Continuation Part 5: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Mary_H]

Sorry Mary but as one of the few that followed the case from the very first I genuinely wondered if you remembered.

What is interesting is that as far as I remember no mention was made of a burglary gone bad until the FOA pushed it. I believe it is an indication that the PLE thought staging from the beginning. Today most here would say that burglary gone bad is obvious, Occam s razor, yet why didn't the press write that on the 2nd, the 3rd or the 4th?

It isn't so much when staging was mentioned as why no one speculated on what most PIP believe today.

The fact that they didn't mention F's room could be an example of the only thing the PLE didn't leak. They had the wrong window and that could have trapped Rudi as it turned out.

I wouldn't go so far as to say the press reported nothing about Filomena's room or a burglary until I had read all the articles from the first week, including the Italian ones. I know they reported about the wrong window at first, but at least they knew there was a broken window somewhere; they just jumped to the conclusion it must have been in the murder room.

I think there is strong evidence for what "most PIP people believe today" about the break-in. I, like you, don't agree with it, but as Charlie said, it can never be proven either way. To me, talking about the break-in and the staging has always been off topic, because it has nothing to do with Amanda and Raffaele. I get how people are energized by speculating about all aspects of the case, though.

 

[Grinder]

Sorry, PIP, right. I happen not to agree with that idea because I think Guede heard her unlock the front door, call out 'anyone there' and then lock the door from the inside. And I also think a burglar would be likely to be interested in means of escape pretty much straightaway. A mortice lock (if that's the right word) is also visibly of a kind for which you need a key, so just a glance on his way to the fridge would do it.

So you think he broke in and then Meredith showed up seconds later? Okay, could be.

My point had nothing to do with maths at all.

Neither did mine.

I getcha and I take your point, but in discussion here that fine distinction seems to get lost and people get to talking about whether there really was glass on the ground or not and I am saying it's irrelevant because we know the rock was thrown from outside.

I agree that the rock was thrown from the outside. Although it would be risky if someone decided to stage it could have been the decision. I rule out the rock being thrown from inside.

 

[Grinder]

I wouldn't go so far as to say the press reported nothing about Filomena's room or a burglary until I had read all the articles from the first week, including the Italian ones. I know they reported about the wrong window at first, but at least they knew there was a broken window somewhere; they just jumped to the conclusion it must have been in the murder room.

I think there is strong evidence for what "most PIP people believe today" about the break-in. I, like you, don't agree with it, but as Charlie said, it can never be proven either way. To me, talking about the break-in and the staging has always been off topic, because it has nothing to do with Amanda and Raffaele. I get how people are energized by speculating about all aspects of the case, though.

I agree that there was some early coverage of the broken window in F's room. I also remember personally thinking from reading the reports that the perp had entered or exited through a window in Meredith's room.

My main point is that if the PLE hadn't decided very early on that staging had occurred one would think that stories would have been written discussing the gone bad theory.

 

[anglolawyer]

So you think he broke in and then Meredith showed up seconds later? Okay, could be.

He puts himself there around 8.30 I think. So about half an hour before her. Give him a few minutes to reccy and get in. Then a look around in F & L's rooms, then check out the fridge then answer a call of nature. In his account of what happened he says he met her outside as arranged and he mentions her getting her keys out to unlock the front door. That strikes me as a very odd detail. It registered with him strongly enough to go into his narrative, as did her calling out to see if anyone was there, which he also recalled. The keys and the call would be very important if he heard them when taking a dump. My guess is he had left the kitchen light on and just had time to switch off the light in the bathroom when he heard the keys in the lock, then he heard her call out, lock the front door and head to her room. He crept along a few minutes later and surprised her in there.

 

[Bill Williams]

I wouldn't go so far as to say the press reported nothing about Filomena's room or a burglary until I had read all the articles from the first week, including the Italian ones. I know they reported about the wrong window at first, but at least they knew there was a broken window somewhere; they just jumped to the conclusion it must have been in the murder room.

I think there is strong evidence for what "most PIP people believe today" about the break-in. I, like you, don't agree with it, but as Charlie said, it can never be proven either way. To me, talking about the break-in and the staging has always been off topic, because it has nothing to do with Amanda and Raffaele. I get how people are energized by speculating about all aspects of the case, though.

One thing that is useful will be to look in Amanda's book if she was asked about the break-in, and asked this before the Nov 5/6 interrogation. If Knox was asked about it before that, then that is evidence that the cops, then, thought it important.

I've always thought about it in terms of the investigative lines the cops developed early on - one of which went to Marco Chiacchiera, who supposedly investigated the, "Who ever it was went through the front door," line - meaning an unknown boyfriend let in through the front door by either Meredith herself or some keyholder.

Other investigators, at least as reported in the books, kept looking at the window, from both inside and outside. Some did express opinions (acc. to the books) that it was a staging.

What is an interesting tidbit that I had not noticed before concerns Marco Chicchiera. In following the, "an unknown boyfriend might have done it," theme, Chiacchiera drew the detail to look at all the pictures of the Hallowe'en party to see if there was one of Meredith and some unknown boy.

The reason, acc. to Dempsey, that Chiacchiera was interested in this is that she reports his belief to have been, "the sex looked consensual and there was no sign of a protracted struggle."

Of course this was used later to bolster the multiple attacker theory, with two restraining the victim.

It's just intriguing to see these theories laid out on a timeline as to how they developed, or probably developed, and how they were eventually merged with other theories.

 

[Mary_H]

<snip>The reason, acc. to Dempsey, that Chiacchiera was interested in this is that she reports his belief to have been, "the sex looked consensual and there was no sign of a protracted struggle."

Of course this was used later to bolster the multiple attacker theory, with two restraining the victim.

It's just intriguing to see these theories laid out on a timeline as to how they developed, or probably developed, and how they were eventually merged with other theories.

Speaking of which: "Police have accused Knox of helping to hold Miss Kercher down during the sexual assault claiming that her finger prints had been found on the British student’s face." As Rose would say, "Wow. Just wow."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1568860/Meredith-Kercher-murder-Judges-report.html

 

[Charlie Wilkes]

Heh, I've been following your thread in FC and was going to ask you if you'd heard about the case there but demurred as I didn't want to take the chance of (unintentionally) opening old wounds. I love the pictures, especially the one with the breathtaking balcony shot from Switzerland--what a view!

I'd agree that referring to Italy as backwards and uncivilized is probably not a good idea and is not really true, but criticism of their justice system is very tough to avoid if one relies on objective data. In a subjective sense, for those who've followed this case and others like it (Sarah Scazzi, Alberto Stasi) it's difficult (for some) to avoid occasionally ranting in unbridled rage about it!

However you're probably right that when pressed Italians are more likely to respond to such criticism negatively.

If you went to Cairo, most people in the street would say that EgyptAir Flight 990 went down because of a mechanical failure. That is what their gov't and media has been telling them for many years.

As Machiavelli/Yummi has pointed out here, many Americans still believe Saddam Hussein had something to do with 9-11. 10 years ago, the percentage would have been much higher. That was what the gov't and the media was telling us, and most people sucked it right up.

 

[Supernaut]

I agree that there was some early coverage of the broken window in F's room. I also remember personally thinking from reading the reports that the perp had entered or exited through a window in Meredith's room.

My main point is that if the PLE hadn't decided very early on that staging had occurred one would think that stories would have been written discussing the gone bad theory.

I don't really understand why this is supposed to be important.

As soon as they'd made the arrests - which, to remind you, were barely 4 days after the discovery of the murder - the authorities had no option but to commit themselves to making a "faked burglary" part of their 'narrative'. When exactly they started making this known to the media is irrelevant.

There is, as far as I know, nothing to indicate that a "faked burglary" was "suspected" or "investigated" before the arrests.

If the remark by the postal cop, before the murder was discovered - "this is no burglary" - was actually made at all (I think it's likely that he embroidered his "recollection" to suit the prosecution case), it would have been because the place hadn't been cleaned out - valuables like laptops still in plain view.

Note that the same policeman refused to break down Meredith's door (and lied in court about entering the room and lifting the quilt on her body), so he obviously wasn't in the least alarmed by anything he'd seen.

 

[Dan O.]

Been paying attention longer than you. Needless attack, and what has been discussed by the polar opposites on this is not necessarily informative as Sherlock pointed out.

If I cared to, I could verify that claim. But that would involve getting up out of the armchair and I'm comfortable where I am for the moment.

The continual arguing of beliefs will go nowhere. To settle anything it needs to be argued in depth. Break each point down and find where it is comming from. Gather all The supporting evidence so it can be weighed and analized. Look for studies that answer the questions in a scientifically acceptable manor and if necessary perform experiments ourselves.

Early on, I knew that there would be a lot of data that needed to be organized and analized in this case. To handle this I created the shared wiki where we could all contribute and I privately invited the best of the JREF posters to sign in and contribute to make this the best resource for case related material. Many have signed up. A few have contributed. Very few have contributed more than a few updates. I believe I sent you the link. Have you been there?

 

[Dan O.]

In first world nations like Italy I would guess the law requires doors to open from the inside without a key. Remember all the PIP theories that have Rudi going back to MK's room for the keys when he realizes that the door requires a key?

Do you know what this is?



On the wiki you would find also the name of the manufacture and a discussion of the operation of the lock installed on the cottage door.

 

[Dan O.]

meme - a bullet - but glass outside would be there either way unless the shutter were closed as glass flies in both directions.

Can you say from this picture that there is no glass on the outside?



Have you got a better picture?


But more so, what are the mechanics in play when a large rock goes through a glass window and strikes a hinged wood shutter on the other side?

 

[RandyN]

Sorry Mary but as one of the few that followed the case from the very first I genuinely wondered if you remembered.

What is interesting is that as far as I remember no mention was made of a burglary gone bad until the FOA pushed it. I believe it is an indication that the PLE thought staging from the beginning. Today most here would say that burglary gone bad is obvious, Occam s razor, yet why didn't the press write that on the 2nd, the 3rd or the 4th?
It isn't so much when staging was mentioned as why no one speculated on what most PIP believe today.

The fact that they didn't mention F's room could be an example of the only thing the PLE didn't leak. They had the wrong window and that could have trapped Rudi as it turned out.

Don't you think that just this alone is enough evidence to show that PLE must be incredibly stupid then?

As for the press...who did the press get information from?

Is it just me? Am I so incredibly intelligent and almost clairvoyant...to notice that a broken window may be related to the murder I just discovered inside the locked doors of a bedroom?

You would have to be damn fool to ignore this huge hole in the wall! And lets consider murders...in particular stabbing death murders of young, alone women inside her own locked home. What seems likely? Anything? A staged break-in, four way sex orgy that turned violent and morphed into a 2 or maybe three knife murder? Or maybe something less dramatic? Certainly there are statistics (now here is where math might actually help) that show data about murders and knife murders and single alone woman knife murders, etc...but what allows Italians like Mignini to ignore Occam? I recall stories and remember arguments that someone breaking into a home and then later being discovered by the homeowner and is then killed as if it is some sort of pink unicorn crime. Does that sound right?

Who puts aside a broken out window as unrelated to this murder? It certainly is not Foakers alone who make this claim...you would have to be damn fool or else have incontrovertible proof of otherwise...that it was unrelated or staged.

Statistics on crime must certainly be available. Especially to the police. Kercher is murdered. Who done it? The husband, the boyfriend, next , next , next. Who kills with a knife? I'm betting woman are low on this statistical list.
What else do we know?

Someone broke a huge hole in a window. Who does that and why?

What else? Not much appears to be taken. Makes perfect sense...wouldn't a burglars priorities change after he has decided to kill someone? I have no doubt this was an unplanned murder.

Who covers a dead body? The prosecutor Mignini tried to imply that a woman would...but he is actually wrong. Once again we have stats to go by...a first time killer often covers or tries to hide the body from his view.

Nothing about this crime scene says 4 way orgy satanic 3 knifed mistake. Nothing at all. In fact there are those who consider such wild speculation in light of zero evidence to be the rantings of a mad man rather than a wholly workable theory. And forget there is not a shred of UN-contestable evidence that upholds these crazy claims. There are no statistics to back it up either.

All while OTOH a broken window indicates a possible burglary...sure not proved but lets keep looking...oh no turds in the toilet ...have we seen that before? Well no but we saw pee in a Perugia law office and in a preschool...and the link just happens to Guede...but OK we may not know that yet.

Juice bottle left out? Law office and cottage. Guede. Glass stacked? Law office, FR room...Guede. Still nothing big or conclusive.

Dead body inside locked room. Again let me state how big a damn fool you would need to be to ignore the broken out window. And I happen to agree with you that Guede may have never climbed in thru that window but he certainly put the rock through it. And I have issues with the powdery wall like substance that appear on a few of FR items on her floor.

Geee chief the window doesn't seem to make sense. Why come in that way? Why not this or that? OK lets keep that in mind. Is this an unlikely window or a fair enough choice taking into account all other windows.

The window choice could never rule out a burglary just based on that criteria. I see the position relative to the street and the darkness of that area and the slope itself, as well as it access to immediate, undetectable, escape as suggestion that this is not so bad a choice at all.

If the police weren't looking for a burglar in the first days of the case then they are even bigger fools then they have proved themselves to be. Husband? Check. BF? Check. Another male suitor? Maybe. Visitor? Maybe. Roommate? Maybe. In here somewhere has to fit the burglar or possible burglar...

I happen to believe if not for Giacomo (Rudys friend) the PLE would have never solved this case. I think the whole palm print thing is bunk. Who keeps palm prints on record? I dont think they got a good finger print either...not until after Giacomo put Rudy onto their radar.

What remains stunning is how after all they knew or could find out about Guede that they remained fixated on the original stupid illogical conclusion...a crime so statistically rare as to be off the charts.

And I think we see the lack of evidence, the strange disappearing evidence (burned hard drives, forgotten interrogation tapes, missing human DNA material, etc) the complete lack of a motivation, lack of MO, shape shifting TOD and crazy witnesses...oh and even an ear witness...all factors that lead the sane to conclude this case against AK and RS may not be so good. In fact it is totally baseless.

And for the involvementers... they didn't do it but they did something...anything short of proof can not support whatever level your contentions happen to rise up to.

Talk about retesting DNA all you wish...but what does the math person, or anyone else say about the prosecution objection to having the knife handle opened at the request of the C and V?

What about that semen stain? Those missing control data sheets? Those missing EDF's? Did we get a look at the investigation report of the prosecutors office looking into the claim that Knox was struck by police? How about the report of Lumumbas claim? He told it to every DM reader in the world. Must have made its way back to Migninis office at some point one would expect.

Is it a good idea to mock the Italian Justice system? Not sure, but I am quite certain they would wish everyone to remain quiet about it.

Look over there! A squirrel!

 

[bri1]

This is a mother-daughter writing team, and the BBC interviewed the daughter. The mother has been over at Bruce Fischer's forum (Injustice Anywhere) discussing her work and attempting to defend her conclusions.

It has been a mind-boggling discussion. This woman does not seem to know about the DNA quantification issue that is central to C&V's technical report. She definitely does not understand the implications of this issue or why it matters. She has no awareness of the problems that have beset PCR labs ever since the technology has been in widespread use, and she dismisses guidelines for sound analysis as "meaningless rules."

Thanks for giving me some context, here. It sounded really wrong to me, as it depends on the reason for the unreliability. I will search for the discussion at IIP.

 

[anglolawyer]

Thanks for giving me some context, here. It sounded really wrong to me, as it depends on the reason for the unreliability. I will search for the discussion at IIP.

It's in a thread called 'Math on Trial'

 

[Kaosium]

If you went to Cairo, most people in the street would say that EgyptAir Flight 990 went down because of a mechanical failure. That is what their gov't and media has been telling them for many years.

As Machiavelli/Yummi has pointed out here, many Americans still believe Saddam Hussein had something to do with 9-11. 10 years ago, the percentage would have been much higher. That was what the gov't and the media was telling us, and most people sucked it right up.

I'm not surprised either, most people don't look into a case, they just assume whoever was arrested is guilty but that sometimes defense lawyers can get them off on a technicality.


That would have been me (as well) some two and a half years ago!

 

[bri1]

It's in a thread called 'Math on Trial'

Thanks Anglo, I'll have a read and see if there's anything I can contribute...

 

[Grinder]

Someone with credentials should write the various publications touting Myths on Trial point out the mistakes and the fact that the main writer has been PG for years. Her university should also be advised that she is a charlatan.

 

[Grinder]

On the wiki you would find also the name of the manufacture and a discussion of the operation of the lock installed on the cottage door.

Couldn't find the link please post it again. It has been reported repeatedly that the front door lock did not work properly and needed to be secured with a key. I guess when I see the info on your Wiki it will become clear. I have never encountered a exit door that won't open from the inside without a key even if the deadbolt was thrown. Here it would against code.

 

[RoseMontague]

I don't really understand why this is supposed to be important.

As soon as they'd made the arrests - which, to remind you, were barely 4 days after the discovery of the murder - the authorities had no option but to commit themselves to making a "faked burglary" part of their 'narrative'. When exactly they started making this known to the media is irrelevant.

There is, as far as I know, nothing to indicate that a "faked burglary" was "suspected" or "investigated" before the arrests.

If the remark by the postal cop, before the murder was discovered - "this is no burglary" - was actually made at all (I think it's likely that he embroidered his "recollection" to suit the prosecution case), it would have been because the place hadn't been cleaned out - valuables like laptops still in plain view.

Note that the same policeman refused to break down Meredith's door (and lied in court about entering the room and lifting the quilt on her body), so he obviously wasn't in the least alarmed by anything he'd seen.

I would think if the initial responders had thought the burglary was staged they would not have let Filomena into to disturb evidence of any staging. The police photographer would have been told to take pictures of the glass on clothes and pictures of the search for glass under the window. That extensive article I posted at JREF from the very early days of the case seems to imply there were two lines of investigation (something that Kaosium has theorized), one focused as a burglary gone bad, the other on Amanda's involvement. Once they announced case closed the other line of investigation (burglary gone bad) pretty much shut down.

 

[christianahannah]

I agree that there was some early coverage of the broken window in F's room. I also remember personally thinking from reading the reports that the perp had entered or exited through a window in Meredith's room.

My main point is that if the PLE hadn't decided very early on that staging had occurred one would think that stories would have been written discussing the gone bad theory.

The article from Corriere della Sera on November 4 fairly well portrays the staging process versus theft gone bad and interjects the theory it may not have been only one person responsible for Meredith's death. I cannot tell if the article is a mix of official response and/or opinion by the author, however, it plays out the case for staging of Filomena's room.This same subject may have been in other Italian papers for that date but I have not searched.

http://archiviostorico.corriere.it/...va_suo_assassino_Trovate_co_9_071104164.shtml

Prior to this date, I believe on November 3, both Sophie Purton and Amanda (and maybe others) had been questioned by the police and the direction of those questions appeared to be towards those who were familiar to Meredith or who had previously visited the cottage.