satellite measurements. What they find is sea level rise has been steadily accelerating over the past century.
Ocean acidification: global warming's evil twin
The current debate on the connection between CO2 emissions and climate change has largely overlooked an independent and equally serious problem, the increasing acidity of our oceans. Last December, the respected journal “Oceanography” published projections (see graphic below) for this rising acidity, measured by falling pH , through to the end of the century [ii].

There is no data that shows that all ice caps are melting.
The Artic ice cap is melting: Arctic sea ice in the 1940s
The observational data and scientific literature show that the current Arctic sea ice decline is far greater than any decline earlier in the 20th Century.
The Greenland ice cap is melting: Is Greenland gaining or losing ice?
While the Greenland interior is in mass balance, the coastlines are losing ice. Overall Greenland is losing ice mass at an accelerating rate. From 2002 to 2009, the rate of ice mass loss doubled.

The ice caps melting is one source of the measured sea level rise. Another source is that water expands when it gets warmer. A review of one climate skeptics video describes this well: David Evans: All at Sea about Ocean Warming and Sea Level Rise
 
I'd start with his #4.
"Still trying to BS your way around the questions? Let me repeat them for you.


4. If the ice caps are not melting what is the source of the sea level rise?
Perhaps you can provide some data that will answer this question?
"

Question 4 is relatively straightforward. I'd suggest starting there:

water expands when it is heated.

Oceans are warming

Therefore Sea level is expected to rise.

Additional water from melted land ice is an extra addition of this.

Does he agree?

if he disputes this and tries to move on, then Quote his own words to him, nicely; say u want to focus on one at a time. See if he engages or dodges.

There are real limitations on our knowledge of "normal fluctuations"; so question 1 will be a bit tricky.

Where did questions 2 & 3 come from? You or him?
 
Don't even bother ...he won't listen...the few remaining hardcore are a waste of time.
Let him do his own research ...it's out there in abundance.

You could annoy him and ask him for hard numbers on "normal fluctuations"
WHat time scale as AGW is generally in evidence since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

To some degree sea level rise is a red herring as it is not near term for most areas but it IS inevitable.

These are the scientists that comprehend the risk.

The inevitability of sea level rise
Classé dans:

* Climate Science

— stefan @ 15 août 2013

Guest post by Anders Levermann [via The Conversation]

Small numbers can imply big things. Global sea level rose by a little less than 0.2 metres during the 20th century – mainly in response to the 0.8 °C of warming humans have caused through greenhouse gas emissions. That might not look like something to worry about. But there is no doubt that for the next century, sea level will continue to rise substantially. The multi-billion-dollar question is: by how much?

The upper limit of two metres that is currently available in the scientific literature would be extremely difficult and costly to adapt to for many coastal regions. But the sea level will not stop rising at the end of the 21st century. Historical climate records show that sea levels have been higher whenever Earth’s climate was warmer – and not by a couple of centimetres, but by several metres. This inevitability is due to the inertia in the ocean and ice masses on the planet. There are two major reasons for the perpetual response of sea level to human perturbations.
continues

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/08/the-inevitability-of-sea-level-rise/

Anders is a leading scientist in this area of work....
Anders Levermann
Professor of Dynamics of the Climate System

Chair of research domain Sustainable Solutions at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Professor at the Physics Institute of Potsdam University
Head of PIK-flagship activity on global adaptation strategies
Head of PIK-flagship activity on physical climate change
Lead author of the Sea Level Change chapter of IPCC
Scientific coordinator of global economic supply-net-wiki zeean
Scientific coordinator of college Transitions in Climate & Energy
Editor of journal Earth System Dynamics
Author of climate-science blog KlimaLounge .

tell your climate troll to go argue with him....:rolleyes:

as for ice loss....one wonders what rock he's been under....

http://phys.org/news/2013-06-major-sea-due-ice-sheet.html
 
Here's his last post to me:

"...
1. Provide collected real world data showing current anomalous sea levels beyond normal fluctuations?

2. Some data supporting oceans acidification beyond normal fluctuations? ..."
You could ask what he thinks are normal fluctuations, and why he thinks so. First rule : don't let them make the demands. Ask, politely, that he clarify his question foran unitiate like yourself. There's a good chance you can take charge of some point he raises and pursue him on it, to the point of madness and beyond.


"3. Show me the data supporting the ice caps are melting?"
Inappropriate use of question-mark. Nothing is too small a detail to exploit in extremis. Or just for a laugh, whatever.

4. If the ice caps are not melting what is the source of the sea level rise?
He can, of course, only envision one cause of anything. You could ask him, deferentially, what ice-caps he's referring to.

"Perhaps you can provide some data that will answer this question?

Documentation using actual data, not scaremongering articles, quips and accusations.

Like I said, I won't hold my breath."
So many hostages given up to fortune, or in this case hostages to Nemesis, in the shape of you. You can link to Scripps, NASA, GRACE, and bring up thermal expansion all by yourself; where's he going to go for data and not "scaremongering articles, quips and accusations"? One reference to WattsUpMyButt or Monckton and you can start the torment.
 
Don't even bother ...he won't listen...the few remaining hardcore are a waste of time.
I do not disagree that he will probably not listen, but there are others in the audience that may listen; and worse: neutrals in the audience may take the lack of a reply as the lack of evidence supporting a reply.
Let him do his own research ...it's out there in abundance.
And you can find pointers to it nicely gathered together at places like this .

You could annoy him and ask him for hard numbers on "normal fluctuations"

This is a great discussion starter, but at some point we have to admit that we do not have good numbers on"natural variability". Dick Lindzen has a valid point here, and he makes it very well in public. So do not expect to "win" that one on the science, you can expect to be (rationally) pushed into risk management
considerations... You can ask how big a change it would take in the next ten years to get him to change his mind (and then push him to answers after a lot of flack about the past ten years...)

Whether or not you want to annoy him on purpose is a matter of personal taste; if your target is the audience then strategically i prefer not to (personally); tactically it is sometimes effective I guess... In any event Do not let him annoy you!
 
He can, of course, only envision one cause of anything. You could ask him, deferentially, what ice-caps he's referring to.
Agreed. I thought this might be a set-up question: How many ice caps does the earth have? Asking him is an effective approach. (In my view Mars has two, I would have thought the earth has only one; I would let him provide the jargon normalisation.)
 
Well, I went ahead and initiated my answers, while waiting for your advice. This may be a little questionable, but I didn't ask the evidence to bear more than it can. As for resources, I used grist.org and Google Scholar, and also paraphrased a JREF member in my introduction.

"First off, I want to speak to your dismissal of solid science as "alarmist rhetoric". If you plan on doing the same dismissal every time I offer mainstream science, this will be over very quickly, as I'm not too keen on talking to myself.

Also, just to clarify - is everyone who says that there is cause for alarm and that something needs to be done an "alarmist"? Where do you draw that distinction?

Moving on to the meat of your four questions. I'd like to give you a chance to put them into context, but I won't wait to get that answer before I begin - do you see these 4 questions as the best evidence against AGW there is? Do they represent the most niggling questions you've got about the whole thing? Answer as you have time, of course.


Okay, question one - "Provide collected real world data showing current anomalous sea levels beyond normal fluctuations?"

As you know, global sea levels don't rise and fall in unison (the locks in the Panama Canal used to raise and lower vessels passing through demonstrate this). In fact, local sea levels are subject to a great many factors, like wind and ocean currents that can have a piling effect on sea levels locally, salinity that effects the density of water, localized gravity wells of land masses and ice sheets, effects like El Niño and La Niña.

A 2006 study using European Space Agency's ERS-2 satellite shows that - in the decade leading up to the study, sea level in the Arctic Ocean has been dropping an average of 2mm per year http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5076322.stm . In the same study, the same satellite shows that "taking a global view, ERS-2 still records a sea-level rise. Its radar altimetry data can be meshed with that gathered by its sister spacecraft ERS-1; Europe's leading Earth-observing platform, Envisat; the US Navy's Geosat Follow-On Mission, GFO; and Nasa's highly accurate Topex-Poseidon and Jason missions. When this is done, ocean waters are shown to have gone up across the planet by 3.2mm per year" from 1992 to 2006. These are real numbers. Real increases, real trends, that just happen to match the warming trends.

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/0/0f/Recent_Sea_Level_Rise.png

________________________________

Now, on to question two - "Some data supporting oceans acidification beyond normal fluctuations?"

The following papers support the mainstream view that ocean acidification is a long-observed phenomenon, and that it is directly related to AGW. I am including only their abstracts, in order to demonstrate the connection:

http://www.annualreviews.org/eprint/QwPqRGcRzQM5ffhPjAdT/full/10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834

"Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily from human fossil fuel combustion, reduces ocean pH and causes wholesale shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry. The process of ocean acidification is well documented in field data, and the rate will accelerate over this century unless future CO2 emissions are curbed dramatically. Acidification alters seawater chemical speciation and biogeochemical cycles of many elements and compounds. One well-known effect is the lowering of calcium carbonate saturation states, which impacts shell-forming marine organisms from plankton to benthic molluscs, echinoderms, and corals. Many calcifying species exhibit reduced calcification and growth rates in laboratory experiments under high-CO2 conditions. Ocean acidification also causes an increase in carbon fixation rates in some photosynthetic organisms (both calcifying and noncalcifying). The potential for marine organisms to adapt to increasing CO2 and broader implications for ocean ecosystems are not well known; both are high priorities for future research. Although ocean pH has varied in the geological past, paleo-events may be only imperfect analogs to current conditions."

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/318/5857/1737.short

"Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2°C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided."

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v437/n7059/abs/nature04095.html

"Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms—such as corals and some plankton—will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean–carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual' scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously."

I could quite easily go on, but you get the point.

________________________


Moving to question 3 - "Show me the data supporting the ice caps are melting?"

I need some clarification here before I can answer, Jacob. When you say "ice caps", are you referring to the ice sheets, or the literal caps of ice that occur on high- elevation mountaintops?

______________________

And finally, question 4 - "If the ice caps are not melting what is the source of the sea level rise? Perhaps you can provide some data that will answer this question?"

Of course, the answer to this question depends on your clarification of #3 above.

I await your timely reply."
 
This is a great discussion starter, but at some point we have to admit that we do not have good numbers on"natural variability". Dick Lindzen has a valid point here, and he makes it very well in public. So do not expect to "win" that one on the science, you can expect to be (rationally) pushed into risk management

I don’t find that to be a particularly good point. We have quite a good understanding of what the natural variability is in the current stable range and should we don’t need to know much about what would happen to natural variability if we crossed a major tipping point to know it would be a very bad thing.
 
I'd start with his #4.


Question 4 is relatively straightforward. I'd suggest starting there:

water expands when it is heated.

Oceans are warming

Therefore Sea level is expected to rise.

Additional water from melted land ice is an extra addition of this.

Does he agree?

if he disputes this and tries to move on, then Quote his own words to him, nicely; say u want to focus on one at a time. See if he engages or dodges.

There are real limitations on our knowledge of "normal fluctuations"; so question 1 will be a bit tricky.

Where did questions 2 & 3 come from? You or him?

All the numbered questions originate from him.
 
If the ice caps are not melting what is the source of the sea level rise? Perhaps you can provide some data that will answer this question?

currently the main cause for sea level rise is themal expansion because the oceans are warming up.
 
This is a great discussion starter, but at some point we have to admit that we do not have good numbers on"natural variability".
That rather depends on what's varying. We do have good historical data on ocean acidity from sediment cores and the like, and there's no sign of variability on the scale of what we're observing. This is only to be expected, since ocean acidity variation depends on variations in ocean temperature and overpressure of CO2, which we know have been slow until recent times. The sheer amount of CO2 necessary to cause the observed change in the last few decades can only be coming from fossil carbon. Why a 40% increase in overpressure wouldn't swamp any natural variation is the question to ask. Don't expect a good answer, though :).

Seal-level variation can be handled in much the same way. Natural variation doesn't keep on an upward trend for decades without some unusual influence. people have lived close to the sea for a very long time, and they would have noticed. People have, in fact, noticed and remarked on sea-level change from post-glacial rebound for many centuries at least. Ergo, something's going on and it ain't normal.
 
Agreed. I thought this might be a set-up question: How many ice caps does the earth have?
OCaptain caught that one himself, of course. Guess our work here is done ... :)

From 2005 :
Canada's Shrinking Ice Caps
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/science/Canada_Ice.html


"Recent research conducted by NASA scientists has revealed that Canada's ice caps and glaciers have important connections to Earth’s changing climate, and they have a strong potential for contributing to sea level rise."
So there are glaciers, and then there are ice-caps. Not just Antarctica and Greenland. That's if any are still here, of course. Much has changed in the Arctic in eight years.
 
This is a great discussion starter, but at some point we have to admit that we do not have good numbers on"natural variability". Dick Lindzen has a valid point here, and he makes it very well in public. So do not expect to "win" that one on the science, you can expect to be (rationally) pushed into risk management considerations... You can ask how big a change it would take in the next ten years to get him to change his mind
I don’t find that to be a particularly good point. We have quite a good understanding of what the natural variability is in the current stable range

do you mean "understanding" or do you mean "evidence" ?

by "good numbers" i meant empirical evidence.

we have less than three score years of satellite obs, and about one good century of instrumental surface records spread more or less around the planet.

if we wanted to consider change in temperature over the last hundred years, and contrast that number with the distribution due to "natural variability is in the current stable range " then how many independent observations do we have from that distribution which defines natural variability? in other words, for global fluctuations over periods from ten to a hundred years, how well is the empirical distribution of "natural variability" documented? how well can we establish the (statistical) significance of the last hundred years? is N=10, or 100? or???

this post is not intended to cast doubt on recent warming, rather it comes from a deep desire not to oversell the observational basis for our claims regarding "natural variability".

and should we don’t need to know much about what would happen to natural variability if we crossed a major tipping point to know it would be a very bad thing.
agreed. that is a core message which stands independent of historical constraints on the available observational record.
 
curious. i wonder what you will think of the claim

given the usual disclaimers against looking at too fine a spatial or temporal scale with these models, given their systematic temperature offset/bias and rather coarse resolution.

is the ordering of operations in their application of SSA sound?

I've always found the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, both phase 3 and 5, difficult to follow. I suppose if I immerse myself in it during a whole week I may wrap my head around what was going on there. Until then -probably never- I have to trust some acquaintances in the School and its research institutes and after some conversations I was convinced that those variations doesn't come from an increasing error band when we move forward in time. Anyway I wonder if analysis like the one in the paper are something more than an intellectual exercise that carries too far what CMIP output available for study is intended for, that is, climate model validation, intercomparison and systematization of data access.

But we may compare what the paper exposes with the current state of the Arctic sea ice. It seems it would reach some 5.3 million square kilometres in a few days from now. It's interesting to read the Sea Ice Outlook for September by Msadek, Vecchi an Winton. They were forecasting a range from 5 to 6.2 million square kilometres departing from the "actual information" on July 1st (a full-field assimilation) and using the GFDL ensemble coupled data assimilation based on CM2.1 global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model. They run similar analysis for the previous 30 years and found the model to underestimate systematically the sea ice minimum, so a bias correction is applied to get the figure in the outlook.

On the contrary, the phrase in Coumou and Robinson you quoted says that "runs" for the period 2000-2012 match pretty well the "actual data" so, are the conclusions trustworthy? Well, in Msadek et al you can observe that from 2005 on the CM2.1 mean detrended doesn't match well the real values while the error bars -ranging from lower to higher extent according to the10-model ensemble that was used- only include the real value in two of the eight years in the sub-period. That seems to indicate that the model is less accurate in a context of "little" ice -specially thick multi-year ice-.

Analogously, in Coumou and Robinson, they find the extreme events in RCP2.6 (a gently warming planet) to remain limited while in RCP8.5 (a quick inferno) the whole planet is lashed by recurrent extreme events. Do scenarios radically different than the actual one indicate the "failure" of models? I wouldn't say failure but rather an increasing inaccuracy.

The problem is not the paper but the journalist commenting the paper and writing about our future as if it should be the future in the paper.
 
this post is not intended to cast doubt on recent warming, rather it comes from a deep desire not to oversell the observational basis for our claims regarding "natural variability".
Understood. I'll try to lay out one way of approaching the specific case of surface temperatures.

by "good numbers" i meant empirical evidence.
There's more to empirical evidence than numbers :). Best steer clear of them in this case, and go with the other observational evidence such as diaries, estate records, letters - people do tend to gossip about the weather. We'll hear of good, bad and awful weather, and we'll hear talk that it portends the Apocalypse, but we don't hear about the climate changing. This sort of evidence goes back thousands of years in some places, during which we know the climate has actually changed.

The only example I know of people remarking on the climate is the warming of 1910-30 or so, and that's explicable by reduced vulcanism, a more active Sun and, of course, greenhouse warming. The current warming has gone on longer and on top of that previous warming. That's clearly not natural variation on, say, a 300 year scale.

Another point about natural variation is that if we don't know its character neither do they, so they don't know that what's happening is indeed within its bounds. Any claims to the contrary are invalid, unless they can come up with the "good numbers". Which, perforce, they can't.
 
do you mean "understanding" or do you mean "evidence" ?

by "good numbers" i meant empirical evidence.


I had no idea you were actually disputing all of the proxies for past climate. I thought you were making a more sensible, but still incorrect argument that we didn't understand what all this data means. Some of the more recent reconstructions of past temperature use in the vicinity of 1000 separate data sets.


In any case you are still barking up the wrong tree looking for "empirical evidence" for the size of natural variation is, because natural variation isn't a fixed quantity. What you want to have is an understanding of what's normal and what variation you can expect for a specific set of conditions.

we have less than three score years of satellite obs, and about one good century of instrumental surface records spread more or less around the planet.

Contrary to what some blogs would have you believe satellite data is not the be all and end all. In fact it's vastly more complicated error prone and difficult to use that ground station data.


how well can we establish the (statistical) significance of the last hundred years?

Quite well, but the fact is current warming is so rapid that even large errors would be irrelevant. The earth is warming at a rate at least an order of magnitude faster than anything observed in the paleo-climate record. If nothing changes with CO2 emissions, in this century alone we will get warming that took 3000+ years at the height of warming in the last deglaciation.

This paper takes that observation back 65 million years and says current warming is an order of magnitude faster than anything seen in the last

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6145/486
Terrestrial ecosystems have encountered substantial warming over the past century, with temperatures increasing about twice as rapidly over land as over the oceans. Here, we review the likelihood of continued changes in terrestrial climate, including analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate model ensemble. Inertia toward continued emissions creates potential 21st-century global warming that is comparable in magnitude to that of the largest global changes in the past 65 million years but is orders of magnitude more rapid. The rate of warming implies a velocity of climate change and required range shifts of up to several kilometers per year, raising the prospect of daunting challenges for ecosystems, especially in the context of extensive land use and degradation, changes in frequency and severity of extreme events, and interactions with other stresses.
 
I had no idea you were actually disputing all of the proxies for past climate.
Playing devil's advocate, I think.

Contrary to what some blogs would have you believe satellite data is not the be all and end all. In fact it's vastly more complicated error prone and difficult to use that ground station data.
A good point to bring up when people accept the "gold standard" claim. You can understand why they do : satellites are modern and terribly scientific, unlike those weather-stations which have been around for a couple of centuries. In fact it's the most easily manipulated measure, as demonstrated by Spencer and Christy and their secret methodology and (shock horror!) computer code. That code which has been released revealed some flaws, all with the same cooling bias (who'd a thunk it?).

The more experienced deniers have an answer to this line, but most don't and as a result they often get flustered and disturbed. Bluster results, and it's no great step from there to them losing their tempers. Which is more than half the battle.

Quite well, but the fact is current warming is so rapid that even large errors would be irrelevant.
Cue reference to Judith Curry's blog ;).

It's so rapid that people are noticing. In the UK it's been flooding which has brought things home over the last decade or so, and I suspect it's the same in many other places. Not sea-level rise, not polar bears, not heatwaves and droughts, but torrential rain. An unusually high proportion of the population has experienced flooding directly or through friends and family, and it's a bit late to blame it on deforestation.

The earth is warming at a rate at least an order of magnitude faster than anything observed in the paleo-climate record.
The climate has always been changing. If you're under 30 years old it's always been a hot political potato. Ergo, nothing going on here.

If nothing changes with CO2 emissions, in this century alone we will get warming that took 3000+ years at the height of warming in the last deglaciation.
Pretty impressive. And the century after we'll really start pushing the envelope.
 
do you mean "understanding" or do you mean "evidence" ?
There's more to empirical evidence than numbers :).
agreed!
Best steer clear of them in this case, and go with the other observational evidence such as diaries, estate records, letters - people do tend to gossip about the weather.
and i agree with this too :). thanks for saying it clearly.

i was arguing that inasmuch as "at some point we have to admit that we do not have good numbers on"natural variability"" , one might not want to open that door to an anti-science skeptic in a public debate.

of course if one finds themselves there, we can always take your another point:
Another point about natural variation is that if we don't know its character neither do they, so they don't know that what's happening is indeed within its bounds. Any claims to the contrary are invalid, unless they can come up with the "good numbers". Which, perforce, they can't.

exactly. and we move the discussion to one of risk management, not some unscientific claim to have absolute certainty about the future.
 
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