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Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

Trigger Warning: Unseemly Home Team Cheering Follows

Caper said:
I'm surprised Obama is sooo polarizing. The people that hate him.... really hate him.
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Have you been napping for four years? How does this relate to the topic of the thread?

OT: And right on schedule for the debates, we have a major tightening and Romney is up by the diameter of a cat's whisker... + 0.2 The other interesting factor is that the three most recent pollsters have come in with 96, 96 and 95% "decided". This leaves only 4 or 5 per cent to decide the election. Seems that fewer and fewer are calling themselves undecided.

What I'm seeing is that there wasn't a Romney bounce after the first debate, but an Obama nosedive. And I've been expecting this tightening up. The dust has settled and the Obama fans who were disappointed have shaken off the PDTSD (post debate traumatic stress disorder) and are back on board. If I'm right, you'll also see the conservative glee club like Huckabee with a little less swagger. (Anyone see his reprehensible show this weekend?)

I expect a "wash" in the debate, and as we are well aware, "tie goes to the runner". If neither draws blood and/or farts at the podium and/or falls over his shoe laces walking out onto the stage, then the guy you were pulling for is the winner. With Romney flattening out in the national polls, the swing states will start to look painful for him again rather soon.
 
BenBurch said:
Depends do they do a truncate or a round operation usually?
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I dunno. I'm just being a prick, essentially.

I'm interested in seeing what PPP comes up with for PA today. They mentioned last night that they hadn't done one in a while and they usually weight very heavily Dem. (I generally dismiss them, but I'm curious if they come in at my predicted Obama +8 or +9 it'll take the average to over +5 and that should, by most of their standards move it from Undecided to Leans Obama. Gonna be some unhappy campers on one side of the aisle in the Town Hall tonight if it does.

ETA: Two new polls posted, but they dropped out the bottom polls and one of those was Romney +4. It is dead even according to the RCP average, but the graph is very telling. Sharp peak upwards for Obama in the last five days while Romney's is going down.
 
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And in the anomalous reporting category, the winner is..... CBS News. This article was published an hour ago.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57532375/polls-on-eve-on-second-debate-romney-on-the-rise/

And it seems as though they started writing the article on Saturday or Sunday and just told one of the interns to insert the figures from the morning. They do manage to befuddle things a bit by paying more attention to the approval and trust ratings, but they sort of clearly missed that Romney's dropped about two points in the last three days in the popular vote estimates.

Is this what Hannity and Greta and O'Reilly and Huckabie refer to as the biased liberal media? I think it's pretty apparent.... the media just wants a horse race.
 
Buckle up....

according to Nate Silver it's going to be a bumpy ride.

63.3% / 36.7%
 
Foolmewunz said:
Have you been napping for four years? How does this relate to the topic of the thread?

OT: And right on schedule for the debates, we have a major tightening and Romney is up by the diameter of a cat's whisker... + 0.2 The other interesting factor is that the three most recent pollsters have come in with 96, 96 and 95% "decided". This leaves only 4 or 5 per cent to decide the election. Seems that fewer and fewer are calling themselves undecided.

What I'm seeing is that there wasn't a Romney bounce after the first debate, but an Obama nosedive. And I've been expecting this tightening up. The dust has settled and the Obama fans who were disappointed have shaken off the PDTSD (post debate traumatic stress disorder) and are back on board. If I'm right, you'll also see the conservative glee club like Huckabee with a little less swagger. (Anyone see his reprehensible show this weekend?)
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Well said. I think Joe Biden did a HUGE amount to help give the Democrats back their mojo.

I expect a "wash" in the debate, and as we are well aware, "tie goes to the runner". If neither draws blood and/or farts at the podium and/or falls over his shoe laces walking out onto the stage, then the guy you were pulling for is the winner. With Romney flattening out in the national polls, the swing states will start to look painful for him again rather soon.
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This is already the case. From what I've seen, despite his "bounce" he was still polling well behind President Obama in the critical swing state of Ohio.

As you said, the problem for Romney is that he really needs to maintain his momentum, and it just doesn't look like that's going to happen. If he hit his "bounce" one week before the election, it might have made the difference, but now he's starting to fade in the polls again. And without that momentum, President Obama is going to win by default.

Put simply: all Obama needs do is hold Romney off. Romney has the really hard work to do in this election.

Incidentally, over at Predictwise.com:

Obama 64.7%
Romney 35.5%
 
MattusMaximus said:
Put simply: all Obama needs do is hold Romney off. Romney has the really hard work to do in this election.

Incidentally, over at Predictwise.com:

Obama 64.7%
Romney 35.5%
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Good analysis. I concur (I love that word). However, I honestly think Obama will be vulnerable during the debates. Romney's got little to lose and everything to gain by being bold and aggressive. Obama has a lot to lose. He need to not be too aggressive. I suspect that this was part of the reason for his last performance. Wanting just to hold Romney off. He's got to do a bit better during the debates.
 
RandFan said:
He's got to do a bit lot better during the debates.
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I think if he just plays defense, he'll look like a wimp, not a President, compared to Biden. Biden did two things at once. He pulled his party's bacon out of the fire and also considerably raised the bar for Obama. If he remains aloof, he loses.
 
SezMe said:
I think if he just plays defense, he'll look like a wimp, not a President, compared to Biden. Biden did two things at once. He pulled his party's bacon out of the fire and also considerably raised the bar for Obama. If he remains aloof, he loses.
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Agreed. But it is a fine line though valor is likely the better part of discretion in this instance. Give 'em hell Obama. Batten all hatches and balls to the wall (mixing my nautical and aviator metaphors). But do it in a nice, dignified and respectful way.
 
RandFan said:
Agreed. But it is a fine line though valor is likely the better part of discretion in this instance. Give 'em hell Obama. Batten all hatches and balls to the wall (mixing my nautical and aviator metaphors). But do it in a nice, dignified and respectful way.
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Exactly....

Let's face it, Obama is Obama. He isn't a "put your dukes up and let's fight it out" kind of guy. He is a more of a "let's work it out together" sort (kind of ironic when we put that in context with what he has had to deal with from Congress during his term). In general I prefer this type of exchange but it doesn't really work well in a debate setting unfortunately.

All indications out of the Obama camp point to him coming out "slugging" which for him would mean a polite "hummm... excuse me Mr. Romney, do you mind providing some details around that please." That would be better than the last debate for sure.

Anyway, he is who he is and I don't expect him to be nearly as feisty as Biden which I think is good. I just want him to call BS when there is BS to be called. Because Romney doesn't really have a lot of ammo in his gun belt outside of BS I don't think Obama needs to do much more than that.
 
MattusMaximus said:
I don't know... part of me thinks it actually might be a good thing for the nation.

Has there ever been a split ticket like that in U.S. history?
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There used to be, before the VP position was already picked by the president. But that was LONG ago.
 
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