Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

This is weird, I went to the Wiki site on RCP and clicked to the link on Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight and there was a notice that "You have a new message". Clicking on that I got this:
April 2010

Welcome to Wikipedia. The recent edit that you made to the page Belgium has been reverted, as it appears to be unconstructive and is easily considered vandalism. You may also wish to read the introduction to editing for further information. Thank you. --Buster7 (talk) 03:15, 26 April 2010 (UTC)
[edit]October 2010

Please refrain from making test edits in Wikipedia pages, such as those you made to Greek and Latin roots in English, even if you intend to fix them later. Such edits appear to be vandalism and have been reverted. If you would like to experiment again, please use the sandbox. Thank you. Mild Bill Hiccup (talk) 08:58, 10 October 2010 (UTC)
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I never edit Wiki and I was not signed in, anyway. :confused:
 
The best indicator of Romney's lack of momentum is that it seems like weeks since applecorped has posted in this thread.
 
varwoche said:
I wonder why RCP doesn't provide polling history per pollster per contest, at least for the current election cycle, so we can see trends. (Or do they?) Might this be a limit imposed by the polling organizations?
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In their on-line survey, this was what I requested in the "suggestions" area. Specifically, "you guys understand the value of statistical averaging, but with so many polls available, and you folks already having the pollsters previous results, couldn't you include a column that gives an accuracy weighting to an individual pollster".

ETA: Your second question - No, I don't think it's a limit placed on them by the pollsters. Sometimes RCP will include the history of some pollsters in the expanded results. (If you click on a race it shows you the latest couple of weeks of polls. If you expand that, you'll see more.) But it's not "by pollster", it's all the results that they decide to show. For heavily polled states and for the presidential election, there are so many polls that they knock out many of them, though.
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
No, and my wireless is pass protected. Now when I click on the Wiki site the message is gone.

Weird.....
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Most people do not have a fixed IP address from their ISP, but get assigned an address from a DHCP pool. What happened here is most likely that somebody did an edit while not signed in and using the IP address you were later assigned.

Nothing to worry about.
 
Is it about time for Rasmussen to do a last-minute revision to their predictions so they can claim to be the most accurate?
 
Upchurch said:
Is it about time for Rasmussen to do a last-minute revision to their predictions so they can claim to be the most accurate?
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They already started...their last couple of national polls and their recent Ohio poll have all shifted two or so points towards Obama, and are listed as "tie".

In the latest roundup of national polls, in fact, Romney is not leading in a single one - there are 9 showing Obama ahead, and four (including Rasmussen) showing a tie.
 
BenBurch said:
Most people do not have a fixed IP address from their ISP, but get assigned an address from a DHCP pool. What happened here is most likely that somebody did an edit while not signed in and using the IP address you were later assigned.

Nothing to worry about.
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I wasn't too worried.


I thought an IP address stayed a bit longer than that, though. I know when my router was acting up turning the modem off and on set a new IP address. Does the IP address change every time the wireless resets? I thought it was only when you followed the 'turn the modem off for 2 minutes' procedure?
 
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I was looking at Sam Wang's site. He has three Java versions of the electoral map, -- current polling data, 2% Obama boost in each state, and 2% Romney boost. If you give Romney a 2% boost, and award him the resulting tossup states of Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire, you get an EC result of:

Obama 271
Romney 267

Wang's "meta-margin" is 2.38%, currently. Basically, you would need a shift larger than 2.38 to get to a Romney win.
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
I wasn't too worried.


I thought an IP address stayed a bit longer than that, though. I know when my router was acting up turning the modem off and on set a new IP address. Does the IP address change every time the wireless resets? I thought it was only when you followed the 'turn the modem off for 2 minutes' procedure?
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Depends. All DHCP leases have a lifetime, in Cable ISPs it is usually set to a few months, so it could have reset without being turned off because it aged out.
 
Gallup got back on line in time to have their last seven embarrassing polls adjusted. They and Rasmussen come in at Romney +1.

I've been mentally conceding VA to Romney for the past month. Some believable-sounding talking head from a University convinced me of that when I was half awake one morning. I didn't see Obama covering +300, but apparently Silver's count and the RCP average have it trending that way.
 
Oh hooray, only one more day of this. (Hopefully)

At least only one more day of the voting part anyway.
 
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