The Markets, Trading & Charts Thread

[Fast Eddie B]

I'm pretty sure there is no "market" for demons in TV static.

Perhaps.

But have you considered that they may be the Forex manipulators?

 

[Fast Eddie B]

no arguments that you can get lucky gambling and waiting a decade too, but each to their own, eh?

Sore point with me, since compulsive gambling has had a major effect on my life*.

Gambler's Anonymous guidelines highly recommend that compulsive gamblers stay away from equity trading in any form. It's very easy to go from investing in municipal bonds or a stock fund, which I would not consider gambling except under the broadest use of the term, to much shorter term speculating, which I think shares much more in common with true gambling. Day trading seems to satisfy the need for "action" that long term investing does not.

But, yes, to a random-walker some luck is involved in eithet case. Buying Google or Facebook at or near their IPO's could be called a "gamble", since neither had established that they could, in fact, find a way to monetize their brand recognition.

Similarly, buying Apple when they were struggling and Steve Jobs had just come back was a "gamble", but one informed by past experience and intuition. I took a similar gamble with Chrysler a long time ago and won. I tried to repeat that pattern with Pan Am and lost.

But put a speculator who makes multiple trades in a day against an investor who may only have a handful of trades in a year, and I think most dispassioned observers could easily discern which had more in common with real gambling. But the game of "who's the gambler?" does little to advance this discussion, so I'll try to leave it at that.


*though it matters little, I was not the compulsive gambler.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

But put a speculator who makes multiple trades in a day against an investor who may only have a handful of trades in a year, and I think most dispassioned observers could easily discern which had more in common with real gambling. But the game of "who's the gambler?" does little to advance this discussion, so I'll try to leave it at that.

“Activity is the enemy of investment.” – Warren Buffett

Although, you may not want to take investment advice from a "rube" with $50 billion.

 

[kevsta]

airport lounge thoughts

Sore point with me, since compulsive gambling has had a major effect on my life*.

sorry to hear that.

Gambler's Anonymous guidelines highly recommend that compulsive gamblers stay away from equity trading in any form. It's very easy to go from investing in municipal bonds or a stock fund, which I would not consider gambling except under the broadest use of the term, to much shorter term speculating, which I think shares much more in common with true gambling. Day trading seems to satisfy the need for "action" that long term investing does not.

I think you are looking at it in the wrong context, compared to my approach anyway, maybe not compared to the 90% though.

I am not treating this as an investment, it is a job. The plan is to get up every day and make money. when I am confident enough that I can continue growing the account systematically and it has doubled at least once, then I will probably seed it with a bit more money and look to bank the first 10% profits to cover inflation every year and use the surplus as wages.

is this possible with any investments you could suggest for an initial €10k stake? more importantly, would the results be down entirely to you and your skill ? it really is a different thing.

But, yes, to a random-walker some luck is involved in eithet case. Buying Google or Facebook at or near their IPO's could be called a "gamble", since neither had established that they could, in fact, find a way to monetize their brand recognition.

Similarly, buying Apple when they were struggling and Steve Jobs had just come back was a "gamble", but one informed by past experience and intuition. I took a similar gamble with Chrysler a long time ago and won. I tried to repeat that pattern with Pan Am and lost.

But put a speculator who makes multiple trades in a day against an investor who may only have a handful of trades in a year, and I think most dispassioned observers could easily discern which had more in common with real gambling. But the game of "who's the gambler?" does little to advance this discussion, so I'll try to leave it at that.

*though it matters little, I was not the compulsive gambler.

I accept that your life experiences have left you with a certain set of beliefs, however as I have consistently said, I do not believe this is chance any more. It is now a quite tightly defined system of probability and strategy, and the more I practice it, the sharper it's getting. It's not "buy and hope" by any means.

If I were not on the move and these were live I could hit close on all 3 of these right now and that's this week's 2% banked by Tuesday morning. beach time you see as jobs go, if you can actually do it, this one is basically the dream ticket.

Added in.. trades overview
GBP trade €22.50 risk, looking for push 3 today, maybe another 70 pips if it goes?
AUD trade, as summarized a few days ago, this is the bottom I think, this could go way up, and stop is at breakeven now
EUR, still think it will break downwards but if not I get stopped at 22.5 pips = +€35.

total trade risk with all trades running (if all stopped out) is now +€12

lets see what the cycles bring me, it only needs one to run properly and we are laughing (its more of an "I knew it" chuckle these days")

so once again, I'm sorry you can't see this, but you will have to excuse my skepticism about your opinions (about trading, not everything) as mine are based on intense activity, testing and figures.

“Activity is the enemy of investment.” – Warren Buffett Although, you may not want to take investment advice from a "rube" with $50 billion.

how about

"Ineffective Activity means you get bailed out?"

 

[Fast Eddie B]

I am not treating this as an investment, it is a job.

The plan is to get up every day and make money. when I am confident enough that I can continue growing the account systematically and it has doubled at least once, then I will probably seed it with a bit more money and look to bank the first 10% profits to cover inflation every year and use the surplus as wages.

Again, good luck with that. Does not sound like the kind of job that would appeal to me, but if you can make it work, great.

As far as how much you could have made had you not been "on the move", it does seem like you're pointing out the extent that this will have to be an all consuming endeavor to work properly. I suspect that even if by Tuesday you're up enough to go to the beach, it's unlikely you'll do so with more profits just there for the taking.

Anyway, let us know when your original stake has doubled - and no fair using the amount the account sank to before you honed your strategy. That's "cherry picking" defined.

PS - do you pay any tax on your gains? If so, what is the rate and is it computed annually?

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Again, good luck with that. Does not sound like the kind of job that would appeal to me, but if you can make it work, great.

As far as how much you could have made had you not been "on the move", it does seem like you're pointing out the extent that this will have to be an all consuming endeavor to work properly. I suspect that even if by Tuesday you're up enough to go to the beach, it's unlikely you'll do so with more profits just there for the taking.

Anyway, let us know when your original stake has doubled - and no fair using the amount the account sank to before you honed your strategy. That's "cherry picking" defined.

PS - do you pay any tax on your gains? If so, what is the rate and is it computed annually?

I'd like to know when the real account doubles, not the "demo" simulation account. I'm guessing never.

I earn great returns by doing....pretty much nothing. Why spend all day in front of the computer to earn less? But then again, I'm just a "rube" like Buffett. Pretty good company I'd say.

 

[kevsta]

........

these kind of predictions im more comfortable with, because this is aligned to what Im doing every day. every time I commit my money to the game, I am making a real prediction and at every TP level it has come true.

so I think I can do significantly better than chance here.

Option 2 at this point, it rallied a bit higher than I expected but retraced leaving only another pin through the upper trend line. I'll be shorting rallies on this until they stoprun the floor (wherever it ends up being) at which point I'll go long.

[qimg]http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1375558094-clip-30kb.png[/qimg]

because Ive thought from all the way back here it was coming back down to 13500 ish before any breakout higher was possible, I was just early again, see post

so now we've been back down again, I'd be very surprised if the floor wasnt taken out prior to any big move upwards.

target is the floor at 13526 if it doesnt come back to get me first, but it's already at 1.6 : 1 risk reward, so looking promising, especially as USDJPY seems to lead it by about half a day (which could be a useful tip to the slower traders currently )

the "perfect" trade would see me exit at the very end of the downwards stoprun of the floor and reverse, .. one day..

looks like probability might be about to win out over chance once more?

I sure do seem to be lucky, eh.

landed, airport lounge other end..

If I making this look easy, then that is the greatest compliment really, isnt it, because this is theoretically impossible to be so precise about, isn't it?

I first started looking at the Nikkei in early May here so is it theoretically possible I should be able to watch it for a while, acclimatize myself to it's own cycles, and then trade it for a laugh with this level of accuracy and confidence, based around standard Forex SM cycle theory? all the while getting on with my bread & butter forex, plus another job too?

this trade is now at +4% and no risk. should I wait for +10%? bank the 4? decisions decisions. it's definitely a tough life lol.

please also bear in mind I did this while traveling and in airport lounges on one small laptop. because of this, it is unfortunately not live, but if you still don't think I can pull this off more than 50% of the time, you should probably leave this thread now, as this is not for you.

If I still have your interest, there is more..

[qimg]http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1375625404-clip-36kb.png[/qimg]

although the cycles seem to run quite well, trading this is another thing entirely, unless you can just get lucky and take the big ones that then gap in your direction, because a $30 gap when you have a $5 stoploss is a 6% hit instead of 1%.

the range of the cycles expands and contracts very fast too, by comparison to Forex where Average Daily Range is quite precise usually.

definitely only swing trading material I think, maybe hit it every month or 2 with smaller positions and wider stops when a really promising looking one sets up. like soon, for a short, by the looks of it. ok what about if I teach myself to trade AAPL and trade it exclusively on the $1m demo, and still pull it off?

I shorted it half size yesterday (demo) and it got hit on open today, however on this one I had also anticipated possibly another rush at the highs and set an auto order. it started with a gap down today (a gap in your direction is always a good thing) then they rushed the top again hit all the short stops (including mine) and immediately retraced again, (auto) game on.

If Im right and this is the reversal, somewhere round about 400 is the target floor again at this point. we shall see. I'll take some off before that anyway.

its really not so hard people. for a clever lot like you, if you could deal with your preconceptions and emotional issues, theres nobody here (except one maybe) who wouldnt be able to understand at least, even if not perform.

I'll add that if taken on my theoretical JREF $1m demo I should be closing the AAPL trade around now at + 5.35% or $53500. lulz. or was that one going to be on higher leverage and greater risk?

at 200x leverage and 5% risk that's er.. $53500 x10? lulz again.

does that help?

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

The faces of the fallen.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

at 200x leverage and 5% risk that's er.. $53500 x10? lulz again.

does that help?

Again, let us know if and when you've doubled your stake.

The rest is really just talk (and pretty pictures).

And its good to remember that one can walk into any casino and walk up to the roulette wheel with $10,000 and bet red or black or odd or even or high or low and have close to an even chance of doubling his or her stake.

Sounds like a lot less work!

 

[kevsta]

Again, let us know if and when you've doubled your stake. The rest is really just talk (and pretty pictures).

And its good to remember that one can walk into any casino and walk up to the roulette wheel with $10,000 and bet red or black or odd or even or high or low and have close to an even chance of doubling his or her stake.

Sounds like a lot less work!

seriously? I put all this work in to show you that what I can see is as real as anything I've ever seen, and that's it?

why are you avoiding all my questions? why doesn't a single person want to suggest a single alternate theory for the very clear 3 push market cycles in every single thing? how is it, could it be, possible that news never rarely breaks this, only interrupts for a bit?

Im not trying to sell you anything I'm looking for intelligent insight. But then I suppose I should remember that half the people that I and the other winning traders can take money off at potentially uber leverage are your pension fund managers and stuff, so maybe I'm being a little insensitive.

it will certainly make me laugh very much if AAPL does now run all way down to $400. at 5% trade risk and a $1m dollar account at 200x leverage if I cashed out $70 lower that's a $7m trade.

would that have any effect on your views I wonder, 700% with 2 trades? its too much to hope for really, but stranger things have happened, and do all the time in these "markets".

does it not really concern people that your investments are subject to an independent market cycle on both macro and micro levels and can be driven like a child's trike by the Forex markets?

it would worry me people, and I would dare say I know a great deal more about the every day goings on in this now than most of you.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Again, let us know if and when you've doubled your stake.

Real money, not simulations.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

why are you avoiding all my questions? why doesn't a single person want to suggest a single alternate theory for the very clear 3 push market cycles in every single thing? how is it, could it be, possible that news never rarely breaks this, only interrupts for a bit?

For the same reason we don't "suggest" alternate theories for faces in static or lines on tea leaves. This is a skeptics forum, after all.

 

[kevsta]

For the same reason we don't "suggest" alternate theories for faces in static or lines on tea leaves. This is a skeptics forum, after all.

so lets please move this away from me now then?

state your position on trading and markets?

1. why is it so difficult to win?
2. who wins all the time? it is after all a zero sum game, for every muppet there is someone chuckling?
3. you refuse to acknowledge 1,2,3 ?
4. you refuse to acknowledge FX correlations?
5 added. (despite me explaining in careful detail exactly how and why it is very much more difficult than "chance", I bet that's your best answer)

what else? see the thing is, I know you (in particular, cant speak for all of JREF yet) have none.

 

[kevsta]

Nikkei day 2. can one trade make +15% in a day or 2? it's at +10% currently. it's quite irritating having to wait for the Japan session to open for trends to continue though.

BANK!! 3/5 closed @ +5%

remaining 2/5 aiming at that floor, which doesnt look so far away again now

and er, applied to the theoretical 200x leverage JREF account, this one trade is now er.. +100% or $1 million

 

[kevsta]

Real money, not simulations.

I do need to thoroughly test the higher leverage model on micro live before taking it bigger.

my broker will allow up to 500x leverage, so I'm thinking maybe a $2-500 micro account trading at 2-3% risk per trade. if you want to suggest any instrument traded on there I will attempt to study it, and trade it exclusively, and double the account in the first few trades? any good?

 

[kevsta]

market principles - distribution.

Well as nobody wants to talk to me lets do some more basic facts anyway for lurkers. If you are reading this and not really familiar with basic market principles, this document, up until about page 25ish when it starts to get trading specific is essential reading http://vsa.pipbuilders.com/mtmv3.pdf

Page 20 Distribution

At the potential top of a bull market, many professional traders will be looking to sell stock bought at lower levels to take profits. Most of these traders will place large orders to sell, not at the current price available, but at a specified price range. Any selling has to be absorbed by the market-makers, who have to create a 'market’. Some sell orders will be filled immediately, some go, figuratively, 'onto the books‘. The marketmakers in turn have to resell, which has to be accomplished without putting the price down against their own, or other traders’ selling. This process is known as distribution, and it will normally take some time for the process to complete.

In the early stages of distribution, if the selling is so great that prices are forced down, the selling will stop and the price will be supported, which gives the market-maker, and other traders, the chance to sell more stock on the next wave up. Once the professionals have sold most of their holdings, a bear market starts, because markets tend to fall without professional support.

given what happens to retail traders buying a fakeout stoprun at the highs, ie they pay significantly more spread for it, right as the floor falls out, it might be useful to be able to identify distribution on a larger scale?

this is in fact probably one of the only genuinely useful indicators out there, because all it does is measure when the spread starts to fluctuate outside normal paramaters, and draw an aqua blue line on the pin of that bar where it was doing it.

and when we look at Apple, at the top of a surge, what have we got, exactly where the stock is likely going into "distribution" now at intermediate cycle level (note red line, top of push 3) the price first puts 2 pins through my line and closing back down ON it, reverses, then comes back up puts another pin through and sells off hard again, then mysteriously floats back upwards with "enhanced" spreads, and spends the next 2 days selling over the line at inflated margin, whips the spread in again for 3 bars and pops up a level, spends the next day cruising the highs and then whips the price away again, the whole time inflating the spreads on and off, and in fact all the way down so far too.
could any comparisons to the original text be drawn here?

inflating the spread also ensures people selling (short) here are getting a lower start price too btw. (a pip here and a pip there times a few hundred billion in shadow banking leverage and pretty soon you're talking real money)

this spread phenomona is not seen during fast moves. it is not possible to tell if this is adjusted by my broker or how it comes down the line to them, from the Apple derivative I'm trading but it doesn't do it all the way up the pushes, only occasionally around the turns.

aqua blue lines wont help you much at smaller timescales or if you've got cycle wrong BTW and there's never anything to say it cant pop up another level either.

but outsized bid ask spreads where us distrustful traders are now looking for SM selling to muppets (and lower shorting prices available) doesn't contradict the thesis either, does it? time will tell.

it is of course possible I'm wrong and lose yet, but I only ever said I could do 50/50 and its been a bit higher than that in this thread so far hasn't it.

here's the other one. another 10th off +2.5% banked, because it could well bounce here and still be going down, in which case well get another good thrust and I'll be heavier loaded next time if so (and live )

so, from the original (pre) prediction, (lets call them "soft" predictions, where there's no money riding on them, as opposed to hard predictions where the predictor will bet his own money on it) where I first soft predicted that I would be hard predicting the shorting of the rallies,

Option 2 at this point, it rallied a bit higher than I expected but retraced leaving only another pin through the upper trend line. I'll be shorting rallies on this until they stoprun the floor (wherever it ends up being) at which point I'll go long.

through to the real prediction (that would most definitely have been live were I able to) which then ran exactly as predicted..

notice the futures demo account is also up +12.4% over the same period, double the real one in fact, with a total of 7 trades. that is the kind of model that suits swing trading from what I can see.

I know the honest amongst you are at least wondering. I think I can pretty much play this game hooked up to anything, because it is just small percentage gains and risk reward that count.

So along with being willing to set up a high leverage micro account, I will also make another hard prediction, to any person that can download MT4 and open a $100K demo (any members here I mean, try trading 100k on the real same platform) make more than 20 trades and still be positive I'll pay you $50 via Paypal. (and offer you an internship probably)

I soft predict that unless you were to study and learn what I have shown you correctly, (and you won't) then I will never have to pay out on that hard prediction. even on demo, with no money emotions at play, I'll still give $10 to anybody with more than 50% of the account left after 20 (proper position size) trades lol. (no getting lucky on your first one and taking 0.01 size for the next 19 trades, obviously)

the stats are very much on my side. and if you were to all play this and lose, and I can double an account every few trades, I think it would be checkmate, wouldn't it.

All the Marketmakers have to do in fact is put up a "Market" let the herd play, run the cycles, take the other side of your trades, and the money falls into their pockets. and the higher you leverage up, the more and faster they will take your money.

 

[kevsta]

1,2,3.. 1, 1 ,2......3, 1.. 2, 3..

edit, it gets funner, because what are the probabilities of a stoprun of the lows, that we would be looking for prior to push 3, happening once again ON a line, that I drew weeks ago and have been looking at as a "high probability manipulation" point, ever since

Psychics'R'us

and probably a final one I think, for the Canadians.

lets just let the trading talk now shall we?

 

[kevsta]

should we look at market correlations? what indices are people personally interested in?

I'm sure we can probably find the ramp and carry currencies for most of them if we look?

although I'm now suspecting maybe you'd just rather not know?

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

should we look at market correlations? what indices are people personally interested in?

I'm sure we can probably find the ramp and carry currencies for most of them if we look?

although I'm now suspecting maybe you'd just rather not know?

Or we don't care.

 

[kevsta]

Or we don't care.

because you're so rich you dont care blah de blah de blah.

you and Buffy may have gotten lucky because you we're born in a place with opportunity smack bang in the middle of the world's greatest free money boom and gotten bailed out when it all failed, but others reading this might not be so lucky.

every single post you ever "contribute" always has a smack of "look how rich I am (and Buffy) " but could you try and think of others for once please?

because I will tell you as a fact, if I had stumbled onto this thread a year ago, I guarantee it would have turned my world around.

there may be many others reading this in the same position, who really do not give a flying ...... about how rich you and Buffy are.

if just one of them ever gets there partially due to my input then the favour will have been repaid.