Is Mittens now unstoppable?

dudalb said:
Yeah, Mittens is now a lock for the nomination.
Now the question becomes can he move back to the center enough to get the moderate vote without alienating the right wing of the party.
The VEEP choice will be interesting. He has to throw a bone to the right wing of the party, but not scare aware the moderate voters.He cannot afford a Sarah Palin scenario.
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Hey, maybe he'll pick Michele Bachmann to get the conservative vote!
 
There's still a little fun to be had in the Republican race. Pennsylvania is coming up in 2 weeks and a Santorum defeat there will be very entertaining. If he can't even carry his home state he'll have to drop out, right? But then his massive ego will tell him to push on. Watch the sharks rip into him then.

Is Pennsylvania a winner-take-all state?
 
RenaissanceBiker said:
There's still a little fun to be had in the Republican race. Pennsylvania is coming up in 2 weeks and a Santorum defeat there will be very entertaining. If he can't even carry his home state he'll have to drop out, right? But then his massive ego will tell him to push on. Watch the sharks rip into him then.

Is Pennsylvania a winner-take-all state?
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The Pennsylvania primary is listed as "direct election." This apparently means that it's the delegates themselves who are elected. Though people will be voting for the four candidates, but those delegates are officially not pledged and can vote for whomever they choose at the convention.

The main importance of Pennsylvania to Santorum's campaign is that, if he loses in his home state, it will be a crushing blow to his perceived viability as a candidate.
 
TimCallahan said:
It appears that Mittens has taken the Maryland and Washington, D.C. primaries, and is on his way to win the Wisconsin primary. Hence, the delegate count is now:

Romney 663
Santorum 256
Gingrich 140
Paul 67

. . . (snip) . . .
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The actual delegate count is a bit different from what I listed above:

Romney 652
Santorum 269
Gingrich 140
Paul 67

Still, Mittens seem to be headed for a lock on the nomination.
 
RenaissanceBiker said:
There's still a little fun to be had in the Republican race. Pennsylvania is coming up in 2 weeks and a Santorum defeat there will be very entertaining. If he can't even carry his home state he'll have to drop out, right? But then his massive ego will tell him to push on. Watch the sharks rip into him then.

Is Pennsylvania a winner-take-all state?
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You can say the same about Newt but I think that Newt knows he can't win and is staying in the race because he loves the spotlight so much,whereas I get the impression that Santorum is under the delusion he can somehow pull it out at the convention.

ANother question: Will some of the crazy wing of the GOP be so upset at Mittens getting the nod that they might pull out and run a third party candidate?
They have Zero chance of winning but a very good chance of grabbing 5 to 6% of the vote away from Romney in November,and that would be fatal to the GOP.
 
John McCain ,the leader emeritus of the GOP,tells Santorum to quit. Santorum won't,but it is another sign that the fat lady aria for Rick has begun.....
 
Intrade: Republican Nomination Scoreboard

This scoreboard shows the up-to-the-minute probability of victory for each candidate fighting for the Republican Presidential nomination

Romney: 95.3%
Santorum: 0.7%
Newt Gingrich: 0.3%
Ron Paul: 0.8%

I'm starting to think Romney is unstoppable.
 
RandFan said:
This scoreboard shows the up-to-the-minute probability of victory for each candidate fighting for the Republican Presidential nomination

Romney: 95.3%
Santorum: 0.7%
Newt Gingrich: 0.3%
Ron Paul: 0.8%

I'm starting to think Romney is unstoppable.
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I don't know, I did some quick math, it's not 100%.

;)
 
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So now the VEEPstakes begins.
Rubio is making noises that he does not want it;No comments from Christie.
I disagree that Rand Paul is a serious possiblity;too much of a loose cannon I think.
 
TimCallahan said:
Aw, mom! Jeez, I never git to have any fun.
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I just realized that my #274 was intended to the the same thing as your post. I am not in a position to tell other people to stop it.


.........
ETA: although to be fair Mrs. Bachmann is around 72 to 1 for the Republican nod.
Stranger things have happened.
 
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TimCallahan said:
It appears that Mittens has taken the Maryland and Washington, D.C. primaries, and is on his way to win the Wisconsin primary. Hence, the delegate count is now:

Romney 663
Santorum 256
Gingrich 140
Paul 67

The rest of the April primaries are as follows:

April 21

Missouri 52 delegates Non-Binding Caucus

April 24

New York 95 delegates - Proportional Primary
Pennsylvania 72 - Direct Election
Connecticut 28 - Hybrid Primary
Rhode Island 19 - Proportional Primary
Delaware 17 - Winner Take All Primary

Since Missouri is a non-binding caucus, it's of less importance than the others. I suspect Santorum may be able to blunt Mitt's gains by taking some of the New York delegates , and perhaps, as a native son, all of Pennsylvania's.

In May, Santorum should be able to gain a bit on Mittens. On May 8, Indiana and wet Virginia may give him 77 delegates, while on May 15 he could win a few in Oregon. On May 22 he could pick up most of Kentucky's 45 delegates and most of Arkansas' 36. On May 29, assuming it doesn't support Ron Paul as a native son, Texas could give most of its 155 delegates to Santorum

Indiana May 8 -- 46 delegates - - - - Hybrid Primary/Caucus1
West Virginia May 8 31 - - - - Direct Election
Nebraska May 15 -- 35 delegates - - - - Non-Binding Primary
Oregon May 15 28 - - - - Proportional Primary
Kentucky May 22 45 - - - - Proportional Primary
Arkansas May 22 36 - - - - Proportional Primary
Texas May 29 155 - - - - Proportional Primary

All of this means that Romney will maintain his substantial lead, but probably won't hit the magic number in May. That leaves June. On June 5, in winner-take-all primaries, California (172 delegates) and New Jersey (50 delegates) should give Mittens 222 delegates. Added to the 663 delegates he already has, these would give him 885. Added to those he will have already picked up in New York, he may well have the magic number by the time of the convention.
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Pennsylvania is a popularity contest. Delegates is another thing. Santorum might get the attaboys and loose all the delegates to Romney.
 
MaGZ said:
Pennsylvania is a popularity contest. Delegates is another thing. Santorum might get the attaboys and loose all the delegates to Romney.
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He may not even get attaboys. Polls show Romney leading in Pennsylvania.
 
RandFan said:
This scoreboard shows the up-to-the-minute probability of victory for each candidate fighting for the Republican Presidential nomination

Romney: 95.3%
Santorum: 0.7%
Newt Gingrich: 0.3%
Ron Paul: 0.8%

I'm starting to think Romney is unstoppable.
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Paul is rated as higher than Gingrich? That's gotta hurt Gingrich's ego. (Assuming that it can be harmed.)
 
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