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Abenomics: medicine or poison for Japan?

Medicine or poison?

  • Medicine

    Votes: 12 27.3%
  • Poison

    Votes: 3 6.8%
  • Don't know

    Votes: 18 40.9%
  • Planet X

    Votes: 11 25.0%

  • Total voters
    44

Puppycow

Penultimate Amazing
Joined
Jan 9, 2003
Messages
32,008
Location
Yokohama, Japan
Paul Krugman makes the pro case.

William Pesek expresses skepticism.

As far as what has actually been achieved so far, the yen which was trading at around 80 to the dollar before Abe's election is now around 90, and officials have said that they would not mind if it went to 100. For perspective around 2005-2007 the yen was around 110-120/dollar. The strong yen in recent years has been bad for Japanese exporters.
 
It might work in Japan, but this is predicated on several issues specific to Japan. The new policy has BoJ targeting 2% inflation (up from ~0%). In the US we'd have to curb the currency supply to get down to 2% inflation.

Weakening/devaluing the currency an creating some internal inflation certainly helps exports, impedes imports, and encourages investments outside of bond, yen-denominated assets. Painful to consumers, esp Jaanese pensioners who often invest only in their bonds. It could also have a dramatic effect on their (extremely high) debt to GDP ratio by increasing nominal GDP, and probably wont make borrowing more difficult (nearly all Japanese debt is sold internally).

So yes if they steal just enough from bond/currency holders so they aren't annoyed enough to sell these devalued and poorly performing assets it could help. Questionable if it can help enough.

--
It could encourages other nations to follow suite in a race to the bottom where no one wins.
 
The links I gave explain it a little bit, but I'll see if I can summarize.

Shinzo Abe (pronounced 'ah-bay') is the recently elected prime minister of Japan. The term 'Abenomics' is just a neologism like 'Reaganomics' to describe his economic policies.

His economic platform is to add some new stimulus spending to the budget and, perhaps more importantly, to put pressure on the Bank of Japan (the Japanese counterpart to our Federal Reserve Bank) to set a higher inflation target and purchase more government bonds. In theory (supporters would say) this would increase inflation expectations which would drive up inflation and hopefully end the cycle of deflation or weak inflation that has been driving up the exchange rate of yen and hurting economic growth. A strong yen hurts Japanese companies that export products, and makes imports cheaper, which could also hurt Japanese companies that are domestically focussed but have to compete with cheap imports. Japan used to have a perennial trade surplus, but in recent years has had a trade deficit, partly because of the strong yen.
 
I lean heavily toward Krugman's opinions but don't know enough about Japan's current economic situation so I voted "don't know".
 
Japan's economy has always been like going through the looking glass for me.

But Krugman's statements about how they "didn't do solution X enough" seem like attempted discounting of when his favoured solutions didn't work. It may be true in further review, but it makes me very dubious right now.
 
....

But Krugman's statements about how they "didn't do solution X enough" seem like attempted discounting of when his favoured solutions didn't work. It may be true in further review, but it makes me very dubious right now.
If you're talking about the economic stimulus, the evidence absolutely supports the Keynesian solution Krugman promotes.

The private sector in the US is creeping out of the recession because of the stimulus while the bulk of the continued employment failure is in the public sector, police, teachers, little infrastructure investment. A lot of the burden of public budget cuts is falling on the states because federal money isn't flowing like it should. If the public sector economy was stimulated that creeping rise in the private sector would be faster.

And there's no evidence despite the constant drone of the right wing that the deficit is an urgent immediate crushing problem.
 
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Japan's economy has always been like going through the looking glass for me.

But Krugman's statements about how they "didn't do solution X enough" seem like attempted discounting of when his favoured solutions didn't work. It may be true in further review, but it makes me very dubious right now.


It's an unfalsifiable hypothesis which is why is the argument never goes away.
 
It's an unfalsifiable hypothesis which is why is the argument never goes away.
There's no evidence in the case of Krugman that the claim is wrong. Of course there is a threshold for the stimulus to work, what evidence do you have the argument is specious?

And do you deny the economy is slowly recovering? Doesn't that suggest more stimulus might have made the recovery faster?
 
I lean heavily toward Krugman's opinions but don't know enough about Japan's current economic situation so I voted "don't know".

Consider using simpler and more direct sentences like
"I don't know anything on the topic , but I always agree with Krugman".
Better an honest sycophant.


If you're talking about the economic stimulus, the evidence absolutely supports the Keynesian solution Krugman promotes.

Ridiculous ! Show the evidence for this specific point you claim.

You cannot assess exactly what works and what doesn't based on an isolated case, and all of the larger studies show that government spending stimulus is less effective.


The private sector in the US is creeping out of the recession because of the stimulus

It's creeping out in 5+ years rather than bouncing out in the typical <28 months, most likely can be attributed to policy. I favor the high tax, anti-business policies as the culprit, but that's speculation. In any case something about the recent policies have cause this recovery to be horribly slow.


while the bulk of the continued employment failure is in the public sector, police, teachers, little infrastructure investment.

Absolutely FALSE !!!
Civilian employment is ~4.6Mill lower than the 2007 peak.
Total public employment is off by about 660k in that same period.
Unemployment is 5.6M higher that 2007.

Yes, public employment has taken a bigger percentage hit in employment, but percentages are NOT a rational way to assess the "bulk of the continued employment failure". Otherwise "mobile home installers" with a 35% unemployment rate are the "bulk of the continued employment failure". It's not a percentages game.

A lot of the burden of public budget cuts is falling on the states because federal money isn't flowing like it should.
Define "federal money isn't flowing like it should" without reference to normative standards or personal opinion. It's a nonsense conception.
It really means "other peoples money flows like you want".


If the public sector economy was stimulated that creeping rise in the private sector would be faster.

Yes, if you build a road, then the private sector contractors and the follow-on benefit, but it's been demonstrated quite convincingly that reducing taxes by the same amount and allowing the private sector to spend or invest results in higher and more sustained gains.

AFAIK the public sector employment is still dropping and in all likelihood that will continue as the general trend. In order to maintain a constant Federal government spending, and allow for the non-discretionary spending to grow by the expected ~25% in the next ~8 years, the discretionary branches will have to shrink by ~40% of current. Of course there is far less government employment in non-discretionary (social security, medicare, medicaid, federal pensions) than in discretionary (military, DOJ, State, Agriculture ...). Many states & muni's have a similar dilemma.


And there's no evidence despite the constant drone of the right wing that the deficit is an urgent immediate crushing problem.

Yes. What could possible go wrong when debt service, at historically low rates, is already using up almost 8.5% of receipts ? {sarcasm}. If we returned to the (roughly triple the current) rates of the VietNam era or the mid-Clinton era, then we would be using 25% of tax receipts to service debt ! That should alarm any reasonable person.

Merely following those with a political ax to grind, like Krugman, and adding your own partisan ad hominems does not make you a well informed citizen, nor a critical thinker. You need to read the numbers and study the issue - and then give a coherent opinion on your position.

Debt, deficits and the overhang of social programs are very real problems to anyone who understands the situation on even a rudimentary level. Every Party & political partisan has a tendency to want to ignore the hard fiscal truths and prefer to spend like there is no next-term while they are in office.

There's no evidence in the case of Krugman that the claim is wrong. Of course there is a threshold for the stimulus to work, what evidence do you have the argument is specious?

And equally no evidence he is right - so it's just another unevidenced assertion, like pixies in your pantry. We don't give credence to unevidenced assertions here.

You brought up Krugman's assertions - the burden is on you to defend them.


And do you deny the economy is slowly recovering? Doesn't that suggest more stimulus might have made the recovery faster?

In the same exact sense that this graph suggests Internet explorer cause murders - (i.e. not at all). Correlation = causation fallacy.

original.jpg

http://gizmodo.com/5977989/internet-explorer-vs-murder-rate-will-be-your-favorite-chart-today
 
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Optimism in Japan:

Junk Euphoria Crosses Pacific as Sharp Worry Fades

Japan’s junk bonds are joining the global rally as optimism over Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic stimulus boosts investor appetite for riskier debt.

Sharp Corp.’s 0.846 percent bonds due 2014 soared to 77 yen per 100 yen face value on Jan. 28, from 46 yen two months ago, according to JS Price data. The notes of junk-rated Tokyo Electric Power Co., Nippon Sheet Glass Co. and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. (9107) also climbed. Global non-investment grade debt has gained to a record 105 cents on the dollar, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data dating back to 1997 show.

Investors are seeking higher returns, emboldened by Abe’s plans for 10.3 trillion yen ($113 billion) of fiscal stimulus and global monetary easing that has contributed to record inflows into funds that own speculative-grade debt. Sharp’s bonds maturing in 2014 yield 19.5 percent while the television maker warns there is “material doubt” about its ability to survive. Tepco, which may have an active fault under one of its atomic plants, has a yield of 3.3 percent on its 2017 debt.

“The market has become bullish to the point of euphoria,” Taketoshi Tsuchiya, Tokyo-based director of credit trading at Barclays Plc, said in a telephone interview on Jan. 28. “Sharp’s bonds are overheating.”
 
I think Balrog's point (I never thought I'd write those two words together in a sentence) is that he should prove himself right, actually.

Krugman uses evidence:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/the-imf-and-the-gop/

More evidence:

http://www.policymic.com/articles/8...-on-stimulus-bill-and-anti-austerity-theories

It really is not unfalsifiable, although it is true that can't run a double-blind experiment or use a control group in macroeconomics. But that's equally true for all macroeconomic theories. You do have natural experiments in macroeconomics. These are not ideal, but it's not unfalsifiable.
 
Krugman uses evidence:

Krgman isn't posting in this thread - Ginger "whatever Krugman says is right " did w/o any support.


http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/the-imf-and-the-gop/

More evidence:

http://www.policymic.com/articles/8...-on-stimulus-bill-and-anti-austerity-theories

It really is not unfalsifiable, although it is true that can't run a double-blind experiment or use a control group in macroeconomics. But that's equally true for all macroeconomic theories. You do have natural experiments in macroeconomics. These are not ideal, but it's not unfalsifiable.

So you do longitudinal studies across a large number of cases and find that Krugman's case is not very convincing. Yes (duh) government spending increases GDP by definition. That expansion comes at a LT expense. The question is - what is the net cost vs outcomes ?

Your reference is to a false dichotomy, Krugmans ardent support for the Keynesian government stimulus has many alternatives and just the strawman "GOP austerity". Highly unlikely the GOP wouldn't have proposed stimulus measures - just different ones then government expansion. What about stimulus by tax reduction rather than spending ?
 
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Here comes the medicine. Abe finally has the man he wanted in charge of the central bank and he is implementing the plan.

Initial reaction

Asian stocks rose, with Japanese shares surging toward the highest level in almost five years, after the Bank of Japan’s new governor announced unprecedented monetary easing to end two decades of economic stagnation.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) surged 3.2 percent, climbing above 13,000 for the first time since August 2008, as the yen fell against all its major peers. Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest carmaker, jumped 3.2 percent and Canon Inc. jumped 3.7 percent as the weakening currency boosted the earnings outlook for companies making sales abroad. Stocks outside Japan fell.

It's about 11 AM Tokyo time and the Nikkei is up 483 points in trading so far today.
 
Bond market obviously not happy

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...e-over-10-years-triggers-tse-circuit-breakers

Just over 4 hours ago we discussed the stunning collapse in 10Y Japanese bond yields. Since then - things have taken a very dramatic turn for the worse for bonds. 10Y JGB yields have exploded higher.

The move from 32bps to 65bps triggered circuit breakers on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in JGB Futures trading as JGB prices plunged by their largest amount since September 2002.

We can only imagine there is liquidations galore occurring given the massive outsize moves we are seeing in Japanese bonds, stocks, FX, swaps, and CDS. Did the BoJ just lose control?


also did anybody see Draghi respond directly to questions from Zerohedge in the press conference yesterday? :) quite amusing. Draghi clearly knew who they are.

This happened earlier today, at the ECB press conference:

Scott Solano, DPA: Mr Draghi, I've got a couple of question from the viewers at Zero Hedge, and one of them goes like this: say the situation in Greece or Spain deteriorates even further, and they want to or are forced to step out of the Eurozone, is there a plan in place so that the markets don't basically collapse?

Is there some kind of structural system, structural safety net, especially in the area of derivatives? And the second questions is: you spoke earlier about the Emergency Liquidity Assistance, and what would have happened to the ELA in Cyprus, the approximately €10 billion, if the country had decided to leave the Eurozone?

Mario Draghi, ECB: Well you really are asking questions that are so hypothetical that I don't have an answer to them. Well, I may have a partial answer. These questions are formulated by people who vastly underestimate what the Euro means for the Europeans, for the Euro area. They vastly underestimate the amount of political capital that has been invested in the Euro. And so they keep on asking questions like: "If the Euro breaks down, and if a country leaves the Euro, it's not like a sliding door. It's a very important thing. It's a project in the European Union. That's why you have a very hard time asking people like me "what would happened if." No Plan B.

Secondly, I think the ECB has shown its determination to fight any redenomination risk. And OMT with its precise rules and acting within its mandate, is there to this purpose. So that's the answer to the first question.

The second question was about the ELA, but again it's related to "if Cyprus leaves" and again we don't have that in mind, so.... No Plan B.

Informative. We do have three follow up questions:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-04/mario-draghi-responds-zero-hedge-there-no-plan-b
 
Deflation and very low inflation increase bond values. Bond values will always drop going from these to the modest inflation levels required for economic growth. Meanwhile the value of stocks is tied to economic growth, and they will go up in periods of economic growth.

IOW these numbers suggest the markets are predicting economic growth.
 
Deflation and very low inflation increase bond values. Bond values will always drop going from these to the modest inflation levels required for economic growth. Meanwhile the value of stocks is tied to economic growth, and they will go up in periods of economic growth.

IOW these numbers suggest the markets are predicting economic growth.

more like monetary growth.
 
Deflation and very low inflation increase bond values. Bond values will always drop going from these to the modest inflation levels required for economic growth. Meanwhile the value of stocks is tied to economic growth, and they will go up in periods of economic growth.

IOW these numbers suggest the markets are predicting economic growth.

Amazingly shallow thinking. I hope you aren't an investor. Markets are "predicting the obvious", currency devaluation.

As the yen decline in value the value of assets like Toyota Corp remain the same, therefore TOY prices rises when denominated in yen. To argue that this automatically implies "economic growth" is dubious, unevidenced. It's similar to claiming that a blow-out discount sale is good for the bottom line; you cannot say without a careful calculation considering volumes and margins.

The price of J.export goods will necessarily not decline as much the currency. The only ways to cause a decline in the real price of a Sony laptop or a Honda car is to cause a decline in the standard of living of the labor involved OR to increase productivity by automating further OR to invent/find materials that are lower cost. Wages that don't keep up with inflation are one less-painful means of devaluing Japanese labor, and somewhat likely.

J.Bond prices declines b/c policy creates a near-certain yen devaluation. Yes bond prices are based on inflation rates (currency devaluation rate) but also on currency and principle risk; and importantly on alternative investment opportunity which also (very short term) means a flight to equities for the Japanese. This flight to equities is also part of the bonds-down, equities-up picture.
 
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Yes. What could possible go wrong when debt service, at historically low rates, is already using up almost 8.5% of receipts ? {sarcasm}. If we returned to the (roughly triple the current) rates of the VietNam era or the mid-Clinton era, then we would be using 25% of tax receipts to service debt ! That should alarm any reasonable person.

although stevea was referring to the US, this quote is extremely apt for the OP, except the figures are alarmingly higher.

Japan owes more than 20x it's annual tax revenue, and currently uses 25% of the revenue to service this debt, whilst at historically low rates.

every 1% rate rise costs them another 25%. So here's an idea, lets print 75% as much as the Fed do very month for a year or two, (for an economy 1/3 the size) double the monetary base by end 2014 and make sure we get 2% inflation..

once again..

Yes. What could possibly go wrong ?

In fact it looks as though it might have started already

Japan's 13 sigma bond swan

For six months the Japanese jawboning has seen investors front-running the BoJ, selling JPY and buying whatever risk-asset is the most correlated that day - whether it is the Nikkei 225 or the S&P 500. However, now that words have been replaced by actions, it appears that someone (cough Japanese institutions cough) has decided the 13.4-sigma swing in JGBs last night is just too much and have rotated to US Treasuries.

The selling of JPY and buying of EUR (to fund peripheral bond buying) and USD (to fund Treasury buying) is very clear. That means, implicitly, that every ramp higher in JPY (weaker JPY) is simply more bond-buying - which leaves the algos directionless.

If you were a risk-manager, what would you do?

but hey the Nikkei went up so its all good.

but then it should really, shouldn't it when the value of the currency it's priced in suddenly went (back) down between 5% and 7% in 2 days, depending on exactly which currency you compare it to, and looks like going down a lot more yet.
 

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