Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

[applecorped]

Well, I guess that about wraps it up. Anything else would be off topic.

/thread

Actually, the thread will probably end after the election.

 

[Upchurch]

Actually, the thread will probably end after the election.

I can't really comment without going off topic. I'm not allowed to refute those numbers, correct? Those are gospel in this thread, right?

 

[applecorped]

I can't really comment without going off topic. I'm not allowed to refute those numbers, correct? Those are gospel in this thread, right?

You can do as you please and think what you like.

 

[applecorped]

New Rasmussen Reports polling finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters who have served in the military favor the Republican challenger, while 35% support the president. Five percent (5%) of these voters like some other candidate in the race, but only two percent (2%) are undecided.

 

[Upchurch]

You can do as you please and think what you like.

Well, last time you complained that refuting those numbers with other data was off topic. As we all know, this forum is all about considering only a single source and not questioning the validity of that source with more data.

So may we discuss sources other than Rasmussen or not?

 

[applecorped]

I don't own this thread. Why are you asking my permission? The thread is about Rasmussen's reporting on the upcoming election. Do you agree/disagree with the numbers reported by them? Do you not like how they conduct their polling? Do other sites do a better job? I'm sure you can stay on topic and still get your point across.

 

[Upchurch]

I don't own this thread. Why are you asking my permission? The thread is about Rasmussen's reporting on the upcoming election. Do you agree/disagree with the numbers reported by them? Do you not like how they conduct their polling? Do other sites do a better job? I'm sure you can stay on topic and still get your point across.

You were the one that declared other polls off topic, as if threads don't evolve over time. I do disagree with the numbers because, both historically and in aggregate for the current race, Rasmussen hasn't proven to very accurate. That has been shown by the posts you complain are off topic.

Would you care to defend your reliance solely on Rasmussen?

 

[Montag451]

Would you care to defend your reliance solely on Rasmussen?

That would be confirmation bias

 

[BenBurch]

From; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

ETA: Some fairly old polls here as polling activity is slower mid-summer. Mostly because people are just not at home and answering polling calls.

ETA2: Rasmussen, Rasmussen, Rasmussen. Happy now?

 

[MattusMaximus]

Say ten "Hail Rasmussens" and your sins shall be forgiven

 

[Upchurch]

Say ten "Hail Rasmussens" and your sins shall be forgiven

As with most of my sins, I prefer to stick to reality rather than repenting and retreating back into illusion.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Since so many here want to talk about Rasmussen Reports, let's talk about them... about how biased an outfit they are:

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly

... On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates. ...

 

[MattusMaximus]

Latest from IEM
Obama WTA 59.4%
Romney WTA 41.0%

And Intrade
Obama 58.8%
Romney 39.0%

Oh, and of course, I must beg forgiveness:
Rasmussen, Rasmussen, Rasmussen, Rasmussen, Rasmussen, Rasmussen, Rasmussen, Rasmussen, Rasmussen, Rasmussen

 

[Corsair 115]

Say ten "Hail Rasmussens" and your sins shall be forgiven

Just don't do that in front of a mirror. Because if you do a horrible monster will be conjured into existence and will devour you!

As with most of my sins, I prefer to stick to reality rather than repenting and retreating back into illusion.

Er, this is the American politics section. I thought reality had been banished from it ages ago.

 

[Upchurch]

Er, this is the American politics section. I thought reality had been banished from it ages ago.

Normally, yes. This time, however, we're talking about data analysis.

 

[MaGZ]

Wow, things are getting worse for Romney at both IEM and Intrade...

IEM
Obama WTA 59.5%
Romney WTA 41.5%

Meanwhile, at Intrade
Obama 59.5%
Romney 38.7%

So now President Obama has opened up a lead of roughly 20% in the prediction markets. That's up from about 5% just a couple of weeks ago.

Rough going ahead for Romney.

Don't place any bets in Las Vegas.

 

[BenBurch]

From; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

 

[Puppycow]

I remember earlier this year when I mentioned a poll somebody would inevitably point out that "polls this far out are meaningless". But the polls (averaged) have hardly changed at all in months it seems. The race has been close since even before Romney had the nomination locked up and there's been no significant movement in either direction, despite whatever the story of the week is. I wonder if the poll numbers we've been seeing for months will still be the poll numbers we're seeing in October?

Nate Silver remarks:
July 24: The Incredibly Steady Presidential Race

We’ve now been running our presidential forecast model for almost two months, but very little has changed in our analysis of the race. Each day, we have shown Barack Obama as a modest favorite to win re-election. At no point has projected margin of victory in the popular vote been smaller than 1.7 percentage points, or larger than 2.7 percentage points; it was 2.3 percentage points as of Tuesday evening’s forecast.

The “now-cast” — our estimate of what would happen if the election were held today, rather than on Nov. 6 — has been only slightly more volatile. Mr. Obama has led in each now-cast as well, but by margins ranging from 0.9 points (on June 21) to 2.9 points (on July 21). As of Tuesday, the now-cast gave Mr. Obama a 2.6 point lead.

 

[jnelso99]

You need to focus on the polls in swing states rather than national polls.

 

[Upchurch]

You need to focus on the polls in swing states rather than national polls.

The aggregate takes those into account.