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Romney on intrade

Where will Romney bottom out on Intrade

  • 31-32%

    Votes: 6 14.0%

  • 30-31%

    Votes: 3 7.0%

  • 29-30%

    Votes: 4 9.3%

  • 27-29%

    Votes: 1 2.3%

  • 25-27%

    Votes: 4 9.3%

  • Less than 25%

    Votes: 25 58.1%
  • Total voters
    43
JoeTheJuggler said:
I guess now is the time to cut your losses.
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Looks that way. The props were pushing it back up to $3.50 several different times yesterday, but I doubt we'll see much action from them in this sort of selling frenzy.
 
I don't know that he'll drop below $2.50, although I think that's where I placed my vote. I just think there are too many Fox viewers or Washington Examiner readers out there who, albeit a minority, think Romney's going to win and $2.75 to $3.00 is a real tempting price for them. I think it'll keep bouncing, but will be surprised if it goes too low.

Does anyone know at what time they close the "trading floor"?
 
NotJesus said:
According to Nate Silver's latest calculations, it's now about a 1 in 7 chance.
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Which is fine but that assumes that Nate Silver's model is accurate (I don't know enough about it to know how many elections it has been used to predict (as opposed to postdict) ) and that the input data is also accurate (Nate Silver mentions this regularly).

The polls in the key states have Obama in the lead but the lead is smaller than the margin of error in many cases.

For example, Nate Silver has Wisconsin at 97.2% for Obama but the BBC Radio 5 news has reported that the Republicans are very likely to win it. Nate Silver has Florida now just shading it for Obama but the BBC is reporting that Florida is very likely to go to Romney.

I'd very much like Obama to be re-elected with a big, big majority in the electoral college but the margins are too tight to be confident.
 
The Don said:
Which is fine but that assumes that Nate Silver's model is accurate (I don't know enough about it to know how many elections it has been used to predict (as opposed to postdict) ) and that the input data is also accurate (Nate Silver mentions this regularly).

The polls in the key states have Obama in the lead but the lead is smaller than the margin of error in many cases.

For example, Nate Silver has Wisconsin at 97.2% for Obama but the BBC Radio 5 news has reported that the Republicans are very likely to win it. Nate Silver has Florida now just shading it for Obama but the BBC is reporting that Florida is very likely to go to Romney.

I'd very much like Obama to be re-elected with a big, big majority in the electoral college but the margins are too tight to be confident.
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What is the Beeb's record on American election prediction?
 
The Don said:
For example, Nate Silver has Wisconsin at 97.2% for Obama but the BBC Radio 5 news has reported that the Republicans are very likely to win it.
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I dunno where Radio 5 is getting that from. Obama has been leading in every poll in WI since August.
 
The Don said:
They were basing it on reports of late large swings towards Romney because of support for Ryan.
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As far as I know, there has been no such thing. Obama's polling has been consistent in WI for months. The latest three polls (saturday) in WI had Obama up between 3 and 6 points. It looks like they haven't even bothered to poll WI sunday or monday.

ETA: oops, look like there was a poll on monday it had Obama up by 7. And one on sunday which had obama up by 4.
 
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Foolmewunz said:
Does anyone know at what time they close the "trading floor"?
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According to the rules for that market:

Settlement will be based on the outcome of the 2012 United States Presidential election, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources. If there is any uncertainty over the outcome, or any delays in confirming the outcome, Intrade reserves the right to wait for further information before settling this market. All markets will remain open until until the result is known (in case there is a change in party nominee or something unforseen happens).
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