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Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

Unabogie said:
Not the vaunted Rasmussen, but Obama is leading Romney in Wisconsin by a whopping 14 points in a new poll.
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Because he was giving an impromptu speech at a campaign stop there and said, "This is the state where they really cut the cheese!"*



*Not intended as a factual statement
 
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Tricky said:
Because he was giving an impromptu speech at a campaign stop there and said, "This is the state where they really cut the cheese!"*



*Not intended as a factual statement
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Which would only be his third biggest gaffe of the week.

Honestly, I can't even remember the last time Obama launched a tough attack against the guy. He's doing all of this damage to himself. He's like the self-immolating monk of campaigning.
 
Unabogie said:
Which would only be his third biggest gaffe of the week.

Honestly, I can't even remember the last time Obama launched a tough attack against the guy. He's doing all of this damage to himself. He's like the self-immolating monk of campaigning.
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I was thinking the very same thing. These errors are unforced.

I would like to know how many bad news cycles Romney has had since he became the presumptive nominee? It's by far most of them that's for sure.
 
Unabogie said:
Honestly, I can't even remember the last time Obama launched a tough attack against the guy. He's doing all of this damage to himself. He's like the self-immolating monk of campaigning.
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newplan.jpg
 
Update..... Yes, I.E. worked... should have tired that first I guess. Thanks everyone.

If anyone is interested, on 9-19-08 (this point in the cycle 4 years ago)....

Obama - 51.5
McCain - 47.6

Pretty close all in all.

But what is more interesting is that 9-14-08 (just a few days ago in that election cycle) was the largest lead for McCain, he was actually up 52.5 vs. 46.8. It was this week 4 years ago where McCain lost any lead and from that point forward his numbers went decidedly and significantly down hill.

By 10-1-08 Obama had climbed to a substantial lead of 64.7 and his numbers kept climbing until election day.

I don't have the overlay but I think we may be seeing something like the same trajectories between candidates in this election cycle but obviously with different actual numbers. If that is the case (I am only going by memory on the numbers from earlier in this thread so I could be wrong) and IF this election cycle ends up mirroring '08 (a big if) we may have seen the high water mark for Romney's campaign in the last week or so.... I don't know, but it could be the case.

I LOVE statistics, it's fascinating to see how things play out.
 
In other polling news - of the generic sort - RCP has moved WI and its 10 EC votes over to light blue. I'm assuming this is the way the voters of WI say "Thank you, Mitt, for calling attention to yet another of our borderline sociopaths and nominating him for Veep."

If Obama holds on in the states he's now credited with, he's at 247 and needs either FL or OH plus 1 other,... or in a really wild finish, could actually lose both OH and FL and pick-up CO, IA, NH, and VA for the win. Since it's very unlikely that Obama will lose in FL, especially after after exposing himself in Boca, I expect to see more rats deserting the sinking ship. The governor of NM, the candidates in CT and MA, old line pundits... they're all writing epitaphs.

Only the crazies are holding out. Did anyone have the pleasure of seeing Hannity interview Mad Dog Malkin (I gotta say that's a whole lot of hot in that crazy lady)? They were essentially declaring war on Peggie Noonan and the other turncoats who wrote that Mitt was dooming himself to defeat with the sort of mis-steps that came out last week. Malkin refers to herself as "The New Media" and Hannity just sits there nodding like a bobble-head doll as she dismisses the entire Old Guard of the GOP.

You go, girl!
 
Headwinds for Romney in Latest Poll Results

Mitt Romney's path to victory is narrowing, new polling data suggest, presenting challenges for the Republican nominee at a moment when he is trying to rebound from a week of bad headlines by refocusing on federal spending.

President Barack Obama has opened an eight percentage-point lead in Iowa and maintains a five-point edge in Colorado and Wisconsin, according to Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll surveys of the three presidential battlegrounds released Thursday.

The new poll results are significant in part because the Romney campaign views the three states as steppingstones to an Electoral College majority, given Mr. Romney's slippage in polls of two of the largest battlegrounds, Ohio and Virginia.
. . .
The new Journal surveys were taken just as video surfaced earlier this week of Mr. Romney telling donors that nearly half the country "sees themselves as victims" and is dependent on government.
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Still may see more movement in days to come as not everyone sees the news immediately or has time to process it.
 
538's latest is up. Seems the "bounce" may have been a "climb". Oh, and more bad news for Mr. Romney...

FTA said:
Mr. Obama continues to get very strong results in state polls that use industry-standard methodology, meaning that they use live interviews and place calls to mobile phones along with landlines.
...
But automated polls, like those from the Rasmussen Reports, have had lukewarm results for Mr. Obama. A Rasmussen Reports poll released on Thursday, for instance, put Mr. Obama three points behind in Iowa.

I don’t mean to keep repeating this point about polling methodologies, but it really does seem to be the easiest way to unpack the state-level data right now.
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From the sub-article (linked):

FTSA said:
These results are consistent with some past research. Roughly one third of American households rely solely on mobile phones and do not have landlines, meaning they will simply be excluded by polls that call landlines only. Potential voters who rely on cellphones belong to more Democratic-leaning demographic groups than those which don’t, and there is reasonably strong empirical evidence that the failure to include them in polls can bias the results against Democrats, even after demographic weightings are applied.
...
Could the exclusion of cellphones really make that much difference? This gets tricky to analyze because, as I’ve mentioned, the inclusion of cellphones also tends to correlate with other methodological characteristics, like using live interviewers rather than an automated dialer, and other industry-standard methodological practices. Thus, the usage of cellphones may be an indicator of overall poll quality, in addition to making a difference unto itself.
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In short, Rasmussen is behind the times. This would explain three things about them:

 
BenBurch said:
Noticing that the remaining RV poll seems to trail the LV polls for Obama.

Historically, it is the other way around.

Is Romney's base deserting him?
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That's the Gallup 7-day average tracking poll so it doesn't capture news from the last couple days very well. Also, Gallup has a pro-Republican house effect according to Nate Silver.
 
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