I don't follow what you are saying here, so let me restate what the model does and doesn't do.No (it's more complicated than that I'll get to that later), but let's accept your premise for one moment.
Error #1: Let's assume an employer purchased a BC plan without sterilization as an option? You are saying that we would have to make up sterilization figures on the one side to compare to non-sterilization on the other? Nonsense. Apples to oranges.
First the model purports to show a comparison of the net cost of a health plan that offers contraception vs a plan that doesn't offer contraception coverage. In fact it doesn't do that. It compares a plan with full contraception coverage to a plan that only offers sterilization. If an employer only had those two plans available to choose from, they'd be better off going with the plan that offers full contraception coverage.
Their average cost per employee would be $562 for full coverage vs $659 for a plan that only offers sterilization. A savings of $97 per employee.
If instead they had an option to go with a plan that offered no contraception at all, their cost per employee would be $339. The math to arrive at that isn't complicated and I explained how it is derived from the model's own figures.
Right.Error #2: Back to your assumption. Sterilization prevents pregnancies, right?
It depends. Those people that would have had Sterilization done for free would need to choose how they wanted to handle birth control without it. If they all chose to use an Injectable or IUD instead, unintended pregnancies would in fact go DOWN, since those methods have fewer unintended pregnancies than sterilization. If they all chose to pay for sterilization there would be no difference. If they chose one of the other methods, unintended pregnancies could go up.If you were to take away the coverage then the cost of unintended pregnancies WOULD go up, right?
Nope. That would be an interesting study. The point is that people will take what's free, and if it's not free, they don't just throw up their hands and say, "I guess we have to fill the house with kids now!". They make other choices and find other ways to fund their birth control.Did you factor those figures?
You thought without free sterilization, people become proliferate breeders?You thought you would get a free benefit?