Tomblvd
Muse
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2007
- Messages
- 821
By the way, in case you haven't the time to dig into the flu vaccine efficacy business; as a general rule of thumb, clinicians believe that 60%, 70% maybe, of healthy adults under 65 years of age will develop antibodies against INFLUENZA upon vaccination. However, for various and sundry reasons, vaccines are far less CLINICALLY efficacious. 60% may develop antibody by way of a vaccine's promptings, but even if vaccination evokes a vigorous antibody response, the individual may nevertheless still acquire an infection, and a very serious one at that. This, despite their having received modern state of the art CDC approved and encouraged prophylactic treatment.
The subject is rather controversial, but just by way of giving the group a reasonable ballpark figure, perhaps half or so of those vaccinated and developing antibodies as a consequence of that vaccination will be fortunate enough to be protected from clinical illness. So that translates into 30% of all those healthy adults under 65 years of age receiving a vaccination.
In the case of our Apollo astronauts, as they come in sets of 3, if all three were to be vaccinated, it would be unrealistic to view them all as protected from clinical illness by virtue of vaccine administration. One astronaut might find himself immune, two rather unlikely, all three protected very unlikely.
And here the good "doctor" really steps on his "thing".
Note how he is giving the likelyhood of the astronauts coming down with Hong Kong flu. However, what the good "doctor" is doing here is only considering the immunity conferred by the vaccine. He completely forgets the fact that only a relatively small percentage of people will come down with the virus even if exposed.
Patrick, the Hong Kong flu, IIRC, only had an infection rate of fifteen percent!!!
That is prior to any vaccine. Kinda throws all those numbers you googled out the window, huh?
How could a real doctor actually think a virus had a 100% transmission rate?
Another EPIC FAIL Patrick.