Moderated Global Warming Discussion

[Furcifer]

eerem Forests and Concrete are pretty close to eachother in regard to albedo.

No they aren't. It depends mostly on the colour of the aggregate and the finish. Cement itself has a much higher albedo than a typical forest would during summer. But that's in the visible spectrum.
This is a common mistake however, people think you cut down a dark green forest and put up a white concrete building and the albedo goes up. Unfortunately it's not that simple. What we're talking about when we say albedo is really the process and the result of the change to it and not simply a dimensionless number.

 

[Megalodon]

No. Please show the TSI data that shows "The fact the sun has been extremely active recently". Everything I see shows it's climbing, but far from the normal peak activity, much less "extremely active".

 

[Mikemcc]

No they aren't. It depends mostly on the colour of the aggregate and the finish. Cement itself has a much higher albedo than a typical forest would during summer. But that's in the visible spectrum.
This is a common mistake however, people think you cut down a dark green forest and put up a white concrete building and the albedo goes up. Unfortunately it's not that simple. What we're talking about when we say albedo is really the process and the result of the change to it and not simply a dimensionless number.

The massive albedo change due to urbanisation? In the UK less than 2% of the area of the country is built on, it will be significantly less in the US.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18623096

 

[lomiller]

No they aren't. It depends mostly on the colour of the aggregate and the finish. Cement itself has a much higher albedo than a typical forest would during summer. But that's in the visible spectrum.

The visible spectrum contains most of the Suns energy output. (which is why eyes evolved to see in the visible spectrum to begin with)

 

[CapelDodger]

People don't understand what is going on. A 1 degree average increase, say, means a 70 degree day is now 71. An 80 degree day is now 81.

You might have a small amount of increased storms, but not some kind of holy hellmouth releasing all over the Earth.

I'm afraid you don't understand what is going to go on. There isn't a simple dichotomy between no significant change and a "holy hellmouth"; what you're going to see is a world increasingly out-of-line with our built environment and population distributions (where "built environment" includes agriculture).

Storms are becoming more energetic, which is what was expected. How their number will be affected is not known, but that extra energy and the extra water up there is already making an impression on people. Not on you yet, clearly, but on a lot of people.

 

[Haig]

Project Astrometria: Global Cooling until 2100?

Read the article here: http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html

A very interesting Russian solar science project. Basically it is about accurate measurement of the Sun's diameter and to investigate the deep inner of the Sun. The minute change in the Sun's diameter has a very direct influence on the climate in the whole solar system.

Measuring the Sun's diameter and thereby the change in surface that can radiate energy to Earth and the rest of the solar system, give us a significant pointer to the TSI Total Solar Irradiance, which again, directly and indirectly changes the global temperature.

Comparing historic TSI and future extrapolation, a very close fit appears between the TSI and the global temperature records.

Even more interesting is the very plausible extrapolation until year 2100, another LIA or worse?

With constantly failing IPCC hind-casts and forecasts this appears the more accurate future for Earth’s climate, any deniers?

So how should we prepare for ourselves for climate change that is not our fault and will cool the globe for decades?

.


This year Abdussamatov has had another paper published and I'm posting a little of it here in support of the above OP. Events seem to be going his way?

Bicentennial Decrease of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to
Unbalanced Thermal Budget of the Earth and the Little Ice Age
Habibullo I. Abdussamatov Published: February 1, 2012

Since the Sun is now approaching the phase of decrease of bicentennial luminosity on the basis of observed accelerating drop in both the 11-year and bicentennial components of TSI from early 90s, we can forecast its further decline similar to a so called Maunder minimum down to 1363.4±0.8 W/m2, 1361.0±1.6 W/m2 and down to a deep minimal level 1359.5±2.4 W/m2 in the minima between the cycles 24/25, 25/26 and 26/27, respectively (Fig. 3). Assuming an expected increase in the duration of the eleven-year cycles during the phase of decline of a bicentennial cycle (Abdussamatov, 2006, 2009a,b), we can expect the approximate moment of minimum between the cycles 24/25, 25/26 and 26/27 in 2020.3±0.6, 2031.6±1.2 and 2042.9±1.8, respectively. Under these circumstances the maximal smoothed for 13 months level of sunspot number in the cycles 24, 25 and 26 can reach 65±15, 45±20 and 30±20, respectively (Abdussamatov, 2007b, 2009a,b). Hence, we can expect the onset of a deep bicentennial minimum of TSI in approximately 2042±11 and of the 19th deep minimum of global temperature in the past 7500 years – in 2055±11 (Fig. 4). In the nearest future we will observe a transition (between global warming and global cooling) period of unstable climate changes with the global temperature fluctuating around its maximum value reached in 1998-2005. After the maximum of solar cycle 24, from approximately 2014 we can expect the start of the next bicentennial cycle of deep cooling with a Little Ice Age in 2055±11. Thus, long-term variations of TSI (with account for their direct and secondary, based on feedback effects, influence) are the main fundamental cause of climate changes since variations of the Earth climate is mainly determined by a long-term imbalance between the energy of solar radiation entering the upper layers of the Earth's atmosphere and the total energy emitted from the Earth back to space.

http://journal.ccsenet.org/index.php/apr/article/view/14754
http://journal.ccsenet.org/index.php/apr/article/view/14754/10140

 

[Haig]

The Sun has changed its character

With now less than a year to solar maximum in 2013, the Ap Index is now projected to trail off to a new low next decade

Solheim, Stordahl and Humlum in their paper entitled “The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24” available at: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/02/the-sun-has-changed-its-character/

 

[Reality Check]

.This year Abdussamatov has had another paper published and I'm posting a little of it here in support of the above OP. Events seem to be going his way?
...

No because he is ignorant of the science that global warming has been disconnected from the Sun for over 30 years and that it is CO2 that is the primary driver of climate change now: Solar activity & climate: is the sun causing global warming?

The OP shows ignorance of basic climate science.

ETA: Are we heading into a new Ice Age?

The warming effect from more CO2 greatly outstrips the influence from changes in the Earth's orbit or solar activity, even if solar levels were to drop to Maunder Minimum levels

ETA2: He published this paper in a non-climate science journal (Applied Physics Research)!

 

[Reality Check]

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/02/the-sun-has-changed-its-character/

Wow - The author of this Watts UpWithThat article thinks that Norway and in the North Atlantic region are the entire world and ompares these local results with global cloud cover!

FYI, Haig:
The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24, Jan-Erik Solheim, Kjell Stordahl, Ole Humlum, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics February 9, 2012

Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0 "C from solar cycle 23 to 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25-56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63-72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar signal.

 

[r-j]

The visible spectrum contains most of the Suns energy output. (which is why eyes evolved to see in the visible spectrum to begin with)

I think you mean at the surface of the earth.

As for the sun and climate, I was just reading this page http://atmospheres.gsfc.nasa.gov/climate/index.php?section=136

There are two important findings from SORCE. First, the high accurate TIM (Total Irradiance Monitor) on SORCE reveals a much lower TSI of ~1361 W/m2 as compared to ~1366 W/m2 from earlier observations [Kopp et al., 2005]. The difference in global average is about the same as the relative radiative forcing of CO2 since the industrial revolution. Second, the SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed SSI does not vary all in-phase with solar activity as compared to the in-phase variations as we have understood from proxy reconstructions [Harder et al., 2009]. The first discovery is critical in examining the energy budget of the planet Earth and isolating the climate change due to human activities. The second finding is crucial in understanding the physical mechanisms of the impact of solar variation on Earth’s climate. Based on SIM observations Cahalan et al. [2010] demonstrate remarkable different climate responses (stratosphere, troposphere, ocean mixed layer) to SORCE-based and proxy-based SSI variations. The out-of-phase SSI variations also have implications to re-examine the connection of the Sun and stratosphere, troposphere, biosphere, ocean, and Earth’s climate.

 

[Haig]

No because he is ignorant of the science that global warming has been disconnected from the Sun for over 30 years

What global warming? There has been NO statistically significant global warming since 1995

that it is CO2 that is the primary driver of climate change

So CO2 continues to shoot up and the warming has stopped!

RC these guys still say it's the Sun driving climate change and causing the cooling now! (my bold) and the Sun is in a strange state just now ... two North and two South poles.
Solheim, Stordahl and Humlum in their paper entitled “The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24”
PDF http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf

 

[Haig]

Astronomical observatory in Japan say it's the Sun and it's expected to cool the Earth. Seems to support the OP very well RC

The sun may start to enter a period of educed activity, which could result in lower temperatures on Earth, according to Japanese researchers.

Officials from the national Astronomical observatory in Japan and the Riken research foundation said on April 19th that the activity of sunspots resemble a 70 year period in the 17th century in which London’s Thames froze over, and cherry blossoms bloomed a lot later than usual in Kyoto.

The ear known as the Maunder Minimum, temperatures where estimated to be around about 2.5 degrees lower than in the second half of the 20th century.

http://www.earthchangenews.com/2012/04/sun-may-soon-have-four-poles-say.html

 

[DC]

What global warming? There has been NO statistically significant global warming since 1995

So CO2 continues to shoot up and the warming has stopped!

RC these guys still say it's the Sun driving climate change and causing the cooling now! (my bold) and the Sun is in a strange state just now ... two North and two South poles.
Solheim, Stordahl and Humlum in their paper entitled “The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24”
PDF http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf

LOL and deniers claim the warmers are cherrypicking stations.

 

[DC]

No they aren't. It depends mostly on the colour of the aggregate and the finish. Cement itself has a much higher albedo than a typical forest would during summer. But that's in the visible spectrum.
This is a common mistake however, people think you cut down a dark green forest and put up a white concrete building and the albedo goes up. Unfortunately it's not that simple. What we're talking about when we say albedo is really the process and the result of the change to it and not simply a dimensionless number.

what is for you a typical forest? and what's the albedo of that?

 

[DC]

What global warming? There has been NO statistically significant global warming since 1995

So CO2 continues to shoot up and the warming has stopped!

you got any evidence the warming stopped?
you know the difference between "no statistically significant warming at a 95% confidence level" and "no warming"?

 

[Pixel42]

What global warming? There has been NO statistically significant global warming since 1995

Wrong.

Global warming since 1995 'now significant'

By widespread convention, scientists use a minimum threshold of 95% to assess whether a trend is likely to be down to an underlying cause, rather than emerging by chance.

If a trend meets the 95% threshold, it basically means that the odds of it being down to chance are less than one in 20.

Last year's analysis, which went to 2009, did not reach this threshold; but adding data for 2010 takes it over the line.

"The trend over the period 1995-2009 was significant at the 90% level, but wasn't significant at the standard 95% level that people use," Professor Jones told BBC News.

"Basically what's changed is one more year [of data]. That period 1995-2009 was just 15 years - and because of the uncertainty in estimating trends over short periods, an extra year has made that trend significant at the 95% level which is the traditional threshold that statisticians have used for many years.

"It just shows the difficulty of achieving significance with a short time series, and that's why longer series - 20 or 30 years - would be a much better way of estimating trends and getting significance on a consistent basis."

Professor Jones' previous comment, from a BBC interview in Febuary 2010, is routinely quoted - erroneously - as demonstration that the Earth's surface temperature is not rising.

 

[aleCcowaN]

What global warming? There has been NO statistically significant global warming since 1995

And here there is a cooling that started about 3 p.m. and now -5 a.m- it has dropped several degrees. I have evidence that the same is happening everywhere. Are we going to die?

But seriously, I suppose that your "1995" comes from what you -or others- suppose to be the beginning of "statistically significant global warming", that is, from 1994 to present "there is a statistically significant" global warming", what is an interesting acceptance. Otherwise, what does that "1995" come from? Is it some normal? Is it some exploit of someone saying 17 years is climate (instead of 30)? Did you need to tune the term "statistical significance" to match the whole package or you have a credited source for your claimed "NO (sic) statistically significant global warming since 1995" that defines how to determine the statistical significance of a variable series? Can you show this criteria clearly and the set of data used to arrive to your conclusion? Is that conclusion inescapable?

 

[Haig]

FYI, Haig:

FYI , RC :
Solar forcing of the polar atmosphere

Our identification of solar forcing of the polar atmosphere and its impact on lower latitudes offers a mechanism for better understanding modern climate variability and potentially the initiation of abrupt climate-change events that operate on decadal and faster scales.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Astronomical observatory in Japan say it's the Sun and it's expected to cool the Earth. Seems to support the OP very well RC

http://www.earthchangenews.com/2012/04/sun-may-soon-have-four-poles-say.html

Which "educed activity"? Is it the dawning of the Age of Aquarius?

What "ear of Maunder Minimum"?

Did that happen (in May 2012)?

 

[Haig]

Astronomical observatory in Japan say it's the Sun and it's expected to cool the Earth. Seems to support the OP very well RC

http://www.earthchangenews.com/2012/04/sun-may-soon-have-four-poles-say.html

Sun-Climate Linkage Now Confirmed

When the Sun, atmospheric circulation, Earth's rotation, and sea temperature have been investigated as a single unit, the linkage between the Sun and climate is confirmed (Mazzarella, 2007, 2008); application of this integrated model provides a forecast estimate for a gradual cooling of the Earth's atmosphere in this decade