• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

Romney is now tanking over at Intrade, which brings him in line with IEM...

IEM
Obama 73.7%
Romney 27.6%

Intrade
Obama 71.1%
Romney 28.6%

I'm getting the distinct impression that the wheels are falling off of Romney's campaign.

ETA: On an interesting side note, it seems that Romney's flailing is now starting to have a negative coat-tail effect on U.S. Senate races for the Republican party. According to IEM, for the first time this election cycle, the odds are better that the Democrats will hold the U.S. Senate than not. No wonder the GOP is starting to engage in a collective freakout. Nate Silver also has a good analysis on this sudden shift of Senate races in favor of the Democrats.
 
Last edited:
BenBurch said:
Makes sense.
Click to expand...

Also, I'm on my mobile now so I'm not going to try to find it but I read somewhere that Gallup's model assumes that 78% of voters are white. In 2008 however it was 74% and in the long term that percentage has been declining. It did increase though in 2010 compared to 2008.
 
Amusing spin from the Daily Fail:

It's all about the 47%! Romney draws level with Barack Obama on 47% each. . . days after furor over Mitt's 47%

Is 47 Mitt Romney's lucky number? The Republican nominee has drawn level with President Barack Obama in the latest national Gallup poll, fuelling charges from conservatives that the media has unfairly and prematurely written off their man.

After two consecutive days in which the same poll had Romney trailing Obama by a single percentage point, Thursday's poll put the two candidates at level pegging on 47 points each.
. . .
'We always look at the tracking polls because they have been conducted since April,' said a senior Romney adviser. 'So you can compare like with like. With the others, it's hard to draw conclusions because so many factors in the polling differ.

'Our internal polling, like Gallup and Rasmussen, indicates that this is dead even right now. The media is emotionally invested in the Obama campaign and is cherry-picking data to fit the narrative they have decided on in advance. Let's just say that reports of the death of the Romney campaign have been greatly exaggerated.'
Click to expand...

:D
 
Puppycow said:
Amusing spin from the Daily Fail:

It's all about the 47%! Romney draws level with Barack Obama on 47% each. . . days after furor over Mitt's 47%

The media is emotionally invested in the Obama campaign and is cherry-picking data to fit the narrative they have decided on in advance.
Click to expand...

:D
Click to expand...
Does that include Real Clear Politics? They have Obama at +3.3

wiki said:
The site's founders say their goal is to give readers "ideological diversity".[3] They have described themselves as frustrated with what they perceive as anti-conservative, anti-Christian media bias,[4] and while Patrick Stack of Time magazine has described the commentary as conservative-leaning,
Click to expand...
 
At IEM...

Obama 75%
romney 25%

At Intrade...

Obama 70%
Romney 30%

Looks like Romney has started to "rally" at Intrade :rolleyes:
 
Today was not a good day for Romney in the latest polls.
Particularly in the state level polls, which are what really matter.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Of the state level polls released today, Romney leads in one, Montana, a very red state, by 9 points.
Obama leads by
6 in Colorado
4 in North Carolina
7 in Nevada
7 in Iowa
5 in Florida
12 in Michigan
12 in Wisconsin
8 in Pennsylvania
8 in Minnesota
 
The great state of Michigan, the Wolverine State, beloved home of President Gerald Ford, Governor George Romney, Representative Sonny Bono, and noble Americans such as Charlton Heston, proudly casts its lot with... er, this can't be right.
 
Last edited:
Puppycow said:
Today was not a good day for Romney in the latest polls.
Particularly in the state level polls, which are what really matter.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Of the state level polls released today, Romney leads in one, Montana, a very red state, by 9 points.
Obama leads by
6 in Colorado
4 in North Carolina
7 in Nevada
7 in Iowa
5 in Florida
12 in Michigan
12 in Wisconsin
8 in Pennsylvania
8 in Minnesota
Click to expand...

If this is accurate (are these aggregated polls?), then Romney is screwed. Down by 4 points in NC is a death knell for Republicans.
 
MattusMaximus said:
If this is accurate (are these aggregated polls?), then Romney is screwed. Down by 4 points in NC is a death knell for Republicans.
Click to expand...

No, these are individual polls that were released on Monday.

If you want to see the aggregate for any state, just click on RCP Electoral College Map on the left menu bar and then click on the state you want to see on the map.
 
Unabogie said:
Can Romney win without Ohio?
Click to expand...

Unlikely. See Nate Silver's analysis:

Aug. 29: So Much Depends Upon Ohio

The reason our tipping-point calculus rates Ohio so highly is because it would usually suffice to provide Mr. Obama with a winning map, even if he lost many of those other states. If you give Ohio to Mr. Obama, plus all the states where the forecast model now estimates that he has at least 75 percent chance of winning, he’s up to 265 electoral votes. That means he could win any one of Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida or North Carolina to put him over the top.

Mr. Romney is fortunate in this sense to have put Wisconsin squarely into play with his selection of Paul D. Ryan as his running mate; it gives him a few more ways to win without Ohio, although it would still be a daunting task.
Click to expand...
Now, this was from a few weeks ago, back when everyone thought that the Paul Ryan pick would help Romney win Wisconsin and the polls were closer there. Recent polls don't seem to bear that out though.

A bigger must-win for Romney is Florida:
Sept. 11: Florida a True Must-Win for Romney

Florida is mostly a state where Mr. Obama is playing offense. If he wins it, it will solve almost all of his other problems.

If Mr. Obama wins Florida, he could lose each of Virginia, Colorado and Iowa, along with Ohio, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, and either New Hampshire or Nevada, and still win the Electoral College.

From Mr. Romney’s point of view, conversely, that might seem to make Florida a must-win state. In fact, it’s possible to put some numbers around this idea.
. . .
These simulations estimate that Mr. Romney has only a 2 percent chance of winning the election if he loses Florida — even assuming that the election is very close over all. Losing its 29 electoral votes just presents too daunting a challenge for him, given his inability so far to penetrate into states like Pennsylvania that could plausibly substitute for it.

The numbers aren’t remotely that overwhelming for any other state. Mr. Romney has a 15 percent chance of winning a close election despite losing Ohio, for instance — not pleasant odds, but also far from impossible. If he lost Virginia, he’d still have a 19 percent chance of winning a close election; Colorado, a 28 percent chance; Wisconsin, a 37 percent chance, and so forth.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Puppycow said:
Some alternative analysis:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/conservatives-embrace-alternate-polling-reality

"I reject your reality and substitute my own."
Click to expand...

Well, when the right has no problem coming up with their own version of history*, one should not be surprised that they want to extend this mindset to polling...:(

(*In fact, I am looking forward to the eventual publication of The Politically Incorrect Guide to African Americans, in which it states that we actually loved slavery, and wish we were still in chains...:rolleyes:)
 
RCP has moved Ohio back into light blue, putting Obama at a 265-191 lead, with a lead in a good number of remaining toss-up states.

ETA: Correction. They currently show Obama leading in EVERY remaining toss-up state. 82 EV worth. Though some of those leads are quite slim.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom