That's an interesting view of the development of machine intelligence. It postulates that each stage of consciousness has been claimed to be impossible for machines, but they are getting through them one by one. First complex calculation, then chess, and soon they'll be able to do all the stuff now reserved for human beings. The people who've had doubts about this were proved wrong before, and will be proved wrong again.
I wonder who these people are who cast doubt on the ability of machines to carry out complex calculations.
Surely not Pascal or Leibnitz. Machines have been used to aid calculation for hundreds of years. It's precisely what machines are good at. However, their usefulness in arithmetic is not matched with corresponding ability in mathematics, where their impact remains limited. The computer remains just a big abacus in mathematics, occasionally used for tedious repetitive work but providing little insight.
Who thought that chess would be impossible for a machine to play?
The Mechanical Turk convinced people that a clockwork machine could play to a high standard back in the 1770's. It seems that they tended to over-estimate what a machine could do. In fact, the formal rule-based environment of chess was instantly recognised as ideal for computers. Weiner wrote a suggested strategy for computer chess back in 1948. The
first computer chess program was written in 1957. That makes the field at least as old as I am.
So what are these continual breakthroughs in the area of consciousness? First calculations, then computer chess - now what? Faster calculations? Better chess programs?
Computer Go?
What's noteworthy is that computers have gotten better and better at the things that computers are good at - but they've remained resolutely poor at the things that they were always bad at. We're coming up to the fiftieth anniversary of
ELIZA. Is there a convincing bot out there which can carry on a brief conversation on Twitter, on any topic, and sound human - or indeed, as if any kind of conversation is going on?
Back in the 1970's, the real soon now view of machine intelligence was credible. I remember reading about the
Japanese Fifth Generation Project that was going to change the world. It ended up giving us slightly more efficient washing machines.