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Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

Puppycow said:
Another poll (Reuters) came out on Sunday. It doesn't seem to be reflected in RCP or 538 yet:

Obama, Romney tied as Democrats go into convention



I think the debates will matter more than the conventions this year. I don't see the polls moving much either way due to the conventions, and in any case a "convention bounce" is a temporary phenomena that will usually go away by election day. The debates, however, are closer to the election and will be more relevant to voters on election day than the conventions.
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Yes, Obama suddenly might get tangled in coat hangers resulting in his pants falling down to reveal a vagina.

He'd probably not break even if that happened.
 
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
 
applecorped said:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
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I do love cherries. Hope you picked a good one!

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...he-simple-case-for-why-obama-is-the-favorite/

I’ve been tiptoeing around this point, because I don’t think that our forecast model ought to represent the totality of our analysis about the election.

But if you look at the right-hand column of this page, you’ll notice that our forecast has moved toward Barack Obama over the past several days. It now gives him about a three-in-four chance of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6.
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I'm going to put a date down. Sept. 27th is when Rasmussen will finally be forced by the Tidal Wave of Obvious™ to shift over to +Obama and stay there for the rest of the election. (Alternately phrased, Sept. 26th is the last day Rasmussen will report +Romney.)

I will, of course, expect my million :D
 
Over at IEM, it looks like Romney is getting destroyed...

WTA
Obama 67.5%
Romney 32.7%

This is also reflected in a similar post-GOP convention shift at Intrade, where President Obama has a lead of about 18% in WTA on Romney. The shift at Intrade isn't as severe as that at IEM, but the trends are the same.

Also, Nate Silver has Florida looking more and more likely to turn blue, with a 62.6% chance of going for Obama. So much for Tampa helping Romney.
 
MattusMaximus said:
Over at IEM, it looks like Romney is getting destroyed...

WTA
Obama 67.5%
Romney 32.7%

This is also reflected in a similar post-GOP convention shift at Intrade, where President Obama has a lead of about 18% in WTA on Romney. The shift at Intrade isn't as severe as that at IEM, but the trends are the same.

Also, Nate Silver has Florida looking more and more likely to turn blue, with a 62.6% chance of going for Obama. So much for Tampa helping Romney.
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As President Clinton put it so ably last night, a huge percentage of Medicaid goes to help seniors pay for nursing homes. The Romney plan for gutting Medicaid will mean that not only the seniors in nursing homes will lose their government aid (Medicaid only kicks in when you deplete all your savings and assets to $3000), but that the families of those seniors will suddenly have to foot the bill for their parents, which will jeopardize their own savings. Ever since the US moved from pensions to 401ks, people are responsible for saving huge amounts of money for their retirement. If you parents start to drain your funds at the exact moment you need to be saving the most money, you're screwed.

So I would certainly hope that seniors in Florida will rightly reject such of horrible, horrible idea.
 
Breaking: Gallup Reports Major DNC 'Bounce' for Obama

UPDATE New Reuters-Ipsos poll tonight joined Gallup in finding an Obama bump from the DNC. It had not seen much before, but today revealed a 2 percent spike for Obama, and a 1 percent decline for Romney, along with some favorable metrics for the president, up about 4 percent. Obama now leads there 46 percent–44 percent. They suggest there could be more gains tomorrow.

Earlier:

Gallup, as usual, posted its latest poll findings at 1 pm—and found a big bounce for Obama from this year’s convention, adding to yesterday’s indication. They show a very strong one-day 3 percent hike in his approval rating to 52 percent—his highest mark in many months. This means that he gained a whopping 7 percent in just the past three days.
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Yep, President Obama's post-convention bounce looks to be the real thing; at least, it is more "real" than Romney's bounce. Nate Silver has a thorough analysis here.
 
rcph.jpg
 
applecorped said:
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2012/05/rasmussen-romney-up-seven-over-obama

"Romney is now up 50% - 43% on Obama in a survey of likely voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports.
The result was the first time Romney hit 50% in the daily tracking poll, which randomly surveys 500 voters each night.
The bad showing for Obama comes amid a week of disappointing economic indicators, including a poor jobs report. Only 37% of those surveyed believed Obama was doing a good job handling the economy while 48% said he was doing poorly."


Maybe Obama will get a Gay Marriage bounce?:confused:
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Hah, hah, *********** hah. Apparently, most Americans aren't rotten to the core.
 
McCain had a 2.4 edge over BO 4 years ago today. If neither does anything majorly stupid, it may all ride on their performance in the debates next month.
 
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