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Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

BenBurch said:
This may become an unexpected landslide.

Color me stunned.
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I doubt that, and I'm not in the "stick a fork in him" camp, but barring a possible-but-unlikely rapid turnaround, it looks like it will be at least comfortable. So much so that we need to wonder how long Obama's coattails are. No, I don't think many voters are going to change who they support, but if Romney looks hopeless, Republicans may stay home in droves.
 
Foolmewunz said:
In other polling news - of the generic sort - RCP has moved WI and its 10 EC votes over to light blue. I'm assuming this is the way the voters of WI say "Thank you, Mitt, for calling attention to yet another of our borderline sociopaths and nominating him for Veep."

If Obama holds on in the states he's now credited with, he's at 247 and needs either FL or OH plus 1 other,... or in a really wild finish, could actually lose both OH and FL and pick-up CO, IA, NH, and VA for the win. Since it's very unlikely that Obama will lose in FL, especially after after exposing himself in Boca, I expect to see more rats deserting the sinking ship. The governor of NM, the candidates in CT and MA, old line pundits... they're all writing epitaphs.

Only the crazies are holding out. Did anyone have the pleasure of seeing Hannity interview Mad Dog Malkin (I gotta say that's a whole lot of hot in that crazy lady)? They were essentially declaring war on Peggie Noonan and the other turncoats who wrote that Mitt was dooming himself to defeat with the sort of mis-steps that came out last week. Malkin refers to herself as "The New Media" and Hannity just sits there nodding like a bobble-head doll as she dismisses the entire Old Guard of the GOP.

You go, girl!
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And sometime in the past 10 hours, RCP moved Ohio over to the "Leans Obama" column. Mitt hasn't picked up anything in months - a couple of states moved from "Leans" to "Likely", but no toss-ups have gone his way.
Obama is now showing 265 out of 270.

**ETA: Oops - didn't see that Maxpower had already posted this.



And in even worse news for Mitt, Karl Rove's map shows Likely & Leaning at 271! He was on Fox this morning talking about how Romney could still turn it around and never mentioned that he was about to fill in a few more states in blue - probably because they'll never have him back on if he says what's patently obvious to everyone who doesn't have Fox News dripped into their bodies via an I.V. feed.

ETA 2: Please note that "this morning" means the evening of Sep 25, your time in the USA. So the Rove interview was Tuesday.
 
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BenBurch said:
This may become an unexpected landslide.

Color me stunned.
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I thought his "47%" gaffe really was a big deal, and now it's starting to show in the polls. The only question is will it last.

Tricky said:
I doubt that, and I'm not in the "stick a fork in him" camp, but barring a possible-but-unlikely rapid turnaround, it looks like it will be at least comfortable. So much so that we need to wonder how long Obama's coattails are. No, I don't think many voters are going to change who they support, but if Romney looks hopeless, Republicans may stay home in droves.
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There is that old saying that "six weeks is a long time in politics". Certainly not time to start counting chickens just yet.

There's still the debates to come, but I think he really needs some kind of dramatic game changer to turn it around. If the debates are a wash, I don't know if that helps Romney.
 
Puppycow said:
There's still the debates to come, but I think he really needs some kind of dramatic game changer to turn it around. If the debates are a wash, I don't know if that helps Romney.
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Every day not spent actively turning it around is effectively a negative for Romney at this point. If he's not gaining, he's losing, as the few remaining undecideds are starting to solidify their opinions and have done with it.

But even worse for him, the polling is still moving in Obama's direction, which is almost a double negative; rather like kicking someone when they're down.

InTrade is still holding above 25% (25.2 as of this writing) but it's crashing rapidly as people start to jump ship, sell to minimize their loss, etc. Only the die-hard Romney deluded fanboys supporters will be on board now, so it's going to be hard to find _any_ Romney buyers who don't already have their money in.
 
I wouldn't call it "huge" but...

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My non-scientific gut tells me that, if he can hold his own, the first debate will result in a nice gain for Mr. Romney. He'll be rehearsed to the max, so gaffes/fumbles/Eastwoods will be next to non-existent. He'll project seriousness and confidence, laced with a dose of humor. The net result on the part of what will surely be a large audience (at least for the first meeting) will be along the lines of "Well, he's not so bad."

If enough eyes see a candidate as presidential, other impressions, especially from earlier on, will continue to fade toward irrelevence, replaced by the latest, the freshest. People have short memories, never mind many won't have been paying attention up until now and therefore haven't been overly turned off. This is where Mr. Obama (or any incumbent) is at a disadvantage: we've seen him for years now and know what he's all about. The new guy, though, gets to step into the kitchen without flour and grease and fish guts on his apron.

Team Obama should not underestimate what these debates might produce.
 
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Regnad Kcin said:
My non-scientific gut tells me that, if he can hold his own, the first debate will result in a nice gain for Mr. Romney. He'll be rehearsed to the max, so gaffes/fumbles/Eastwoods will be next to non-existent. He'll project seriousness and confidence, laced with a dose of humor. The net result on the part of what will surely be a large audience (at least for the first meeting) will be along the lines of "Well, he's not so bad."

If enough eyes see a candidate as presidential, other impressions, especially from earlier on, will continue to fade toward irrelevence, replaced by the latest, the freshest. People have short memories, never mind many won't have been paying attention up until now and therefore haven't been overly turned off. This is where Mr. Obama (or any incumbent) is at a disadvantage: we've seen him for years now and know what he's all about. The new guy, though, gets to step into the kitchen without flour and grease and fish guts on his apron.
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That's exactly what I expect. I call it the Reagan debate bump. I remember during his first debate with Carter, how gaga the media was that Reagan was able to talk about presidential stuff. His use of the term MAD was particularly impressive to them.
 
Out of curiosity, any bets on the RW excuses after a (seemingly inevitable) Obama landslide?
 
Robrob said:
Out of curiosity, any bets on the RW excuses after a (seemingly inevitable) Obama landslide?
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Well, alot of us conservatives agree that Obama will likely win the election.

As far as 'excuses', I would say the reason for the loss is the stupidity and gullibility of the electorate.
 
sir drinks-a-lot said:
Well, alot of us conservatives agree that Obama will likely win the election.

As far as 'excuses', I would say the reason for the loss is the stupidity and gullibility of the electorate.
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The same stupid and gullible electorate that you can't seem to convince of your guy's superiority?
 
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