• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

Upchurch said:
:confused: wut

100.2%?
Click to expand...

Market inefficiencies. No big deal.

There are two different sides you can take to two different bets.

You can bet that Obama will win or that Obama will not win.

Similarly you can bet that Romney will win or that Romney will not win.

If you think that Obama will win you can either make that bet or bet that Romney will not win. The values of these may be slightly different depending on the current supply and demand for each bet.
 
So it appears that RCP has recently moved North Carolina into "leans likely" for Romney, putting him in the lead at 201-206 in the electoral count. Not that this wasn't expected, but I am a bit confused as to why Michigan and Pennsylvania are still both listed as swing states on RCP despite the states displaying a heavy favor toward Obama, even after his first debate performance. Maybe someone who better understands how RCP operates could help me understand.
 
Last edited:
UTLonghorn said:
So it appears that RCP has recently moved North Carolina into "leans likely" for Romney, putting him in the lead at 201-206 in the electoral count. Not that this wasn't expected, but I am a bit confused as to why Michigan and Pennsylvania are still both listed as swing states on RCP despite the states displaying a heavy favor toward Obama, even after his first debate performance. Maybe someone who better understands how RCP operates could help me understand.
Click to expand...

That doesn't make sense to me. Nate Silver now gives Romney an 86% chance of winning North Carolina, while Pennsylvania and Michigan are over 90% to go for Obama.

When in doubt, I trust Nate's number-crunching.
 
In the presidential election debates they are talking about rich people and poor people, never about wise people!
 
alfa1 said:
In the presidential election debates they are talking about rich people and poor people, never about wise people!
Click to expand...

Wise people? They're aimed at the currently undecided voters. How incurious and ill-informed must you be to be undecided at this point?
 
NotJesus said:
That doesn't make sense to me. Nate Silver now gives Romney an 86% chance of winning North Carolina, while Pennsylvania and Michigan are over 90% to go for Obama.

When in doubt, I trust Nate's number-crunching.
Click to expand...

I agree. I started to become more skeptical of RCP's methodology when they started to seriously claim that Missouri was a "tossup" state when Romney was ahead by 5-6% in the aggregated polling a few weeks back. After that, I haven't even seriously looked at their Electoral College map.

I, too, will give much more credence to Nate Silver's work.

In addition, at Predictwise.com, there is a prediction market specifically for the Electoral College with people betting on a state-by-state basis. I particularly like the map form of this market.

Presently, the Predictwise.com EC market has...

Obama 281
Romney 257
 
Last edited:
A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.
Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.
It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.


http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-...lue-pennsylvania/article/2511153#.UIC2GFQzLhV
 
MattusMaximus said:
In addition, at Predictwise.com, there is a prediction market specifically for the Electoral College with people betting on a state-by-state basis. I particularly like the map form of this market.

Presently, the Predictwise.com EC market has...

Obama 281
Romney 257
Click to expand...

Generalizing from comments I read prior to the first debate, Obama should not be looking to win a squeaker, nor get just an electoral college win. He should be looking for a mandate, and that means securing the votes of the people.

I agree. Given the acidic tone that political discussions take these days, the more of the general vote he wins, the more legitimacy and political capital he'll have and the stronger the mandate.

My prediction: Obama will win somehow, but not convincingly enough to silence much of the squabbling which will go on for years.
 
Last edited:
Jimbo07 said:
My prediction: Obama will win somehow, but not convincingly enough to silence much of the squabbling which will go on for years.
Click to expand...
Didn't you hear? "Elections mean something." At least that's what our friends on the right proclaimed after their wins in the 2010 mid-terms. Funny how they didn't say it quite as loudly just after the 2008 election (see: Tea Party, Mitch McConnell, Party of No, etc.).
 
applecorped said:
A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.
Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.
It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-...lue-pennsylvania/article/2511153#.UIC2GFQzLhV
Click to expand...

One poll?

Haven't learned much from the thread, eh?
 
applecorped said:
A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.
Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.
It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.


http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-...lue-pennsylvania/article/2511153#.UIC2GFQzLhV
Click to expand...

An outlier from a GOP pollster.

Susquehanna, 10/13 -- Romney +4
Muhlenberg, 10/14 -- Obama +4
Public Policy, 10/14 -- Obama +7
Quinnipiac, 10/14 -- Obama +4
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom