Vaccine/autism CT discussion

[squealpiggy]

Oh and I looked at the study. The conclusion is that the effectiveness of the vaccine for treating pertussis declines for each year following the fifth dose of DTaP. Not that DTaP doesn't work.

 

[pakeha]

Well, CM, thanks for posting this up.
One of the sources for your linked articles says this:

About 90 percent of Vermont children have been vaccinated, Kelso said, but the immunization rate for adults is much lower, probably in the neighborhood of 10 percent. And adults are believed to be primarily responsible for spreading the disease, largely via coughing and sneezing.
Free clinics to administer the vaccine to adults will be open at regional health department offices Wednesday, Chen said. The adult booster, called Tdap, has only been available in Vermont since 2006, so most people probably have not received it. Tdap also immunizes against tetanus and diphtheria.

Neither TDap nor the child version of the vaccine, DTaP, is foolproof. A majority of the 522 cases are in vaccinated children, Kelso said, adding that the effectiveness fades as years pass. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website, DTaP vaccines are 80 percent to 90 percent effective, and "about seven of 10 kids are fully protected five years after getting their last dose." Children typically receive five doses of DTaP between the age of 2 months and 6 years.

The highest incidence in Vermont is in the 10-to-14-year-old age group, Kelso said.

As for the adult vaccine, the CDC website states: "Our current estimate is that Tdap vaccination protects 7 of 10 people who receive it."

Vaccinated people who come down with the disease tend have less severe cases, Kelso said.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2012/12/13/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-in-vermont/1768527/

 

[carlitos]

Sounds like Vermont should consider a booster shot for 10 year olds?

 

[Giordano]

Interesting that solid evidence for increasing vaccinations for older children and adults is twisted into an argument against vaccines by those who do not understand disease transmission.

 

[jdc324]

For Clayton (when he returns):

What we know does not cause autism: too many vaccines:
http://www.iom.edu/Reports/2013/The-Childhood-Immunization-Schedule-and-Safety.aspx


What we know does cause autism (at least in part): genetics
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-204_162-57564306/25-new-gene-variants-linked-to-autism/

So, simple question: if you care about autistic children, you would urge more research into which one?

He's back now. Let's see if he answers your question...

He might be too busy with the brand new vaccine thread he's just started, mind.

 

[jdc324]

So they require multiple DTaP jabs but 90% of the confirmed whooping cough cases received multiple DTaP jabs. Doesn't that pretty much mean that the DTaP vaccine doesn't work?

If vaccine uptake is higher than 90%, it means that those who were vaccinated were less likely to get pertussis.

The last time I looked up vaccine coverage in the US it was 98% for pertussis.

 

[Dcdrac]

At what point do you wake up and realize your alarmist and misinformed anti-vax nonsense is...well...nonsense?

Unlike most of the conspiracy theory crap I see you promoting, the anti-vax clown wagon you've hopped on is demonstrably dangerous. But I guess you don't care about the millions who would get sick, and possibly die, if they followed you and your ilk's willfully ignorant and idiotic ideas about vaccines and medicine in general.

Clayton, feel free to avoid vaccines and any other mainstream medical treatments, if that is your wont. But I hope you really don't expect too many people with two or more neurons left firing to follow your lead.

Seconded

 

[jdc324]

I've just taken a look at some theoretical figures. I think the relative risk for those unvaccinated will be the same whatever the number of cases. As long as the figures for vaccine uptake (98%) and vaccinated cases (90%) are right this should be OK. If anyone here who isn't a bumbling charlatan would like to check my working out do please feel free to do so - and correct me loudly and publicly if I'm wrong. It looks to me like you're more than five times more likely to contract whooping cough if you're unvaccinated.

Pop 300000000 % vaxed 0.98 % unvaxed 0.02 number vaxed 294000000 number unvaxed 6000000 number with pertussis 10000 % ill & vaxed 0.9 % ill & unvaxed 0.1 no ill & vaxed 9000 no ill & unvaxed 1000 % of vaxed pop ill 0.00306122 % of unvaxed pop ill 0.01666667 Higher risk in unvaxed 5.44444444

(My table didn't paste properly but I have a screenshot of the excel sheet if that helps.)


…and that’s just covering the issue of whether or not you get whooping cough. I’ve not even addressed the question of whether your symptoms (if you had the vaccine) will be more or less severe than the unvaccinated.

The illness can be milder (less severe) and the typical "whoop" absent in children, teens, and adults who have been vaccinated with a pertussis vaccine. http://www.cdc.gov/pertussis/about/signs-symptoms.html

See also this: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1177947/ "Clinical picture of pertussis in previously immunized children is usually characterized by such classical symptoms as prolonged and paroxysmal cough, rarely by whopping and post-tussive vomiting, and very rarely by apnea."

So if you have the vaccine, not only are you less likely to contract the disease but you're more likely to have a milder case.

 

[LSSBB]

For Clayton (when he returns):

What we know does not cause autism: too many vaccines:
http://www.iom.edu/Reports/2013/The-Childhood-Immunization-Schedule-and-Safety.aspx


What we know does cause autism (at least in part): genetics
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-204_162-57564306/25-new-gene-variants-linked-to-autism/

So, simple question: if you care about autistic children, you would urge more research into which one?

Here is a list of the many potential causes under investigation:

13 things 'linked' to autism

Guess what isn't on the list?

 

[jdc324]

That most cases of pertussis are in those who have been vaccinated does raise an important issue – that of waning immunity. The answer to the problem of waning immunity in those vaccinated against pertussis isn’t to throw your hands up and say “well, vaccination’s useless then - we might as well give it up”. Some sensible solutions have been proposed. In California, I think 7th grade students are now required to have a booster. See also the BBC report here for ideas: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-18747527

One option is a booster dose in adolescence. Adam Finn, a professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol, agrees that a new strategy is required.
He told me: "Giving a booster to adolescents is one thing that might help, but other things being considered are immunising parents of newborn babies, pregnant women or health care workers."

There are basically three options – not to vaccinate against pertussis, to continue the current vaccination programme, or to add more vaccines. Personally, I don’t think much of the first option. We tried it once before in this country.


Here is what happened when there was an ill-founded scare surrounding the pertussis vaccine: “…immunisation coverage [dropped] to 30% in 1975 resulting in major epidemics in 1977/79 and 1981/83. As a result, there were more than 200,000 extra notifications and 100 deaths in 1970s and 1980s.”


So Clayton, what is your solution? To stop vaccinating and let kids die unnecessarily? To carry on as we are, with an imperfect vaccine, and hope for the best? Or to change strategy and add vaccines, perhaps boosters for older children or for health care staff & pregnant women?

 

[pakeha]

Thanks for posting up that link, LSSBB.

 

[Estellea]

So they require multiple DTaP jabs but 90% of the confirmed whooping cough cases received multiple DTaP jabs. Doesn't that pretty much mean that the DTaP vaccine doesn't work?

Hey Clay, here's a suggestion for you. Calculate the number of vaccinated and pertussis cases against the number of unvaccinated and pertussis cases. The attack rates will surprise you. The very same situation was observed in Washington State but voila it turns out that unvaccinated had a higher attack rate than vaccinated. There used to be a more effective vaccine for pertussis (whole cell) but anti-vaxx loonies made false allegations against that one and was pulled from the Western markets. However flawed, it is still far better than nothing but feel free, as usual, to actually propose an alternative instead of just kvetching about it and making specious allegations.

Este

 

[000063]

So they require multiple DTaP jabs but 90% of the confirmed whooping cough cases received multiple DTaP jabs. Doesn't that pretty much mean that the DTaP vaccine doesn't work?

Out of curiousity, when you go to McDonald's and they ask you "Do you want fries with that?" do you say "Are you saying I want fries with that? What makes you think I want fries with that? Why do you fast food huggers always think everyone wants fries with that?"

 

[Reality Check]

...snipped link to crackpot, conspiracy theory site -"Big Pharma & Mind Control" !...
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2012/12/13/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-in-vermont/1768527/

5 doses between the age of 2 months and 6 years old? At what point do you wake up and say the DTap vaccine doesn't work?

At what point do you learn to read English and comprehend that the DTap vaccine does work?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2012/12/13/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-in-vermont/1768527/

Neither TDap nor the child version of the vaccine, DTaP, is foolproof. A majority of the 522 cases are in vaccinated children, Kelso said, adding that the effectiveness fades as years pass. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website, DTaP vaccines are 80 percent to 90 percent effective, and "about seven of 10 kids are fully protected five years after getting their last dose." Children typically receive five doses of DTaP between the age of 2 months and 6 years.

 

[r-j]

Is there a chart somewhere that shows the scientific numbers for vaccinated vs un-vaccinated people? A long term study comparing populations that are exposed to the same conditions, but some of the people haven't been vaccinated, because they are against vaccines (like religious cults). Some study or database to show the differences?

I've seen long term studies like this done for other things. Is there one for vaccines?

 

[Estellea]

Is there a chart somewhere that shows the scientific numbers for vaccinated vs un-vaccinated people? A long term study comparing populations that are exposed to the same conditions, but some of the people haven't been vaccinated, because they are against vaccines (like religious cults). Some study or database to show the differences?

I've seen long term studies like this done for other things. Is there one for vaccines?

Most are retrospective analyses of outbreaks comparing vaccine status and attack rates. There is this recent one that comes to mind that examines health outcomes of vaccinated v. unvaccinated. A small study that requires replication but interesting nonetheless in addition to the cherry-picking authors of the commentaries. The U.S. Vaccine Safety Database (VSD) has information that researchers may use to examine this question if they so choose.

Este

 

[Clayton Moore]

At what point do you learn to read English and comprehend that the DTap vaccine does work?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2012/12/13/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-in-vermont/1768527/

About 90 percent of Vermont children have been vaccinated, Kelso said, but the immunization rate for adults is much lower, probably in the neighborhood of 10 percent. And adults are believed to be primarily responsible for spreading the disease, largely via coughing and sneezing.

Neither TDap nor the child version of the vaccine, DTaP, is foolproof. A majority of the 522 cases are in vaccinated children, Kelso said, adding that the effectiveness fades as years pass. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website, DTaP vaccines are 80 percent to 90 percent effective, and "about seven of 10 kids are fully protected five years after getting their last dose." Children typically receive five doses of DTaP between the age of 2 months and 6 years.

Are you familiar with the term "almost mutually exclusive"?

Children typically receive five doses of DTaP between the age of 2 months and 6 years.

So how does getting a vaccine once a year for 5 straight years mean the vaccine works?

A majority of the 522 cases are in vaccinated children

And we're told it's spread to vaccinated children by sneezing adults.

Then we're told a booster shot is likely necessary.

About 90 percent of Vermont children have been vaccinated, Kelso said, but the immunization rate for adults is much lower, probably in the neighborhood of 10 percent.

Shouldn't the sneezing adults be spreading it to unvaccinated adults at work?

Isn't that how the flu is spread among adults?

 

[Clayton Moore]

Here is a list of the many potential causes under investigation:

13 things 'linked' to autism

Guess what isn't on the list?

My fav, not on your list, is the one that says the children of poor people are less likely to become autistic. That along with older men and old women just means that they would have more access to health care for their children than younger/poor parents. More access equals more vaccines.

Plus less healthy children would obviously vulnerable vaccine side effects.

 

[dafydd]

My fav, not on your list, is the one that says the children of poor people are less likely to become autistic. .

There is a very good reason why it's not on the list. Can you guess what the reason is?

 

[Estellea]

My fav, not on your list, is the one that says the children of poor people are less likely to become autistic. That along with older men and old women just means that they would have more access to health care for their children than younger/poor parents. More access equals more vaccines.

Plus less healthy children would obviously vulnerable vaccine side effects.

Wrong again; lower socio-economic groups are less likely to have access to services to receive diagnoses. But that is changing because when we look for it, it's found. And you contradict yourself by saying poorer children would be more vulnerable to vaccine side effects but at the same time, are less likely to "become autistic".

Este