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Continuation Part 5: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

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One can also ask, why not simply dispose of this knife.


Then he would have to reconcile with the landlord. The cost of the knife would be taken out of his damage deposited. No, better to bring the murder weapon back to your own appartment. What's 30 years when compared to the replacement cost of a knife.
 
Doubt Rudy went round telling anyone he was a burglar. His name would gave come up earlier if the boys knew that.

He wouldn't need to tell anyone, you might be able to guess by acquisition and spending patterns (repeated appearance of things he can't afford on his wages, that tend to disappear shortly after, spare cash despite 'buying' lots of things). If the boys knew Rudy, they might have known several men like him. I know I've certainly known a few (with the same 'finance' pattern). They might not have known he'd skipped town at all, even assuming they knew the police were looking for a burglar.

Whether the knew he was a burglar or not (probably not) is a side issue to whether or not he would have thought they might suspect he was the burglar if he broke into the downstairs.

Didn't the boys also have to pay their rent? Why wouldn't they also have cash stuffed under their pillows?

Difficult to say. Certainly, if you're in the habit of having pot-parties around your house, you might be less inclined to leave money around out of habit, especially if you're out of town.

Maybe the sex of the occupants had something to do with it but in what way I don't know. It's two empty apartments, one easily accessible and one not and he chose the harder one.

Well, from what I've learn't over the years living in a dodgy town and knowing some dodgy people, it's likely that the upstairs was a significantly more attractive option than downstairs - second exit (actually third if you include the balcony!), all female occupants, professional occupants, student occupants, whereas downstairs appears to be all male, one exit.

I can't seem to locate the photos of the downstairs, but it didn't look like they had much worth stealing.

It does bring up the interesting idea that upstairs may have been broken into because it was the harder of the two, a sort of mastery challenge if you will.

Personally, I see value in the idea that he twigged onto the opportunity whilst leaving and picked the first sweet spot he could see - the window that is visible from the drive.
 
He wouldn't need to tell anyone, you might be able to guess by acquisition and spending patterns (repeated appearance of things he can't afford on his wages, that tend to disappear shortly after, spare cash despite 'buying' lots of things). If the boys knew Rudy, they might have known several men like him. I know I've certainly known a few (with the same 'finance' pattern). They might not have known he'd skipped town at all, even assuming they knew the police were looking for a burglar.

Whether the knew he was a burglar or not (probably not) is a side issue to whether or not he would have thought they might suspect he was the burglar if he broke into the downstairs.



Difficult to say. Certainly, if you're in the habit of having pot-parties around your house, you might be less inclined to leave money around out of habit, especially if you're out of town.



Well, from what I've learn't over the years living in a dodgy town and knowing some dodgy people, it's likely that the upstairs was a significantly more attractive option than downstairs - second exit (actually third if you include the balcony!), all female occupants, professional occupants, student occupants, whereas downstairs appears to be all male, one exit.

I can't seem to locate the photos of the downstairs, but it didn't look like they had much worth stealing.

It does bring up the interesting idea that upstairs may have been broken into because it was the harder of the two, a sort of mastery challenge if you will.

Personally, I see value in the idea that he twigged onto the opportunity whilst leaving and picked the first sweet spot he could see - the window that is visible from the drive.

What do you mean, 'whilst leaving'?
 
I think you're way over-analysing this. You can't declare that someone didn't do something which is perfectly possible, not wildly unreasonable, and is in accordance with the evidence, just because you think that you personally would have done something different.

I'll get suspended if I give you the example I'm thinking of, but it's really not rational, and it can lead to all sorts of bizarre conclusions.

I mean, how many times have you done something one way, and someone else has said, that's daft why didn't you do it this other (maybe easier or more elegant) way, and you reply, duh I didn't think of that! Or else you explain the additional circumstance that applied that made what you actually did the best choice at the time.

Reasons for choosing to do B rather than A can be complex or trivial, but if B isn't utterly self-evidently nuts, or impossible, you can't rule it out just because you personally would have done A.

Rolfe.
 
I don't believe the story he told his buddy on the Skype call where he claims Meredith (who by many accounts wasn't promiscuous, had a boyfriend and seem to have the character not to cheat on him with Rudy) and he planned to meet the previous day:

Well the first stories referred to her as a party girl. The early stories had quotes from several bar owners that knew her from frequent visits. She by all accounts went to a party without the new downstairs boyfriend and stayed until 4 or 5 am. She was a perfectly normal college aged girl and was doing what they do. The boyfriend stated that their relationship wasn't a serious one, as in long term or exclusive.

Meredith was a girl that was enjoying herself much as Amanda and the other girls were.

After about a week the stories in the paper including the police statements changed and the devil/angel contrast was begun.
 
I think you're way over-analysing this. You can't declare that someone didn't do something which is perfectly possible, not wildly unreasonable, and is in accordance with the evidence, just because you think that you personally would have done something different.

I'll get suspended if I give you the example I'm thinking of, but it's really not rational, and it can lead to all sorts of bizarre conclusions.

I mean, how many times have you done something one way, and someone else has said, that's daft why didn't you do it this other (maybe easier or more elegant) way, and you reply, duh I didn't think of that! Or else you explain the additional circumstance that applied that made what you actually did the best choice at the time.

Reasons for choosing to do B rather than A can be complex or trivial, but if B isn't utterly self-evidently nuts, or impossible, you can't rule it out just because you personally would have done A.

Rolfe.

Er, who are you addressing Rolfe?
 
The entire bunch of you who are speculating that Rudy would have chosen to break into the lower flat, rather than the upper one. Or would have chosen a different window or something. It's pointless.

Rolfe.
 
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The entire bunch of you who are speculating that Rudy would have chosen to break into the lower flat, rather than the upper one. Or would have chosen a different window or something. It's pointless.

Rolfe.

No one is speculating. I just asked why he didn't. Your answer can get added to the pile - there is no big deal about it. Fine. I just wondered what people thought. I am not sure it's meaningless but I don't know the meaning, if any.
 
Please go ahead. If I'm wrong, I'll own up to it. But I'm not. No evidence about the lamp was ever introduced. It is not mentioned in either the Massei or Hellmann report.

I'm way behind in this fascinating back and forth, so this is probably been posted.

Neither she nor Raffaele had seen the inside of Meredith’s room after the door was broken down. The news reported about this was what they had heard from the people who were present, and who were talking about it. As for the black lamp discovered in Meredith’s room, she couldn’t give an explanation. She remembered that she had an identical lamp, but she didn’t know if it was still there, since she didn’t pay attention to it.
 
My opinion only. The approach your posts take seem like you're claiming superiority. You say things as if fact, but rarely say why.

Can you comment on these things that are in the Massei Report, which are items which to me suggest innocence for the two students, but which Massei finds as factual even as his court convicted the pair.

1) no mixed blood of AK/MK at the crime scene
2) no motive for AK or RS to have been involved (Massei says that they were at the cottage by chance and got caught up in Rudy's motive)
3) there was no bad relationship between Knox and Kercher at all (meaning that Massei rejected the reason why Mignini put Filomena and the British friends on the stand)
4) there is no psychopathology found in the two students at all. (Buttresses lack of motive.)
5) there is not a single trace of Amanda Knox found in the murder room (Whereas if you'd seen the cartoon Mignini showed in court, there would have been a full forensic profile of Knox and Sollecito on their clothes and left in the murder room.
6) Massei only discusses a theoretical clean-up in the hall way, not in the murder room.
7) Massei concedes that there is nothing in science to rule out a single attacker. (Massei comes to the conclusion of multiple attackers on other grounds; but in principle, a single attacker is eminently possible.)
8) the climb in through Filomena's window is very possible, Massei rejects it on grounds other than its do-ability. But it is eminently possible, acc. to Massei.
9) There is no constant changing of stories from Amanda Knox. There are variations of minor details, but her own recounting of her alibi is consistent (acc. to Massei!)
10) Raffaele called the carabinieri before the postal police arrived
11) Rudy Guede had no contact at all with Raffaele before the murder and one or two brief encounters with Knox where basically they were in the same room.​

It would be better to stick with items of fact rather than call people names. Can you comment on these things as facts as found by Judge Massei?


correct me if I'm wrong, but are you confusing Massei with Hellman? Because I could swear Massei was on the jury that found Knox and Raff guilty in the first trial, but your post seems to imply that Massei pretty much thought the two were innocent and no evidence against them?
 
My opinion only. The approach your posts take seem like you're claiming superiority. You say things as if fact, but rarely say why.

Can you comment on these things that are in the Massei Report, which are items which to me suggest innocence for the two students, but which Massei finds as factual even as his court convicted the pair.
1) no mixed blood of AK/MK at the crime scene
2) no motive for AK or RS to have been involved (Massei says that they were at the cottage by chance and got caught up in Rudy's motive)
3) there was no bad relationship between Knox and Kercher at all (meaning that Massei rejected the reason why Mignini put Filomena and the British friends on the stand)
4) there is no psychopathology found in the two students at all. (Buttresses lack of motive.)
5) there is not a single trace of Amanda Knox found in the murder room (Whereas if you'd seen the cartoon Mignini showed in court, there would have been a full forensic profile of Knox and Sollecito on their clothes and left in the murder room.
6) Massei only discusses a theoretical clean-up in the hall way, not in the murder room.
7) Massei concedes that there is nothing in science to rule out a single attacker. (Massei comes to the conclusion of multiple attackers on other grounds; but in principle, a single attacker is eminently possible.)
8) the climb in through Filomena's window is very possible, Massei rejects it on grounds other than its do-ability. But it is eminently possible, acc. to Massei.
9) There is no constant changing of stories from Amanda Knox. There are variations of minor details, but her own recounting of her alibi is consistent (acc. to Massei!)
10) Raffaele called the carabinieri before the postal police arrived
11) Rudy Guede had no contact at all with Raffaele before the murder and one or two brief encounters with Knox where basically they were in the same room.​
It would be better to stick with items of fact rather than call people names. Can you comment on these things as facts as found by Judge Massei?
correct me if I'm wrong, but are you confusing Massei with Hellman? Because I could swear Massei was on the jury that found Knox and Raff guilty in the first trial, but your post seems to imply that Massei pretty much thought the two were innocent and no evidence against them?
Nope. All of the above is from Massei's motivations report. To be fair, one could also list 11 things which Massei says which supports his guilty verdict, but all those 11 items above are gleaned directly from the convicting report.

I had the same reaction as you the first time I read the report. I thought I was reading the wrong report.
 
The entire bunch of you who are speculating that Rudy would have chosen to break into the lower flat, rather than the upper one. Or would have chosen a different window or something. It's pointless.

Rolfe.

Yeah, the only way to find out is to ask Guede, and Mignini has ensured he will never answer by saying Guede's break-in officially never happened. Even if Guede gets out and tells "Perugia Today" exactly why and how the break-in occurred, Mignini would silence Guede and the newspaper immediately with whatever kind of "calunnia" charge he has at his disposal to ensure freedom of speech in Italy doesn't stomp all over his conspiracy theory, IMO.
 
My opinion only. The approach your posts take seem like you're claiming superiority. You say things as if fact, but rarely say why.

Can you comment on these things that are in the Massei Report, which are items which to me suggest innocence for the two students, but which Massei finds as factual even as his court convicted the pair.

1) no mixed blood of AK/MK at the crime scene
2) no motive for AK or RS to have been involved (Massei says that they were at the cottage by chance and got caught up in Rudy's motive)
3) there was no bad relationship between Knox and Kercher at all (meaning that Massei rejected the reason why Mignini put Filomena and the British friends on the stand)
4) there is no psychopathology found in the two students at all. (Buttresses lack of motive.)
5) there is not a single trace of Amanda Knox found in the murder room (Whereas if you'd seen the cartoon Mignini showed in court, there would have been a full forensic profile of Knox and Sollecito on their clothes and left in the murder room.
6) Massei only discusses a theoretical clean-up in the hall way, not in the murder room.
7) Massei concedes that there is nothing in science to rule out a single attacker. (Massei comes to the conclusion of multiple attackers on other grounds; but in principle, a single attacker is eminently possible.)
8) the climb in through Filomena's window is very possible, Massei rejects it on grounds other than its do-ability. But it is eminently possible, acc. to Massei.
9) There is no constant changing of stories from Amanda Knox. There are variations of minor details, but her own recounting of her alibi is consistent (acc. to Massei!)
10) Raffaele called the carabinieri before the postal police arrived
11) Rudy Guede had no contact at all with Raffaele before the murder and one or two brief encounters with Knox where basically they were in the same room.​

It would be better to stick with items of fact rather than call people names. Can you comment on these things as facts as found by Judge Massei?

I found a summary of the Massei report at True Justice by that Peggy woman at PMF. (me and her are not exactly fond of each other so i'm setting aside my ego to post this) It seems to contradict your point 7 in which you argue that Massei thinks there could have just been a single attacker. Doesn't seem like he thought that at all and obviously if single attacker possible, that would make it easier to find the other two innocent. they didn't find them innocent b/c they thought there must have been 3 attackers.

here is what Massei thought and it isn't how you rpresent it:
Massei believes Meredith’s injuries lie at the heart of the debate over the single attacker versus the multiple attacker scenarios. The hypothesis of a single attacker requires that the single attacker continually modify their actions, first by exercising a strong restraining pressure on her, producing significant bruising, and then for some reason switching to life threatening actions with a knife, thereby changing the very nature of the attack from that of subjugation to that of intimidation with a deadly weapon, and finally to extreme violence by striking first from the right penetrating to a depth of 4cm (1.5 inches) and then from the left to a depth of 8cm (3 inches) into the neck.[371]

Massei describes the first knife blow coming from the right by saying that it was apparently halted from going any deeper by hitting the jawbone. The Court considered that this blow was an effort to force Meredith to submit to an action against her will. The Court also considered that the penetrating knife wound from the left was preceded by the action of running the knife over the surface of the skin on the same part of Meredith’s neck, just a few centimeters below the eventual strike zone where the serious, deeper second wound was inflicted.[371]

What surprised Massei about Meredith’s wounds was that in spite of all the changes in approach during the attack she somehow remained in the same vulnerable position, leaving the same part of her neck fully exposed to an attacker. If this were a solo attacker then this person released a firm restraining grip on Meredith to somehow bring a knife into play, then striking her first from the right and then switching the knife-holding hand to somehow float a knife in an intimidating manner across her neck on the left, before finally stabbing her in that same location on the left with a final debilitating blow.[371-372]

Massei concludes that throughout the attack Meredith remained virtually motionless, and he cites the almost nonexistence of defensive wounds on other parts of her body in comparison to the number, distribution, and diversity of impressive bruises and wounds to her face and neck. Massei finds this disproportion to be a significant factor, particularly when considering Meredith’s physical and personality characteristics.[370,371]

Meredith’s physical build was described as being slim and strong; possessing a physique that would have permitted her to move with agility. In addition, Meredith was described as being athletic and one who practised football, karate, and boxing.[369] Therefore, the court found it unlikely that only one person performed the attack against her, and inevitable that several people had acted together against Meredith; a group who forcibly restrained Meredith in movement so that she could not defend herself in any way nor shield herself with her hands in order to avoid the repeated attacks to her neck.[371]

Meredith’s defensive wounds were found to be minimal and consisted of a 0.6cm (quarter inch) long superficial slice on the palm of her right hand showing only a trace of blood and another 0.6cm (quarter inch) slice on the second finger of her left hand, along with several highly superficial cuts to the fingertip of the index finger. Massei finds this remarkable considering that the normal and instantaneous human reaction to that first violent knife stab to the neck would have been to protect the area of attack, along with a strong desire to escape even if it meant receiving a blow to another part of the body. However, Meredith remained in the same standing position while continuously offering her exposed neck to the actions of the person(s) striking her, with the peculiar distinction of striking first from the right and then from the left. Massei believes that a scenario as such seemed inexplicable, unless one accepts the presence of more than one attacker who, as a group, forcibly restrained the athletic Meredith’s movements while intimidating and striking her from multiple angles.[369]

Massei also believes that evidence demonstrated Meredith was still dressed and awake when the attack began on her and that the violence against her could not have taken place as it did if Meredith were lying on her bed. Massei concludes that Meredith was sober and fully conscious since no traces indicating either the use of drugs or the abuse of alcohol were found; all of which, if present, might have contributed an inability to firmly resist an attack.[369]

Furthermore, Massei finds it impossible to imagine a scenario in which a single person could have removed the clothes that Meredith was wearing (shoes, pants and underwear) while inflicting the sexual violence revealed by the vaginal swab. Massei finds it highly unlikely that one person could have caused all of the resulting bruises and wounds cited above in addition to removing her sweatshirt, pulling up her shirt, and bending her bra hooks by force before finally tearing and cutting the bra. The actions on the bra alone, during which a small piece of material with hooks was cut off and thrown to the floor, were necessarily conducted from behind Meredith and required the attention of both hands of an attacker, and thus Meredith would have had her own hands free to attempt actions of self-defense.[370]

Massei concludes there was very little evidence of any defensive maneuvers on the part of Meredith, which to him was a strong indication that several attackers were present, each with a distribution of tasks and roles: either holding Meredith and preventing her from any significant defensive reaction, or actually performing the violent actions. Massei concludes that the rest of the body of evidence came in full support of such a scenario, recalling that a biological trace of Rudy was found on one of the cuffs of Meredith’s sweatshirt indicating a gripping in order to prevent any reaction. In drawing together all of the elements mentioned above, both circumstantial and forensic, Massei concludes that the diverse morphology of the injuries, their number, and their distribution mandated that the violence against Meredith was performed by multiple attackers.[370-371]
 
Nope. All of the above is from Massei's motivations report. To be fair, one could also list 11 things which Massei says which supports his guilty verdict, but all those 11 items above are gleaned directly from the convicting report.

I had the same reaction as you the first time I read the report. I thought I was reading the wrong report.

well I just proved you wrong on your point 7, he didn't think the lone wolf theory was possible for several reasons, and that was partly why they found the other two guilty. I suspect as I go through the list you will be found wrong on each of your assertions. you got one real wrong so I don't have much hope you are right about the others.

I think there has been an effort to stop talking about Hellman so much, since that verdict has just been tossed by the supreme court over there, and start tring to twist the Massei report, which the court found them to be guilty, into some kind of argument for their innocence, which seems to be a little Orwellian? Show me where I'm wrong.
 
No one is speculating. I just asked why he didn't. Your answer can get added to the pile - there is no big deal about it. Fine. I just wondered what people thought. I am not sure it's meaningless but I don't know the meaning, if any.


Presumably he had a reason, since people have advanced several. I don't really see how it would help to know what it was. The burglary isn't either unreasonable or impossible, so I don't really see why the specific reason makes any odds.

There are scenarios where an action or series of actions being alleged to have been carried out by an accused person are so unreasonable on the face of it that it is justifiable to ask for some reasonably compelling explanation as to why anyone would have done such a thing. This just doesn't seem to me to be one of these scenarios.

Rolfe.
 
here is the part of the summary of the Massei report that contradicts your point 1 that there was no mixed blood (or mixed blood and dna) b/t the two girls in the house:

The defense did not contest the mixed DNA test results, but instead argued that they were irrelevant: that mixed DNA would be expected since Meredith and Knox lived in the same house and shared the small bathroom. [378] They suggested that Knox’s DNA could be exfoliated skin cells. Dr. Stefanoni (for the prosecution) testified that exfoliated skin cells are keratinized and contain no DNA. [202]

The court concluded that Knox’ DNA became mixed with Meredith’s blood from vigorous scrubbing of the hands and feet, and that this is how the mixed DNA sampled came to be found in the sink and the bidet.[279]

DNA testing cannot, by itself, determine when biological material has been deposited, or in the case of mixed DNA, which was deposited first or whether it was simultaneous. [211] However, the court noted that Knox told the court in her answer to questioning that the bathroom was clean when she left the house on the afternoon of November 1.[278]

The court concluded that Meredith’s killers had gotten blood on their hands and elsewhere on their bodies, and that they needed to clean off the blood. Accordingly, they tracked blood on their feet to the small bathroom, where Meredith’s blood was transferred to the doorframe and light switch plate when they turned the light on in order to use the bathroom.[279] Sollecito tracked Meredith’s blood into the bathroom, leaving a partial print of his right foot in blood.[379]

Knox was not wounded.[280] The trace of her blood on the tap was different in appearance from the mixed DNA samples, and was explained by her as having come from her own ear having been pierced. [280] The mixed trace in the sink and the bidet appeared to have been diluted with water, constituting a single trace placed there by Knox when she was cleaning Meredith’s blood from her hands and feet.[378]

The defense experts did not specifically attack the accuracy of the findings on the trace evidence revealed by Luminol.[285] Dr. Gino noted that a generic test for blood was negative on the sample, and that the DNA test was low copy number. She also noted that substances other than blood can cause Luminol to fluoresce.[282]

The court observed that there was an abundant quantity of Meredith’s blood on the floor of the bedroom to be tracked around the house.[279] The fact that DNA testing revealed the presence of genetic material in the samples indicates the presence of biological material that reacts with Luminol. The court said that attributing the fluorescence to fruit juice, rust, bleach, vegetables, etc. could not explain the presence of reactive trace in so many parts of the house, whereas the walking in blood and subsequent cleanup easily accounts for the findings.[283-285]

The defense’s “low copy number remark” was rejected because Dr. Stefanoni had testified that the sample had been processed according to standards and procedures necessary for international quality certification, and noted that the certification was granted by the international certifying body in 2009; the quality certificate was an acknowledgement of what already existed, and had already been done.[285] Further, the court noted that the criticisms of Dr. Gino and Dr. Tagliabracci were hypothetical, and all concerned specific findings and a small portion of the specimens.[285]

The footprint on the bathmat was partial, missing the heel. [339] Based on the dimensions of the big toe, the plantar arch, and the shape and location of various “bumps”, Inspectors Rinaldi and Boemia concluded that the print was made in Meredith’s blood by Sollecito’s right foot, that it was consistent with Sollecito’s wider foot and inconsistent with Guede’s longer, narrower foot, and well as being inconsistent with Knox.[339-342]

The measurements from the bathmat: big toe–33mm wide, 39mm long. Metatarsus–99mm wide, 55mm long. [339]

Footprints taken with printer’s ink resulted: Big Toe—Sollecito: 30mm wide, 37mm long. [339] Guede: 23mm wide, 43mm long. Knox: 22mm wide, 41.8mm long.[339] Metatarsus–Sollecito: 99mm wide[339]

Rinaldi and Boemia used the so-called L.M. Robbins grid, which is marked in centimeters, lining the vertical axis with right-hand outline of the foot, and the horizontal axis with the tip of the big toe. [340] By comparing the samples with the bathmat, they concluded that the shape of Guede’s plantar arch and the alignment of his “bumps” could not be reconciled with the print on the bathmat, whereas Sollecito’s bumps align consistently between his sample and the bathmat. [340-341] The primary distinctions between Guede’s right foot and Sollecito’s are: the width of the big toe, the shape of the metatarsus, differences in the plantar arch, and the shape of the left side of the foot.[341]

Professor Vinci, Sollecito’s expert attempted to show that the foot print was actually that of Guede. He argued that the morphology of Sollecito’s foot was such that his second toe made no contact with the paper, but that a portion of the mark on the right side of the big toe print on the bathmat is actually from the second toe. He thus measured the big toe print as being 24.8 mm wide.[352]

The court rejected this theory. It noted that the photograph appeared to show the opposite of what was claimed, i.e., it showed the blood had been deposited as a single unit on a decorative flourish of the mat. Moreover, the court noted that, by comparison, Guede’s foot is generally longer and more tapered, and that the second toe print falls quite far from the big. [354] Finally, the court discounted the idea that Guede had ever been in his bare feet that evening. The visible shoe prints clearly showed that he walked directly from Meredith’s room, down the hallway, and out the door.[379]
 
Presumably he had a reason, since people have advanced several. I don't really see how it would help to know what it was. The burglary isn't either unreasonable or impossible, so I don't really see why the specific reason makes any odds.

There are scenarios where an action or series of actions being alleged to have been carried out by an accused person are so unreasonable on the face of it that it is justifiable to ask for some reasonably compelling explanation as to why anyone would have done such a thing. This just doesn't seem to me to be one of these scenarios.

Rolfe.
I don't have anything deep to say in reply. All things being equal, being presented with two vacant apartments, you would think he would tackle the easier one. He must have had a reason for going upstairs and it's interesting to wonder what it might have been. It might be important.
 
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