When will the AE911 petition finally reach juggernaut strength of 1%?

[Oystein]

I'm loving these stats!

Thanks I do, too


By the way: The total number of Professional Engineers has sometimes been stated as being in the proximity of 300,000, if I recall correctly, but my research has led me to believe it is probably closer to a million. Here's how I figured that out - and the sources of imprecision:

All States I tested so far have tools on their webpages to look up PE licenses. In some it is possible to download a full roster, or query their database such that I get all licenses returned, at least for a count. In some states, this is not possible (or I haven't been able to figure out how). Some states, such as NY, have statistics and tell you how many PEs they have. However, the full rosters are derived using different criteria from state to state: Sometimes, only active licensees are returned, sometimes they also return expired licenses, and sometimes they even return engineers who are not licensed yet, only eligible to do the required exam, and also deceased licensees. The proportion of such non-current licenses to current ones differs from state to state; in one state I found that about 2% of the full database return was deceased; in another I suspected that 30% aren't really alive and fully qualified engineers.

Generally, in most states, somewhere between perhaps 25% and 40% of the licenses I find have a non-current status. This happens for example when an engineer retires, changes career, or simply doesn't need his license any longer for whatever he does professionally. Sometimes an out-of-state engineer got a license for some project and didn't care to renew it after it expired 2 years later. So many of those non-current licenses still represent a person who is fully qualified and capable as an engineer and probably has relevant work experience. In my opinion, a status such as "expired", "inactive", "lapsed" or "retired" does not disqualify the engineer from being counted as "licensed Professional Engineer" for the purpose of counting AE911T signatures (an opinion that I have modified from an earlier, stricter stance, by the way). About 25% of Gage's 300+ PEs have such a non-current status.

Back to counting all PEs: Again, the rosters of various states are derived using different criteria to include or exclude licenses, and sometimes I don't know what these criteria are, or have difficulties assessing what differences they make. Keeping this in mind, I found that the states I looked at so far have between just over 2 and just over 4 PE licenses per 1,000 inhabitants, with a mean just over 3 per 1,000. Extrapolationg this to the USA's total population of 313 million, I estimate that there must be about 1 million PE licenses registered in the 50 states, of which perhaps 700,000 have a status of current/active/clear. Some engineers have licenses from more than one state, or more than one license within a state. This seems true for about 15% of the AE911T signatories, and so I estimate that a discount of 20% is in order to derive the number of engineers (individual persons) from the number of licenses:

I estimate that there are about 800,000 licensed Professional Engineers in the USA, of which roughly 550,000 have a current, active status.

With AE911T listing about 300 licensed PEs, they have so far managed to convince slightly less than 0.04% of the professional community. (This number is higher than the percentage for almost all states I have posted stats about so far because there is one big outlier: Richard Gage's home state of California has about 80 engineers with a CA - license; that's 26% of their signers, but California has only 12% of the US population. Percentage for USA without CA is about 0.026%; for CA I estimate roughly 0.06-0.07%)

 

[ComsatAngel2017]

Thanks for this, Oystein, fascinating hard data! If any of the AE911T lot are trawling these forums your figures will make for very uncomfortable reading - going from a "Fringe" movement to a "Pining-For-Fringe-Status" movement.

 

[newton3376]

Good work Oystein.....you put forth some effort to get these stats and it is what is to be expected with such low numbers.

Gage should be confronted with this stuff (and all the other stuff too) publicly.....

He is no longer a practicing architect and tries to use his "AIA" membership to give him an appearance of authority.

His use of the AIA is bizarre on two fronts....

1. The AIA has denounced the truth movement.
2. Being a member of the AIA doesn't really mean much to those working in the field.

His use of the "numbers" on his petition is bizarre for exactly the reasons you illustrate in this thread.

Gage deserves no respect and has no authority....he should be treated with professional contempt from the professional community.

 

[beachnut]

Thanks I do, too

...
I estimate that there are about 800,000 licensed Professional Engineers in the USA, of which roughly 550,000 have a current, active status.

USA
Only a quarter of engineers have licenses or certifications. (Two-thirds of the civil and architectural engineers are licensed or certified)

I estimate there are 1 to 2 million Mechanical and Electrical Engineers alive in the USA (engineering degrees). Less than 30 percent have PE licenses. Many don't work as engineers after getting a degree. (working and not working)

USA has about 3 million with engineering degrees, about half worked as engineers.

There are nearly 1.7 to 2 million practicing engineers, all kinds. Engineers with jobs in engineering. Some don't have engineering degrees.

There are over 400,000 practicing engineers who don't have degrees in engineering. (in the 1.7 to 2 million working engineers)

2.3 to 2.5 million engineers who are employed, about a million not working as engineers.

Looks bad for Gage.

 

[Orphia Nay]

Thanks again, Oystein. Must resist making derogatory remark about crazy Californians!

 

[Scott Sommers]

This is fantastic stuff. Thank you.

The question I have if, will there be a time when Gage can not get any more signatories? Or at least the growth will slow so much that it will appear no one else will sign? Can we extrapolate from the current decline to when that will be?

 

[Scott Sommers]

(Also, I find it interesting that the signers tend to be rather old! I estimated their ages from the years of graduation, or years of experience as given in their profiles)

This was a point I noticed from my visual inspections of their list. I suspect these are people who signed when they thought 9/11 Truth was a warm fuzzy protest against the demon Bush. My guess is that, on the personal level, Gage is still able to convince older and confused people that this is some sort of humane mission conducted by "people who really care" and not just a pack of money-hungry hookers who will say anything that will get them a few more dollars. Certainly that's the way he comes across here listening to the forum members who have met with him face-to-face.

Would this kind of guy appear convincing to my grandfather? My guess is that he could. Would he be able to convince him to do anything other than give him a name? I doubt it.

 

[ozeco41]

...Would this kind of guy appear convincing to my grandfather? My guess is that he could. Would he be able to convince him to do anything other than give him a name? I doubt it.

That second point about "would they do anything" is my assessment also. The so-called "petition" is written so it is easy to agree with. And it carries no obligation to "do" anything.

 

[Oystein]

This is fantastic stuff. Thank you.

The question I have if, will there be a time when Gage can not get any more signatories? Or at least the growth will slow so much that it will appear no one else will sign? Can we extrapolate from the current decline to when that will be?

Don't think this will trickle down to zero as long as they are active at all. I also don't know how define the threshold below which you could say "appears like no one else will sign". Perhaps we are already there?

When I first noticed this decline in even the linear growth rate, I wondered if part of the reason could be that they are already nearing their total potential - that indeed no more than a few hundred engineers all over the USA can possibly be conned and fooled by that circus show. Now, seeing that California is ahead of the rest of the country by a factor of more than two, it would seem that there still is some potential left.

I think a more important reason for the decline is the general decline in interest for 9/11. The activists retire, and after >10 years, people have simply moved on.

I think Gage will close shop due to lack of income before the trickle of signatures will come to a complete halt.

 

[ozeco41]

...I think Gage will close shop due to lack of income before the trickle of signatures will come to a complete halt.

Yes. And the last thing he will do is forward the petition....

 

[Scott Sommers]

I also don't know how define the threshold below which you could say "appears like no one else will sign". Perhaps we are already there?

Looking at your amazing diagram, it appears there is still meaningful growth in AE9/11T. If I read it correctly, there appears to be about 4 new names a day on their list.

2. Short-term development October 2011 - March 2012:

We could fit a linear equation to the points and calculate when when it will drop below one person a day. That's the sort of thing I meant.

 

[Oystein]

Looking at your amazing diagram, it appears there is still meaningful growth in AE9/11T. If I read it correctly, there appears to be about 4 new names a day on their list.

2. Short-term development October 2011 - March 2012:

[qimg]http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/i328/MikeAlfaromeo/AE911T/20120331_LinGrowth_after_Sep2011.png[/qimg]

We could fit a linear equation to the points and calculate when when it will drop below one person a day. That's the sort of thing I meant.

In the past few months between 4 and 6 "Other Supporters"^(*) per day, but only 1 Architect or Engineer every 2-5 days. That's really a trickle from the professional community.

For comparison: Supposing that any professional is in his profession for 40 years=14600 days. This means that, on average, once every 8 or 9 days, a signer leaves the profession for good. Perhaps that is the threshold we are looking for: If the rate at which signers are retiring professionally (which should be about the same at which new professionals join any given guild of the same size) exceeds the rate at which new signatures trickle in, then the petition can be declared dead.



(*) I think we can safely disregard the <15,000 others - these hail from the world-wide community of humans with access to the internet. That would be more than a billion and a half, right? Of that group, Gage has reached less than 0.001% (one in one hundred thousand). Many petitions to save a local pet shelter reach that level in weeks.

 

[Scott Sommers]

In the past few months between 4 and 6 "Other Supporters"^(*) per day, but only 1 Architect or Engineer every 2-5 days. That's really a trickle from the professional community.

For comparison: Supposing that any professional is in his profession for 40 years=14600 days. This means that, on average, once every 8 or 9 days, a signer leaves the profession for good. Perhaps that is the threshold we are looking for: If the rate at which signers are retiring professionally (which should be about the same at which new professionals join any given guild of the same size) exceeds the rate at which new signatures trickle in, then the petition can be declared dead.



(*) I think we can safely disregard the <15,000 others - these hail from the world-wide community of humans with access to the internet. That would be more than a billion and a half, right? Of that group, Gage has reached less than 0.001% (one in one hundred thousand). Many petitions to save a local pet shelter reach that level in weeks.

I'm thinking about this more from the point of view of the petition as a moral force in the conspiracy community. While you and I laugh at Gage's group, it was a really good idea when he started it, and the absolute number is reasonably impressive. It is a larger number than I would have bet on when he first started - although almost all of them are mechanical and electrical engineers. And to malleable minds, it probably seems like a major statement.

But if the number doesn't change for months, it can hardly be said to be a growing force in the profession. Even Gage will have to concede that, if the number of new members is 1 a month and there are no new AEs. If he's stuck on say 1800 for what seems like forever, it will appear pretty much that that's all the AEs in the USA he can get and he better start collecting signatures in Iran.

As it is now, almost all the new AEs are moving toward retirement. I wonder how many of the those that you can't identify anymore have died. And if this is the case, there'll come a time when the number of dying members outnumbers the new signatures he can collect.

 

[LSSBB]

As it is now, almost all the new AEs are moving toward retirement. I wonder how many of the those that you can't identify anymore have died. And if this is the case, there'll come a time when the number of dying members outnumbers the new signatures he can collect.

...or changed their minds since originally signing. Or really agree there was a Controlled Demolition, or just that a "new investigation" is in order.

 

[Scott Sommers]

...or changed their minds since originally signing. Or really agree there was a Controlled Demolition, or just that a "new investigation" is in order.

Or even forgotten they ever believed this - the same as all those Hollywood Democrats you never hear a peep from anymore.

 

[Oystein]

Short update, since the Fundraiser for the Canada-Tour will end tomorrow:

Update at the end of the month:

1. Architects & Engineers

feb 28: 1671
mar 31: 1,678
...
2. Other Supporters:

feb 28: 14,439
mar 31: 14,555
...
4. Fundraiser "Eleven-City Canada Tour"

Mar 31: Raised $975 of the target $3,200 (30%), with 22 contributions ($44.32 per contribution, $34.82 per day). Started mar 03, ends apr 08. At this pace, with 8 days to go, they'll end up 61% short of their target.
...

A&E:
mar 31: 1,678
apr 07: 1,681

OS:
mar 31: 14,555
apr 07: 14,575

Fundraiser "Eleven-City Canada Tour":
mar 31: Raised $975 of the target $3,200 (30%), with 22 contributions, ends apr 08
apr 07: Raised $1.230 of the target $3,200 (38%), with 27 contributions, ends apr 08

 

[Scott Sommers]

I don't mean to add to your already amazing work, but how much does this work out per new member?

That's $2205
and 23 new members
that's $95.83/new member

every new member costs 2.16 time every contribution

presuming that Gage is touring Canada because the USA is drying up as well of idiots for him to talk to, I can't see how the Canada tour can sustain him, unless he can find a new source of money.

When I was a youth, the Canadian Communist Party - Marxist-Leninist teamed up with Albania as a source of ideological fervor. Gage could team up with Iran. His attempt to suckle with NOI hasn't seemed to damage the excitement for his message among those already energized by him - although he did seem quite concerned about keeping this secret. And this may be a true source of the elusive cognitive dissonance among Truthers that we have all been so keenly looking for. It could be that there is a sizable number of Americans willing to donate to a pro-Iran lobby group headed by Dick Gage.

I just can't see any other way for him to get money if he wants to stay doing this.

 

[ozeco41]

...It could be that there is a sizable number of Americans willing to donate to a pro-Iran lobby group headed by Dick Gage.

And if he took that step even his followers who fool themselves that he is a "nice guy" to have as a friend would have to face the reality.

From a cynical purely commercial perspective it would be a desperation play to squeeze the last few dollars out of the market.

However, second thoughts, it might not be "last few" if he went for it seriously - put brain in gear before posting eco

 

[Scott Sommers]

And if he took that step even his followers who fool themselves that he is a "nice guy" to have as a friend would have to face the reality.

From a cynical purely commercial perspective it would be a desperation play to squeeze the last few dollars out of the market.

However, second thoughts, it might not be "last few" if he went for it seriously

I'm not so sure. I wrote someone whose name I forget about his dealings with NOI. She was a candidate for the Constitution Party which is a christian shariah party that believes in making the Constitution comparable with the Bible. She just blew it off like it was nothing. I think those guys who deal with him now are so stigmatized among their friends and family, they can't go back just because Gage is a bad man.

 

[Oystein]

Scott, it's a fun game, relating numbers to each other, huh? Yeah, that dwindling return on investment.

I am not sure the NoI stunt hasn't damaged him. He lost a couple of key assistants, and since that fiasco, numbers have plummeted to an all-time low. The Canada tour is nothing short of pathetic. Can't wait for the stats for all stops. Would you think he drew more than 50 in Saskatoon, Moncton, Halifax or French-speaking Montreal? I'd bet against it! These people want to change world politics as we know it? Hardly. Gage is working day in day out for a living with admirable discipline. That's all. Oh, and abusing the voluneer effort of a handful disciples.


eco, I am not sure Iran is such a big problem for this political fringe. Enemy of my enemy etc.