Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

Neally said:
That's the ironic part. They indeed complained about that. With the recent shift in the polls, now the left is doing the same damned thing.
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Evidence?

I don't dispute that some on the left may be doing this; I'd just like to see a link on it.

Anyone, left or right, going on about "skewed" polls is just an idiot.

After BO was elected, all the talk was about how the GOP was dead. Kinda like when Nixon left office. The pendulum swings back and forth. We'll see a GOP president in this or the next election cycle. Balance of power will shift back and forth in the Congress also. People get tired of one party and switch to another. People that think otherwise are deluded. Parties will pander and adapt anyway the can to capture the votes.
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I tend to agree with your pendulum analogy, but I do think that the GOP has created for themselves a big demographic problem which has the potential to limit the effectiveness of Republican candidates in national elections. Ben's points about the landscape of the Electoral College are good ones, and I think the strategists in the GOP would be wise to take heed.

That said, Romney could still win, but it is still a long uphill slog for him.
 
I see two demographic trends that come into play. One is the increasing urbanization of the nation. And cities tend to be blue - and I don't think that is going to change. In a sane world, this trend would have a downward force on the huge subsidies for Big Farm but I don't think that is going to happen because Senate power is skewed to the small, rural states.

The other is the increase in the Latino population. Here, however, I think the GOP has a shot at getting a significant chunk of what I see as a natural slice of the electorate for them. If (and it's a big "if") the GOP can lose the immigrant bashing and embrace the Catholic vote, they could do pretty well. One way the GOP can help the Catholics in this regard is to convince them to get off the birth control crazy wagon.

We'll see.
 
RandFan said:
Yeah, those who are easily swayed by religious nonsense and anti-science are dying by the thousands daily. The younger generations don't hate gay people or science.
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So young people don't oppose vaccines, or nuclear power plants, or genetically modified foods or fracking? Good to hear; in that case they will surely be voting Republican.
 
Brainster said:
So young people don't oppose vaccines, or nuclear power plants, or genetically modified foods or fracking? Good to hear; in that case they will surely be voting Republican.
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Yeah, this equivalency you keep pushing is totally legitimate. For every Creationist, climate change-denying, homophobic fundamentalist whacko who actually enjoyed a stint as frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination, there was some anti-vaxer, GMOphobe high in the ranks of the Democratic party. For every GOP-controlled state legislature passing bills to force anti-science nonsense into the classroom, there's a Democratic-led state legislature trying to outlaw flu shots. Absolutely.
 
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MattusMaximus said:
Evidence?

I don't dispute that some on the left may be doing this; I'd just like to see a link on it.

Anyone, left or right, going on about "skewed" polls is just an idiot.
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Check this very thread after the debate when Rasmussen first showed the bump. There were cries of how bad and skewed a pollster Rasmussen is. Now we have most of the others showing the Romney bump, with Rasmussen now showing the SMALLEST bump.

Then there were those talking how RCP was in on the skewing by dropping off the older polls which resulted a stronger average showing for Romney.
 
Brainster said:
So young people don't oppose vaccines, or nuclear power plants, or genetically modified foods or fracking? Good to hear; in that case they will surely be voting Republican.
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Again with the false equivalency. What Democratic politician is pushing to stop vaccines, nuclear power plans or genetically modified foods or fracking? There have been a huge increase of bills that re anti-immigration, anti-women, etc., etc.. And the GOP exploit these sentiments to their purpose. If folks on the left relied on all the things you listed to keep them in power then it might be a discussion starter as the significance of your list is otherwise debatable. I'm sorry but at this time you've got nothing comparable. At best your argument supports the idea that the lunatics are moving to the left. If that's the case the then Dems can exploit them. I hope they wouldn't but that's hardly an argument in your favor.
 
Looks like it's a real race now...

Romney Erases Obama’s Convention Bounce in Forecast
Following another day of strong polling on Tuesday, Mitt Romney advanced into the best position in the FiveThirtyEight forecast since the party conventions. His chances of winning the Electoral College are now 28.8 percent in the forecast, his highest since Aug. 29. For the first time since Aug. 28, President Obama is projected to win fewer than 300 electoral votes. And Mr. Obama’s projected margin of victory in the national popular vote — 2.0 percentage points — represents the closest the race has been since June 27.

The forecast model is not quite ready to jump on board with the notion that the race has become a literal toss-up; Mr. Romney will need to maintain his bounce for a few more days, or extend it into high-quality polls of swing states, before we can be surer about that. ...
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However, it's still hard going for Romney, mostly because President Obama still continues to poll more strongly in critical swing states (except for Florida, looks like FL might go to Romney):

... Mr. Romney’s numbers are just slightly weaker in the majority of swing state polls, however. In the day just after the debate, Mr. Romney led in five of six polls between the top nine “tipping-point states,” but Mr. Obama has led in 10 of 14 such polls since then. ...
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I'm still betting on President Obama because the electoral math is still heavily in his favor. He could lose every swing state and still win assuming he gets New Hampshire. Romney, by contrast, still has to win every single swing state including New Hampshire.

It's going to be interesting :popcorn1
 
Neally said:
Check this very thread after the debate when Rasmussen first showed the bump. There were cries of how bad and skewed a pollster Rasmussen is. Now we have most of the others showing the Romney bump, with Rasmussen now showing the SMALLEST bump.

Then there were those talking how RCP was in on the skewing by dropping off the older polls which resulted a stronger average showing for Romney.
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Yup, like I said, dumb all over. Sometimes people just need to let the data speak for themselves, instead of reading "skewing conspiracies" into everything. That said, I do think Rasmussen has a bias in favor of Republicans, but there are other polling outlets which have a bias in favor of Democrats. That is why I hate referencing individual polls and prefer to look at deeper analysis like that at RCP and especially FiveThirtyEight. I think anyone who has a tendency to focus upon one poll or another is engaging in clear confirmation bias, whether they know it or not.
 
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Worst case scenario...

If the election were to be held today Romney would very likely lose. To win, the current trend in favor of Romney would have to continue (he's still a ways from halfway). It's certainly Possible but the long term analysis doesn't support that which is why Obama still has better stock prices and betting odds.
 
RandFan said:
If the election were to be held today Romney would very likely lose. To win, the current trend in favor of Romney would have to continue (he's still a ways from halfway). It's certainly Possible but the long term analysis doesn't support that which is why Obama still has better stock prices and betting odds.
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No, worst case scenario is that Romney wins (still a longshot given the electoral landscape) and the Dems hold the Senate.

And a LOT more gridlock.
 
This will make some of you feel better:

NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Romney gains in key swing states but Obama leads among early voters.

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.
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One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.
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Puppycow said:
This will make some of you feel better:

NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Romney gains in key swing states but Obama leads among early voters.
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That's certainly good news for Obama, but I was under the impression from looking at FiveThirtyEight.com that Obama is still holding his own in many of the swing states. In many of them it seems he has started to recover in the most recent polls... we'll see how it goes.
 
Things are starting to reverse in the prediction markets post-VP debate, it seems. Compared to just before the VP debate, President Obama is rising (+2%) and Romney is dropping (-3%) as I write this.

IEM is updating too slowly for a snapshot; I'll have to check on IEM tomorrow for an update.

ETA: We'll see how it shakes out in the next few days.
 
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MattusMaximus said:
Things are starting to reverse in the prediction markets post-VP debate, it seems. Compared to just before the VP debate, President Obama is rising (+2%) and Romney is dropping (-3%) as I write this.

IEM is updating too slowly for a snapshot; I'll have to check on IEM tomorrow for an update.

ETA: We'll see how it shakes out in the next few days.
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What's the latest?
 
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