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Cont: UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

Krikkiter,

Thanks for that. So the last operational YB-49 was also in the area during the time period, but according to the article in storage. So we've gone from it being probably a WB-49, to that being impossible because they were all supposedly destroyed, to an operational one in the area, but in storage ... and we have a report of a "large flying wing type aircraft" sighted in the area ... hmmm ... interesting ... it must have been a cloud.

No. Operational is not the same as in storage.
Other than in your own mind, it's never likely been a YB-49.
While the object was described as a "flying wing" by Kelly Johnson, he also described it as an elliptical planform with an aspect ratio in the neighborhood of seven to ten. This would completely rule out the YB-49, which was a swept, trapezoidal tapered wing.
Curiously, Kelly Johnson's description is almost an exact match for the traveling lenticular wave that I saw out over El Mirage, though in my viewing circumstances, the cloud appeared white.

ETA about the data set:
It's interesting that this particular sighting happened exactly fifty years after Wilbur and Orville's first powered flights at Kitty Hawk.
That's a pretty sparse data set to work up a skew-T, but maybe I'll look at that over the weekend.
The layering does jump right out at you, though. Really strong wave can be formed with a stable layer over an unstable layer.

For those not familiar with lenticular clouds, they're formed when something forces the wind up and then lets it back down again.
When air rises, it expands; as it expands, it cools; as it cools, it can hold less water vapor. If it reaches the dew point temperature, excess water vapor will condense into a cloud. The opposite effects happen as the air descends. So there's a more-or-less stationary cloud formed where the conditions are suitable, with a strong wind blowing through it, not moving the cloud.
A stratified atmosphere can make the edges where water vapor condenses and evaporates visually very sharp.
 
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Only none of the witnesses describe such a thing [ A B-52 ] or even hint at it and the sums (real sums not your imagined ones) don't add up.


So what? there were thoughts about other aircraft besides a wing or a B-52. Quote:

  • "My first thought is that it was a large airplane, possibly a C-124"
  • "The object appeared as a thin black line, giving a first impression of a B-36 type airplane heading straight toward us and silhouetted against a bright background.
  • "Our attention was drawn to what looked like a large airplane off to our right ( north - west ).
All the witnesses rejected the cloud theory in favor a large airplane ... over a base with a runway ... in a region with several other airports including military contractors ... that developed airplanes like the one described ... but no, you think experienced airmen who studied it firsthand for several minutes were all fooled by a cloud illusion that wouldn't even fool anyone here ... or would it? Like I've said before I've seen dozens and dozens of lenticular clouds ... not once did I mistake them for an aircraft, even for a moment. How about you? I've provided pictures of aircraft that existed and either looked exactly like or close enough to what was described to account for it. Show me a picture of a cloud that looks like a perfect flying wing.

All that being said ... I don't deny a cloud could conceivably account for it anyway. But then again I'm not committed to any one answer ... just the best one.
 
So what? there were thoughts about other aircraft besides a wing or a B-52. Quote:

  • "My first thought is that it was a large airplane, possibly a C-124"
  • "The object appeared as a thin black line, giving a first impression of a B-36 type airplane heading straight toward us and silhouetted against a bright background.
  • "Our attention was drawn to what looked like a large airplane off to our right ( north - west ).


Apparently certain words give you trouble, so I've done what I can to help.


<tanty>

All that being said ... I don't deny a cloud could conceivably account for it anyway. But then again I'm not committed to any one answer ... just the best one.


That woud be the one that was arrived at without, or rather in spite of, your contributions.

It makes one wonder why you bought into the discussion at all.
 
Apparently certain words give you trouble, so I've done what I can to help.


[Akhenaten]... You appear to have the same problem ... I'll return the favor.
Edited by kmortis: 
Do not alter other poster's usernames for purposes of insult or ridicule.


  • I was looking at the sunset through a large plateglass window, when I noticed above a mountain to the west what I first thought to be a black cloud ...
  • After watching it for a few minutes we decided that it wasn’t a cloud but some kind of object. It had a definite shape which appeared to me like a crescent. Others on board described it as a huge flying wing.
  • Wimmer’s first impression was that it was a small cloud. After studying for several minutes, though, I deduced that it was not a cloud ..."
  • The clouds were coming onshore, in a direction of travel opposite to that of the object.
 
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So what? there were thoughts about other aircraft besides a wing or a B-52. Quote:

  • "My first thought is that it was a large airplane, possibly a C-124"


The first time I drove out west in the '70s we were still tens of miles away from the Rocky Mountains, and my first thought when I saw the snow capped mountains from a distance was that I was seeing clouds. So much for the "first thought" argument. You failed.

  • "The object appeared as a thin black line, giving a first impression of a B-36 type airplane heading straight toward us and silhouetted against a bright background.


Well there's that first impression failure again. But a thin black line? Did you not look at the model I made of what Kelly Johnson might have seen after he got the binoculars? That is a thin black line. Please describe any detail that might help identify it more specifically as some sort of plane. Oh, that's right, you can't. You failed again.

  • "Our attention was drawn to what looked like a large airplane off to our right ( north - west ).


My attention has been drawn to what looked like a common American Turkey Vulture. It turned out to be a plane. As a highly experienced observer, an expert observer in fact, not just of huge things in the sky but of very, very small things, things with minute details which are critical in identifying them, I will say this: Since the above comment contains the phrase, "what looked like," it's essentially worthless for trying to support your conclusion that they saw some sort of plane. You failed once more. Three for three.

All the witnesses rejected the cloud theory in favor a large airplane ...


No. They didn't reject it in favor of a large airplane. Your dishonest attempt to manipulate their position to match your preconceived conclusion is noted. And resulted in another failure.

[...] over a base with a runway ...


No. Over the Pacific Ocean. Another dishonest effort to change reality, and one more failure.

in a region with several other airports including military contractors ... that developed airplanes like the one described ... but no, you think experienced airmen who studied it firsthand for several minutes were all fooled by a cloud illusion that wouldn't even fool anyone here ...


A cloud is not an illusion despite your continued and dishonest proclamations to that effect. This thing about your arguments failing is pretty consistent, isn't it?

[...] or would it?


Illusions fool people all the time. I could fool you with a penny and a dime, make them appear to magically switch places not more than 18 inches from your eyes, with my sleeves rolled up. Been doing it since I was about 10 years old. So yes, the guys who saw the UFO from the plane could have easily been fooled. But it most certainly was not a "cloud illusion" as you put it, because a cloud isn't an illusion.

Like I've said before I've seen dozens and dozens of lenticular clouds ... not once did I mistake them for an aircraft, even for a moment.


First of all, I don't think anyone believes you actually saw what you claim to have seen. You claim to have had an encounter with a giant talking rabbit. And just how many flying wings or B-52s have you seen flying over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of California 15 minutes after sunset from a plane flying at about 18,000 feet? Oh, none? Then your argument above is another failure.

How about you? I've provided pictures of aircraft that existed and either looked exactly like or close enough to what was described to account for it. Show me a picture of a cloud that looks like a perfect flying wing.


Show us objective evidence that any of the alleged witnesses believed it looked like a perfect flying wing... or admit that your above comment is another dishonest attempt to attribute a position to the witnesses, one which they didn't actually have. My money says you'll do neither. Oh, and you've failed again.

All that being said ... I don't deny a cloud could conceivably account for it anyway. But then again I'm not committed to any one answer ... just the best one.


The best answer at this point, when using skepticism and the scientific method, seems to be a lenticular cloud. But it remains, of course, a UFO. You might want to reconsider your "best" answer being some sort of plane, since it seems to have been determined by applying the WAG, lie, make up crap, rationalize, justify, argument from incredulity, argument from ignorance, clutch, grope, post any old Wiki picture and hope for the best, "ufology" method. Re-read this post and note how your method has met with pretty close to 100% failure. And no, your failure is still not the skeptics' fault. It's the fault of your method.
 
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I am just curious if it may give information that it was possible a lenticular cloud could form. I am not an expert on meteorology and I was hoping the collective brain trust might be able to evaluate the data. I did notice that the winds below 13,000 feet were blowing from the WSW (203 degrees azimuth) and starting around 14,000-15,000 feet they were blowing from the WNW (293 degrees). That is a 90 degree shift and might give a shear effect that could produce clouds of this type.
However, in this instance, the "cloud" (for the sake of argument - I am not identifying it as such) was isolated by itself. So, if it were a cloud, it would have been something localized. Once the cloud drifted from the area where the conditions were ideal, it disappeared. In that case, the data would not be very helpful unless the radiosonde happened to fly into this particular region at the right altitude.


Maybe ... but every lenticular I've seen that moves any distance has changed shape and become fuzzy around the edges, and not disappeared by getting smaller, but by thinning out into haze or layers or merging with other clouds.

I'm curious, like I've said before, I've seen dozens and dozens of lenticular clouds and not once ever thought they were aircraft or UFOs. How about you? Do you honestly believe a cloud would fool you personally into being sure after several minutes of study ... with binoculars ... that you were looking at a distinct flying object that was not a cloud?
 
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The first time I drove out west in the '70s we were still tens of miles away from the Rocky Mountains, and my first thought when I saw the snow capped mountains from a distance was that I was seeing clouds. So much for the "first thought" argument. You failed.


GeeMack ...

Like I pointed out to [Akhenaten]... there were first impressions it was a cloud too ... but then they studied it and realized it wasn't, so based on your argument ... you fail too. So now what? How much study did it take you to realize you were looking at mountains and not clouds?
Edited by kmortis: 
Do not alter other poster's usernames for purposes of insult or ridicule


Ufology, there has already been a general warning about this, but here's a personal one for you. The practice of altering another's username for insult or ridicule is frowned upon in these fora. Please refrain from this practice in the future.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: kmortis
 
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I'm curious, like I've said before, I've seen dozens and dozens of lenticular clouds [...]


And like I've said before, you claim to have had an encounter with a giant talking rabbit. Your claims are suspect. You have no credibility.

[...] and not once ever thought they were aircraft or UFOs. How about you? Do you honestly believe a cloud would fool you personally into being sure after several minutes of study ... with binoculars ... that you were looking at a distinct flying object that was not a cloud?


Nobody was sure. That's why it's still a UFO.
 
I'm curious, like I've said before, I've seen dozens and dozens of lenticular clouds and not once ever thought they were aircraft or UFOs. How about you? Do you honestly believe a cloud would fool you personally into being sure after several minutes of study ... with binoculars ... that you were looking at a distinct flying object that was not a cloud?

Why should anyone here believe you?

Are you saying that NONE OF THESE look like a flying wing?
http://www.crystalinks.com/lenticular.html

Not even THIS ONE?
lenticularmtshasta809.jpg


If that cloud were smaller, or further away, it would be nearly impossible to identify it as a cloud or determine its size or distance from the viewer. In fact, you cannot even tell in this photo how far away that cloud is.

:cool:
 
GeeMack ...

Like I pointed out to [Akhenaten]... there were first impressions it was a cloud too ... but then they studied it and realized it wasn't, so based on your argument ... you fail too. So now what? How much study did it take you to realize you were looking at mountains and not clouds?


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I haven't failed. I provided an example where a first impression was not the correct explanation. Now if I would have persistently tried to support the notion that snow capped mountains were clouds, or that the Turkey Vulture was an airplane, even after there was much better evidence available, then I'd probably make a great "ufologist". I'm a skeptic.

Recall that it's the consistently failed method of "ufology" where first impressions become the conclusion and everything from that point on is a dishonest effort to support that conclusion. As you've demonstrated time and time again, as a method for explaining reality, it is virtually certain to fail.
 
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Although I realise that "the sums not adding up" isn't important to you (as evidenced by your total lack of them on your theory), they are one of the ways in which we can try to determine the information given against what is possible. That's why your theory doesn't work. Because when you do the sums, it's not possible. And your assertions without showing us the numbers, the calculations and how you worked them out are simply baseless.

there were thoughts about other aircraft besides a wing or a B-52. Quote:

  • "My first thought is that it was a large airplane, possibly a C-124"
And the quote continues;

"But after looking more closely, it seemed to look like a large object without wings" (Ware)

I've looked up the specifications for the C-124 and similar planes and can't find any mention of the version they made without wings.


  • "The object appeared as a thin black line, giving a first impression of a B-36 type airplane heading straight toward us and silhouetted against a bright background.
"Heading straight towards us", that means that Johnson would see it crossing his field of view from right to left. And yet he mentions no such thing. Coleman also goes on to say "The object appeared not to move while we progressed with our tests"
I've looked up the specifications of the B-36 and similar planes and can't find any mention of their capability to hover motionless in the sky for even a few seconds, let alone the 10 minutes Coleman reports it being motionless.


  • "Our attention was drawn to what looked like a large airplane off to our right ( north - west ).
This is Ware again, who then decided the object didn't have wings.



All the witnesses rejected the cloud theory in favor a large airplane
No they didn't.
Johnson concluded: flying saucer.
Ware concluded: large wingless object
Coleman concluded: "the blackness made it impossible to discern anything but the basic outline"
Wimmer concluded: A large object, some distance away.
Thoren concludes: It was "not exactly an illusion" but does at least hint at agreeing with Johnson's flying saucer conclusion.



... over a base with a runway ... in a region with several other airports including military contractors ... that developed airplanes like the one described
Not according to the math calculations of angular size at distance, speed and time to cover distances whilst watching the object "motionless" in the sky.

... but no, you think experienced airmen who studied it firsthand for several minutes were all fooled by a cloud illusion that wouldn't even fool anyone here ... or would it?
Like I already said: The thing about being fooled is that until you find out you've been fooled, there is no way of knowing when or how often you've been fooled.

Like I've said before I've seen dozens and dozens of lenticular clouds ... not once did I mistake them for an aircraft, even for a moment.
But how do you know that you haven't casually looked in the sky and seen what you thought was an aircraft that was really a distant lenticular cloud?

The answer is; you don't BTW, regardless of how much you protest and continue to make such silly statements.

How about you?
I've no idea either.
I know I've seen one lenticular cloud and when I saw it, I immediately recognised it as such. If I've ever been fooled into thinking that a lenticular cloud was a plane, I've no idea, because being fooled leaves you... well... fooled. And only a real fool will assert that he can't be fooled... because in making that statement, he's fooling himself for a start.

I've provided pictures of aircraft that existed and either looked exactly like or close enough to what was described to account for it.
But they don't. We have to make so many unfounded assumptions and ignore the physical impossibility that the numerical calculations show in order to get anywhere near it being an aircraft and that's before we even start with the justificational add ons of smoke trails, banking left, sooper sekrit spy planes and full throttle turns.

Show me a picture of a cloud that looks like a perfect flying wing.
Show me a video of one of these planes hovering motionless for five minutes. What the witnesses described didn't look like a "perfect flying wing" by the way... nor did it act like one.

BTW: I'm not saying it was a cloud, I haven't prematurely finished my research and calculations yet. And even when I do, I probably won't say it was a cloud.

All that being said ... I don't deny a cloud could conceivably account for it anyway. But then again I'm not committed to any one answer ... just the best one.
You haven't done nearly enough research or calculations to know what the best answer may be, and you're hardly likely to either. It's not alien, you're not bothered about identifying it (even though 'alien' means 'unknown' in your world).
 
Yes, the key ideas to the lenticular cloud idea (at least the way i developed it for myself) that allow for misidentification by our excellent witnesses are as follows:

1. Happened at sunset to the west, thus enhancing the silhouette effect.
2. We surmise a very compact cloud, much like in the photo posted earlier.
3. This cloud was seen from rather far away, allowing the edges to optically seem much more defined, as I demonstrated in my example above.

All this talk about how theses guys couldn't be fooled, is dumb when the above factors are taken into account. Like many of vagaries of nature, this was a somewhat unusual event that might easily be outside the experience of these guys.

That the shape of the thing appeared roughly the same from 2 different vantage points underlines the stupidity of the Best Evidence account, which portrayed the object as a flying wing....

Best,

Lance
 
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I haven't failed. I provided an example where a first impression was not the correct explanation. Now if I would have persistently tried to support the notion that snow capped mountains were clouds, or that the Turkey Vulture was an airplane, even after there was much better evidence available, then I'd probably make a great "ufologist". I'm a skeptic.

Recall that it's the consistently failed method of "ufology" where first impressions become the conclusion and everything from that point on is a dishonest effort to support that conclusion. As you've demonstrated time and time again, as a method for explaining reality, it is virtually certain to fail.


In that context, then you have not provided a valid comparison because we have insufficient evidence to prove what was actually seen ... no mountain to measure. There are plenty of examples in life where first impressions are correct and there are plenty of examples in life where after some study, they turn out to be wrong. And how frequently by comparison do first impressinons that turn out to be wrong after some study, actually turning out to be right after all? And even if we had those numbers ... where is this argument getting us besides nowhere?
 
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Yes, the key ideas to the lenticular cloud idea (at least the way i developed it for myself) that allow for misidentification by our excellent witnesses are as follows:

1. Happened at sunset to the west, thus enhancing the silhouette effect.
2. We surmise a very compact cloud, much like in the photo posted earlier.
3. This cloud was seen from rather far away, allowing the edges to optically seem much more defined, as I demonstrated in my example above.

All this talk about how theses guys couldn't be fooled, is dumb when the above factors are taken into account. Like many of vagaries of nature, this was a somewhat unusual event that might easily be outside the experience of these guys.

That the shape of the thing appeared roughly the same from 2 different vantage points underlines the stupidity of the Best Evidence account, which portrayed the object as a flying wing....

Best,

Lance


I respectfully disagree. Would a cloud fool you or anyone else here except maybe GeeMack ( he said he was fooled by a mountain top once )? Clouds have never fooled me into thinking I was looking at an airplane. My house faces west and I watch airplanes and clouds daily. I've viewed both through binoculars many times and at many different times of day, including sunset. I've seen so many it would be pointless to guess how many. Yet never once ... including the dozens and dozens of lenticular clouds I've seen have I ever confused one with an aircraft. Now I'm just an average guy ... so why would I think multiple experienced airmen would be less competent than me ... and why would you think you are more competent that they are ... and you weren't even there yourself. Sorry but if they say they considered a cloud and after some study they all ruled it out, then it's just not reasonable to insist it had to be a cloud.

If there was any major error, it's more likely to be in the distances, which I've shown through example can be ( under the right circumstances ) much closer than the other estimates used by proponents of the cloud theory. It is also just more logical from a common sense point of view. For example suppose you are flying and you see another aircraft. Which bit of information is more likely to be in error:

A: The exact distance to the aircraft.
B: That it is actually an aircraft.

If we're being honest we'll admit that it's much more likely that we can be sure we are looking at an aircraft than it is to know the exact distance to it. So if we're close enough to be sure it's some kind of flying craft, then the distance estimates are probably the ones that are off. It doesn't matter if we can make out the exact make and model. Those details aren't even all that relevant to our case. Then add in that this flying craft was seen over a military base with an airport ... really how much more obvious does this need to get?
 
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Show me a picture of a cloud that looks like a perfect flying wing.
Notwithstanding the small detail that none of the witness described the object as "a perfect flying wing" (a point already made by Stray Cat), Mr Ufology, would you be so kind as to tell me what you think the object in this photo looks like.
 
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In that context, then you have not provided a valid comparison because we have insufficient evidence to prove what was actually seen ... no mountain to measure.


It remains unidentified, hence it is, by definition, a UFO.
 
Geeze, what can I say. I showed you an example of how a very compact (but real) lenticular cloud might look at distance. It matches EXACTLY what Johnson drew. The edges get very crisp the further you are away from the object. That you apparently ignore this entire line of reasoning and then imply that I said that my suggested solution is the ONLY possible one shows that you are either not paying attention to my posts (which is understandable in such a long complicated thread but hey., stop it) or you are very stupid.

Best,

Lance
 
Notwithstanding the small detail that none of the witness described the object as "a perfect flying wing" (a point already made by Stray Cat), [Mr. Ufology] would you be so kind as to tell me what you think the object in this photo looks like.
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That isn't a relevant argument. The word aircraft implies precision. We rarely say, "I saw a perfect airplane fly by." The object was first thought to be either a cloud or an airplane, and then after studying it for several minutes they all concluded that it was not a cloud, but an object flying in the vicinity of a military base with an airport. The most logical answer is therefore obvious.
 
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