Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

[MattusMaximus]

Let's also not forget that national polls like these don't take into account electoral votes. Obama has a pretty strong advantage. Based on RCP's electoral college map, Obama only needs to win 17 of the 115 toss up electoral votes, while Romney has to win 100 of them. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Yeah, this is pretty bad news for Romney and the GOP/Tea Party. The Republicans basically have to win nearly every single state in the toss-up category to win the White House, whereas President Obama wins so long as he takes only two of them (or one if he gets Ohio or Florida).

And those are some pretty long odds for Romney and the GOP/Tea Party. I suspect they have already done the math on this, which explains why so many on the right are starting to get desperate (i.e. bringing back Wright, etc) so early in the election cycle.

 

[Puppycow]

Let's also not forget that national polls like these don't take into account electoral votes. Obama has a pretty strong advantage. Based on RCP's electoral college map, Obama only needs to win 17 of the 115 toss up electoral votes, while Romney has to win 100 of them. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Arizona is a tossup? Really?

 

[MattusMaximus]

Arizona is a tossup? Really?

Personally, I think that one's a stretch (along with Missouri), but Arizona has an ever-growing younger Hispanic population along with an ever-shrinking older white population. If you do the math on those demographics, it isn't hard to see Arizona going blue within the next election cycle or two, just as New Mexico did. And the Republicans know it, which is why they're getting skittish on the immigration question. Too bad for the GOP establishment that the Tea Party will continue to push them hard to the right on the issue.

 

[Mudcat]

More like a Gay Marriage blowout.

The stupidity of Biden, Obama, the Media, gays in the Democratic Party is amazing. In just one day they have made the number one issue on the ballot in November to be Gay Marriage instead of the economy.

You apparently don't get the genius of the move, so let me explain it to you:

Gay Marriage can only help promote a more healthy economy and Obama making this move now instead of after he secures his second term seems to only serve to give GOP something else to focus on apart from himself. He's very sly.

 

[BenBurch]

Personally, I think that one's a stretch (along with Missouri), but Arizona has an ever-growing younger Hispanic population along with an ever-shrinking older white population. If you do the math on those demographics, it isn't hard to see Arizona going blue within the next election cycle or two, just as New Mexico did. And the Republicans know it, which is why they're getting skittish on the immigration question. Too bad for the GOP establishment that the Tea Party will continue to push them hard to the right on the issue.

Voter suppression and voter turnout will determine AZ.

 

[MaGZ]

Yeah, this is pretty bad news for Romney and the GOP/Tea Party. The Republicans basically have to win nearly every single state in the toss-up category to win the White House, whereas President Obama wins so long as he takes only two of them (or one if he gets Ohio or Florida).

And those are some pretty long odds for Romney and the GOP/Tea Party. I suspect they have already done the math on this, which explains why so many on the right are starting to get desperate (i.e. bringing back Wright, etc) so early in the election cycle.

If you look at VP Biden’s recent antics, it seems Team Obama is the desperate one.

 

[AlBell]

More like a Gay Marriage blowout.

The stupidity of Biden, Obama, the Media, gays in the Democratic Party is amazing. In just one day they have made the number one issue on the ballot in November to be Gay Marriage instead of the economy.

I geatly doubt that. I predict the economy will remain the major issue and that's what Republican Oct-Nov SuperPac ads will be about.

Dem ads will only continue to flog Romney in every way possible.

 

[RandFan]

I geatly doubt that. I predict the economy will remain the major issue and that's what Republican Oct-Nov SuperPac ads will be about.

As if Romney could do anything to help the economy. 10 years of tax cuts aren't enough. We need to lower them further.

Dem ads will only continue to flog Romney in every way possible.

Yeah, black and white thinking. Republicans will only do good and Democrats will only do bad. Democrats will talk about Mitts record which according to Romney is character assassination. I suppose focusing on all of Romney's flip flops will be to "flog" Romney.

 

[Brainster]

Let's also not forget that national polls like these don't take into account electoral votes. Obama has a pretty strong advantage. Based on RCP's electoral college map, Obama only needs to win 17 of the 115 toss up electoral votes, while Romney has to win 100 of them. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Since you posted that, things have changed. Obama now needs to win 27 of the 125 toss-up votes, while Romney needs 100. Wisconsin moved into the toss-up category. I also note that there are 82 electoral college votes in states that lean Obama, while there are only 39 in states that lean Romney, and 36 of those latter (Indiana, South Carolina and Georgia) seem pretty safe GOP havens to me. Of course, some of the "lean Obama" states seem secure for the Democrats: NJ, Michigan and Oregon are unlikely to turn red.

 

[BenBurch]

Since you posted that, things have changed. Obama now needs to win 27 of the 125 toss-up votes, while Romney needs 100. Wisconsin moved into the toss-up category. I also note that there are 82 electoral college votes in states that lean Obama, while there are only 39 in states that lean Romney, and 36 of those latter (Indiana, South Carolina and Georgia) seem pretty safe GOP havens to me. Of course, some of the "lean Obama" states seem secure for the Democrats: NJ, Michigan and Oregon are unlikely to turn red.

MI I am no longer sure of, but I still like the map as it is.

 

[RandFan]

Since you posted that, things have changed. Obama now needs to win 27 of the 125 toss-up votes, while Romney needs 100. Wisconsin moved into the toss-up category. I also note that there are 82 electoral college votes in states that lean Obama, while there are only 39 in states that lean Romney, and 36 of those latter (Indiana, South Carolina and Georgia) seem pretty safe GOP havens to me. Of course, some of the "lean Obama" states seem secure for the Democrats: NJ, Michigan and Oregon are unlikely to turn red.

I'm not at all confident that it will be anything but a very close race. I think we will see the map tighten closer in the next few months.

 

[BenBurch]

I'm not at all confident that it will be anything but a very close race. I think we will see the map tighten closer in the next few months.

Unless dirt on Romney surfaces, very close.

 

[RandFan]

Unless dirt on Romney surfaces, very close.

One thing we must keep in mind is the incomprehensible amount of money that will be spent. Romney has powerful backers and these are people who do not like to lose.

 

[BenBurch]

One thing we must keep in mind is the incomprehensible amount of money that will be spent. Romney has powerful backers and these are people who do not like to lose.

Yes, and the message that Obama needs to put out; "Romney is trying to BUY you like he bought the businesses he destroyed. And for the SAME REASON."

 

[AlBell]

Yes, and the message that Obama needs to put out; "Romney is trying to BUY you like he bought the businesses he destroyed. And for the SAME REASON."

UnHuh.

What do you foresee with 4 more yrs Obama other than decreasing liberties, higher taxes, and a larger debt?

 

[Unabogie]

UnHuh.

What do you foresee with 4 more yrs Obama other than decreasing liberties, higher taxes, and a larger debt?

You're funny. Taxes are down, not up.

But they should go up. The Bush tax cuts are almost exclusively to blame for the the large deficits. This is not controversial.

But if taxes DO go up, then won't the debt go down? Isn't that the simplest math to figure out?

ETA: Evidence about taxes and debt.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/20/bush-tax-cuts-debt_n_864812.html

This chart isn't new, but I realized that people will demand evidence! Evidence that 10 years of tax cuts for wealthy people will decrease revenue, since everyone know cutting rich people's taxes pays for itself.

 

[RandFan]

UnHuh.

What do you foresee with 4 more yrs Obama other than decreasing liberties, higher taxes, and a larger debt?

Suborn facts: The debt as a percentage of GDP has gone down under Obama. Unlike the Bush administration the economy is improving.

What do you forsee with 4 years of Romney other than the same worthless policies of Bush? Lower taxes, larger debt, fewer jobs. Loss of rights for women? Loss of rights for gays and lesbians? Loss of rights for atheists and Muslims. More religion in government? More silly failed policies like abstinence only education? More forged scientific papers like under Bush? More wars and and infringements on speech? More erosion of rights for minorities?

 

[AlBell]

Stuborn facts: The debt as a percentage of GDP has gone down under Obama. Unlike the Bush administration the economy is improving.

And GDP growth of less than 2.5% remains anemic.

What do you forsee with 4 years of Romney other than the same worthless policies of Bush? Lower taxes, larger debt, fewer jobs. Loss of rights for women? Loss of rights for gays and lesbians? Loss of rights for atheists and Muslims. More religion in government? More silly failed policies like abstinence only education? More forged scientific papers like under Bush? More wars and and infringements on speech? More erosion of rights for minorities?

Lower taxes? No. Just not a raise (other than Bush cuts expiring).

Loss of LGBT rights? I'd hope he defends DOMA.

Atheists/muslims? No idea.

More religion in govt? I think not.

Abstinence only? Unknown.

Forged papers? I doubt it.

Wars? I suspect Obama will crank up on Iran pre-election.

Speech infringements? I doubt it.

Minority rights? No change other than DOMA.

Repeal of Obamacare? I doubt it.

I suspect my crystal ball is not perfect though. I admit I don't care for Romney and hope he chooses a worthwhile VP. As you've mentioned in another thread I too see it as 50/50. Dammit!

 

[RandFan]

And GDP growth of less than 2.5% remains anemic.

No kidding. We had 10 years of low tax rates and Bush policies. We had a bank meltdown. Europe had a recession and they are in a second recession while our economy is expanding.

Lower taxes? No. Just not a raise (other than Bush cuts expiring).

Romney calls for 20 percent lower taxes; omits details on how to pay for them

Loss of LGBT rights? I'd hope he defends DOMA.

Hope? I'm sorry, what was that thing about freedom?

Atheists/muslims? No idea.

More religion in govt? I think not.

Abstinence only? Unknown.

Forged papers? I doubt it.

Wars? I suspect Obama will crank up on Iran pre-election.

Speech infringements? I doubt it.

Minority rights? No change other than DOMA.

Repeal of Obamacare? I doubt it.

I suspect my crystal ball is not perfect though. I admit I don't care for Romney and hope he chooses a worthwhile VP. As you've mentioned in another thread I too see it as 50/50. Dammit!

Look at what the GOP is doing right now. You can "doubt" until the cows come home but look at Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. Look at what the GOP has done in the last couple of years. Voter ID laws. Infringement on women's rights. You don't need a crystal ball. Just look at what has been done already.

 

[applecorped]

look at Bush

Yay, BDS is alive!!!