but actually do anything meaningfull? well i do hope he will do something now instead of only talking.
I certainly hope so too, though Obama's track record does not look so good so far. His target for Copenhagen negotiations was a big disappointment to rest of the world (-4% from 1990 levels by 2020). And his administration has failed to pass dedicated climate legislation. There's only the Clean Air Act and related regulatory work by EPA which has led to a modest reduction of GHG emissions in US (with the secular rising trend of Natural Gas usage). So at least some progress has already happened during last few years.
But after a decade of procrastination it will take a lot for US to become a leader in the global effort, and I'm not sure if it will happen at all - more likely other's will lead (probably eventually China).
I try to remain reasonably optimistic about Obama's latest pledge. I guess a lot will depend on American public, as Obama will need both public and political support for the efforts.
Meanwhile the rest of the world is moving on:
GLOBE Study reveals legistators hold the key to tackling climate change
The study, produced in partnership with LSE Grantham Research, is the most comprehensive audit of climate legislation across the world’s major developed and emerging economies.
“The tide is beginning to turn decisively on tackling climate change, the defining material challenge of this century. In the past year alone, as described in this latest study by GLOBE International and the Grantham Research Institute, 32 out of 33 surveyed countries have introduced or are progressing significant climate-related legislation. In 2012 alone, 18 of the 33 countries made significant progress. This is a game-changing development, driven by emerging economies, but taking place across each and every continent. Most importantly it challenges how governments look at the international negotiations up to 2015 requiring much greater focus by governments to support national legislation.”
Local and national legislation is critical in committing to international efforts of carbon reduction. Without national legislation it would be much more difficult for a country to negotiate or commit to ambitious international targets, never mind leading the international efforts. The progress in national legislations is encouraging sign towards the negotiations by 2015.
That GLOBE study is very informative reading:
The GLOBE Climate Legislation Study (it's almost 500 pages, and my apologies for the following lenghty quotes of some key points).
Here's a video introduction:
http://vimeo.com/57092506
The report covers 33 countries, including many developing countries. It includes 17 of the top 20 emitters of GHGs, and 24 of the top 50, representing over 85% of global emissions.
Some key points from 2012:
- 32 of 33 major economies have progressed or are progressing significant climate and/or energy-related legislation.
- Whilst the approach often differs (whether directly inspired by climate change, energy efficiency, energy security or competitiveness), national legislation is achieving remarkably similar results -- improved energy security, greater resource-efficiency and cleaner, lower carbon economic growth.
- Much of the substantive progress on legislative activity on climate change in 2012 took place in emerging economies, including China, which will provide the motor of global economic growth in coming decades.
- While current national legislation does not yet, cumulatively, add up to what needs to be done to avoid dangerous climate change, it is putting in place the necessary mechanisms to measure, report and verify emissions, a pre-requisite for a credible global climate treaty.
- This progress will deliver real benefits to national economies and, ultimately, give world leaders the political space to go further and faster in the UN negotiations, helping provide a foundation for a comprehensive, global deal by 2015.
- Mexico passed The General Law on Climate Change, with a target to reduce GHG emissions by 30% versus Business As Usual by 2020 and creating institutional structures to support delivery; Mexico also passed the world’s first legislation relating to REDD+ readiness.
- South Korea passed legislation that will see the introduction of an emissions trading scheme by 2015.
- Bangladesh passed the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority Act.
- China has begun to draft its national climate change law and local legislation was passed in Shenzhen to manage GHG emissions – the first such legislation in China.
- India published its 12th Five Year Plan, incorporating a range of recommendations from the Low Carbon Expert Group.
- Indonesia passed a ministerial regulation to expand thermal energy.
- Japan introduced a carbon tax and passed the Low Carbon City Development Act.
- Kenya developed its Climate Change National Action Plan and is taking through parliament a Climate Change Authority Bill, both of which are expected to be finalised in early 2013.
- Vietnam passed its National REDD+ Action Programme.
Summaries of some developed countries in 2012:
EU:
...although many Member States have pushed the EU to increase its overall ambition by committing to a 30% reduction in GHG emissions relative to 1990 by 2020, internal opposition from a few fossil fuel dependent Member States has meant this has not been possible [*cough* Poland *cough*]. The EU has also encountered strong international opposition to its decision to include aviation in the EU’s emissions trading scheme, resulting in a decision to “stop the clock” for 12 months to allow the International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO) to try to broker an international solution. Despite these difficulties, some progress has been made with the passage of a new Directive on Energy Efficiency.
EU's target for 2020 has been 20% reduction of GHG emissions, share of renewables to 20%, and improving energy efficiency by 20%.
EU has already reduced it's GHG emissions 18% from 1990 level and is well on track to reach at least 20% by 2020, probably even 25%. The 30% target is still possible but it is not likely EU will commit to it unilaterally - originally in 2009 EU's offer was to commit to it if some other developed nations start doing their fair share.
US:
Following the failure to pass dedicated climate change legislation in the USA, the Obama Administration has shifted to a regulatory approach using existing powers under the Clean Air Act. The “endangerment finding” from 2009, whereby carbon dioxide was ruled to be a pollutant under the Clean Air Act, has required the Environment Protection Agency (EPA) to proceed with developing new regulations to manage CO2 emissions. In 2012, a permitting system was extended to existing sources of CO2e if they emit over 100,000 tonnes annually. Additionally, in March 2012, the EPA released a draft ruling limiting carbon pollution from new power plants. After two public hearings on the proposed rule, the agency received almost 3 million comments in favour of reducing carbon pollution from both new and existing power plants – a record for an EPA rule proposal. As of December 2012 the agency is finalising the rule.
"almost 3 million comments in favour", now that is very encouraging to hear!
Japan:
It is likely, in the short term at least, that reduced nuclear power production following the shutdown and safety inspections after the Fukushima disaster will result in higher use of fossil fuels, with a resulting increase in GHG emissions. However, despite these challenges, in its Fourth Basic Environment Plan (agreed by Cabinet Decision on 27 April 2012), Japan has set itself a target of reducing GHG emissions by 80% by 2050 and, in October, the government introduced a carbon tax.
Australia:
Australia moved toward the implementation of its 2011 Clean Energy Act and announced a decision to link its emissions trading scheme with the established EU scheme by 2018 at the latest.
The only country that has gone backwards is
Canada:
For the first time, one country – Canada – has regressed following its decision to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol and the subsequent repealing of its “flagship” climate legislation, the Kyoto Implementation Act.
There has been more progress in developing countries in 2012:
"The limited progress in developed countries contrasts with the progress made in many developing countries in 2012. Significant advances have been made, albeit in different ways, in Bangladesh, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Kenya, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, South Korea and Vietnam. Others, including China and South Africa, have made more modest forward steps."
Mexico:
Mexico is perhaps the standout country in 2012 with the passage of its General Law on Climate Change (GLCC) and pioneering legislation to prepare the ground for REDD+ implementation. The GLCC gives equal focus to mitigation and adaptation, putting into legislation Mexico’s target to reduce GHG emissions by 30% by 2020 versus her Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. It also mandates the creation of the institutional structures to support implementation of the law.
South Korea:
South Korea passed legislation that introduces a nationwide emissions trading scheme by 2015.
Brazil:
Brazil’s new forest code, approved by President Dilma on 18 October 2012 after protracted political debate, determines, among other things, that landowners in the Amazon must maintain 80% of the native forest on their land as a forest reserve protected by law.
China:
targets to decrease the carbon intensity of GDP by 17% by 2015; to decrease the energy intensity of GDP by 16%; to increase the share of non fossil fuel primary energy consumption to 11.4%; and to increase forest coverage by 21.6%.
etc.. etc...
Hopefully US is able to meet the challenge and Obama able to keep his pledge, but the part
"We must lead it" is not easy to achieve as the train has already left the station and others are moving on. "We should follow the others" might be more realistic goal for time being.
] That’s what will lend meaning to the creed our fathers once declared.