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Inflation!! No wait...

Not here in the UK, commercial landlords are hurting badly, rents are falling and so is occupancy

Some factory rents are falling a bit, ditto some office space (usually the clapped out ones) but retail rents are still making hay even with falling occupancy. Shopping Centre rents are still sky-high, mainly because of the way shopping centres are valued. Yes they are back to offering "incentives" but not moving on base rates, it's the eighties all over again.

Steve
 
Due to the idiosyncrasies of commercial property, headline rents rarely do go down, but rent-free periods and other side-rebates do the work instead. So it is pretty useless to look at advertised rent for office/retail/industrial real estate as a market indicator.

Residential rents, where none of this happens, are in the loo--still at mid-2000s levels IIRC.
 
Due to the idiosyncrasies of commercial property, headline rents rarely do go down, but rent-free periods and other side-rebates do the work instead. So it is pretty useless to look at advertised rent for office/retail/industrial real estate as a market indicator.

Residential rents, where none of this happens, are in the loo--still at mid-2000s levels IIRC.

I take your point but as happened to a number of companies before (Birthdays, Athena to name but two) the headline rate remains the headline rate and at the point where the deals run out has to be paid.

Steve
 
from CBS

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505144_162-57387655/inflation-not-as-low-as-you-think

Forget the modest 3.1 percent rise in the Consumer Price Index, the government's widely used measure of inflation. Everyday prices are up some 8 percent over the past year, according to the American Institute for Economic Research.

The not-for-profit research group measures inflation without looking at the big, one-time purchases that can skew the numbers. That means they don't look at the price of houses, furniture, appliances, cars, or computers. Instead, AIER focuses on Americans' typical daily purchases, such as food, gasoline, child care, prescription drugs, phone and television service, and other household products.

The institute contends that to get a good read on inflation's "sticker shock" effect, you must look at the cost of goods that the average household buys at least once a month and factor in only the kinds of expenses that are subject to change. That, too, eliminates the cost of housing because when you finance your home with a fixed-rate mortgage, that expense remains constant until you refinance or move.

The group maintains that this index better measures the real-world impact of price changes, particularly for people on a budget. And, largely as the result of the recent run-up in gas prices, this "everyday price index" (EPI) suggests that Americans are being pinched far more tightly than the official inflation measure would have you believe.

from the American Institute for Economic Research report

http://www.aier.org/article/7557-epi-reflects-basic-economic-change

Technology and globalization have restrained prices on big-ticket items. But they caused fewer price breaks for frequently purchased goods. Toothpaste ain’t so high-tech.

AIER developed the Everyday Price Index (EPI) to address the widespread perception that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not reflect the day-to-day experience of Americans. As we continue to study and refine the EPI, we find that the divergence between inflation measured by the CPI and an index that measures direct experience is mostly a product of 21st-century changes in the economy.

In the shorter and intermediate terms, when people are faced with a higher price for an item, they simply buy less of it. Eventually, they may substitute cheaper goods. These effects are fairly small, but can add up over time.

To address this, we have revised the Everyday Price Index to allow for constantly adjusting weights. Weights are simply the proportion of your total expenditure that you spend on each good or service you purchase each month. Dynamic weights allow for day-to-day changes in consumer behavior related to price changes.

This weighting results in a 2011 average annual inflation rate of 8 percent as measured by the Everyday Price Index, compared to a mere 3.1 percent from the CPI. (The unweighted EPI inflation rate for 2011 was 7.2 percent, as reported in the last issue of the Economic Bulletin.)

so actually much closer to the Shadowstats figures than the official figures.

who'dathunk it?
 
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The acid test of how credible a number is is how many people believe it. PriceStats (an originally independent outfit that was formed in Argentina to source inflation data to fill the void left by the widely discredited and meddled-with INDEC numbers) measures US inflation as well at reports a real-time (daily) inflation rate, the latest one being about 2.2% which is just under reported CPI-U.

I can't post the data because it is behind a paywall, as PriceStats recently sold themselves to State Street Bank (Hint: it costs money, that means investors who have a vested interest in knowing the true rates of inflation around the world value it ;) )

The Economist magazine recently publicly endorsed it in a leader article and annouced they were switching their reporting of Argentina's inflation rate to PriceStats (Bit late; most people have been following it for a few years)
 
The acid test of how credible a number is is how many people believe it. PriceStats (an originally independent outfit that was formed in Argentina to source inflation data to fill the void left by the widely discredited and meddled-with INDEC numbers) measures US inflation as well at reports a real-time (daily) inflation rate, the latest one being about 2.2% which is just under reported CPI-U.

I can't post the data because it is behind a paywall, as PriceStats recently sold themselves to State Street Bank (Hint: it costs money, that means investors who have a vested interest in knowing the true rates of inflation around the world value it ;) )

The Economist magazine recently publicly endorsed it in a leader article and annouced they were switching their reporting of Argentina's inflation rate to PriceStats (Bit late; most people have been following it for a few years)

2.2% per day? - I know I think its under-reported, but that even seems a little high to me ;)
 

Rate on 30-year mortgage falls to record 3.66 percent


Market showing its confidence that for the next 30 years inflation will remain low.

Inflation is already off-the-charts high, if financial asset prices (specifically bonds) are considered, as opposed to myopically focusing on consumer prices. Those who own financial/other assets don't seem to mind, as they "feel" richer, and those who don't seem to be largely ignorant of this insidious form of wealth expropriation. Of course, the elites at the top who benefit from unlimited subsidized credit and socialized (too big to fail!) losses are the real beneficiaries of our monetary and banking system.

When the US debt bubble bursts, and I assure you this will be a lot sooner than three decades from now, you will see either hyper-inflation, or hyper-deflation, depending on the whims of central banks.
 
Inflation is already off-the-charts high, if financial asset prices (specifically bonds) are considered, as opposed to myopically focusing on consumer prices.

If you're going to include financial asset prices, why not real estate prices too?

Residential real estate prices are down by 35% since 2006.
 
Basic food is quite up around here. Gas is back down from the 4.40 it hit before the threat of a congressional investigation. Two weeks after that, it's down to 3.65

Y'all figure.
 
If you're going to include financial asset prices, why not real estate prices too?

Residential real estate prices are down by 35% since 2006.

which is after all how they delude people into believing their fuzzy inflation numbers
 
If you're going to include financial asset prices, why not real estate prices too?

Residential real estate prices are down by 35% since 2006.

That's fine. But the aggregate money supply has gone up regardless of the real estate market, which is the only thing that matters vis-a-vis inflation. The point is that this is a method of wealth expropriation, and not a legitimate activity, whether it's by inflation, or deflation. We need to stop allowing banks and politicians to manipulate our money.
 
That's fine. But the aggregate money supply has gone up regardless of the real estate market, which is the only thing that matters vis-a-vis inflation. The point is that this is a method of wealth expropriation, and not a legitimate activity, whether it's by inflation, or deflation. We need to stop allowing banks and politicians to manipulate our money.

Article:
After a small pause in 2010, the supply of dollars continues to grow. The euro crisis has increased dollar demand and US M3 could surpass $15 trillion this year
 
Inflation is already off-the-charts high, if financial asset prices (specifically bonds) are considered, as opposed to myopically focusing on consumer prices.
Definition of 'Inflation'
The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.

Definition of 'Financial Asset'
An asset that derives value because of a contractual claim. Stocks, bonds, bank deposits, and the like are all examples of financial assets.
Unlike land and property--which are tangible, physical assets--financial assets do not necessarily have physical worth.


Financial assets are not goods or services, and therefore by definition are not counted in inflation. They may contribute to inflation, but if so then they are already accounted for - in the prices of goods and services!

Perhaps you think the official definition of inflation is 'myopic', but that doesn't give you the authority to redefine it however you like.

When the US debt bubble bursts, and I assure you this will be a lot sooner than three decades from now, you will see either hyper-inflation, or hyper-deflation, depending on the whims of central banks.
Or perhaps hyper-stagflation, or hyper-reflation, or hyper non-flation. Hyper-something anyway, for sure! :rolleyes:

You assurance is comforting because some of us might not last another 3 decades, and we wouldn't want to miss this hyper-whatever. However we still don't know when to expect it. Would it be possible to make your prediction a bit more precise, so that we may have a better idea of when to start looking out for it?
 
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Definition of 'Inflation'
The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.

Perhaps you think the official definition of inflation is 'myopic', but that doesn't give you the authority to redefine it however you like.

that's the rearview mirror definition, ie "how much price rise can we see in the (carefully selected and continually *adjusted*) basket of goods and services we choose to monitor.

this is the definition you want http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School#Inflation

inflation is by definition always and everywhere an increase in the money supply (i.e. units of currency or means of exchange), which in turn leads to a nominal price level that is higher than it would have been without the inflation, for assets (such as housing) and other goods and services in demand, as the real value of each monetary unit is eroded, loses purchasing power and thus buys fewer goods and services. - Murray Rothbard

ie price rises of (carefully selected and continually *adjusted*) goods and services are only the *easily visible* after-effects of inflation

usage: "those banking mofos inflated the money supply!" ;)

Or perhaps hyper-stagflation, or hyper-reflation, or hyper non-flation. Hyper-something anyway, for sure! :rolleyes:

You assurance is comforting because some of us might not last another 3 decades, and we wouldn't want to miss this hyper-whatever. However we still don't know when to expect it. Would it be possible to make your prediction a bit more precise, so that we may have a better idea of when to start looking out for it?

I dont know when either, but I also suspect the unwinding of this bubble when it comes will be epic. do try not to pass away in the meantime ;)

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Huge day for oil on Friday. Of course oil had been taking a huge beating over the last month or two, but it came roaring back on Friday. Brent was up over $6 and WTI over $7.

I guess that's kind of a vote of confidence in the economy after the EU reached a new agreement at the summit.
 
Huge day for oil on Friday. Of course oil had been taking a huge beating over the last month or two, but it came roaring back on Friday. Brent was up over $6 and WTI over $7.

I guess that's kind of a vote of confidence in the economy after the EU reached a new agreement at the summit.

no it was primarily an EURUSD short squeeze I think, ie Risk on again because CBs are printing (or agreeing to work on a plan, for a plan, to print or something (**details to follow)

I was fairly confident crude was going to bounce there somewhere, but I don't think anyone was expecting 10% in a day.

I took half of this off near close on Friday at $85.00

**Disclosure, long oil futures from $78.50 and short Dow at 12631. up 200+ points thus far and should have a long way to run.

trail stops now, work on my patience, and see how far it will run. will be looking to re-initiate further Dow shorts from as high as we can get before it rolls over again.

remember what happened last time they saved the world at one of their meetings back in Oct 2011, that one managed a 400bps rally, and couple of day or so before it was faded, this one 260bps so far, and we shall see shortly.

Today's 4-sigma short-squeeze ramp in EURUSD (up over 220pips from pre-Summit-statement) is very reminiscent of the 10/26/11 reaction to the Greek debt deal. EURUSD rallied magnificently, squeezing a dominating short-crowd over 400 pips higher that time. But it is the impulse reaction that we note - within two days, the entire rally had faded and indeed went on to sell off for a few more months as reality struck. One month after that previous last 4-sigma jump in EURUSD (late November 2011) we saw the global co-ordinated central bank liftathon that started the five-month epic idiocy of the equity exuberance that was the decoupling self-sustaining short-squeezing 'cleanest dirty shirt' first quarter of 2012. Trade accordingly.

and here is how the EUR reacted to the Greek debt deal (a 400 pip rally) and then the hangover fade as all those shorts were burnt and the fundamental reality kicked back in.

rallies will be faded soon enough as first Italy properly, then France and Germany are next in the crosshairs.
 
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