Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

Besides the head-to-head against Romney, Obama's job approval rating spiked in both the Gallup poll and the Rasmussen poll.

Rasmussen went from 46% approve to 52% approve over 4 days, and Gallup shows a 50% approve to 44% disapprove, whereas it was 45% to 48% about a week ago.
 
Strong bounce

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Unabogie said:
Nate Silver does the math and says that the last two days have seen Obama +10.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...ions-may-put-obama-in-front-runners-position/

:jaw-dropp
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Um, no not exactly. He's trying to imply what the polls might reflect eventually when they are all updated after the convention. Before the convention they were dead even. The convention bounce with some of the polls reflecting this has BO up by 2.9. That will likely go higher as all of them take that data in.

Saying that Romney has "imploded" is silly. When Romney was up after the GOP convention it was just a temporary dead cat bounce. Now that BO is getting his post convention bounce, Romney has "imploded".:D
 
Neally said:
Um, no not exactly. He's trying to imply what the polls might reflect eventually when they are all updated after the convention. Before the convention they were dead even. The convention bounce with some of the polls reflecting this has BO up by 2.9. That will likely go higher as all of them take that data in.

Saying that Romney has "imploded" is silly. When Romney was up after the GOP convention it was just a temporary dead cat bounce. Now that BO is getting his post convention bounce, Romney has "imploded".:D
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From the link:

On average between the four polls, it appears that Mr. Obama must have held about an eight-point lead since Mr. Clinton’s speech in order to have gained so much ground so quickly.

This method is not perfect — the only way we would know exactly how well Mr. Obama had been doing is if the polling firms published day-by-day results, which none of them do.

But on Friday, I wrote that Mr. Obama might eventually hold about a five-point lead over Mr. Romney once the tracking polls fully rolled over to post-convention data. Now it looks like his advantage could potentially be a bit larger than that, depending on how long the bounce holds. Despite a mediocre jobs report on Friday, there were no signs in the polls that Mr. Obama’s bounce had immediately receded, as he gained further ground in the surveys that were released on Saturday.
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Neally said:
Um, no not exactly. He's trying to imply what the polls might reflect eventually when they are all updated after the convention. Before the convention they were dead even. The convention bounce with some of the polls reflecting this has BO up by 2.9. That will likely go higher as all of them take that data in.

Saying that Romney has "imploded" is silly. When Romney was up after the GOP convention it was just a temporary dead cat bounce. Now that BO is getting his post convention bounce, Romney has "imploded".:D
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Well, as you said.... Um, no not exactly.

If you really read what Nate is saying you will see that Romney's numbers were up after his convention but it was a very small bounce (dead cat if you will).

Romney was hoping for an after convention bounce that gave him the lead until the the Dem convention and when the dust settled they were in a tie.

What Romney actually got was a tie BEFORE the Dem convention...

So I agree with you, saying Romney "imploded" is silly. However it is fair to say that Romney got a much smaller bounce from his convention than he was hoping for and that could very well look like a dead cat bounce at the end of the day.
 
Romney is not imploding, but he's certainly taking the gloves off. Not that he really wore gloves to begin with. Time is getting short and the polls are going the wrong direction for him. His best chance now is a killer debating performance. From what I saw in the GOP Primary debates, he's not a master debater. Obama isn't either, for that matter, but he has a whole lot more ammo (IMO) than Romney.
 
Unabogie said:
From the link:
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Again, that "eight-point lead" is and extrapolated estimate. In fact the polls showed them even going into the Dem convention. We'll see if the current 2.9 turns into the 10 points that he says it might.
 
Where's our daily post from applecorped? Huh. I guess I'll have to do the job.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows President Obama attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

:D You're welcome.
 
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