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Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting 49% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
 
On the same day in 2008, Obama led Republican nominee John McCain by 5 points — 49 to 44 percent — in Rasmussen's daily tracking.

​
 
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...state-polls-national-polls-and-likely-voters/

Interesting discussion here on the odd behavior of likely voter models this time out; They usually show worse results for Democrats because leading Democrats is like herding cats, and they do not automatically go out to vote.

That we are seeing the opposite says to me that we rate seeing massive disaffection on the GOPer side of the equation.* If the "base" GOPers are not planning to vote, this could have huge electoral coattails.

Not sure that coattails is the right word here as Obama isn't dragging other Democrats along, Romney has pushed aside his voters.


ETA: * Because we absolutely do not have a hyper-enthusiastic Democratic base, this is dead normal from my perspective.
 
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This has not gone down the way I believed it would.

Romney and his surrogates are spending on media like a drunken sailor at a brothel, but it's not working.

The 538 model keeps showing an improving chance of an Obama win, and today he reviewed other models and with two exceptions they show Obama with a decided electoral advantage.

Structurally it is interesting. Obama looks to get a tiny majority of the popular vote but still to get a fairly skewed electoral vote count.

The only way that can happen is if Romney's message is being heard only by the choir.

That is, red state are uselessly getting more red. Romney doesn't need to gain anything there because once you have more than 50% you have the state.

Whereas the Democratic majority is spread out in enough states to push them over the bar for Obama. Some of these states are what I call "Purple" states; Neither strongly Democratic nor strongly Republican.

The Purple states are moving very slowly to the left both now and over the course of time.

And I think we have a phenomenon here where "birds of a feather" are congregating.

Red voters are moving to red states.

And anecdotally, I have heard a number of people express the sentiment that they cannot stand living around "liberals" and so moved to where they were free of them.

So, I think we have a case where the demonization of liberals by nearly every media pundit has had a paradoxical effect. It has convinced the declining demographic of GOP voters to ALSO move to places where their votes do not aid the GOP one iota.
 
Wowzers!

rcp3.jpg


Not exactly moving in Romney's direction.
 
BenBurch said:
It is very weird that FOX News' poll has been so skewed towards Obama this time around.

I think that and the Pew polls are outliers.
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Yes, I agree. I think those are skewing the results I have to concede.
 
It also looks like independents are starting to swing more in President Obama's direction...

National Polls Show Clear Advantage for Obama Among Independents
In the all-important struggle for independent voters, President Obama is opening some daylight over his Republican rival.

That is the message of two national polls released on Thursday. The polls show a clear advantage for the president over Mitt Romney after several difficult weeks for Mr. Romney, which included harsh attack advertisements, unfavorable publicity from a foreign trip and pressure to reveal more of his tax returns. ...
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This probably explains why so many swing states are favorable to President Obama. Rough going for Romney...
 
BenBurch said:
This has not gone down the way I believed it would.

Romney and his surrogates are spending on media like a drunken sailor at a brothel, but it's not working.

The 538 model keeps showing an improving chance of an Obama win, and today he reviewed other models and with two exceptions they show Obama with a decided electoral advantage.

Structurally it is interesting. Obama looks to get a tiny majority of the popular vote but still to get a fairly skewed electoral vote count.

The only way that can happen is if Romney's message is being heard only by the choir.

That is, red state are uselessly getting more red. Romney doesn't need to gain anything there because once you have more than 50% you have the state.

Whereas the Democratic majority is spread out in enough states to push them over the bar for Obama. Some of these states are what I call "Purple" states; Neither strongly Democratic nor strongly Republican.

The Purple states are moving very slowly to the left both now and over the course of time.

And I think we have a phenomenon here where "birds of a feather" are congregating.

Red voters are moving to red states.

And anecdotally, I have heard a number of people express the sentiment that they cannot stand living around "liberals" and so moved to where they were free of them.

So, I think we have a case where the demonization of liberals by nearly every media pundit has had a paradoxical effect. It has convinced the declining demographic of GOP voters to ALSO move to places where their votes do not aid the GOP one iota.
Click to expand...

Very interesting indeed. In this sense, the hardest of the hard core right-wingers could be their own worst enemies.
 
Looking at the graph on RCP, it would appear to me that this all started going bad for Romney about the time he insulted the Olympic Games. (Yes, he insulted the British; But the MESSAGE people got was that he insulted the games themselves. I heard two people talking in line the other day and they were talking Olympics. One said 'I guess that the athletes paid no attention to Romney's insult.' )
 
The prediction markets at IEM and Intrade have the WTA odds for Romney going down all day today. At both markets the WTA gap is 20% in favor of President Obama. Seems that people betting money on the election think the Ryan pick wasn't a good decision.
 
Nate Silver has a good analysis of the Ryan VP pick and how it will have little effect on the chances of Wisconsin going to Romney...

Aug. 11: Will Ryan Pick Move the Polls?
... Adding two points to Mr. Romney’s figures in Wisconsin makes him more likely to win the state, of course, although he remains the underdog there: the model now projects Mr. Romney to lose the it by 5.2 percentage points. Still, his chances of pulling off a win in Wisconsin improved to 20 percent in the forecast, from just 12 percent on Friday. ...
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I will be interested to see how the VP pick impacts these polls. It's wall to wall Romney/Ryan coverage now.

CNN thinks them making campaign stops is "Breaking News".

If the post 8/11 polls don't show a significant spike for Romney, I'll be surprised.
 
DavidJames said:
If the post 8/11 polls don't show a significant spike for Romney, I'll be surprised.
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Typically there is a bounce for the candidate when they make the VP announcement.

I suspect, however, that the bounce won't be as high as the Romney campaign is hoping for.
 
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