Moderated Global Warming Discussion
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r-j
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Yes, and it is horrific. I feel for you. I've been reading about similiar horrors across the UK and Europe, and all winter it has been a nightmare of cold and snow all around the world.
I would say for most people it's a big surprise. You can tell people all day long that it's one of the warmest years globally ever, and it won't change what the weather is. Nor will it change the weather patterns that always are happening. Thinking global warming means everywhere will be warmer, or that winters will be milder, is an imagined result. Nobody knows what will happen, because nature isn't a computer program. Nor a respecter of persons. The arrogance of those who act as if they know the future, and they alone know it, is always exposed, by the future as it happens.
The horrific winters that have been occurring, for over 5 years now, won't simply stop because somebody says the global temperature is at a record high. Or that we don't have a long enough period to be able to tell if there is a statistical trend, or whatever dumbo jumbo somebody is selling today.
You, and anyone else, can clearly see the historic record for your area, and realize (we can hope) that saying the 80s were warmer than the 90s and the blah blah blah is a bunch of hogwash. Just like the clodhopper refrain about the winters is shown to be the result of cherry picking time trends.
Below the mean is 1910-1950, for a reason.
That anyone can look at that, and insist winters there have become warmer, is simply insane. Of course you can pick the coldest point on the record and make it seem like it, that's what a cherry pickin is all about. But when you see all the data, it's a lot harder to buffalo a farmer in rural Tennessee that it's global warming causing his woes.
Not that I expect anyone to stop. You probably can't.
Why are the 80s and 90s so much warmer there? Can a 17 year trend tell us anything?
The reason it's seems like there was a huge warming trend is because there was a huge cooling one before it. Of course somebody might look at that and say 17 years isn't enough to know.
They might even insist you have to wait 50 years to see if there was trend towards colder winters.
And there we go. Like mumbo jumbo magic, now there was no cooling in the seventies. It's been warming since 1953! Your problem is obviously the terrible warmer winters. Those people who talk about how people worried about global cooling back in the seventies were just deluded fools.
And (ignore the data) it's obvious that global warming has led to far warmer winters in your area.
It's why the people trying to sway you never show all the data. This is true for both sides in this pitched battle, or more likely a war, over the climate.
r-j
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If it was up to me, you would find your Division, and look at ALL of the data for it. Every month, every season, every year, both temperature and rainfall. Set the trends for all kinds of dates, set the mean to show the different period (like how 1900-1950 compares to 1960-2010). Spend some time doing your own research, on your own area, and you won't need anyone to tell you what is happening where you live, and farm, and try to manage your life. You might also stop living in fear of an imagined disaster from global warming. Not that there isn't a disaster coming, it's just that it might not be the one the "we know everything " crowd wants you to buy.
I'm no authority (cue the mob cackling with glee), nor do I claim to know why the weather (and climate) is doing what it does. But it's obvious if you study the data that things are changing. Again. Just like they always have.
The extreme rise in summer temperatures, the early springs (no, not this year), the trend towards more heat in the warm months, and colder temperatures in the coldest months, it all may mean something. But if you deny it's happening, you can't learn anything.
I'm no authority (cue the mob cackling with glee), nor do I claim to know why the weather (and climate) is doing what it does. But it's obvious if you study the data that things are changing. Again. Just like they always have.
The extreme rise in summer temperatures, the early springs (no, not this year), the trend towards more heat in the warm months, and colder temperatures in the coldest months, it all may mean something. But if you deny it's happening, you can't learn anything.
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DC
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winters are not getting colder, not globally
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.E.gif
http://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/web/de/klima/klima_heute/trends_schweiz.html
nor in my region
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BenBurch
Gatekeeper of The Left
Anybody who says that it isn't warming has to explain polar ice loss, r-j. Indulge me; How do you account for that?
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
You would, however, have to get someone who understands statistics to calculate whether any of the trends you find are statistically significant before jumping to any conclusions based on them, which is the step you keep ignoring.
You'd also need to look at global climate trends to predict what is likely to happen in the future, both globally and locally.
Here's the data for the UK, for fellow Brits to play with:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly
Hours of fun.
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
If you add up ALL the data, you get global warming, which is the claim being put. The 'sekptics' aligned with Muller disputed there was warming. At least they had the scientific integrity to actually go over ALL the data, and see what came out the other end. BEST matched the existing temperature records. They had to eat big batch of humble pie, though they never could quite put it that way.
macdoc
Philosopher
You've been told what it means.....
YOU don't learn anything...apparently. You think it's a mystery...it's not. The change in weather patterns on the continents in some areas is a result of AGW ....it's extreme weather in particular locales as a result of global climate change.
just as certain glacier systems in a few areas grow due to increased moisture in the air....does not change the reality that the glacial mass world wide is declining.
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
This is a huge problem with much science, but it often doesn't matter. The problem is "If I can't understand it, you can't prove it."
aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
With a little touch of "Nah, nah, nah! I can't hear you! I caan't heeaar yoouuuuu!!!" added.
I reckon both texts within quotation marks pretty much summarize the epistemological approach of the r-js in these fora.
The other problem is the ignorance of basic statistics -and a lot of other sciences, including what science, scientific and a scientist are-, but this affects not only all of the r-js but also many people across the street.
r-j
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I never said it isn't warming. In fact, I stated in regards to the US (northeast, northwest) where they are having warmer winters (trend), and that Canada for the most part shows warming winters. Greenland shows warming along the coasts, and there is no doubt the arctic sea ice is showing a huge increase in spring and summer melt.
While it isn't proved yet, it is very likely the open arctic ocean water is leading to changes in the atmospheric circulation, which I introduced early on as the reason climate science suspects is causing the colder winters in parts of the US, Europe, Russia and China.
The open water in the fall may lead to heavy snowfall in Siberia which would amplify the normal Siberian high, with a second feedback loop from Canada/North America, covered by heavy snow. (this was all in the papers I linked to)
But nobody wants to hear my scatterbrained opinions I'm sure.
r-j
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It's funny, because that is pretty much exactly what I see the people who deny the winter trend doing.
r-j
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No, but because I had looked at all the regions, I knew it was in one that shows the warmer spring/hotter summer/colder winters pattern. That the 100 year trend showed colder winters was just another serendipitous event. I can also prove that winters there are colder, based on 30 years of data. But you refuse to explain what would be proof to you.
I told you, I was illustrating the frustration of people claiming you are wrong, while they won't look at the data. The only reason for that kind of time wasting argument is because the data isn't easy to show. Once you can see the data, then you can argue over what it means, but not over the data at least.
Clearly you don't live in the US. We feel the same way about the temperatures in the UK. Nobody cares.
Nobody claimed the trend is global. Even so, I'm curious how that can be claimed. Where is the data the shows this to be a fact? And can it be shown? Clearly it's possible to divide up the NH into sections and show the data, in a way that anyone can understand. Where is that data? Considering the importance of global warming, if it doesn't exist, somebody is wasting a lot of the taxpayers money.
More like a few minutes. But thanks for the link. The winter trend is very much the same there as for parts of the US, as is the spring and summer.
We are getting to that part soon enough. Of course nobody has ever posted any science, much less evidence, to even prove the first part of the claim, Never mind the second.
But then, if you think turning the burner up a slight bit will make the water boil "more chaotically", you will probably believe anything.
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r-j
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The discussion about winters is not that the entire world, or even the NH is cooling. Nobody has said the entire NH is having a colder winter trend. That is absurd, strawman, and shows the lack of comprehension some people bring to the table.
The links I provided show colder winters in some places, most of which really matter to vast populations who live and farm there.
It's like you are telling a sheep farmer with dead livestock his winter was warm, because the global average says so. You can avoid the issue by saying the topic is about the globe, not real world locations. But that makes it useless.
The effects of warming are the most important part of the matter.
If global warming is leading to deadly winters, it's actually more important to know that, than what fraction of a degree warmer it was in the south pacific ocean last year.
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a_unique_person
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DC
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then express yourself more clearly, you cannot claim winters are getting colder in a topic about GLOBAL warming, when only a few regions are getting colder. Just like i cannot say, glaciers are growing in this topic, because globally seen, they are melting, a few of them are growing indeed, but i need to be specific. you failed at that.
globally winters are getting warmer, in a few places winter gets colder.
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