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The Markets, Trading & Charts Thread

from the first page

and as everybody loves predictions, lets stick my neck out with some Nikkei movement predictions too. I drew these yesterday, and am not saying, and cannot say that each arrow will be perfect, however the principle is virtually always correct, and that is:

that if the price is going to break out back higher, it will first suddenly and violently penetrate the lower line, and that until you do see that any rally is likely to be short lived.

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or, if the price is going to go lower, it will bounce and first look like it is going to break out higher, but then rapidly retrace leaving only pins, where once there were big blue spikes upwards and lots of Herd pressing "BUY" to try and jump on.

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and that until we see the (disputed term formerly known as) manipulation, at either higher or lower levels, all we will see is price consolidating in that triangle for a while.

obviously I saw it at the top where I was expecting it, and took the short.

I just closed the final part out as we missed the Take Profit by about 20 pts overnight and retraced back up to the lower ADR (Average Daily Range), it could well rally a bit now and not come back for the floor for days. (yawn)

and I'm only looking for the main meat of each thrust, not days and days waiting out bounces for a final few points, so out and watching again, because the same principles apply, until we see a decent breach of the floor and powerful buying back upwards again leaving only a long pin downwards, it's not a "safe" floor yet.

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So, as we:

1. didn't break the floor first

2. the rally then re-traced

3. I made +11.5% account size from one trade based upon this soft prediction, (or +115% $1.15 million on the JREF high leverage model) I'm counting this prediction as nailed thus far?

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can anybody start to see what is meant by this yet?

we don't need to know which way it's going to move, only where you are and how it moves once it starts.

lulz and just a note, if you ever feel like the market is watching you, and only you, and your every move, and waits for you, to move then mugs you anyway, then that's how it's supposed to feel. like the moment you close a trade early, it will run straight through your TP you just closed.. if you dont close, it will instead rally and taunt you, reducing profits. it is indeed an interesting game.

Nikkei having another go at the floor now, might be going long soon. :)
 
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AAPL update

so more predictions coming true. in this instance as well as explaining what I thought was coming (soft predictions) days in advance, I again (demo) hard predicted it, and explained why (distribution) in advance, too, did I not oh skeptical ones?

some highlights from yesterday and todays action thus far

yesterdays opening shakeout, never tire of looking down on these from the top :)

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er.. wtf happened there? :mad:

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then it just went sideways to try to bore me to sleep. todays open

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please note that the figure on the bottom right is in millions, ($0.8m) if this were once again taken on the JREF high leverage model.

can it retrace right up again? yes, but probability is on my side and at least I cant lose now. you might say

"well what's $10, it's meaningless" ?

not if it's a 100% account win when leveraged, eh. if you pull this off twice a year including 2 losses to get in correctly on both, and still be easily up 200% lol. how much do you guys earn if your stocks go up a bit and stay there long enough for you to sell them? its not quite like this, is it?

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why oh why oh why didn't I just open it on Sunday and take these on it instead? for the 20secs it takes to fill in an email address if I'd completed my challenge doubling the account a couple of times by Thursday, I think even my mentors might be impressed. how low will it go do we think? how many hundred percent that is?

if it gets to 200% I'll take a $mill off. :D
 
Warren Buffett (a "rube" apparently) has 50 billion. When a chart trader (or gold bug) gets to 50 billion, then I will listen to their advice. Heck, if any of them even manage to make a billion, I'll take note.

This. Those charts just show datamining. The Motley Fool got started with a book about a simple stats-based trading strategy. It seemed smart. Only trade once every 18 months on an individual stock. Choose them based on something in their fundamentals.

Later, they found out their strategy didn't predict well. It just worked on their dataset. So they were fooled by their own datamining.
 
This. Those charts just show datamining. The Motley Fool got started with a book about a simple stats-based trading strategy. It seemed smart. Only trade once every 18 months on an individual stock. Choose them based on something in their fundamentals.

Later, they found out their strategy didn't predict well. It just worked on their dataset. So they were fooled by their own datamining.

I dont really understand what you mean by datamining in this instance, could you elaborate please?

are you saying I am only showing the successful trades? I'm trying to only show the successful ones that I had mentioned what I would be looking, prior to. obviously Im not showing all stopouts etc but they all count into the statement results?

or maybe this is even the first real comment in the thread to make me rethink or give me new angles on what I'm seeing? I live in hope.. :)
 
..because it seems very obvious to me that if I can go through a chart and pull up a regular rhythmic cycle pattern out of it with a neat little oval at every market turn, then there are without doubt some algorithms that can do this too.

the main difference between their trading style and mine now from what I can see is resources. If Im winning then I must be facing the right way enough, to not be in the losing team?

so buying down those red spikes at the end of a thrust down and getting better and better price as you do, if turning is only a matter of time, and you can keep buying until all the sellers run out.. has got to be a winner. (theoretically over time, not practically with my money)

the other difference of course is that the algorithms are trading in every timescale and in both directions simultaneously.. which I have to be honest, I don't think I'll ever master.
 
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cycle probability

so lets come back to probabilities, as I don't really think people are believing or understanding what I am saying about this.

It is now a quite tightly defined system of probability and strategy, and the more I practice it, the sharper it's getting. It's not "buy and hope" by any means.

[qimg]http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1375778608-clip-82kb.png[/qimg]

Added in.. trades overview

GBP trade €22.50 risk, looking for push 3 today, maybe another 70 pips if it goes?

update, GBP push 3 went as expected a day late, but without me. remember, it's not like I didnt catch the VERY bottom of this from the beginning, http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/Zkq5n and enter again (try) for push 3.

6Ls5n.png



AUD trade, as summarized a few days ago, this is the bottom I think, this could go way up, and stop is at breakeven now

+230 pips (1.7%) currently http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/j4s5n

EUR, still think it will break downwards but if not I get stopped at 22.5 pips = +€35.

EUR finally made up it's mind and made push 1 up yesterday, I was out at +€35 the day before, and in fact bet the same 35E it was still rolling over, and got stopped, so now we know, and looking for push 2 up next, maybe today.

lets see what the cycles bring me, it only needs one to run properly and we are laughing (its more of an "I knew it" chuckle these days") :D

so once again, I'm sorry you can't see this, but you will have to excuse my skepticism about your opinions (about trading, not everything) as mine are based on intense activity, testing and figures.

so 2 out of 3 cycles ran as expected, one of which I was in (Aussie), and is now at about +1.8% account size profit.

and remember that one? it was the one where I first got stopped out, but took it again because of probability and having seen that move before (a few times lol)

how many of the retail traders laughed at the utter cheek of the game and calmly took it again immediately, because they recognize the game move? not many, I would also wager?

I have €20 at stake on the Aussie, and I have more than enough faith in this cycle, (through my own work and observation) that might be €250 tomorrow, that I can't wait to get back into the trade AUD has also slid a long way lately, so if I have called the reversal (and hopefully you'd have to admit I have at least a 50:50 chance of doing that now?) ..it might just carry on going.

one week later, portfolio size up another 2% for 0.2% risk. another hard prediction nailed, another week of account growth.

does anybody want to pick a specific instrument and we can just watch it cycle over and over and over until you can see this? because its like trying to deny there are waves in the sea. whether you can surf or not does not change the facts about the landscape.

1,2,3.. 1, 1..2,3, 1,2,3, 1, 1,2....3,

its simply the rhythm of the markets, and if you can't dance, you'd better not play.
 
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stock picked at random, Boeing.

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full size here (too big for screens) http://clip2net.com/s/5xgPT1

level 3 accumulation after 2 rises. I'd be looking for shorts and would have taken it immediately on the close of that red spike out of L3 if I'd seen it, because the probability of at least one good push down from there is very high.

also please notice, that gaps primarily seem to happen in the direction of the cycle. so retail investors may not have any idea which way it's going to gap next, but as demonstrated with the AAPL analysis and 2 opening gaps in my direction in a row..

IN LINE WITH MY PERCEIVED CYCLE.... ??

chance? :) this argument is getting a bit weak gentleman, somebody is going to have to step up and do better than this.
 
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only other live trade this week, currently +85pips 1.3% acc size profit.

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Go on Abe, PRINT!! :)
 
Ok, some of you will be glad to hear I'm rounding this up now. I'll be honest, I expected more intellectual challenge over and above the usual shouts of "Warren Buffet! ..Taleb!" from supposedly one of the most intelligent forums on the net.

I have put up pages of accusations, theories and surmising, along with reams of screenshots of just daily goings on, and a few ongoing predictions which haven't worked out that badly either. There is reams of stuff here to be challenged, pulled apart, examined etc, I cannot help but wonder why it doesn't attract the same interest as any other subject you guys feel you need to intervene to tell the truth in.

Because that is what I WANT you to do, and on the subject matter, not my individual ability to trade it preferably, because that IS actually irrelevant. By comparison to the guys who have been doing this years I am a numpty noob.

And this is actually borne out in my trading, until maybe 3 months ago I was still taking loads of stupid entries and losing silly shots that I should never have taken, and yet.. the wins remained big enough, to still go upwards? I can tell you as a fact, nobody was as surprised as me to stumble onto something on the net, that seemed to work.

so please, somebody tell me how this is possible, an 18month-in numpty noob taking loads of terrible entries first, dragging his figures right down, but still profitable? then numpty starts trying to be a bit more selective, takes fewer trades, monthly figures accelerate dramatically.

I also understand that the vast majority of you don't know what you're looking at really, and so have tried to keep it very simple and playful, but show all the nuts and bolts at the same time.

so apologies if my muppetry language has offended, but if the daily observable phenomena that I (an 18 month in numpty noob) can see and profitably trade IS for the reasons that we surmise (and it fits trading price movement pretty well, as I think I have at least demonstrated) then we are ALL muppets. only some of us want to be pigs instead.

the logical alternatives are that there is nothing untoward at all going on and:

1. I have worked out how the mystical market actually works in 18 months.

2. I'm psychic.

neither of these seem very realistic to me, whereas the numbers and daily chuckles are as real as can be.

Lastly, a word about the other standard skeptic tactic "They're trying to make money by having you over"

well, there are several similar educators teaching marketmaker based trading tactics, I was lucky enough to see (free) a 4 day internet seminar by a guy who charges $5500 per person for it, with 270 people in attendance. He claims he was trained by an ex http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salomon_Brothers marketmaker. No idea if that's true, but the basis of the system is identical to what my lot teach.

so that claim could be leveled against him, whereas our lot want a couple of hundred dollars for lifetime membership, daily sessions and open-ended email support, until you get it

that sounds like an awful lot of work trying to teach people something forever, for almost no money for a lifetime membership, if it was false, does it not? besides the fact they put the analysis out every day for free anyway, you just dont get the live sessions or forums.

So, once again, debunk everything I have shown you here please.

and re my educators, there isn't any point anybody who has commented here signing up, I can tell you that much.

I can tell you that they can turn round (5yr) losing traders, and teach brand newbies from scratch.

however I can also tell you, many still never get there at all either and fade away, because ultimately it's always going to be down to you to see it and press the buttons, and only a very few people seem to have the capability to DO.
 
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OK.

Just let us know when your account size doubles, and when you hit $1,000,000 in the account you've been referencing.

If you can keep your gains as predictable and regular as you claim, each should be possible.

Good luck!

PS - in the 1-2-3 chart, it seems like you've placed numbers wherever that pattern is detected, leaving "non-compliant" areas blank. Seems like cherry picking, in that one could do the same thing with a chart generated by coin flipping. Anyway, you're right in that I don't see that pattern.
 
Ok, some of you will be glad to hear I'm rounding this up now. I'll be honest, I expected more intellectual challenge over and above the usual shouts of "Warren Buffet! ..Taleb!" from supposedly one of the most intelligent forums on the net.

I have put up pages of accusations, theories and surmising, along with reams of screenshots of just daily goings on, and a few ongoing predictions which haven't worked out that badly either. There is reams of stuff here to be challenged, pulled apart, examined etc, I cannot help but wonder why it doesn't attract the same interest as any other subject you guys feel you need to intervene to tell the truth in.

Because that is what I WANT you to do, and on the subject matter, not my individual ability to trade it preferably, because that IS actually irrelevant. By comparison to the guys who have been doing this years I am a numpty noob.

And this is actually borne out in my trading, until maybe 3 months ago I was still taking loads of stupid entries and losing silly shots that I should never have taken, and yet.. the wins remained big enough, to still go upwards? I can tell you as a fact, nobody was as surprised as me to stumble onto something on the net, that seemed to work.

so please, somebody tell me how this is possible, an 18month-in numpty noob taking loads of terrible entries first, dragging his figures right down, but still profitable? then numpty starts trying to be a bit more selective, takes fewer trades, monthly figures accelerate dramatically.

I also understand that the vast majority of you don't know what you're looking at really, and so have tried to keep it very simple and playful, but show all the nuts and bolts at the same time.

so apologies if my muppetry language has offended, but if the daily observable phenomena that I (an 18 month in numpty noob) can see and profitably trade IS for the reasons that we surmise (and it fits trading price movement pretty well, as I think I have at least demonstrated) then we are ALL muppets. only some of us want to be pigs instead.

the logical alternatives are that there is nothing untoward at all going on and:

1. I have worked out how the mystical market actually works in 18 months.

2. I'm psychic.

neither of these seem very realistic to me, whereas the numbers and daily chuckles are as real as can be.

Lastly, a word about the other standard skeptic tactic "They're trying to make money by having you over"

well, there are several similar educators teaching marketmaker based trading tactics, I was lucky enough to see (free) a 4 day internet seminar by a guy who charges $5500 per person for it, with 270 people in attendance. He claims he was trained by an ex http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salomon_Brothers marketmaker. No idea if that's true, but the basis of the system is identical to what my lot teach.

so that claim could be leveled against him, whereas our lot want a couple of hundred dollars for lifetime membership, daily sessions and open-ended email support, until you get it

that sounds like an awful lot of work trying to teach people something forever, for almost no money for a lifetime membership, if it was false, does it not? besides the fact they put the analysis out every day for free anyway, you just dont get the live sessions or forums.

So, once again, debunk everything I have shown you here please.

and re my educators, there isn't any point anybody who has commented here signing up, I can tell you that much.

I can tell you that they can turn round (5yr) losing traders, and teach brand newbies from scratch.

however I can also tell you, many still never get there at all either and fade away, because ultimately it's always going to be down to you to see it and press the buttons, and only a very few people seem to have the capability to DO.

tl;dr
 
OK.

Just let us know when your account size doubles, and when you hit $1,000,000 in the account you've been referencing.

the $1m high leverage account I've been referencing, had I applied the Nikkei trade and the Apple trade to it is now at +$770k (Apple still live) and +115% ($1.15 million Nikkei all closed out ) = +$1.92 million.

total account size original $1m + 1.92million = $2.92 million. from Sunday when I first mentioned the idea and the Nikkei and Apple trades I would look for.

If you can keep your gains as predictable and regular as you claim, each should be possible.

Good luck!

we will see, and thanks.

PS - in the 1-2-3 chart, it seems like you've placed numbers wherever that pattern is detected, leaving "non-compliant" areas blank. Seems like cherry picking, in that one could do the same thing with a chart generated by coin flipping. Anyway, you're right in that I don't see that pattern.

not at all, I just only go back so far? you can just keep going. ok, here's a quick challenge, please pick out a random month and year, for a random FX cross, and I'll insert the cycles for you and show you where I take the trades based on exactly the system I've shown all the way through?

do you think I haven't tried this myself? :)
 
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the $1m high leverage account I've been referencing, had I applied the Nikkei trade and the Apple trade to it is now at +$770k (Apple still live) and +115% ($1.15 million Nikkei all closed out ) = +$1.92 million.


And if I had bought Microsoft at the IPO and sold it at the very top...

...and if frogs had wings...

I think I've made clear only a real account with real money with real returns after taxes and transaction costs would tend to get my attention.

Let's see how that plays out.
 
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And if I had bought Microsoft at the IPO and sold it at the very top...

...and if frogs had wings...

but seriously, you don't give any credence at all, to the fact that I actually took the trades on the exact same software, through the exact same analysis, laid out here all the way through, but on a current demo, instead of taking the 20 seconds to open a new demo and log into that to take them instead?

JREF $1m demo account @ 200 leverage x exact same process & software = game over is how I see it. I think you are being unreasonable, but preconceptions do that.

and actually the demo/real distinction is ridiculous, because if you dont think the algorithms are proven on demo prior to, you are delusional. the difference is an account number through with which you log into the same platform.

and whether or not there is a direct connection available from your trading (hence bank) account to mine.

that is the ONLY difference, so when talking trading analysis, it is entirely irrelevant.

I think I've made clear only a real account with real money with real returns after taxes and transactions costs would tend to get my attention.

Let's see how that plays out.

no problem, I understand. now how about a random FX pair eh? or do you just not want it to be exactly how I have told you it will be? :)

anyone? any FX pair, and year/month? .. stocks even? although I don't like them, they gap around like something out of Star Trek. Commodities? anything? happy to look places I haven't gone before? (like Star trek)

it does have to have an FX data feed so i can see it on my platform, but most global indices lots of big stocks all commodities pretty much, take your pick and I'll show you the cycle of life. 3 really is the magic number as it turns out :)
 
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And if I had bought Microsoft at the IPO and sold it at the very top...

...and if frogs had wings...

I think I've made clear only a real account with real money with real returns after taxes and transaction costs would tend to get my attention.

Let's see how that plays out.

How long have you got? :)
 
but seriously, you don't give any credence at all, to the fact that I actually took the trades on the exact same software, through the exact same analysis, laid out here all the way through, but on a current demo, instead of taking the 20 seconds to open a new demo and log into that to take them instead?

JREF $1m demo account @ 200 leverage x exact same process & software = game over is how I see it. I think you are being unreasonable, but preconceptions do that.

and actually the demo/real distinction is ridiculous, because if you dont think the algorithms are proven on demo prior to, you are delusional. the difference is an account number through with which you log into the same platform.

and whether or not there is a direct connection available from your trading (hence bank) account to mine.

that is the ONLY difference, so when talking trading analysis, it is entirely irrelevant.



no problem, I understand. now how about a random FX pair eh? or do you just dont want it to be exactly how I have told you it will be? :)

anyone? any FX pair, and year/month? .. stocks even? although I don't like them, they gap around like something out of Star Trek. Commodities? anything? happy to look places I haven't gone before? :) (like Star trek)

"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool." - Richard P. Feynman
 

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