The "Hindenburg Omen" now statistically confirmed, and we just had another one.

Muldur said:
@ Puppycow:

100% chance of a significant negative event within the next 4 months (give or take a week)

67.8 percent probability that a stock market decline of at least 5 percent will occur.

48.5 percent probability that a sharp decline greater than 8.0 percent will occur

35.6 percent probability that at least a panic sell-off will occur (a decline greater than 10 percent)

25.8 percent probability of a financial system-threatening, "life-as-we-know-it-threatening" crash

(Note that the probabilities specified cumulatively add up to over 100% due to category overlap)
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100% chance that whoever is putting out this kind of garbage is either wanting to buy stocks at the moment, rather than sell, or they're wanting to sell gold and other hedge items.
 
Puppycow said:
So what index are we supposed to use to judge this?

The NYSE composite index?

So let's just note for the record that the NYSE composite index closed at 9,357.08 on June 3rd, 2013 and see what happens.
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Puppycow said:
In case it's the DJIA, the previous close was 15,254.03.

And the previous close of the S&P 500 was 1,640.42.
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Day 1:
NYSE Composite: 9320.09 down 0.40%
DJIA: 15177.54 down 0.50%
S&P 500: 1631.38 down 0.55%
 
Muldur said:
The research is very complete and impressive. Predictive models are often tweaked and improved over time, which results in increased accuracy.

Would either of you two hyenas care to actually address the FACTS, rather than your usual brand of snark?
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Have they actually made any predictions that were specific and came true? That would be the only relevant fact.
 
I take the point about "tweaking" models, as of course models and theories do evolve over time based on whether they were successful or whether they failed previously.

However, in essence, if the earlier definition of the Hindenburg Omen did not successfully predict a stock market crash, then the model, as it then was, is a failure.

Also, whilst there are, of course, models that can predict things with a reasonable degree of success, it pays to remember that correlation does not equal causation. Roosters crow every morning. Just because I happen to drop my morning cup of coffee on my foot one day as the rooster crows, does not mean that the rooster made me drop my coffee cup.
 
Puppycow said:
Day 1:
NYSE Composite: 9320.09 down 0.40%
DJIA: 15177.54 down 0.50%
S&P 500: 1631.38 down 0.55%
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Day 2:
NYSE Composite: 9,178.42 down 1.52%
DJIA: 14,960.59 down 1.43%
S&P 500: 1,608.90 down 1.38%

Combined with the day 1 fall that's almost a 2% decline already.

I think that 2% declines are a rather common occurrence though and fall under "normal ups and downs". However, it could decline further.
 
Is it just me or does the OP ,(judging by his posting history) really want a massive economic catastrophe to happen?
Given his pretty hard left views on economics and politics,I suspect he thinks a massive economic collapse will read to the downfall of the capitalist system,and the triumph of whatever the hell system he supports.
 
The name isn't cool enough yet. How about the "Hindenburg Omen Phenomena 2.0 feat. Pit Bull by Michael Bay"?
 
dudalb said:
Is it just me or does the OP ,(judging by his posting history) really want a massive economic catastrophe to happen?
Given his pretty hard left views on economics and politics,I suspect he thinks a massive economic collapse will read to the downfall of the capitalist system,and the triumph of whatever the hell system he supports.
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If that is the case then I hope that the OP doesn't rely on society an any way.
 
There has been a second one, 2 in 3 days, known as a cluster, and is a "confirmation" of the first.

so if we don't get a reasonably dramatic move this time, its obviously rubbish.

and the Nikkei didn't get any omens and dropped 19.5% in the last 11 days.
 
dudalb said:
Is it just me or does the OP ,(judging by his posting history) really want a massive economic catastrophe to happen?
Given his pretty hard left views on economics and politics,I suspect he thinks a massive economic collapse will read to the downfall of the capitalist system,and the triumph of whatever the hell system he supports.
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Lunatics on every political fringe get a hard-on at the thought of a massive catastrophe, economic or some other sort. They have essentially two roads to power: armed revolution (for which they don't have the numbers) and a dramatic upheaval which turns the masses that now live in comfort into bitter losers looking for someone to blame.
 
timhau said:
Lunatics on every political fringe get a hard-on at the thought of a massive catastrophe, economic or some other sort. They have essentially two roads to power: armed revolution (for which they don't have the numbers)....
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Or the courage. See: right wing gun nuts.
 
Puppycow said:
Day 2:
NYSE Composite: 9,178.42 down 1.52%
DJIA: 14,960.59 down 1.43%
S&P 500: 1,608.90 down 1.38%

Combined with the day 1 fall that's almost a 2% decline already.

I think that 2% declines are a rather common occurrence though and fall under "normal ups and downs". However, it could decline further.
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Day 3:
NYSE Composite: 9,260.50 up 0.89%
DJIA: 15,040.62 up 0.53%
S&P 500: 1,622.56 up 0.85%
 
Puppycow said:
Day 3:
NYSE Composite: 9,260.50 up 0.89%
DJIA: 15,040.62 up 0.53%
S&P 500: 1,622.56 up 0.85%
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Day 4:
NYSE Composite: 9,355.41 up 1.02%
DJIA: 15,248.12 up 1.38%
S&P 500: 1,643.38 up 1.28%

This brings all three indices back to almost where they started on June 3rd.

I think I'll stop posting updates every day and only post at the end of the week or if there's a big move in the stock market.
 
So the OP intreperted one of the normal up/down cycles in the Stock Market as a sign of Impending Doom?. Not surprised.......
 
Puppycow said:
Day 4:
NYSE Composite: 9,355.41 up 1.02%
DJIA: 15,248.12 up 1.38%
S&P 500: 1,643.38 up 1.28%
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End of week 2:
NYSE Composite: 9,263.69 down 1% (from the baseline of 9,357.08)
DJIA: 15,070.18 down 1.21% (from the baseline of 15,254.03)
S&P 500: 1,626.73 down 0.83% (from the baseline of 1,640.42)
 
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