How does North Korea End?

[Caper]

So I'm reading a book review on a survivor from a North korean prison camp.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/12/books/escape-from-camp-14-by-blaine-harden.html

It sounds just awful. I'm sure you've all read similar stories.

I have a question.

How does this mess end?

I can't think of any good route to take. So basically the world just does nothing. Sanctions... but basically nothing... and I can't really fault them for it because... what the hell do you do?

How does this mess end?

 

[angrysoba]

Well, it may end when the diminishing returns of each successive Kim fails to convince the country that the latest Kim is all that he's cracked up to be. I expect that while North Korea will continue as it is for a few more years it will probably be untenable eventually. But nobody really knows when this eventually will be.

 

[IDB87]

Not with a whimper but with a bang.

 

[Caper]

Two different answers.... and two very distinct possibilities. To me the key is China. China has to step up and help fix this.... just ddon't ask me how.

 

[Mycroft]

It will probably end with lots of bloodshed, but it's hard to imagine that being much worse than the situation as it is now.

 

[Cleon]

With an "a."

 

[MG1962]

It will probably end with lots of bloodshed, but it's hard to imagine that being much worse than the situation as it is now.

Yeah the best scenario is going to be a bloody nightmare for these people - virtually the whole population is going to have to go to a nut house to get de-programed

 

[angrysoba]

Two different answers.... and two very distinct possibilities. To me the key is China. China has to step up and help fix this.... just ddon't ask me how.

They're not completely distinct. I don't know what will happen when the regime finally knows it is over. I think that IDB87 may well be right that it won't end quietly. In fact, B.R Myers, in his Cleanest Race, quotes some internal regime propaganda that mocks the Soviet Union for going down without even firing a shot. The suggestion seems to be that the North Korean regime won't go so peacefully, but honestly, who knows?

 

[shemp]

The butler did it.

 

[Caper]

They're not completely distinct. I don't know what will happen when the regime finally knows it is over. I think that IDB87 may well be right that it won't end quietly. In fact, B.R Myers, in his Cleanest Race, quotes some internal regime propaganda that mocks the Soviet Union for going down without even firing a shot. The suggestion seems to be that the North Korean regime won't go so peacefully, but honestly, who knows?

What complicates things further is that the neighbors, in a way are scared of the regime to fall. What do you do with so many refugees? They are basically robots. It's just insane.

 

[Quad4_72]

Either N Korea gets wiped out militarily or they starve themselves to death.

 

[trustbutverify]

George Galloway will make a special state visit to Pyongyang where he will congratulate Kim Jr. on his indefatigable courage and declare his regime to be a "breath of fresh air".

Shortly thereafter the entire North Korean power structure will collapse.

 

[Dragoonster]

How does this mess end?

I don't see why it will end at all.

 

[Caper]

I don't see why it will end at all.

Another good point. But it should end.

 

[angrysoba]

Another good point. But it should end.

Well, it has been said before that North Korea's collapse is imminent and that it simply can't go on as it is doing. This was pretty much said from the end of the Cold War and was said repeatedly in the 90s when the population was starving and relying on international food aid. Then it was said again in the early 2000s and now is being said again presumably because of the death of Kim Jong-il.

I think that there could be a weakening of the personality cult but many of the factors that are cited as the obvious reasons for the coming collapse seem to be red herrings:

a) So many people are starving or living on the brink of starvation.
b) Many people in North Korea now know they are poor and can watch South Korean soap operas.
c) There's bound to be a military coup sooner or later either by doves or hawks in the top brass.

Yet most of these things seem to be projections. We think that a) and b) should matter and we think there is evidence that the North Korean regime is as divided as c) suggests.

Of course, it may be that for North Koreans, nationalism is a far stronger force than materialism. While we can't imagine going hungry for a nationalist ideology this doesn't mean that the North Koreans won't or don't. Similarly, they may perceive South Koreans as being decadent sell-outs. Just because they can watch South Korean soaps it doesn't mean that they want to live that life.

I think also that we tend to assume that North Koreans generally see through the regime and know that everything they are told is a lie. It might well be that they don't think everything is a lie, or they may be of the impression that some lies and state secrets are worth having.

I don't think it can go on forever and it is possible that there could be a sudden rupturing of the system like there was in Romania or in the Arab Spring countries and yet, in those countries there seems to have been far more obvious dissent and dissatisfaction expressed against the regime. Is there any kind of dissenting movement known about within North Korea itself? Not really.

 

[Eddie Dane]

You never know when these things turn.

Romania happened pretty suddenly.
At least judging by the look on Ceacesku's face.

The thing with NK is that they've taken mass brainwashing to a whole new level.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

b) Many people in North Korea now know they are poor and can watch South Korean soap operas.

Can you expand on this? What has changed -- TV ownership, access to foreign channels, access to electricity?

 

[angrysoba]

Can you expand on this? What has changed -- TV ownership, access to foreign channels, access to electricity?

It seems that more and more North Koreans know about the outside world through smuggled-in phones, DVDs, balloon drops of information from South Korea.

I think that TV and radio ownership is not so much of a factor as the stations are push button ones that make it difficult (in fact highly illegal) to pick up outside transmissions without permission.

On top of that, regime troops stationed on the borders with China (at Dandong, for example) or even those looking across the border from the DMZ will have seen lit-up apartment blocks rising on the other side of the border.

Generally it is accepted by most North Korea watchers that the information blockade is broken. I don't know how long this has been true but my point about it is that even though most North Koreans know they don't live as wealthily as their southern brethren it doesn't necessarily mean that most North Koreans will revolt against their system.

For one thing, North Koreans are taught that:

a) South Koreans may be rich but they are unhappy; to support this they may present suicide figures.

b) The South Koreans are unhappy because they are essentially citizens of a vassal state of the USA.

The North Korean regime may have even got a shot in the arm when the Soviet Union fell as they can claim to be an independent state. The regime tries to paint the South Korean government as lackeys of the Americans and Japanese. For North Koreans, the Korean War ended (or rather didn't end) yesterday. For North Koreans, World War Two ended the day before yesterday. It's very easy for North Korea to stoke the old animosities between themselves and the South, Japan and the USA.

Most of the foregoing is cribbed from reading B.R Myers and Andrei Lankov, among others. But Joshua Stanton's One Free Korea blog is also a very useful source of information.

 

[Balls Brunswick]

Is there a Radio Free Korea like there was a Radio Free Europe? Seems to me that country would be easy to topple from the inside if the citizens of North Korea were given access to the outside world. However, no one really wants to screw around with North Korea as it's a puppet state and buffer zone for China and memories of how bloody and pointless the Korean war was loom heavy.

I'm deeply deeply fascinated by North Korea, I hope to visit there someday.

 

[GlennB]

It's been said already, but China. China invests in industry, agriculture and infrastructure. NK starts feeding itself and exporting cheap goods (FSM knows labour costs will be low enough). Standards of living, education etc gradually rise to the point where relaxing border controls won't mean every NKean who can would instantly disappear southwards. And along the way China installs a puppet administration to slowly facilitate these changes and rein in the military mania. (I did wonder if this latest Kim might have fitted that bill, but I'm not full of confidence.)