meg
psychic reader
Robin,
You and I have argued a lot, and some of it got heated. I really want to start over with you. I just want you to know that I'm trying to write/say this as if I was writing it to my sister, whom I love dearly. I hope that if I say something here that irks you, you will stop and reread this imagining that we are sisters, and I'm right next to you holding your hand while I say it. I am trying to say this as gently and lovingly as I can.
----------
As skeptics, we try to avoid logical fallacies. Because logical fallacies are the way we fool ourselves and others.
What you are doing here is using a logical fallacy called Appeal to Authority, which is where an assertion is deemed true just because of the position or authority of the person asserting it. You are incorrect in thinking that the only reason we don't believe you is because you don't have "authority" here. Or that if someone of "authority" here said they believed in JE, that we would automatically believe it was true.
That's just not true. That's not how critical thinkers work.
We want evidence. Cold hard facts. We want the kind of evidence that comes from a properly blinded scientific experiment.
The reason real scientific experiments are "blinded" is because it is a well known and very real phenomenon that experimenters affect the results of their own experiments to reach the conclusion that they want. In other words, if we are researching a medicine for example, if the researcher knows which person is receiving the real medicine and which person is receiving the fake, they subconsciously pay more attention to the real medicine results that fits their hypothesis, and ignore data about the fake medicine which does not fit their hypothesis. (AKA "cherry picking" and "selective attention") And likewise, if the people taking the medicines know whether they are receiving the real medicine or the fake one, they are likely to feel differently and report different symptoms (or lack of symptoms) just because they know which one they got. (See "placebo effect")
That's why we "double blind" experiments. It is to make sure that neither the researcher, nor the people involved can influence or skew the results.
So let's talk about cold reading. Cold readers require feedback to do what they do. There are two things at work here. The cold reader must get feedback to tell the person what they want to hear. (So he manipulates the experiment by seeing reactions from people and building on those reactions) And the person being read really wants to hear particular things. They are looking for those things and will just ignore all the other things he says that don't fit. (They manipulate the experiment by ignoring data that doesn't fit)
Now let's think about our hypothesis a moment. If John Edward is not cold reading, but instead is really talking to dead people, who, we assume, can go anywhere and see anything, then John Edward should be able to provide accurate readings to people that he cannot see or hear, right? Theoretically, we should be able to set up an experiment where a person quietly sits or stands behind a curtain, and John Edward could then still give them an accurate reading. Right? I mean the dead people should be able to see behind the curtain, right?
And if we were going to double-blind the experiment, we could put headphones on the people so they could not hear JE when he was talking about them. We could have JE do 10 readings on 10 different people. Then have the people watch all 10 readings later, and see if they could tell which one was theirs.
Obviously, JE won't submit himself to testing, so all this is just hypothetical, but I did find this link to a 3 minute video of JE on the Dr Phil show, where they asked him to keep his back turned to the audience. He did receive a little feedback here from Dr Phil, however not nearly the same amount that he usually gets.
Let's look at what happens:
http://www.drphil.com/shows/show/1928
Scroll down to the video right below:
Please watch that video, Robin, and let me know what you think of it.
If it is all right with you, I will wait and post my own (rough) transcript and my own impressions until after you have posted your thoughts, because I do not want to influence how you see or what you think about what he is doing.
If you are uncomfortable with that, and would rather I post my analysis first, before you post yours, that's fine, too. Whatever you want. Just let me know.
You and I have argued a lot, and some of it got heated. I really want to start over with you. I just want you to know that I'm trying to write/say this as if I was writing it to my sister, whom I love dearly. I hope that if I say something here that irks you, you will stop and reread this imagining that we are sisters, and I'm right next to you holding your hand while I say it. I am trying to say this as gently and lovingly as I can.
----------
As skeptics, we try to avoid logical fallacies. Because logical fallacies are the way we fool ourselves and others.
OK, I've stated many times that EVERY psychic and medium I have been to thus far I believe is a fake. Except for John Edward. Obviously I know the tricks, I'm experienced, I'm knowledgeable ( in this subject anyway), I have half a brain, I can keep my emotion out of it, etc. Yet, even though I warn people on my blog about the frauds, the deluded, etc. most people here will not even entertain the notion I could be right about JE. Or my personal signs. I do get that you don't know me, so here's my question....is there anyone on this forum that you would respect enough to possibly believe if they came back here telling you that they went to JE and think he could be real? Or they had a personal sign that they think could be real. Would ANYBODY actually make you stop and reevaluate? Say it was Meg, or Resume, or, Garrette, or Pixel, or Foolmewunz or ExMinister, or RSLancastr, or Xterra, etc. ...would any of them or anyone else having a paranormal experience they thought was real, would that make you stop and consider the possibility. Or would you just try to convince them it was just a coincidence. Or memory fail. Or hot reading. Or a lucky guess. Or....
What you are doing here is using a logical fallacy called Appeal to Authority, which is where an assertion is deemed true just because of the position or authority of the person asserting it. You are incorrect in thinking that the only reason we don't believe you is because you don't have "authority" here. Or that if someone of "authority" here said they believed in JE, that we would automatically believe it was true.
That's just not true. That's not how critical thinkers work.
We want evidence. Cold hard facts. We want the kind of evidence that comes from a properly blinded scientific experiment.
The reason real scientific experiments are "blinded" is because it is a well known and very real phenomenon that experimenters affect the results of their own experiments to reach the conclusion that they want. In other words, if we are researching a medicine for example, if the researcher knows which person is receiving the real medicine and which person is receiving the fake, they subconsciously pay more attention to the real medicine results that fits their hypothesis, and ignore data about the fake medicine which does not fit their hypothesis. (AKA "cherry picking" and "selective attention") And likewise, if the people taking the medicines know whether they are receiving the real medicine or the fake one, they are likely to feel differently and report different symptoms (or lack of symptoms) just because they know which one they got. (See "placebo effect")
That's why we "double blind" experiments. It is to make sure that neither the researcher, nor the people involved can influence or skew the results.
So let's talk about cold reading. Cold readers require feedback to do what they do. There are two things at work here. The cold reader must get feedback to tell the person what they want to hear. (So he manipulates the experiment by seeing reactions from people and building on those reactions) And the person being read really wants to hear particular things. They are looking for those things and will just ignore all the other things he says that don't fit. (They manipulate the experiment by ignoring data that doesn't fit)
Now let's think about our hypothesis a moment. If John Edward is not cold reading, but instead is really talking to dead people, who, we assume, can go anywhere and see anything, then John Edward should be able to provide accurate readings to people that he cannot see or hear, right? Theoretically, we should be able to set up an experiment where a person quietly sits or stands behind a curtain, and John Edward could then still give them an accurate reading. Right? I mean the dead people should be able to see behind the curtain, right?
And if we were going to double-blind the experiment, we could put headphones on the people so they could not hear JE when he was talking about them. We could have JE do 10 readings on 10 different people. Then have the people watch all 10 readings later, and see if they could tell which one was theirs.
Obviously, JE won't submit himself to testing, so all this is just hypothetical, but I did find this link to a 3 minute video of JE on the Dr Phil show, where they asked him to keep his back turned to the audience. He did receive a little feedback here from Dr Phil, however not nearly the same amount that he usually gets.
Let's look at what happens:
http://www.drphil.com/shows/show/1928
Scroll down to the video right below:
One of the criticisms that psychics like John hear is that they use physical cues and visible prompts during readings. See what happens when John does a reading of the audience with his back turned away from them.
Please watch that video, Robin, and let me know what you think of it.
If it is all right with you, I will wait and post my own (rough) transcript and my own impressions until after you have posted your thoughts, because I do not want to influence how you see or what you think about what he is doing.
If you are uncomfortable with that, and would rather I post my analysis first, before you post yours, that's fine, too. Whatever you want. Just let me know.