2012 Electoral College Predictions

[JoeTheJuggler]

Worse news for Romney, however, is what my arbitrary cut-off line at 75% for a "lock" doesn't show:

Ohio (18 votes) currently predicted at 69.5% for Obama
Wisconsin (10) at 70.4% for Obama
Virginia (13) at 63.3% for Obama
Iowa (6) at 63.5% for Obama
New Hampshire (4) at 74.2% for Obama

So even if we only count Obama as winning states he's polling at 65% or better (the 243 votes from states where Obama polls at 75% or better plus Ohio, Wisconsin and NH), he's got 275 Electoral College votes.

Yep, at the very least, a Romney win is an extreme long short --barring a major Obama scandal.

Those of you predicting a Romney win, do you disagree with Remirol's numbers? If not, which states do you see careening wildly toward Romney in the next two and a half months?

ETA: Best I can tell, Remirol's numbers are the only ones based on polls and not pulled out of thin air.

 

[NotJesus]

I can't see Romney winning without a major Obama screwup or a serious worsening of the economy. Romney already has the "anyone but Obama" people in his column. So the only way to improve his numbers is to convince people that he's really the man, and I just don't see how he does that. He's not a dynamic personality and he doesn't have an overriding issue that's going to rally people to his cause. Frankly, he's a weak candidate and he's only in this race because the rest of the Republicans who ran this time were even weaker.

 

[NotJesus]

ETA: Best I can tell, Remirol's numbers are the only ones based on polls and not pulled out of thin air.

My thinking is similar to Remirol's except I pulled Iowa out of thin air and gave it to Obama.

 

[thaiboxerken]

I predict that the GOP will find some way for the election to be decided by SCOTUS, and thus Romney will be appointed the to position by Alito.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

2nd) The state with the narrowest margin of victory (# of votes, not %).

Maybe one of the less populous states will be closer in absolute terms (though I think all of them will go solidly to Romney), but Missouri will be very close. It went to McCain in '08 by just 3632 votes. (FWIW, Nader got nearly 18,000 votes--significantly more than McCain's margin of victory. Even the Libertarian candidate got over 11,000 votes.)

Missouri is currently polling about 50% to 43% in Romney's favor, but I expect there will be a reverse coattail effect from the Akin incident.

And I predict turnout here will be lower because "not-Obama" isn't a strong motivator. . .nor is the whole issue of rape. It's sort of difficult to rally 'round those kinds of issues and turn out the vote. So the lower overall numbers will make the margin of victory smaller (in absolute votes).

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Those of you predicting a Romney win, do you disagree with Remirol's numbers? If not, which states do you see careening wildly toward Romney in the next two and a half months?

Correction and clarification: which of these states do you see swinging at least 15% toward Romney or away from Obama in the next two months and 5 days?

(August sort of got away from me. It doesn't feel as if it's already almost over to me.)

Or do you reject the numbers Remirol cited?

 

[mikedenk]

Correction and clarification: which of these states do you see swinging at least 15% toward Romney or away from Obama in the next two months and 5 days?

(August sort of got away from me. It doesn't feel as if it's already almost over to me.)

Or do you reject the numbers Remirol cited?

I though Remirol gave a very good overall analysis. Republican nominees nowadays have to really thread the needle to reach 270.

Personally, I agree with the prognosticators who feel that independents/swing voters will break hard towards Romney at the end. IMHO, there are a lot of people out there who don't pay any attention to politics until right up to election day, then pull the lever based on the oldies but goodies: "Is the country headed in right direction?" and "Am I better off now than 4 years ago?" Polling on these questions shows a strong "no" for both. The question is, will voters hold Obama responsible or agree with him that the Republican House has caused the problems by obstructing his agenda? My guess on this question is reflected in my EC prediction in the OP.

Specifically regarding the 5 states you brought up (OH, WI, VA, IA, NH), I have New Hampshire and Virginia going to Obama. I think Iowa will return to a razor thin margin like it was in 2000 and 2004. They have not had the demographic changes of, say, New Mexico and I think their 2008 result was fluky. I put Wisconsin in a similar category. Republicans have had success there recently, the demographics have been relatively stable, and although they have gone Democratic for quite a while, the 2000 and 2004 results were extremely close. The ground game still in place from the recall elections + Paul Ryan could put them over the edge.

That leaves Ohio. Romney's biggest target is of course Florida, but Ohio is right up there. A loss in Ohio would probably require him to pull off a stunner in a place like Pennsylvania or Michigan... and if he loses Ohio, it almost certainly means he lost decisively in both of those states. Current polls have the state in a tight race. As with Ohio and Wisconsin, my guess is that the late break towards Romney will give him the state.

ETA: It really wouldn't take a radical shift for some of these states to go for Romney. For instance, Remirol had both WI and OH at about a 70% probability of going to Obama. The polls in both of those states are actually quite close - the latest RCP average puts Obama up about a point-and-a-half in both.

 

[thaiboxerken]

I think the only reason it will be close is because of the voter suppression laws and voter purging that is going on in the swing states.

 

[mikedenk]

Maybe one of the less populous states will be closer in absolute terms (though I think all of them will go solidly to Romney), but Missouri will be very close. It went to McCain in '08 by just 3632 votes. (FWIW, Nader got nearly 18,000 votes--significantly more than McCain's margin of victory. Even the Libertarian candidate got over 11,000 votes.)

Missouri is currently polling about 50% to 43% in Romney's favor, but I expect there will be a reverse coattail effect from the Akin incident.

Can you imagine the complete Republican melt-down if MO provided the margin of victory for Obama? Akin would be the most hated man in America, if he's not already. I'm usually pretty calm, but that selfish cretin makes me angry every time I think about him.

On the plus side, a political disaster of that magnitude may be what it takes for the Republican party to give the Christian Right the old heave-ho.

 

[BenBurch]

Can you imagine the complete Republican melt-down if MO provided the margin of victory for Obama? Akin would be the most hated man in America, if he's not already. I'm usually pretty calm, but that selfish cretin makes me angry every time I think about him.

On the plus side, a political disaster of that magnitude may be what it takes for the Republican party to give the Christian Right the old heave-ho.

I would laugh for hours.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Can you imagine the complete Republican melt-down if MO provided the margin of victory for Obama?

I wouldn't characterize it that way. Missouri is the quintessential border state. Roughly 50% of the population lives in the St. Louis and KC metropolitan areas, and votes as a blue state, while the other half lives "out state" and votes as a red state.

Prior to '08, Missouri went to the election winner in 13 presidential elections in a row. (That means better than half a century of going with the overall winner--hardly what I would think as a solid Republican state.)

 

[MattusMaximus]

I predict that the GOP will find some way for the election to be decided by SCOTUS, and thus Romney will be appointed the to position by Alito.

Care to elaborate on that?

Otherwise, the CT subforum is that-a-way ==>

 

[MattusMaximus]

Personal opinion (Ben can speak for himself here too, especially if what he means isn't what I mean) is that simply put, the states which Obama has already locked up count for so many votes that Romney will have to pull a miracle in the tossup states in order to win. ...

An excellent analysis, remirol. If you want to see a very good breakdown, complete with aggregated polls and whatnot, I highly suggest Nate Silver's work over at FiveThirtyEight.com (Doh! That's where remirol got his/her analysis )

Personally, I'm going with Silver's analysis:

Electoral College
Obama: ~300
Romney: ~238

Popular Vote: Meh. The EC is what's important.

Incidentally, pretty much every site I look at with an EC breakdown shows the same thing as remirol pointed out. Obama has many more locked-in EC votes, and he needs to win only about 1/4 of the tossup states. Those facts make the odds pretty long for a Romney win.

 

[MattusMaximus]

I think the only reason it will be close is because of the voter suppression laws and voter purging that is going on in the swing states.

If this is something which concerns you so much, spread this link around:

http://gottavote.com

That website has got all the information anyone could possibly need for registering to vote, voting deadlines, voting early, or what kinds of ID and other laws might be in your state.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

It really wouldn't take a radical shift for some of these states to go for Romney. For instance, Remirol had both WI and OH at about a 70% probability of going to Obama. The polls in both of those states are actually quite close - the latest RCP average puts Obama up about a point-and-a-half in both.

So you reject Remirol's numbers.

OK, back to Remirol. Where did you get your numbers for WI and OH?

RCP does indeed show Ohio at a tie and Wisconsin with Obama at 49% to Romney's 47%, nowhere near the figures you cited.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Can you imagine the complete Republican melt-down if MO provided the margin of victory for Obama? Akin would be the most hated man in America, if he's not already. I'm usually pretty calm, but that selfish cretin makes me angry every time I think about him.

On the plus side, a political disaster of that magnitude may be what it takes for the Republican party to give the Christian Right the old heave-ho.

We can only hope the GOP kicks the religious right kooks out of its upper echelons. But I'm not holding my breath.

 

[thaiboxerken]

If this is something which concerns you so much, spread this link around:

http://gottavote.com

That website has got all the information anyone could possibly need for registering to vote, voting deadlines, voting early, or what kinds of ID and other laws might be in your state.

Right, because this will eliminate the millions of voters effected by such laws and efforts......

 

[mikedenk]

I wouldn't characterize it that way. Missouri is the quintessential border state. Roughly 50% of the population lives in the St. Louis and KC metropolitan areas, and votes as a blue state, while the other half lives "out state" and votes as a red state.

Prior to '08, Missouri went to the election winner in 13 presidential elections in a row. (That means better than half a century of going with the overall winner--hardly what I would think as a solid Republican state.)

It's certainly quite possible that MO goes for Obama, and that was true even prior to the Akin blowup.

But I'll throw out this strictly amateur analysis: if the race were so close that MO was the decider, it would mean that Romney performed well nationwide. He would've won all the states that he was supposed to win plus most of the toss-ups. If my memory serves me, MO was considered a "lean Republican" for this election prior to the Akin incident (Akin himself was also leading in the polls), so in the above scenario it would've been expected to go for Romney.

Throw in the fact that Romney's polling lead in the state has evaporated and/or been reversed since the Akin incident, and you have the makings of an epic scapegoat.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

But I'll throw out this strictly amateur analysis: if the race were so close that MO was the decider, it would mean that Romney performed well nationwide. He would've won all the states that he was supposed to win plus most of the toss-ups. If my memory serves me, MO was considered a "lean Republican" for this election prior to the Akin incident (Akin himself was also leading in the polls), so in the above scenario it would've been expected to go for Romney.

I agree that MO won't likely matter to the election. I was merely tossing it out as a likely answer to your request for predictions number 2. MO held that title in '08, and is a good candidate for it this time around as well.

However, since it is such a very close state, I don't think it would require a complete GOP meltdown for MO to go to Obama. I think it would depend most on a rainy Election Day and a somewhat low turnout in rural counties.

 

[remirol]

So you reject Remirol's numbers.

OK, back to Remirol. Where did you get your numbers for WI and OH?

RCP does indeed show Ohio at a tie and Wisconsin with Obama at 49% to Romney's 47%, nowhere near the figures you cited.

Everything was taken from FiveThirtyEight's figures on the day of posting. The popular vote split today in each of those from there is:

Ohio: 50.5 - 48.0, Obama (prediction: 68% Obama win)
Wisc: 51.2 - 47.9, Obama (prediction: 72% Obama win)

So Ohio has slid down slightly, and Wisconsin has slid up slightly. There will be a great deal of "slight" movement, but at the moment 538's model has a significant quantity of data to work with and I generally consider it more reliable than RCP, which is only a current-poll aggregator.

All the percentages I listed (except where specifically called out as popular vote) are 538's predicted "chance of victory in this state". I use that because, again, it's part of a model that has a number of things factored in already (state of the economy, etc.) and because I think it's more indicative than popular vote percentiles: see above, for example, where a 2.5 point advantage correlates to 68% chance of victory, while a 3.3 point advantage doesn't correlate to a significant increase.

Without drilling into Nate's figures more than I have (and probably more than he makes readily available, of course) I wouldn't know why Ohio is rated as 'harder to move' for Romney, though historical polling this election cycle might be a good indicator, as well as a possible Ryan effect for Wisconsin specifically.