Merged Silver Over 40.00 / Real and fake prices

[kevsta]

If I read that article correctly it's predicting a significant rise in the price of silver in the near future. Of course it cannot be wrong because if the price of silver is static it's the remaining 20% of the prediction.

edited to add...

Actually it's saying that there's an 80% chance that there'll be some kind of increase (13%-114%) over some time period (12-53 weeks) which is pretty vague as predictions go. It also doesn't say when the period starts so if the price of silver hits $30 at some point over the next year (which IMO is well within the compass of normal fluctuation) then they'll claim that they were right. Indeed if it drops to $26 and then recovers to $28 then they'll claim that they're right.

no, its not, a short squeeze of any magnitude would break $35 in fairly quick order and likely push $40. you'd know it wasnt average action.

they are aggravated by margin calls and excess leverage

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_squeeze

that's what really got us going in 2011. just trading in the range of 27-33 is not the kind of results the massive volume above suggests.

it should either grind down slowly then violently break support and plunge, or trickle back upwards and then start bursting faster and faster upwards as shorts are either stopped out, or at least take some profit before they give it all back.

then the ones who are running into losses start to bail and it becomes a panic, first out the door, get out at any price.

Google VW short squeeze

edit poking up through $28, gotta be a few weak hands getting twitchy poopers now. he who retreats first retreats best and all that..

 

[The Don]

<..snip...>

That's your interpretation, and a very generous interpretation because it actually gives some testable claims. The article on the other hand only promises an 80% likelihood of some kind of increase in the price of silver over some kind of timescale. It's effectively a completely useless prediction.

 

[kevsta]

That's your interpretation, and a very generous interpretation because it actually gives some testable claims. The article on the other hand only promises an 80% likelihood of some kind of increase in the price of silver over some kind of timescale. It's effectively a completely useless prediction.

useless or not, if you immediately went here www.bullionvault.com on reading it and bought at $27.00ish you're +3.5% up today.

If you went long on leverage, say 10,000 Oz, you're $10,000 up with stoploss at breakeven, and smiling right now.

useless is in the eye of the beholder.

 

[The Don]

useless or not, if you immediately went here www.bullionvault.com on reading it and bought at $27.00ish you're +3.5% up today.

If you went long on leverage, say 10,000 Oz, you're $10,000 up with stoploss at breakeven, and smiling right now.

useless is in the eye of the beholder.

Silver spot has gone from $27.30 to $28.00, I'm finding it very difficult to see this as anything other than normal fluctuations.

I think the article is talking about a much more emphatic move than that.

If the silver proponents have gone from predicting silver prices at $100-$150/oz to now taking a 0.70 uptick as a sign that their message is right then I think it has lost something in the process.

 

[kevsta]

Silver spot has gone from $27.30 to $28.00, I'm finding it very difficult to see this as anything other than normal fluctuations.

I think the article is talking about a much more emphatic move than that.

If the silver proponents have gone from predicting silver prices at $100-$150/oz to now taking a 0.70 uptick as a sign that their message is right then I think it has lost something in the process.

Im just pointing out that as ZH is primarily a trading site, the information was either actionable if you wanted, or could be taken in the context of your trading plan anyway.

of course you are right this is not the move yet, however for that to develop at all, we would first have to put in a convincing bottom and reversal, ie the squeeze would have to start squeezing..

have attached trading context charts, overall cycle and the actual bottom interception point and ZH timing. As a trader, would you rather be aware of the possibility before, or after the move is underway?

the trading cycle. this is how most markets tend to move, and how I trade them.

on Forex pairs the cycles are often ridiculously clear, on commodities they can be harder to see, but sometimes also run very clearly. an entry is taken only on clear manipulation around pre-defined points, in the opposite direction to which we are anticipating. ie if they stoprun through a pre-determined level and immediately reject. if the trader manipulation isnt clear, then the trade isnt taken.

I was eyeing a gold long at 1572 yesterday, but because we didnt get a decent stoprun (fake move and rejection) to the lows, I didnt take it, and it popped $18 without me. but that's still a better strategy than taking the trade without the clear manipulation and taking a loss instead.

and this is the closer up another (over)view, when you're thinking about pulling the trigger on a reversal, rather than re-entering for 2nd or 3rd push trade.

you can see all the tech indicators were pointing the to the reversal the day before their article. and I had known about the COT data's contrarian bullish nature developing for a few weeks anyway.

so, support didnt break this time, we have bounced, now all it would need is an aggressive buyer to spike the price a couple of dollars fast, and the silver rocket *could* be off again once more.

we shall see.

 

[The Don]

so, support didnt break this time, we have bounced, now all it would need is an aggressive buyer to spike the price a couple of dollars fast, and the silver rocket *could* be off again once more.

we shall see.

Well eventually you will be right unless the price of silver remains static in perpetuity.

 

[kevsta]

not necessarily, the whole herd could be right for once and grind it down to low $20s first.

for my physical, I dont care because "eventually" could be very well worth the wait.

as a trader, order is everything, you go broke if "eventually" means a sizeable move against you first.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Kevsta,

You're obviously WAY ahead of me interpreting charts, but in the first one...

1) What is the rationale for excluding outliers from that first yellow box?

2) I think the most significant thing on the chart is the "?" at data point 8.

What I still take away from all this is essentially random, or at least unpredictable, fluctuations - only post hoc does one get all these pretty patterns.*

Someone predicting an uptick from "8" will have his "method" validated if it goes up. If it goes down, there's always a reason (see Special Pleading). It's called "Confirmation Bias" essentially remembering the hits and forgetting (or pleading away) the misses.

Also, at point "6", had the price gone down instead of up, would not the post-hoc interpreters have claimed it "broke downside resistance with momentum" or some such rationale?

I still think you're getting sucked into what has, historically, been a dead end for speculators. Good luck, and look for that long promised PM soon.


*you still owe it to yourself to read "Fooled By Randomness" by Taleb, if you have not already. Apple will give you a preview for free, BTW.

 

[kevsta]

Kevsta,

You're obviously WAY ahead of me interpreting charts, but in the first one...

1) What is the rationale for excluding outliers from that first yellow box?

not sure what you mean excluding outliers? this is just a basic overview of the process, Id be trading it at deeper level (15min chart) but with expectation of what am looking for derived from here.

this sequence of trades (if you hit them all right obviously) would all be wins except for 3, which failed to hit the top of the range and would have been stopped out at breakeven.

having failed to hit the top of the range there then is no trade there until the first push out of the range is established. we had a false push out which retraced again intraday, but not until the first clear break down and daily close outside the range, are we expecting a little pop then the second push down.

2) I think the most significant thing on the chart is the "?" at data point 8.

well youre correct in that it is the only variable yet to be seen.

What I still take away from all this is essentially random, or at least unpredictable, fluctuations - only post hoc does one get all these pretty patterns.*

no not really, the cycles are usually always there in one form or another, but they are never exactly the same any single time.

but this really misses the point of the system, because unless I see the marketmakers have taken the retail trader stoplosses at a previously identified point, in the (counter) direction we are anticipating, you dont trade anyway.

If you're wrong, you're wrong, happens every day, but as every single one of the main pushes always starts with a stoprun from the opposite direction, the odds are good.

as you can see, look at say 7. we are buying the bottom of that red in expectation of the second push, the stoploss can be very tight and be just outside of the daily range there, and the potential of the main move is all in front of you. very high risk:reward potential, which is actually the main key to success or failure.

Someone predicting an uptick from "8" will have his "method" validated if it goes up. If it goes down, there's always a reason (see Special Pleading). It's called "Confirmation Bias" essentially remembering the hits and forgetting (or pleading away) the misses.

I still think you're getting sucked into what has, historically, been a dead end for speculators. Good luck, and look for that long promised PM soon.

ok, well if 2 months of positive testing figures across 3 accounts cant convince you that it is possible, then maybe youre the one with confirmation bias?

I came to this open-minded, and have been from "maybe" to "impossible" to "maybe..just.." and all the way back to confident-ish after successful testing again, over 15 months. and I've done it by expending a lot of my brain processing power on it for a considerable length of time.

last time I did that I taught myself SEO and charge €100 an hour consulting these days, so I tend to trust my apparent skills as they present.

*you still owe it to yourself to read "Fooled By Randomness" by Taleb, if you have not already. Apple will give you a preview for free, BTW.

ok ok ok, I think its probably a different kind of special pleading on his behalf though?

"oh its impossible, its so random nobody can ever do it..

..and if they do, well it was just luck anyway"

if they win more than they lose consistently, then theyre consistently lucky, yes?

 

[kevsta]

another example of cycle, the Euro

..at the top of the third push, blowout reset out through L3, and as it comes back through the top of the orange box, the whole world is long Euro here, the trend is their friend after all..

heres a screenshot of the live trade on

stoploss now at breakeven (inc fees) first target (half position off at 70pips) and hope the other half runs for 3 cycles down again now.

risk:reward now potentially infinite (div by 0)

might I be wrong and the Euro go higher yet? yes. does it matter financially? no. if this one doesnt run, the next or the next will.

the Eu could come up into L3 and again and bump around the zone for days again, we can never know, only trade regular probabilities over time.

Im winning 1 in 3 regularly enough, obvious manipulation is obvious.

(edit, out at zero to the pip almost, might take it again if it sets up again, NY opening is witching hour, infamous for trickery )

 

[kevsta]

Kevsta,

2) I think the most significant thing on the chart is the "?" at data point 8.

What I still take away from all this is essentially random, or at least unpredictable, fluctuations - only post hoc does one get all these pretty patterns.*

Someone predicting an uptick from "8" will have his "method" validated if it goes up. If it goes down, there's always a reason (see Special Pleading). It's called "Confirmation Bias" essentially remembering the hits and forgetting (or pleading away) the misses.

here he goes deluding himself he knew what might happen (the ol 1-2-3 method) again ..

Trade 8 or "?" (labeled 3 on here) I took a few screenshots at the time, rather than in hindsight.

here's the actual entry (+2 pip spread) stoploss at breakeven now, and I might lift the take profit and let it run if it looks like the big squeeze is getting going it should at least poke through $28 again even if it fails there.

Original http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/1X45n

and I took the Euro trade again today too

Original http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/TX45n

cant lose on either now, its just a matter of dealing with patience/greed/boredom etc to get the best results.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

here he goes deluding himself he knew what might happen (the ol 1-2-3 method) again ..

I will stipulate he "might" have known what was going to happen.

"Might" and "May" are weasel words. Of course it "might" happen.

Or not.

Again, I find this interesting, but remain to be convinced that real money can be made over time doing this.

And, with no skin in the game, so to speak, I remain convincable.

I would still probably not do it. Investors like myself see day traders and speculators of this ilk as chasing after nickels and dimes and leaving all the dollars on the table.

For example, someone who bought Microsoft or Apple in their nascent phase and just held them stood to make enormous gains over time. While others were in and out at the slightest blip of a chart, making a little here and losing a little there and paying short term gains rates on those occasions where the wins were bigger than the losses.

No one I know who has ever tried this has been successful in the long run. And they all sounded like you. And there's always a reason - a special pleading - when things don't go their way.

But keep it up! I wanna see you get rich!!!

 

[kevsta]

I will stipulate he "might" have known what was going to happen.

"Might" and "May" are weasel words. Of course it "might" happen.

Or not.

of course. I used the word "might" on purpose. that's all I'm claiming. oh and a system to win more if it does, but not lose so much if it doesn't.

might is fine. every one in 2 or 3 times it does. sorted.

as I said, traders dont ever know, but if there is a better than average probability (and those cycles or similar really do run everywhere -but even say 50:50, thats fair isnt it?)

..and we can trade at high risk:reward 2 or 3:1 then surely you must concede that it is *possible* ? whether I can do it consistently henceforth, I do not claim.. but you can see by my experimentation, that it could at least be possible?

Again, I find this interesting, but remain to be convinced that real money can be made over time doing this.

And, with no skin in the game, so to speak, I remain convincable.

I would still probably not do it. Investors like myself see day traders and speculators of this ilk as chasing after nickels and dimes and leaving all the dollars on the table.For example, someone who bought Microsoft or Apple in their nascent phase and just held them stood to make enormous gains over time. While others were in and out at the slightest blip of a chart, making a little here and losing a little there and paying short term gains rates on those occasions where the wins were bigger than the losses.

I have no skin in the game as to whether you believe me or not, ultimately its between me, the market and my account balance, nobody else.

but I think I have demonstrated that the earning potential with this is pretty good? and I dont remember any +33%-in-one month gains on MS (that couldn't have been gone again the next week anyway? )

If I was plugged into a $10million live account, I boshed out $3.3x million in March lol, hardly peanuts.

No one I know who has ever tried this has been successful in the long run. And they all sounded like you. And there's always a reason - a special pleading - when things don't go their way.

all sounded like me how? talked realistically about how hard it is/was, how they got their ass kicked, and then gradually turned it round and produced consistent profits for a couple of months while testing? and what am I pleading? fan-*****-tastic results in initial 2013 testing your honor. pleading my ***

and yes I know, I have immersed myself into traderworld fully for a while now, consistent success is very rare and I bet have heard way worse stories than you. Im not claiming anything except a belief now, that it is possible, and I can quite likely do it with practice. I dont believe the same about telekinesis or anything lol.

As with everything only time will tell. But I dont believe the evidence I have presented since Xmas contradicts this does it?

But keep it up! I wanna see you get rich!!!

:Not as much as I do. if or when that happens from this, I will likely vanish from this forum, so if I ever do, just assume I'm a billionaire now

 

[kevsta]

update..

so "might" was a negative in this instance, the cycle failed to deliver the 3rd push. sometimes happens, especially news related events can alter things, and we have collapsed back into the lower range and established a larger lower end trading range.

I exited the failed push yesterday on signs of weakness

and took it again this morning and took a loss. which was however smaller than yesterday's win.

so I was wrong on direction with this trade, as opposed to the rest of the cycle that ran perfectly, but I'm still actually up. can you see how this might *possibly* work yet?

my main enemy is myself, just doing only what Im supposed to and nothing else. the actual trading strategy/ies are fairly easy by comparison

and re the potential short squeeze, somebody's getting squeezed, not sure which way it will blow..

 

[The Don]

I predict just a few months from now, I will dredge up this post and LOL @ 40.00 silver.

It will be a thing of a by-gone era.

Like nickel gum-ball machines.

I've dredged this up two years on (I don't think the OP posts here any more) and he was right, silver @$40/oz is but a distant memory

 

[kevsta]

I've dredged this up two years on (I don't think the OP posts here any more) and he was right, silver @$40/oz is but a distant memory

yup. kaboom! gold and silver breaking down hard. herd and msm definitely winning at this point.

and glad Im holding that theoretical S&P/Gold trade to maturity, and not levered x 1000 and marked to market, or I would be utterly insolvent

 

[Fast Eddie B]

I've dredged this up two years on (I don't think the OP posts here any more) and he was right, silver @$40/oz is but a distant memory

Then again, he "might" have been right about the direction as well!

 

[trustbutverify]

yup. kaboom! gold and silver breaking down hard. herd and msm definitely winning at this point.

So when precious metals decline sharply, the pathetic "herd" and MSM are winning. But when precious metals advance sharply, the supercool rugged individualists and hip alternative media are winning?

 

[Fast Eddie B]

so "might" was a negative in this instance, the cycle failed to deliver the 3rd push. sometimes happens, ...failed push yesterday on signs of weakness...and took it again this morning and took a loss. which was however smaller than yesterday's win. ...so I was wrong on direction with this trade, as opposed to the rest of the cycle that ran perfectly, but I'm still actually up...my main enemy is myself, just doing only what Im supposed to and nothing else.

This is what I meant when I said you sounded like all the failed day traders I've known.

Find a failed day trader or speculator or technical analyst (or gambler!) and ask him why he got out of it, or lost so much money. You're bound to hear about how the basic strategy would have worked, but for...

...getting greedy...

...or not following through with the plan, or...

...not expecting nor accounting for (insert Black Swan event here), or...

...they ended up "not doing what they were supposed to do, and nothing else", or...

...fill in the special pleading of your choice.

can you see how this might *possibly* work yet?

Of course I do. I'll stipulate that you have a 50/50 chance of profiting from any given trade.

What remains to be demonstrated is whether one can consistently make money by reading charts. I'd still say no, until proven otherwise.

 

[kevsta]

So when precious metals decline sharply, the pathetic "herd" and MSM are winning. But when precious metals advance sharply, the supercool rugged individualists and hip alternative media are winning?

I did not use the word pathetic. but I'm tempted now.

herd = dumb money (statistically)
msm = clueless mouthpieces

if Goldman tells the muppets to sell, their prop desk is buying.

make of it what you will.