The things that make me think that the Police had already hit on Patrick are the following:
1) The claim from the police that they had a series of events that they knew to be true, and then Amanada broke down and confirmed them. If this is correct, they must have already known about Patrick before Amanda implicated him.
With all due respect, PhantomWolf, all you are describing is one of the many investigative possibilities along an investigative tree, which the police would have been stupid not to follow.
If what you are saying is that they didn't follow any other investigative line, then you really DO think they're stupid. I don't.
The point I am making is that there were other, equally likely ("likely" as of 10 pm Nov 5) investigative possibilities that the police would simply have been incompetent if not following as well.
Are you accusing them of being incompetent? I am not.
Sure they had suspicions about everyone one-degree-of-separation from Amanda's front door key. That would include Lumumba.
The point is - where did Lumumba
rank in that suspicion as of 10 am, Nov 5th? My feeling is very low, and I still have not seen actual evidence to suggest otherwise.
That Knox responded the way she did with her imaginings early the next morning becomes for the police the equivalent of.....
.... a gambler at a dice table yelling, "C'mon eleven, c'mon eleven, c'mon eleven," and gets the beautiful blonde next to him to blow on the dice. He then rolls it and, eureka!, it's an eleven! He turns to the beautiful girl and says, "I told you it would be an eleven!"
With all due respect, your scenario, while probably one of the investigative lines assigned to someone, was simply one of the lesser ones.
Of course they told Amanda they had evidence against Lumumba. They'd also told Amanda that Raffaele was no longer supporting her "alibi". Both statements were bollocks - shots in the dark hoping that it could shake something out of Knox. Then they stumble on the SMS text - or they may even have had it up their sleeve.... really doesn't matter.
Point is, they thought she was withholding something - a sentiment that continues to this day with the likes of Barbie Nadeau..... even if you don't think she participated in the murder, there are still people stuck where the police were stuck back on Nov 5th.
They probably thought Romanelli was withholding a lot of stuff, too. First on that list was, "Why'd you trespass into a crime scene to steal your own computer? Are you not a lawyer?" I bet she clammed up about that one on lawyer's advice.
I think it can be stated this way - police suspected that EITHER Romanelli OR Knox were withholding something, because that was the investigative line (then) that seemed to be going somewhere. If they could only find out "what", maybe a slap on the back of the head would help. They certainly would not have slapped Romanelli with her lawyer there.
The other investigative line (Meredith met someone the night before who she'd asked back on the 1st) was going nowhere. At least nowhere until Guede entered the picture.
(Please note - I think that investigative line goes nowhere, too.)
The point being that the cops could not beat the presumed-knowledge out of Romanelli, she had lawyered up - appropriately so. If she hadn't she could have been lumped in with Knox and Sollecito and Lumumba. That's a chilling thought, but at least the tabloids would have had TWO women forcing sex on a third woman! That would have guaranteed triple the newsstand sales.
That they went after Knox the way they did pre-1:45 am was not based on anything other than, "Gee.... we'd better roll an 11, or we're going home and Perugia will explode."
The proof of this - whether Mignini and Giobbi were watching at the time is immaterial - the proof is their reaction to Knox imagining herself at the scene. They'd NEVER in a million years imagined that!, but now they had to deal with it - They had to get PM Mignini in to get a lawyerly draft of another memorandum to fix the mess that the first memorandum presented them with.
And Mignini had to make the new one look "spontaneous". So Mignini lies about "only being a notary."
With all respect, all you're doing is describing one investigative line out of many in that pre-Nov 6 period. The cops would simply have been incompetent NOT to suspect everyone within arm's reach of Knox's front door key.
Their incompetence actually comes at the point where they should have realized that the complete implausibility of Knox's imaginings, actually proved that neither Knox nor Lumumba could have been involved. They should have waited until the "party the night before" investigative line itself suddenly heated up again when Rudy was found.
But back on the 6th, that Mignini then set out to frame Knox with this, is the real story here. They were hoping to roll an 11, and boy did they EVER roll an 11. Mignini had to engineer a new memorandum to show, "See I told you I'd roll an 11."
That people to this day think that "Knox knows something she's not revealing" is further proof how wrong the police got things, when the "something" turned out to be:
1) Lumumba
2) her at the scene
People are redoing what the police got wrong. At best, what Knox could be withholding is that she'd given Guede the key.
At best. But then again, why would Rudy then need to break in through Filomena's window? Ergo, Knox could have given the key to one of 1000 people, but it wasn't Rudy she gave it to.
Why is this hard to fathom?