eight bits
Graduate Poster
- Joined
- Sep 5, 2012
- Messages
- 1,580
Norseman
There are a lot of ways to explain it, but all are statements about me, and don't bind anybody else in any way. For example, If I owned a lottery ticket that paid $1 just when a historical Jesus who counts existed, and the correct answer will be revealed in five minutes, then if you pay me 60 cents right now, or anything more than that, then the ticket is yours, with my best wishes. Fifty-five cents? No, I'd rather play. Don't ask about 59 cents, my statement isn't that precise.
I offered it for disclosure, since I have been repeatedly accused of being a myther-mythicist. I am not, and am happy to state what I am instead. It is the "60" that would take time to explain. If my recent posts are such that I can be accused of mythicism, then it must already be clear why the "40" isn't any smaller number.
Brainache
Good catch on Origen, seconding or thirding the accolades you have received. What Josephus volunteers about the Emperor precisely parallels what actual Christians back then were choosing death instead of mouthing under duress.
Jayson
Importance as such isn't the difficulty. Selecting a particular example to look at because it is atypical would raise questions about inferences from what is typical.
What I object to is the estimation of an attribute of a case chosen for its atypicality by inheritance from what is typical of a group that includes the case of interest. The problem is aggravated when the reference group is assembled around a case already selected, and mitigated when there is a specific reason to think that the atypicality is unrelated to the typicalness of the group feature.
For example: A. Jewish people of the time and place usually spoke Aramaic. Estimate that Jesus, if he lived, spoke Aramaic.
That's child play to constuct an argument where native language is unrelated to why we selected Jesus for examination.
B. Galilean people typically did not speak Greek as a second language. Conclude that Jesus did not speak Greek.
Wait a minute, we selected Jesus, in part, because he connected with Greek speakers. Literally everything original we have about him reaches us from Greek-speaking authors. This inference needs further examination.
C. All other ancient homeland Messianic figures with surviving followers really lived. Conclude Jesus did.
Say what? Jesus reaches us with 3 billion professed believers in his historicity, by way of (easily) tens of billions of people being or having been persuaded, in a chain that reaches back almost 2,000 years. Perhaps made-up people are more believable than real people are (ask a successful realist fiction writer about that - and know that the last Nantucket whaling captain whose name is lost to history will be Captain Ahab.)
At the very least, the possibility that synthetic lube is better than the natural stuff needs to be addressed. In Piggy's case, asking for lube of any kind is met with abuse.
I think that's me, not Jayson. It is, like all subjective probability, a representation of some person's beliefs, mine in this case.Then how do you arrive at your 60-40 split in favor of historicity?
There are a lot of ways to explain it, but all are statements about me, and don't bind anybody else in any way. For example, If I owned a lottery ticket that paid $1 just when a historical Jesus who counts existed, and the correct answer will be revealed in five minutes, then if you pay me 60 cents right now, or anything more than that, then the ticket is yours, with my best wishes. Fifty-five cents? No, I'd rather play. Don't ask about 59 cents, my statement isn't that precise.
I offered it for disclosure, since I have been repeatedly accused of being a myther-mythicist. I am not, and am happy to state what I am instead. It is the "60" that would take time to explain. If my recent posts are such that I can be accused of mythicism, then it must already be clear why the "40" isn't any smaller number.
Brainache
Good catch on Origen, seconding or thirding the accolades you have received. What Josephus volunteers about the Emperor precisely parallels what actual Christians back then were choosing death instead of mouthing under duress.
Jayson
Size matters when the size is one, yes. The smaller the sample, even when taken randomly, the better the chance of fnding atypical features. There are well known trade-offs, esepcially in multi-attribute inference, which is what Piggy is presenting, between optimizing the average error over the suite of inferences, and accurately estimating a specific attribute of a specific member of the population.Are you saying that if a figure is important to our culture that there needs to be a larger sample size of material from previous cultures to judge their historicity from?
Importance as such isn't the difficulty. Selecting a particular example to look at because it is atypical would raise questions about inferences from what is typical.
What I object to is the estimation of an attribute of a case chosen for its atypicality by inheritance from what is typical of a group that includes the case of interest. The problem is aggravated when the reference group is assembled around a case already selected, and mitigated when there is a specific reason to think that the atypicality is unrelated to the typicalness of the group feature.
For example: A. Jewish people of the time and place usually spoke Aramaic. Estimate that Jesus, if he lived, spoke Aramaic.
That's child play to constuct an argument where native language is unrelated to why we selected Jesus for examination.
B. Galilean people typically did not speak Greek as a second language. Conclude that Jesus did not speak Greek.
Wait a minute, we selected Jesus, in part, because he connected with Greek speakers. Literally everything original we have about him reaches us from Greek-speaking authors. This inference needs further examination.
C. All other ancient homeland Messianic figures with surviving followers really lived. Conclude Jesus did.
Say what? Jesus reaches us with 3 billion professed believers in his historicity, by way of (easily) tens of billions of people being or having been persuaded, in a chain that reaches back almost 2,000 years. Perhaps made-up people are more believable than real people are (ask a successful realist fiction writer about that - and know that the last Nantucket whaling captain whose name is lost to history will be Captain Ahab.)
At the very least, the possibility that synthetic lube is better than the natural stuff needs to be addressed. In Piggy's case, asking for lube of any kind is met with abuse.