David Wong
Graduate Poster
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2006
- Messages
- 1,773
...over the long term?
I started doing research on the effectiveness of various diet plans five or more years down the road (for a Cracked article) and what I found floored me. The studies boasting of long-term success of structured diets are talking about incredibly modest weight losses:
http://www.ajcn.org/content/74/5/579.full
We're talking about a permanent loss of 15 pounds is regarded as a raving success. So congratulations, you were 300 pounds, now you're 285. The average weight loss of the 3,500 participants who saw success from structured weight loss programs was 3%... so our 300 pounder would be all the way down to... 291.
It's the same for this article, raving about the success of Weight Watchers:
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-204_162-620201.html
Dig into the numbers and they're talking about how great it is that so many people were able to keep off 5% of their weight.
So when you go and try to actually find the real "fat to thin" success stories, the "before and after" diet product commercial photo guy who weighed 300 and got down to 160, the "Jared from Subway" weight loss, and they're so rare as to fall into the realm of medical miracles of the "surviving an inoperable brain tumor" category.
This blogger tried to do the math and figured that 2 out of 1,000 Weight Watchers qualifies:
http://fatfu.wordpress.com/2008/01/24/weight-watchers/
I fully realize that person is just doing back-of-the-envelope calculations (WW is very careful to make sure you never, ever, ever see the true stats on what percentage of customers are successful over the long term) but to be honest, I can't find any study on people who have actually permanently beaten obesity. And I'm starting to think that the ones who do are simply freak stories, like the guy told he has six months to live but who survives 20 years. Here's a nice article that breaks down why the body makes it all but impossible:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/magazine/tara-parker-pope-fat-trap.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all
Has any study ever shown anything else? If so, I can't find it.
Yet, if you say this on a message board, the replies usually fill up with useless anecdotes ("My brother lost 75 pounds just by cutting out the junk food!") or personal judgments of the obese ("If they'd just get off their lazy butts and run a little bit they'd lose the weight in no time!") or personal incredulity ("I refuse to believe it's incurable when you can simply STOP EATING!"). But as far as I can see, the data makes it clear: obesity is effectively incurable, perhaps with the exception of surgical options.
Can anyone point me to a study that says I'm wrong?
I started doing research on the effectiveness of various diet plans five or more years down the road (for a Cracked article) and what I found floored me. The studies boasting of long-term success of structured diets are talking about incredibly modest weight losses:
http://www.ajcn.org/content/74/5/579.full
We're talking about a permanent loss of 15 pounds is regarded as a raving success. So congratulations, you were 300 pounds, now you're 285. The average weight loss of the 3,500 participants who saw success from structured weight loss programs was 3%... so our 300 pounder would be all the way down to... 291.
It's the same for this article, raving about the success of Weight Watchers:
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-204_162-620201.html
Dig into the numbers and they're talking about how great it is that so many people were able to keep off 5% of their weight.
So when you go and try to actually find the real "fat to thin" success stories, the "before and after" diet product commercial photo guy who weighed 300 and got down to 160, the "Jared from Subway" weight loss, and they're so rare as to fall into the realm of medical miracles of the "surviving an inoperable brain tumor" category.
This blogger tried to do the math and figured that 2 out of 1,000 Weight Watchers qualifies:
http://fatfu.wordpress.com/2008/01/24/weight-watchers/
I fully realize that person is just doing back-of-the-envelope calculations (WW is very careful to make sure you never, ever, ever see the true stats on what percentage of customers are successful over the long term) but to be honest, I can't find any study on people who have actually permanently beaten obesity. And I'm starting to think that the ones who do are simply freak stories, like the guy told he has six months to live but who survives 20 years. Here's a nice article that breaks down why the body makes it all but impossible:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/magazine/tara-parker-pope-fat-trap.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all
Has any study ever shown anything else? If so, I can't find it.
Yet, if you say this on a message board, the replies usually fill up with useless anecdotes ("My brother lost 75 pounds just by cutting out the junk food!") or personal judgments of the obese ("If they'd just get off their lazy butts and run a little bit they'd lose the weight in no time!") or personal incredulity ("I refuse to believe it's incurable when you can simply STOP EATING!"). But as far as I can see, the data makes it clear: obesity is effectively incurable, perhaps with the exception of surgical options.
Can anyone point me to a study that says I'm wrong?