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Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

Brainster said:
Since you posted that, things have changed. Obama now needs to win 27 of the 125 toss-up votes, while Romney needs 100. Wisconsin moved into the toss-up category. I also note that there are 82 electoral college votes in states that lean Obama, while there are only 39 in states that lean Romney, and 36 of those latter (Indiana, South Carolina and Georgia) seem pretty safe GOP havens to me. Of course, some of the "lean Obama" states seem secure for the Democrats: NJ, Michigan and Oregon are unlikely to turn red.
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Huffpo also has an electoral map, and in their projection Obama has 284 electoral votes to Romney's 170.

The main differences are that RCP has Iowa and NH as toss-ups while Huffpo has them as strong Obama, and Huffpo puts VA and OH in the leans Obama category while they are toss-ups according to RCP.
 
Puppycow said:
Huffpo also has an electoral map, and in their projection Obama has 284 electoral votes to Romney's 170.

The main differences are that RCP has Iowa and NH as toss-ups while Huffpo has them as strong Obama, and Huffpo puts VA and OH in the leans Obama category while they are toss-ups according to RCP.
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I'll lean towards RCP. I think Huffington may have a too-optimistic methodology.
 
BenBurch said:
I'll lean towards RCP. I think Huffington may have a too-optimistic methodology.
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OK, but here's the RCP averages for the states in question:

VA: Obama +3.2%
OH: Obama +4.6%
Iowa: Obama +4.0%
NH: Obama +6.4%

Colorado and Wisconsin also seem to look pretty good for Obama.
 
Chaos said:
So now is the time to buy stocks of ammo manufacturers?
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Heck just set up a fireworks stand next to their houses. They will buy anything that explodes. (insert ford pinto joke here)

RandFan said:
I think you are missing the logic of the argument. Take for instance the fact that Obama has not yet acted to outlaw capitalism. Doesn't that raise all kinds of red flags? You gotta know that this closet radical socialist wants to take away our god given rights to sell transformer action figures. His inaction speaks volumes. And let me point out that he has yet to take a position on drowning puppies. The guy makes me so sick.
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While you made me laugh there is an actual flaw in your logic. President Obama has taken a position on guns by expanding gun owner rights. However your concern for puppies is noted and shared.
 
Biscuit said:
While you made me laugh there is an actual flaw in your logic. President Obama has taken a position on guns by expanding gun owner rights. However your concern for puppies is noted and shared.
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Conceded. :)
 
Puppycow said:
OK, but here's the RCP averages for the states in question:

VA: Obama +3.2%
OH: Obama +4.6%
Iowa: Obama +4.0%
NH: Obama +6.4%

Colorado and Wisconsin also seem to look pretty good for Obama.
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And don't forget that Obama seems to have a pretty good shot at taking MI, FL, and possibly even NC. If Obama takes even one or two of these contested states, he's very likely going to win; whereas Romney would probably have to win most, if not all, of these contested states to win.

It's numbers like this that have likely caused various prediction markets to give President Obama about 60-65% at re-election, while Romney can only garner about 35-40%. At this stage, I would trust pretty much any major prediction market over nationwide polls.

Once you actually start breaking down the polling into state-by-state and comparing that to the potential Electoral College outcomes, it is no wonder the Republicans are getting desparate. They've done the math and see a long, uncomfortable uphill slog as well.
 
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Betting odds have tightened significantly.

Obama: +175
Romney: -145
 
Cleon said:
Never underestimate the Democrats' ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
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The Cory Booker fiasco seems like good case in point. Fortunately it's far enough from the election that nobody will remember it by then. I don't expect he will be used as a "surrogate" by the Obama campaign anymore.
 
Puppycow said:
Huffpo also has an electoral map, and in their projection Obama has 284 electoral votes to Romney's 170.

The main differences are that RCP has Iowa and NH as toss-ups while Huffpo has them as strong Obama, and Huffpo puts VA and OH in the leans Obama category while they are toss-ups according to RCP.
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The huff and puff pollsters are huffing and puffing on something over there.
 
Puppycow said:
OK, but here's the RCP averages for the states in question:

VA: Obama +3.2%
OH: Obama +4.6%
Iowa: Obama +4.0%
NH: Obama +6.4%

Colorado and Wisconsin also seem to look pretty good for Obama.
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Obama will never carry Virginia this election. You can chisel that in stone.
 
One issue that hasn't been raised much is the question of the Supreme Court decision on the individual mandate (and the Affordable Care Act as a whole) which is expected within a month. I think this decision could have a major impact on the campaign and election.
 
JoeTheJuggler said:
One issue that hasn't been raised much is the question of the Supreme Court decision on the individual mandate (and the Affordable Care Act as a whole) which is expected within a month. I think this decision could have a major impact on the campaign and election.
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Yeah, but I have no idea how the decision will be spun no matter what it is.

Thoughts?
 
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