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2012 Debates

I gotta say, I'm slightly tipsy, but it appears that Romney is kicking Obama's butt. Got him on the defensive really early on.

I just wish Romney would stop smirking.
 
not_so_new said:
Really??
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The most important part of Nate Silver's analysis of presidential debates...

... But here’s the bad news for Mr. Romney: no candidate who trailed by as much he did heading into the first debate went on to win the election. In the two cases where the lead reversed after the debate, 1980 and 2000, the trailing candidate was down only one or two points in the polls. The FiveThirtyEight “now-cast,” conversely, pegs Mr. Romney’s deficit at about 5 points instead. (Other methods put it at between three and four points.)

More bad news for Mr. Romney: although there has been a tendency for the challenging candidate to gain ground immediately after the first debate, there has not been any tendency for the challenger to gain over the remaining weeks of the election. On average during these years, the challenging candidate trailed by 1.5 percentage points in polls conducted just after the first debate — and the challenger eventually lost the election, on average, by 1.4 percentage points, a nearly identical margin. ...
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Bottom Line: Unless President Obama eats a live baby on stage during the debate(s), they will have little impact on the outcome of the race.
 
Wangler said:
That's Romney's way of trying to be "likable"...:eek:
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This is the thing Romney the Robot just doesn't get... if he looks like a smarmy jerkoff, then people will think he is a smarmy jerkoff. Duh.

That damn smirk of his is going to undo any progress he could have made during the debate.
 
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