NY Proposal to Screw Gun Owner's a Little Bit Further

[JoeTheJuggler]

Hmm, let's take a look and see how world suicide rates match with world gun ownership rates.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_rates

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country

Yup, once again there is NO corrolation between higher gun ownership rates and higher suicide rates.

You're again looking at inappropriate statistics. I'm not talking about suicide rates in general but only about gun suicides.

The appropriate place to look is at the list of firearm-related death rates and the list of firearm ownership rates. There might not be a correlation, but that's the place to look.

I'm only pointing out that your claim that there are many countries with higher firearm death rates and much lower firearm ownership rates is false. Since there are only 10 countries with higher firearm death rates, there cannot be "many" such countries with much lower gun ownership rates.

 

[Ziggurat]

Cut the crap and review the posts. I was pointing out that Courier is wrong to limit gun deaths to crime and homicides in order to claim that there are "many" countries with higher death rates and lower gun ownership rates.

But you didn't only dispute the number of countries with higher death rates, you also said that you thought they did not have much lower gun ownership rates than the US. And you weren't just wrong about some of them, you were wrong about every single one. I found that noteworthy that you could be so off. You are curiously uncurious about the reason you made that mistake.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

I've posted the links. Your argument is false.

Links to inappropriate statistics. Your claim that there are many countries with higher gun-death rates but much lower gun ownership rates is false. (As worded your claim about crime and homicide rates might be true, but it's not the appropriate stat when you are talking about the effect on safety of gun ownership.)

By the way, the word is "correlation".

And there are plenty of studies that show within the U.S. that a gun in the home does indeed correlate with higher incidence of gun violence.

Here, for example, is a study published in the NEJM that found an increased risk of homicide when there was a gun in the home.
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199310073291506

 

[Mudcat]

And no, many firearms are NOT instruments of war, and would never be used on a modern-day battlefield.

Funny, I seem to be recalling someone starting a thread and claiming untrained civilians could somehow stand up against a modern-day army if the government somehow magically turned into a tyranny overnight using nothing more than such weapons... I wonder who that could have been, Courier. Can you help me out here, Courier?

And gun owners would like to see you, BenB, etal give the constitution the respect it should have.

I do respect it, but it isn't a be all end all.

 

[Courier]

Links to inappropriate statistics. Your claim that there are many countries with higher gun-death rates but much lower gun ownership rates is false....

I've shown world-wide gun ownership rates.

I've shown world-wide suicide rates.

I've shown world-wide homicide rates.

There is no correlation whatsoever.

Many nations that have lower gun ownership rates have higher rates of murder and suicide. No correlation can be drawn.

Sorry bro, but the world-wide data simply doesn't support your argument.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_rates
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate#By_country

Unless you have some evidence that the data I have presented is wrong, this argument is over.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

But you didn't only dispute the number of countries with higher death rates, you also said that you thought they did not have much lower gun ownership rates than the US.

I said that was my guess, and I admit I was wrong on that one.

And you weren't just wrong about some of them, you were wrong about every single one.

I disagree. If you look at the entire range of gun ownership rates, many many countries have gun ownership rates an order of magnitude less than each of the top 11. It's arguable that within an order of magnitude is not "much lower" than a given rate. Yes, the U.S. gun ownership rate is an extreme outlier, but several of the top 11 are within an order of magnitude of it. Most of the list is another order of magnitude lower than any of those top 11.

[ETA: Also, in the U.S. the figure is higher in large part because individuals tend to own more guns. I would very much like to see the rate of gun owners rather than gun ownership. In other words, how many people per population unit own at least one gun. The gun ownership numbers we're looking at now are the number of guns per population unit. I doubt there is much of an effect on safety whether there are 20 or 2 guns in a home.]

And again, my primary point was that the claim that there are many countries with higher gun death rate and much lower gun ownership rates is false. And I'm correct. At the most, there are only 10.

I would further argue that looking at international numbers isn't the correct approach to the question of whether gun ownership in the U.S. correlates with greater risk of gun violence. There are far too many confounding factors.

 

[Courier]

Funny, I seem to be recalling someone starting a thread and claiming untrained civilians could somehow stand up against a modern-day army if the government somehow magically turned into a tyranny overnight using nothing more than such weapons... I wonder who that could have been, Courier. Can you help me out here, Courier?...

Well if you're accusing me of making such an argument, you would be lying.

That's how I know you're not accusing me, as I know you're an honest guy.

 

[Ziggurat]

You're again looking at inappropriate statistics. I'm not talking about suicide rates in general but only about gun suicides.

Why? Is suicide by gun somehow worse than suicide by other methods? Is there any evidence that a lack of guns actually lowers the overall suicide rate, rather than simply altering the methods used?

I'm only pointing out that your claim that there are many countries with higher firearm death rates and much lower firearm ownership rates is false. Since there are only 10 countries with higher firearm death rates, there cannot be "many" such countries with much lower gun ownership rates.

You are yourself guilty of inappropriate statistics use. Every single country which exceeds the US in homicide rate but NOT total gun death rates (according to your source) doesn't include suicide rates at all. The listed total gun death rate is the homicide death rate for those countries, and not the combination of homicides and suicides. So you're including suicide for some countries but not for others. You made an apples to oranges comparison.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Unless you have some evidence that the data I have presented is wrong, this argument is over.

Please, take a breath and read my posts. You're citing the wrong stats to support your position. You claimed that gun ownership has no correlation on safety.

Since this is in the U.S. Politics subform, I assume we're speaking of the U.S. I can cite much evidence of such a correlation.

But again, to your original claim it is false that there are many countries with higher firearm related death rates and lower gun ownership rates than the U.S. for the simple reason that there are not "many countries" with higher firearm related death rates.

 

[Ziggurat]

laim that there are many countries with higher gun death rate and much lower gun ownership rates is false. And I'm correct. At the most, there are only 10.

You're still wrong (see my previous post for why).

I would further argue that looking at international numbers isn't the correct approach to the question of whether gun ownership in the U.S. correlates with greater risk of gun violence. There are far too many confounding factors.

I would agree with that. But that's actually sort of the point: other factors seem to matter a lot more. So why not focus on some of those other factors instead? For example, ending our disastrous drug war.

 

[WildCat]

What? You don't pay state and federal sales tax when you buy a gun or bullets?

That's quite a bit different than mandating insurance for the primary purpose of making a right too expensive to excercise.

You don't get a free bus ride or free gas to get to a polling place either.

 

[Courier]

Please, take a breath and read my posts. You're citing the wrong stats to support your position. You claimed that gun ownership has no correlation on safety....

I made no such claim. Perhaps you would prefer debating with yourself, if you are going to make up claims to argue against.

The claim has been made that there is a correlation between murder and the number of guns in a society. World-wide data of gun ownership rates and murder rates, show no correlation.

The claim has been made that there is a correlation between suicide and the number of guns in a society. World-wide data of gun ownership rates and suicide rates again, shows no correlation.

Next you'll argue that the NRA has agents changing statistics in Wikipedia to further their evil agenda.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

You are yourself guilty of inappropriate statistics use. Every single country which exceeds the US in homicide rate but NOT total gun death rates (according to your source) doesn't include suicide rates at all. The listed total gun death rate is the homicide death rate for those countries, and not the combination of homicides and suicides. So you're including suicide for some countries but not for others. You made an apples to oranges comparison.

It wouldn't change the rankings. The source for those countries' stats shows this.

For example, in Jamaica the total number of suicides by any method is in the tens:

2008: 37
2004: 42
1995: 36

That works out to a total suicide rate of roughly 5.0 per 100,000. Not all of those suicides are gun-suicides, so it wouldn't significantly change Jamaica's overall gun death rate (and certainly not its ranking) given that its homicide rate is 47.4.

In the U.S., though suicides account for the majority of gun deaths, so that omission is tremendously significant.

 

[WildCat]

In Mexico's case, they are currently in the middle of a civil war, which is getting extremely messy at this stage, so I'd just say they are an outlier.

Mexico has had one of the highest murder rates in the world since at least the 1960s, well before their current troubles.

 

[BenBurch]

But you didn't only dispute the number of countries with higher death rates, you also said that you thought they did not have much lower gun ownership rates than the US. And you weren't just wrong about some of them, you were wrong about every single one. I found that noteworthy that you could be so off. You are curiously uncurious about the reason you made that mistake.

Did you look at the "why" of any of those, or did you just repeat the number?

If you did, what stuck out at you?

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

I made no such claim.

See post 161. You replied to a comment about "safety" by making a claim that was inappropriately limited to crime and murder and omitted the fact that the majority of gun deaths in the U.S are suicides.

ETA: For example, it would be misleading if I compared only gun suicide rates between Jamaica and the U.S. and concluded that the U.S. had significantly higher rates of gun violence.

 

[Chuck Guiteau]

Bingo Sierra. Where they get them now is the same place you do; Retail.

You know that's not true, Ben, as we've been down this road before. Just because you ran away, doesn't mean you get to pretend you were not aware of the facts that have been presented to you in the past.
The BJS differs with you:
According to the 1997 Survey of State Prison Inmates, among those possessing a gun, the source of the gun was from -

a flea market or gun show for fewer than 2%
a retail store or pawnshop for about 12%
family, friends, a street buy, or an illegal source for 80%
http://www.policyalmanac.org/crime/archive/firearms_and_crime.shtml

From Frontline:
Supported by the National Institute of Justice and based on interviews with those recently arrested, the study acknowledges gun theft is common, with 13 percent of all arrestees interviewed admitting that they had stolen a gun. However a key finding is that "the illegal market is the most likely source" for these people to obtain a gun. "In fact, more than half the arrestees say it is easy to obtain guns illegally," the report states. Responding to a question of how they obtained their most recent handgun, the arrestees answered as follows: 56% said they paid cash; 15% said it was a gift; 10% said they borrowed it; 8% said they traded for it; while 5% only said that they stole it.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/guns/procon/guns.html

Even if you include straw purchases (which are illegal in the first place, and cannot be considered "retail") most criminals obtain their weapons thorugh other than "retail" purchases.

 

[Courier]

See post 161. You replied to a comment about "safety" by making a claim that was inappropriately limited to crime and murder and omitted the fact that the majority of gun deaths in the U.S are suicides....

And then I showed the lack of correlation between gun ownership rates and suicide rates.

Forget it bro, the numbers simply don't support your argument.

I'm looking at every country in the world.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Gun ownership and risk of suicide:

RESULTS.
During the study period, 803 suicides occurred in the two counties, 565 of which (70 percent) took place in the home of the victim. Fifty-eight percent (326) of these suicides were committed with a firearm. After excluding 11 case subjects for various reasons, we were able to interview 80 percent (442) of the proxies for the case subjects. Matching controls were identified for 99 percent of these subjects, producing 438 matched pairs. Univariate analyses revealed that the case subjects were more likely than the controls to have lived alone, taken prescribed psychotropic medication, been arrested, abused drugs or alcohol, or not graduated from high school. After we controlled for these characteristics through conditional logistic regression, the presence of one or more guns in the home was found to be associated with an increased risk of suicide (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.7 to 8.5).

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejm199208133270705

Risk factors for violent death of women in the home:

Conclusions: Among women, mental illness and living alone increase the risk of suicide in the home, and household use of illicit drugs and prior domestic violence increase the risk of homicide. Instead of conferring protection, keeping a gun in the home is associated with increased risk of both suicide and homicide of women. Household use of illicit drugs, domestic violence, and readily available firearms place women at particularly high risk of homicide at the hands of a spouse, an intimate acquaintance, or a close relative. Many factors place women at increased risk of violent death in the home. Community- and clinic-based interventions should target those with identifiable risk factors.Arch Intern Med. 1997;157:777-782

http://archinte.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=623145

 

[BenBurch]

You know that's not true, Ben, as we've been down this road before. Just because you ran away, doesn't mean you get to pretend you were not aware of the facts that have been presented to you in the past.
The BJS differs with you:
According to the 1997 Survey of State Prison Inmates, among those possessing a gun, the source of the gun was from -

a flea market or gun show for fewer than 2%
a retail store or pawnshop for about 12%
family, friends, a street buy, or an illegal source for 80%
http://www.policyalmanac.org/crime/archive/firearms_and_crime.shtml

From Frontline:
Supported by the National Institute of Justice and based on interviews with those recently arrested, the study acknowledges gun theft is common, with 13 percent of all arrestees interviewed admitting that they had stolen a gun. However a key finding is that "the illegal market is the most likely source" for these people to obtain a gun. "In fact, more than half the arrestees say it is easy to obtain guns illegally," the report states. Responding to a question of how they obtained their most recent handgun, the arrestees answered as follows: 56% said they paid cash; 15% said it was a gift; 10% said they borrowed it; 8% said they traded for it; while 5% only said that they stole it.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/guns/procon/guns.html

Even if you include straw purchases (which are illegal in the first place, and cannot be considered "retail") most criminals obtain their weapons thorugh other than "retail" purchases.

All of those are retail - ultimately all guns crooks have were purchased at retail, weasel though you may to deflect that.

Guns that are not available at retail will quickly not be available to criminals.

10-15% only are stolen.

1-2% are smuggled.

The rest all were sold legally in the first instance. All paths go across the counter of a gun store.

Restrict what you can get there absolutely, and you necessarily restrict what criminals have access to.

Unless you have the Creator putting a gun tree somewhere, you have no other options.