The Markets, Trading & Charts Thread

[kevsta]

Despite all your apparently highly successful charting examples? How's that?

What don't you understand about 18 months in? and at which point the evidence strongly suggests Im now maybe way ahead of most of the rest.

Once again, should an 18 month-in noob be able to produce ongoing correct predictions on things he just looked at for the first time (Nikkei / Apple) recently?

I have continually stated I trade FX most, EUR & GBP. So you're a pro, and an expert, great. did YOU short the Stolper trade down (the 3 very predictable pushes) to the very bottom and reverse EXACTLY on the line, documenting what came next for about a week, live here?

so how about you start contributing with things how you see them eh?

and another funny challenge oh mighty one, wanna play marketmaker and take the other side of my theoretical trades here, and see how we end up?

I am more than up for it, if you are?

EDIT, and re the question: "hows that" ? actually, a 50/50 win rate with this strategy is just fine, as long as youre at high risk reward, all good.

 

[kevsta]

A simple question:

Is it a coincidence that previous highs or lows are always taken out before the trend goes the other direction?

yes or no.

 

[kevsta]

here's a prediction based on the extremely basic information shown on this chart alone.

http://clip2net.com/s/5xWh9h

if you are thinking about buying the Nikkei now, you will almost certainly get better entry prices imminently.

for while 13526 may have been a very predictable floor at intraday level, 13600ish looks to also be somewhat of the ceiling. I have no idea whether it resolves up or down on the long term, (suspect probably down for a bit though) but I am pretty confident that if it is ultimately headed up, it will be going lower first anyway.

any good?

on the 13526 subject, now it's been broken, retail are all looking at the lower lows at 13438, and now, so am I. But in a somewhat different fashion to them.

it's not will it/wont it hold, it's do we see a robbery there and if so can we grab a bit of the stash that falls out the truck ourselves without being robbed.

that should say "orders", not "stops" to be perfectly accurate. some may be stops but there will be fresh buys coming in as it breaks the trendline, there always are.

 

[psionl0]

for while 13526 may have been a very predictable floor at intraday level,

Does that mean you bought at 13526 or sold at 13526 and how many units did you trade?

13600ish looks to also be somewhat of the ceiling.

Does that mean you bought/will buy at 13600 or sold/will sell at 13600 and how many units did you/will you trade?

on the 13526 subject, now it's been broken, retail are all looking at the lower lows at 13438, and now, so am I. But in a somewhat different fashion to them.

Does that mean you bought at 13428 or sold at 13428 and how many units did you trade?

it's not will it/wont it hold, it's do we see a robbery there and if so can we grab a bit of the stash that falls out the truck ourselves without being robbed.

What does that even mean?

[qimg]http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1376224245-clip-39kb.png[/qimg]

What do the numbers "1" "2" and "3" mean?
Why do you have red blue and green arrows?
What does "due one bounce so most likely is" mean?
What does "retail breakout traders stops here" mean?

 

[kevsta]

Does that mean you bought at 13526 or sold at 13526 and how many units did you trade?

I took the trade from the top of these latest 3 pushes down (on demo because I was traveling) here. One (0.5) Nikkei sell contract cashed out in 3 parts as we approached the floor.

Does that mean you bought/will buy at 13600 or sold/will sell at 13600 and how many units did you/will you trade?

Does that mean you bought at 13428 or sold at 13428 and how many units did you trade?

neither at this point. I would short it if it runs up to the pink circle and sets up the short, or I would possibly go long from a stoprun setup at 13438 or maybe much lower.

this depends if the floor fails, or just looks like it's going to, then takes everybody's money at inflated spreads at the turn and heads up again, if it does, I would take that one, but if its going lower, I would only short if I can get in safely, at the trendline, after seeing the manipulation (robbery)

What does that even mean?

to understand what I am talking about here it is essential to picture yourself as a trader. you are watching either the upper downtrend line I have circled or the lower line 13438 and have a directional view.

lets focus on traders looking at the descending trendline on this example?

What do the numbers "1" "2" and "3" mean?

Push 1, (pause), Push 2, (pause) Push 3. The 3 push cycle that runs everywhere, all the time, and at all timescales throughout all markets. except Bitcoin.

Why do you have red blue and green arrows?

Red is an expected downmove, Blue an expected upmove. the Green arrow is labeling only

What does "due one bounce so most likely is" mean?

the 3 push cycle goes 1, 2, 3 ... 1 (the other way - the expected bounce) 1.. 2, 3 etc

What does "retail breakout traders stops here" mean?

back to the descending grey trendline. retail traders are trying to work out whether it going to break out of this triangle caused by trendline and the "floor" upwards or downwards. at that trendline you will have 2 types of traders.

those who believe price is going up will be buying as the price pushes upwards and their stoploss will be below their buy point somewhere. that stoploss is a sell order

there are also those who think it is going down from that trendline and shorting from there, their stoploss will be above that trendline somewhere and is a "BUY" order, and the 10% winners want to sell to as many "buys" as possible, before the move starts

so say this camp are divided into 2 equal factions, then chance says that 50% of them are going to win that bet, no? the stats however say that 90% will lose it.

here is why.

 

[kevsta]

so people might be looking at that and thinking "well just move your stoplosses out wider then, to give it more wiggle room first"?

it's the retail traders first move, guaranteed, after its happened to them once or twice.

how many of them even understand that they need to to reduce the position size correspondingly, to maintain overall trade risk? not many, to start with, anyway.

many haven't even got written plans, or position/risk strategies even.

so how many of them understand that if they double the stoploss distance, they should really be doubling the take profit position too, to maintain a positive risk:reward?

a few maybe.

but how many understand not only the first two, but exactly how and where to take only the very highest risk reward shots in line with (by trading standards) often extremely reliable cycles?

10% < = IMO.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

so people might be looking at that and thinking "well just move your stoplosses out wider then, to give it more wiggle room first"?

Yep, that's the first thing I would do, if I was make-believe investing.

 

[psionl0]

Push 1, (pause), Push 2, (pause) Push 3. The 3 push cycle that runs everywhere, all the time, and at all timescales throughout all markets. except Bitcoin.

Is this the pattern you look for?

 

[kevsta]

Is this the pattern you look for?

[qimg]http://i44.tinypic.com/2wbzyuu.gif[/qimg]

more or less. "nothing special" is ether accumulation or distribution though, and if it ends with a stoprun of the lows, you're going up, and vice versa

 

[psionl0]

more or less.

At last! I understand you.

"nothing special" is ether accumulation or distribution though, and if it ends with a stoprun of the lows, you're going up, and vice versa

Oops! I'm getting confused again.

 

[kevsta]

a stoprun simply means an obvious push into an area traders have all their stoplosses, followed by an obvious immediate pull away from the zone again. like this

in larger timescales they usually show as just a pin through a line.

pins = "stopruns woz ere"

 

[psionl0]

a stoprun simply means an obvious push into an area traders have all their stoplosses, followed by an obvious immediate pull away from the zone again. like this

in larger timescales they usually show as just a pin through a line.

pins = "stopruns woz ere"

Does that mean that you have to wait until you have seen a "stoprun" before trading or could the 1-2-3 pattern still apply immediately after you have made your trade (as your chart example seems to suggest)?

 

[kevsta]

Does that mean that you have to wait until you have seen a "stoprun" before trading or could the 1-2-3 pattern still apply immediately after you have made your trade (as your chart example seems to suggest)?

you have to wait, unless you want to be exposed to it yourself. if you're happy to lose, when you were right anyway, go ahead and take it before the stoprun

 

[psionl0]

you have to wait, unless you want to be exposed to it yourself. if you're happy to lose, when you were right anyway, go ahead and take it before the stoprun

I see. So in spite of the markings on right hand side of the chart, you don't buy after the third push because the prices haven't gone into a holding pattern (evidence of a "stoprun") yet.

 

[psionl0]

So, if I am reading you right, this is how your system works:

 

[kevsta]

I see. So in spite of the markings on right hand side of the chart, you don't buy after the third push because the prices haven't gone into a holding pattern (evidence of a "stoprun") yet.

on a daily basis, what tends to happen is that after the days move, the price goes into what most people call "consolidation" usually overnight in the Asian sessions (JPY excepted) where it will set an overnight range. looking at the Aussie last week

(image removed to link as too big)

assume you had bullish view on AUDUSD last week, (after the first push we would be looking for a second) but you are not using our system, you just think it's going up anyway. As London opens it spends 3 hours bouncing off the top of those moving averages, and many retail might go long there. They will be proven correct, as the price is ultimately going up today, but if they take that trade at yellow entry 1, they would need a 40 pip stop to survive the coming stoprun lows. 40pips is big, not many use that much.

and from that point (yellow 1) you have only 64 pips available travel to the highs = 1.6:1 risk reward maximum from the one day move, even if you timed exiting the top perfectly.

but waiting for entry 2, allows us in with a 14 pip stop (use 20) and 105 pips ahead of you on the move of the day. 5:1 risk reward, and a much higher probability of being directionally correct, after you've seen them hit the lows and get all the early retail traders stops (and money)

we were both right, Mr YellowEntryRetail and me, but his 32 pip stop got hit, and the ManipulationCrew made +100 pips, from the same trade.

 

[kevsta]

So, if I am reading you right, this is how your system works:

getting there slowly but on the first image we are buying at the bottom immediately after the stoprun, we want that 1,2,3 up, and out again at level 3 every time.

then wait for the opposite to happen at the top (stoprun of the highs) and sell sell sell, and 1,2,3 down again and out as close to the bottom as we can, then wait again..

 

[psionl0]

getting there slowly

What can I say? I'm a slow learner.

but on the first image we are buying at the bottom immediately after the stoprun, we want that 1,2,3 up, and out again at level 3 every time.

then wait for the opposite to happen at the top (stoprun of the highs) and sell sell sell.

Ah! So my chart has the trading being done at the wrong stoprun. You want your trade to start before the 1-2-3 push not after.

So when you encounter a stoprun, if you think the trade will be bullish then you buy at that point. Then you wait until the 3rd push and then sell back again.

If you think the trade will be bearish then you do the opposite.

 

[kevsta]

What can I say? I'm a slow learner.


Ah! So my chart has the trading being done at the wrong stoprun. You want your trade to start before the 1-2-3 push not after.

So when you encounter a stoprun, if you think the trade will be bullish then you buy at that point. Then you wait until the 3rd push and then sell back again.

If you think the trade will be bearish then you do the opposite.

yay and the direction of the stoprun in the Level 3 zone gives you bull / bear. ..if its at the highs, bear, if it's at the lows, bull.

so does this start to make a bit more sense now? closed out lastnight at the top of the extended L3 push. I wasn't taking the 2nd push trade shown above, as I was already in from lower, and this is probably as close as I have come yet to catching the 1 whole week move (3 daily pushes and the L3 extension) from the very bottom to the very top.

I thought about just shorting it there and then, but overnight, risky, anything could happen, so didn't. the liklihood from where I closed out is at least the one pullback (inverse bounce) that is now due, down to the 91000 or 90500 ish area, but there's nothing to say it cant stoprun the highs again first.

 

[kevsta]

Marketmaking Quotes Request Please.

So does anybody who is skeptical want to play theoretical marketmaker with me?

I have a million theoretical Apple shares I am considering offloading imminently, because I have some other trades in mind for the money. current price is $454.31, I'll probably be looking to sell them around $460+ if things set up right.

I'll be more than happy to (start) letting you have taking them back from you around the $400-$420 mark if things go my way?

So is anybody theoretically buying this dip?

If I were you I would probably wait for a bit lower, but if you're my marketmaker if I'm selling you have to buy, and vice versa.

I will state that not once, but twice in the past I have made these kind of challenges, to Puppycow, both times in fact, based on my previous understanding of things, with a theoretical long gold short S&P trade which theoretically bankrupted me (if I wasnt holding to maturity, off balance sheet etc ) and also on whether gold would hit 2000 before 1200.

and was badly whooped both times, by the nicest guy around who didnt even want to play

so if I havent improved significantly since then, your odds are pretty good