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Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

Meanwhile, over at IEM and Intrade, Romney is dropping even further than before...

IEM
Obama 71.9%
Romney 28.8%

Intrade
Obama 66.2%
Romney 33.6%
 
MattusMaximus said:
Meanwhile, over at IEM and Intrade, Romney is dropping even further than before...

IEM
Obama 71.9%
Romney 28.8%

Intrade
Obama 66.2%
Romney 33.6%
Click to expand...

So where were IEM and Intrade around this point in the 2008 election? Does anyone know? I can't find any historical data on the the sites.
 
MattusMaximus said:
Meanwhile, over at IEM and Intrade, Romney is dropping even further than before...

IEM
Obama 71.9%
Romney 28.8%

Intrade
Obama 66.2%
Romney 33.6%
Click to expand...
Political Betting Odds

Obama -215
Romney +175

politicalbettingodds.com said:
In a slide that just won't seem to stop, the Democrats and Obama keep climbing in the odds while Romney and the GOP just keep falling. Since we updated last, both parties have held or are currently holding their national conventions signifying that we are now hitting the home stretch. In that time, Obama and the Dems have risen all the way to -215 (risk $2.15 to win $1) while the Republicans and Romney have declined to just +175 (risk $1 to win $1.75) to take the November General Election. These are new odds to win the election that we bring you from SportsBetting.ag, but please do note all the extra odds and political props they have available as well such as the odds to win the Swing States.
Click to expand...
 
More thoughts on Rasmussen, from Silver on 9/17:

538 said:
On an unrelated note, we’re starting to see more cases in which multiple versions of the same poll are published — for instance, the figures among both likely voters and registered voters, or as listed with and without “leaners” (voters who initially say they’re undecided but pick a candidate after an additional prompt from the interviewer).

Sometimes the polling firm will emphasize one or another of these numbers in its news release. (Rasmussen Reports, for instance, has begun to publish the results with leaners in its tracking poll, but has been highlighting the “without leaners” version in its write-ups.)
Click to expand...

Rasmussen! Fair, balanced, and accurate!

:dl:
 
I haven't participated in this thread, but as a follower of the conversation I have a request.

Can we please stop with the laughing dog?

That thing is just awful in so many ways.
 
not_so_new said:
So where were IEM and Intrade around this point in the 2008 election? Does anyone know? I can't find any historical data on the the sites.
Click to expand...

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/intradeTV/

I presume that info is on this page, but my browser just stalls out at "loading historical data. . . "

I'm having trouble lately w the NY Times crossword app too, so I suspect my Java is messed up (again).
 
Speaking of polls. . .

Do they all still rely on land-line phone numbers for the most part? If so, does this skew the sample? In particular, I'm wondering if it doesn't over-represent suburban/rural voters and under-represent urban or metropolitan area voters?

ETA: Tying this question back to not_so_new's question I quoted in the previous post, what about polls this time in 2008? My highly unreliable memory makes me think Obama did a bit better than what the polls were suggesting, though Intrade had him as a heavy favorite by this time.
 
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JoeTheJuggler said:
Speaking of polls. . .

Do they all still rely on land-line phone numbers for the most part? If so, does this skew the sample? In particular, I'm wondering if it doesn't over-represent suburban/rural voters and under-represent urban or metropolitan area voters?
Click to expand...

Silver comments on this in several places on his page -- his model weights pollsters that call cellphones and that use live callers more accurately than robopollers who only call landlines (Rasmussen).

ETA: In short, yes, this can skew the sample. Several robopollers have tried to get my opinion in Georgia, and I hang up the minute I hear the computer voice start in with its pitch; computers who are calling me to tell me something I care about always start off by identifying themselves with "Hello, this is Dr. ______'s office" or the like -- which is enough to let me know to actually listen to the rest. (commonly "...and this is your appointment reminder for tomorrow.")
 
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remirol said:
Silver comments on this in several places on his page -- his model weights pollsters that call cellphones and that use live callers more accurately than robopollers who only call landlines (Rasmussen).

ETA: In short, yes, this can skew the sample. Several robopollers have tried to get my opinion in Georgia, and I hang up the minute I hear the computer voice start in with its pitch; computers who are calling me to tell me something I care about always start off by identifying themselves with "Hello, this is Dr. ______'s office" or the like -- which is enough to let me know to actually listen to the rest. (commonly "...and this is your appointment reminder for tomorrow.")
Click to expand...


Thanks. Sounds reasonable to me.

When I pick up calls from 8XX numbers, if there is that pause after I say "Hello", I hang up immediately. I know sometimes actual operators have that pause as the phone call that is robo-dialed switches over to them, but I figure nothing I'm interested in should be done that way.

I'm sure the demographic difference is beginning to fade (more people across the boards are getting cell phones and fewer and fewer people everywhere have landlines), but it should still be there. Also, I'm not even sure how they handle things like cable-phone or what I use as a landline now--Magic Jack (transferred the number from my old actual landline).
 
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mikedenk said:
Oh jeez... is that emoticon rolling around in a pool of its own vomit?
Click to expand...

malicus said:
Well the tankard has what I presume is an Irish clover on it.

So.......yes.
Click to expand...
Given that the icon is laughing and the liquid on the floor is the color of beer, seems to me that the liquid was intended by the artist to be beer. Odd I know that one could spill beer after falling down laughing.
 
Not the vaunted Rasmussen, but Obama is leading Romney in Wisconsin by a whopping 14 points in a new poll.

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/poll-obama-romney-wisconsin-paul-ryan.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

President Barack Obama has opened up a 14-point lead in Wisconsin, according to a new poll.

Mitt Romney’s selection of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan solidified the Badger State as a battleground, but a successful month for Obama and continuing campaign woes for Romney have blunted the GOP’s momentum there. The Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday shows Obama leading Romney among likely Wisconsin voters, 54 percent to 40 percent.

The PollTracker Average currently shows Obama leading Romney by 6.3 points in Wisconsin, eclipsing the 50 percent threshold in the last month.
Click to expand...
 
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